DocBauer

Sounds like a blast! One question, are you running each game a single time through the simulation? Or are you running it multiple times and taking the delta?

Great question. I will attempt to answer. First of all, while I enjoy the discussion, we have a very open-ended discussion here, IMO. There are countless ways to grade and measure in the game of baseball, including WAR, fWAR, OPS, OPS+, etc. I don't pretend to understand them all, and I know here at TD and in the baseball community debates range as best ways to measure/rank. That being said, with all due respect to HOF greats like Carew and Killibrew, trying to compare them as "hitters" is very vague and open as they are completely different types of hitters/ballplayers. Both great, but very, very different types of players. Now, I wouldn't put Knoblauch in the first 5 but I'd have to consider him strongly for my second 5 based on 7yr with the Twins in which his quad slash line was: .304/ .390/ .418/ .808. Those are outstanding numbers, even though his total OPS is dragged down a bit by having pop but not great power. He also had 276SB in his 7yrs, scored 100+ R 4 times, 80+ twice and 78 his rookie season. (4uns, like RBI, can be somewhat subjective in value, but they still have value and the player still performed at such a level to allow those numbers to happen). So to me, when I look at those numbers, that production, over 7yrs I've got him as a pretty special player for an extended period of time.

I was confused at first as I took the lead too seriously and literally thought best HITTER. And then I saw Killibrew instead of Knoblauch and realised the direction we were headed. This is like a 5 headed Twins Mt Rushmore, and I know I'm quibbling here, but any sort of order is hard to argue with when you have the likes of Carew and Killibrew on the list. One can't match the other for their hitting and the other can't match power and production. Second 10 would have to include Hrbek, Morneau, Allison and Knoblauch. Not sure who my 5th would be. Interesting, no matter how deep, talented and relatively young our current Twins are, 10+yrs from now, is Sano the only one who gets mentioned in an article like this?

Like everyone else I also hope your pessimism is wrong. Just tossing out a couplethings I've heard and learned today: 1] Who knows how accurate these reports are, but it has been reported that taking the preventative steps now in our country have provided positive results elsewhere to slow/diminish the Corona virus. Let's hope this is true, and NOT just for sports. 2] While many see Nebraska/Lincoln/Omaha as only fly-over territory, we have an AMAZING sports history and fan base. We also have award winning sports talk radio and a couple of the most respected hospitals in the country. Dr. Mark Rupp, a well respected expert in this area here in Omaha at UNMC answered questions pertaining to the Corona virus. While there was no way Dr. Rupp could offer up anything remotely approaching guarantees/answers or overt optimism, he did say a few things that resonated. 1] He stated that the Covid-19 virus...paraphrasing only here...was rather weak and offered little resistance to general things like alcohol/bleach wipes and the such. In other words, good, normal care and cleaning makes it overt. 2] There is a general, hopeful, belief that like most viruses, once the general heat and humidity climb, this virus should also begin to die out. Viruses exist year round, which he was quick to remind, but there is absolutely a "season" for them. And with Spring not too far off, Mother Nature could provide some assistance. Probably the MOST IMPORTANT THING he talked about was a 7+3 rule. And I wish/hope EVERYONE here at the TD family would read and share this information. It's very simple: If you have the Corona virus, or even get sick and wonder if you might, (remember, there are other bugs out there as well), you should remain isolated for a minimum of 7 days, with 3 days fever free and just feeling generally better before you can feel safe to face the world again. If everyone just bunkers down and follows basic rules, and Mother Nature cooperates, a month or two from now, life will hopefully begin to return to normal. That's just me talking. With a little luck, we might even get in half a baseball season. My guess is no fans, playing games in AZ and FL to begin, and moving to actual ML parks come late summer. Everyone be well!

Quick comment: I place little stock in Twitter comments from him as we should all know and allow how off the cuff things like this are. Sometimes such things have a different intended meaning but are interpreted poorly. Also, emotions can make people say or type something they regret later. No excuse, just a perspective. Addressing your 3 points in reverse order: 3] Thorpe could absolutely be included in a deal to help the parent club. I think an awful lot of teams would be interested in a 24yo LHP with good stuff and a very good milb track record who showed flashes in SSS in his ML debut. Despite various reports as to how much the Twins like him, he could be moved in the right deal. Same with Rooker, Larnach, etc. 2] Not sure there is much to say here. At ANY time, a quality arm could be brought up to help in the rotation OR the pen. FWIW though, I've felt for some time if the rotation just didn't work out he could be a neck of a bullpen piece. 3] To say Thorpe has something left to prove at the AAA level would be somewhat accurate, though not exact. His numbers there over 24 appearances and parts of 2 seasons are pretty good. And as you pointed out, he is still only 24yo. Experience wise, he's a 22yo who has already reached the ML level. The Twins seem to really like him and believe in him. And even of you have a couple of really nice arms ranked higher behind him as prospects, you can't dismiss his talent/potential/milb success. I would like to believe that any conversation that took place between he and the Twins when he was sent down included something like: "We really like you and believe in you and your future with the club. But the time isn't right now as we're ramping up for the season. Get yourself ramped up, do what you do, kick ass, and you'll be up again. Hopefully for good."

I can't comment on Harmon or Bert as even at 54yo, and a Twins fan since about 5yo, I simply don't have the recollection of those guys being TWINS. And while I was aware, as a youngster, of various Twins traded or lost to new-found FA, it didn't really register in my brain back then. Tori hurt a LOT! And I recall writing a piece here on TD a couple years ago how his loss was a domino effect that really hurt the Twins in various ways from rushed promotions to even being part of the Santana trade, etc. Wish theee was an easy way to find it. I remember thinking it was semi-smart, LOL. Smalley being traded hurt as he was one of my favorites as a kid. Butch hurt too. Mourneau and Cuddy were also very painful.

I don't really want to go down this rabbit hole again, but the answer would be no. A 200G season is a straw-man arguement at this point, and not reflective of my previous statements, nor those of the OP. HOWEVER, should MLB, for whatever reason, suddenly change formats and play a 200G season, I'm sure the penalties for similar future transgressions would amount to 100G, or half the season. That penalty would cover either a season, or parts of 2 seasons. Speaking hypothetically, should that change happen mid-penalty for a player, said player should not face additional time as his suspension was based on the corresponding season length at the time of "sentence". And this comes right back around to my thoughts and those in the OP; Pineda, in this case, could/should have his games missed in a shortened season adjusted to reflect the percentage of games missed, which was the original intent of the suspension. If...and I sure hope this doesn't happen...baseball was closed down for the entire 2020 year and resumed in 2021 with a full slate, the arguement could be made that all penalties, Pineda's included carry out fully based on a new 162G season.

At this point, I'd leave Hendricks out of the equation simply because he's been gone so long. In the long run, the Twins may win the Pressly deal, or at least break even. But I never liked the deal then as I felt the Twins would contend in 2019. I know some will jump on me for this, but as it turned out, I don't know you can say they really missed him with the way Duffey and May got it together. But yeah, I would have liked to have him. Anderson I don't get. Any maybe he will end up a 1yr wonder. I there was something about him they didn't like or didn't see. Which seems all the more strange when you remember they've kept Reed despite inconsistent results and no ML time as of yet. All in all, I really like where the pen is now and am very intrigued by a couple arms that seem close.

I guess I don't understand Smeltzer in the rotation vs Dobnak and no way Gearrin is in the pen. Confused on these points. And while it's the game and not you, kinda freaked about the slow starts by Donaldson and Odorizzi. Who wrote the program? A bunch of Cubs fans? Fun stuff though!

Agreeing with you on Pineda and a reduced suspension. His penalty, as are all in this case, is based on a normal 162G season, or as in this case, spread out over a pair of 162G seasons. But percentage of games missed with a abbreviated 2020 skews things. I hope the best for Hill. But I say again considering coming off surgery, his career "norm" of outstanding half seasons I still see him back and ready to go in July. That might be even more so considering the break happening here, as he rehab and ramps up. Dobnak should still have the inside track on the #5 spot. I don't think that changes, for NOW. He seemed to be the deserving frontrunner, and he and everyone else has to stretch out and "re-compete" when activities finally commence.

You know, I think you could almost compare Dobnak to Arraez, despite being a pitcher vs a position player. Arraez, while thought of decently, was never a TOP prospect. But all he did was perform. There was even debate as to whether he should be included on the 40 man last year by some. But his HIT ability and bat control is amazing, as we all have seen. And now he's a darling, and well deserved. Dobnak, though with less time in the system, does nothing but perform as well. He doesn't throw 96 or have a wipe out slider, etc, but be performs and even dominates. When he gets his shot, he does nothing but impress, though granted it was in a smaller SS. Dobnak just seems to knkw how to pitch, how to get outs, Stroman comparison or not. Do we not embrace his potential because he doesn't have the BIG ARM? Or are we just jaded from the Twins NOT producing much from the system for several years now?

So the best way to play him seems to be for the infielders to play way back, and the OF to play way in. No problem! You can't stop Arraez, you can only hope to contain him! Lol But seriously, I firmly believe theee is such a thing as "hit tool" which is often glossed over when we talk about things like power and speed and OB, combined with SO numbers and launch angle. (Less and less we talk about speed, which I think is sad). While it is absolutely hyperbole to speak of a young player like Arraez in comparison to Gwynn, or Boggs, or whoever, it's just really hard to look at his milb track record, and what he did last season, and his approach at the plate, and NOT compare him! Again, hyperbole...perhaps...but as Jimbo and Torv mentioned above you could absolutely watch Arraez at the plate scanning the defense and just deciding where he wanted to place the ball. And he did so at an amazing clip, while also maintaining plate discipline. He is just so much fun to watch.

I think it's safe to say RF is set and in very good hands for the next few years. We have no idea if everyone will turn out, or if everyone is actually kept, but Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker will be looking at LF/1B/DH/4th OF for the time being. And that's a very nice problem to have. What I just can't understand, or wrap my head around, is how Kepler can have such a njce swing, make good contact, hit the ball hard, perform well against LHP, and still suffer continuously from such a low BABIP. It just doesn't make sense to me. Has he just been that unlucky? Does his swing just carry too many balls to the same location so defenses just play him better? Even a slight correction to the norm would seem to make him a STAR player.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but aren't his final fWAR numbers skewed slightly downward due to his time spent in CF filling in for Buxton?

Personally, I think few believe Stroman is anything but an ACE. A nice pitcher, but not an ACE. There was a time, not so long ago, when pitching low in the zone, or having "heavy" stuff was considered a positive. "Pitching to contact", in regard to the "old" Twins mantra never meant let the other team get hits, but rather, throw strikes, mkve your pitches around, and let the hitter get themselves out. In the sudden new age of high barrel rates and launch angles, we are talking about velocity and pitching high so batters get themselves out. But at the end of the day, outs are outs. If Dobnak is more old school in his process, who cares. If he relies more on weak contact and grounders I'm all in.

A great post and a different way to look at the issue. While I absolutely do not want to play devil's advocate and compare suspensions, or the gravity of offenses and the such, the Yankees could have an argument as well. Please understand everyone, I am not speaking of "early parole", if you will, nor advocating anything. I am simply posing a debatable question for the Twins and other franchises simply because we are in somewhat uncharted territory here. I advocate nothing. It's simply an exercise amongst the various situations being present with a shortened/interrupted season. We could just as easily discuss how to balance a "fair" schedule for an abbreviated season. We could equally discuss how a 60 day IL affects a player and team. I'm just tossing out things to consider.

I'm sorry, don't get the confusion here. His penalty IS based on a 162 game season. The penalty for an abuse of any sort is a rounded off 80 games. Which is half a season. Not sure why MLB doesn't do 81G, maybe they just like a round number. And agree nobody should have to pay the monetary price twice, so we may agree on that. I just propose Pineda's penalty of games missed, without pay of course, should be based on the carryover to the second season, which will be abbreviated I'm sure. Again, I think we're saying the same thing monetarily. And if the season, hopefully, is only 20 games short, any reduction in Pineda's penalty is but a few games. I just think it's something to examine, but the idea may already be running its course at this time.

And I get that. But those days of suspension, as I just re-stated again above, lol, were based on days of a regular season or over 2 regular seasons in this case. We are not going to have a regular season in 2020.

And that's all I'm saying. NEVER said Pineda should get paid while being punished. Never said Pineda shouldn't be punished. Never said he should be credited for days all players are going to miss by a late start to the season, whether it be 20 days, 30 days, 40 days, etc. I am simply stating the Twins may have an arguement to have his remaining suspension days whittled down to reflect a shorter season, and thus an equivalent percentage of games missed as if the season were a full 162 games. His penalty, originally 80 games but reduced to mitigating factors, was based on a 162G season and spread out over 2019 and 2020. Fair. But once the dust settles and things eventually get going again, 2020 will not be a 162G season. The arguement is, therefore, his suspension should be reduced an equivalent amount of games to reflect the same % of games missed had both seasons been the traditional 162G length. Just seems fair and logical to me. Especially considering it could be as little as a week worth of action.

The change in velocity is also taking place at the milb level and has been for some time, IMO. Even going back to the last year or two of the TR regime SO numbers were increasing in the system. I'm not real savvy when it comes to including links and the such, but I'd reference anyone to look at my post in the MINORS section from a week or so ago. I found the 2019 Twins milb results to be very interesting.

No, Pineda does not receive credit for games missed that everyone else does. I'm stating there is precedent in regard to suspensions and how they are calculated. In the above reference, a ballplayer was suspended but couldn't have played anyway as he was injured. However, MLB didn't force him to become healthy and THEN begin his suspension. All this to mean there is, again, precedent in regard to the intent of the punishment. But to be more clear, Pineda is supposed to be suspended roughly 30 more games. (I'm rounding) Over a 162 game season, that would mean he is to miss approximately 18% of the Twins season. Now, the 2020 season is reduced by 1 month, approximately 20 games, and Pineda is still suspended for the same 30 days, that means he now must 21% of a now 142 game season. Which means he is arguably receiving additional punishment over and above the intended verdict. How is that fair? Especially when we've seen an example of a player being allowed to "serve time" while on the IR? Having Pineda's suspension reduced would seemingly be a small number of games unless the season is virtually halved. But then again, more time available to contribute is more time to contribute.

It's long been stated that ladies love outlaws and country boys. So that being said, Dobnak should be near the top of the list. Looks like he should be on the PBR circuit and not the mound.

We heard a lot of glowing things about Lewis, but I thought it was great how he wasn't the least bit intimidated by anything and didn't get down after a slow start and then suddenly started to hit/flash.

No, what I am saying is he was suspended a number of games. That number is also based on a 162 game format. Meaning his suspension also equals ascertain number of days, weeks, etc, or percentile of the season. When and if the season is shortened, technically, he is missing more games in the season, or a higher percentile of the season missed than the original punishment was intended for. Therefore, it could be argued he is technically being punished more than was originally decreed. There is a form of reference...I forget who now...where a player was suspended a couple years ago but was also injured. His time on the IR counted towards his suspension days. Coincidental sure, but it does fly somewhat in the face of the intended punishment design. It's a complicated issue, but I think the Twins would have a very valid arguement on a reduction to coincide with the length of the season and an appropriate percentage of games missed adjustment.

Interesting thought process here. The good get even better by getting even healthier. I think it's a valid point in the case of Buxton. I tend to disagree on Hill, however. He is outstanding when healthy. Unfortunately, a big chunk of his career, certainly the past few seasons, he's only ever healthy for about half the season. With that in mind, and recovering from surgery, I always felt like a safer, more practical return for Hill was about July. He basically becomes a quality mid-year trade acquisition equivalent. What could take place, however, is a shortened season providing a longer frame of impact from him. **Interesting idea in another thread was a shortened season should mean a shortening of the Pineda suspension. That would make sense to me, adjusting the percentage of games/time missed, otherwise he would actually be further penalized by missing a greater portion of the season than was initially laid down/intended in his punishment.