DocBauer

I hate to be obvious, but I'd have to go with Chacin as he does qualify for the award. Gearrin is my second choice and more in keeping with the dark horse candidate status. He's had good seasons, is a veteran, someone could stumble or get hurt and I don't believe we HAVE to have that additional lefty. Am I wrong, or wasn't Kirlloff invited to ST? I know his stay won't be as long as the other guys, but i look for him to be impressive early, slide back over to the milb side of things, and then still make a couple additional appearances as they often "borrow" from the milb side for some games here and there. The bat is for real.

While I am very high on Thorpe and am basically predicting he is one of the starting 5 in 2021, with so many SP options in the chute for 2020, it would be easy to also list Dobnak, or even Chacin, as was mentioned. Kind of nice to reflect back on Odorizzi's year and realize that if he just repeats, and doesn't progress any further, that is a very, very fine pitcher right there! No 100% he's an X factor as Berrios taking a step forward, or Pineda being the same guy we saw from June 1st on could be named just as big of X factor, IMO. However, Buxton, no question, biggest X factor in 2020.

Nice to have a couple veteran bounceback fliers to call up in addition to the lines of Alcala and others.

I don't know about in season injury or nagging results from one that lingered. But missing all, or nearly all, of ST had to mess up his timing, approach, etc. The Twins thought they saw enough to bump him up to AA. His results in the AFL make me believe their choice was a correct one,and keeps his top prospect status in check. I was very disappointed in his 2019 as well. And if he struggles again in 2020 at least some of his luster is going be tarnished. But talent, previous results, the early oblique injury, his promotion and strong finish in the AFL keeps him amongst the top spots for me. For now. I begin to question him next off-season if we have a repeat.

My head hurts

I appreciate your comments. I appreciate your comparisons. I think it's also fair to NOT compare individual prospects, especially very young ones, as there are many variables to be considered, not the least of which is injury. Lewis 2017: 36G in the GCL and 18G at CR, bypassing Elizabethton: Composite: .279/ .381/ .407/ .788 Lewis 2018: 75G at CR and 46G at FTM: Composite: .255/ .352/ .451/ .803 His numbers dropped at FTM, which shouldn't be unexpected due to age and experience. A fine all around FIRST FULL SEASON in pro ball. Lewis 2019: 94G at FTM and 33G at PNS: Composite: .236/ .290/ .371/ .661 February 23rd of last season it was reported Lewis had an oblique injury in the field that would set him back and cause him to miss a chunk, if not most of, ST. I think we all know and understand how an oblique injury can really mess with ballplayer. What's interesting is that his stats from A+ to AA Pensecola were very close to the same, though disappointing, despite the raise in level. Further, despite his struggles, the FO saw enough in improvement to advance him to the next level. The FSL is known to be tough on hitters. Larnach, a top prospect, did well there. Great! Awesome! He was a college player a good 2yrs older, if I'm not mistaken. Alex Kirilloff had a great half season at FTM in 2018, I think 1yr younger but coming off his injury missed season. And I love AK and think he's special. But he was also fully healthy in 2018. Royce, now healthy, was sent to the AFL at the end of the season in which the competition is considered roughly AA level, which is where he ended the year. Lewis AFL 2019 in 22G: .353/ .411/ .565/ .975 I am NOT saying Lewis is a finished product guaranteed phenomenoninal success. But so young, so talented, and battling a fairly significant, nagging injury and finishing the season should not only garner optimism, but also help excuse some poor early results to last year. There are absolutely things to work on and develop. But I also think there is WAY too much consternation for a poor/mediocre 2019 in regards to his potential and ranking.

Considering position player vs pitcher, the value of a quality rotation arm, much less a top of the rotation arm, I think you could easily shuffle the top 5 and be right. (Taking Graterol our of the rankings). And I have no problem with that. But I do think souring on Lewis, or Kiriloff, after off 2019 seasons is silly. You have professional scouting at the HS level and general consensus that each is a special and top talent. You have quality pro results. You flash and have great numbers, then you get a little dinged up and have a down or so-so season and suddenly you just aren't as good as you were expected/hoped to be. Kiriloff basically raked again when healthy in 2019. Lewis went to the AFL, healthy, and while SSS, theoretically played against competition as good or better than what he faced during the season. And he was the best player there. Not everyone is the next Griffey Jr, Trout or Harper.

Fantastic opinions/debates from Chief and Brian and Stringer. And really, you're all right, and saying a lot of the same things, albeit from different angels. Kudos! I would only chime in that I think Rocco is pretty smart and seems to have a good feel for the pulse of the team. So far, one year in, I'd say he's done a pretty good job of getting everyone involved. The Kirilloff debate is interesting, though not exact. There is still a difference in Cave seizing opportunity and improving as a player, including defensively, vs a top prospect being brought up to play or languish on the bench after his clock starts. I know Cave is just an example that is under the microscope in these discussions, and we could instead speak about Rooker, Gordon, etc. IMO, Cave has had opportunity. And he will have opportunity. He flashed in 2018, didn't do so well early in 2019, and then did very well the latter part of the season. I still think it falls somewhat on the player. Yes, he needs opportunity to succeed. But he also has to take advantage. So far, I really like the way Rocco uses his roster. I do feel he could have done a little better job in regard to Garver and Castro last year. But then again, that might have been more of a veteran and young player situation. I have a feeling that will change in 2020. I'm not entirely sold on Gibson and Perez vs the kids last year. And on record for that. But I also understand the drive to win and hoping for a couple things to break right for the veterans to contribute. I think this team is deep enough, talented enough, that leashes will be shorter for guys who aren't getting the job done. But I also feel opportunity is there, this manager will provide opportunity, and it's up to the player to take advantage.

The goal is always to compete, win, reach the post season, and try to win the WS, of course. But each year, only one team succeeds in the ultimate goal. I have always believed that what you can control is putting the best, most competitive team you can. That being said, sometimes you have to trade a prospect or two to augment your roster. The Twins did that with Maeda. With 30-32 starts, based on his career, if he gets us 170ish IP, wins 12-16 and pretty much does what he always does, he is a very nice addition and helps the Twins do that. It will be a "win" for the Twins and you just can't reflect back 3 years from now on what Graterol might do and lament a "loss". A FO has to make decisions on what they know and believe to be true NOW. Think back to the AJ trade to the Giants all those years ago. Did the Twins make out like bandits? Yes they did. But AJ was a very good player and a need for the Giants. Nobody knew how good Nathan would turn out, or Liriano, or how solid Bonser would be for a couple seasons. Now, retrospect offers IP it's own perspective in the Capps deal. But sometimes a deal can look questionable at the time, not just in the rearview mirror. Capps was solid, he helped, but as I recall the trade from memory, there was a lot of head scratching at the time. Personally, I don't feel that way about the Maeda deal because i feel people, me included, were in love with the IDEA of what Graterol might be. The FO didn't agree, or felt sure enough about their projections to move forward. I don't argue the Capps trade stung, and still stings. But IMO, the love of prospects has more to do with the Metrodome days, the tighter budgets, etc, and the hope in a mid market team self sustaining itself via the milb pipeline. Especially in regard to SP as that has long been an Achilles heel of the system. Ergo, despite a new FO and an almost entirely new way of doing things, there still exists a "want" for prospects to reach success. In reality, other then SP, we have seen that kind of reward with our current Twins. I have no clue how other fan bases for different teams, especially the big markets, regard their farm system and prospects. They may feel the same, or, they may see those prospects as a commodity who may or may not be kept, but more as a means to an end. As someone who has followed the Twins farm system since the early 80's, I have seen a plethora of "can't miss" pitching prospects do exactly that. I'm very excited about some of the guys on their way up. I have a personal list of 5 "no trade" guys I have high hopes for. But the Capps deal doesn't haunt me, personally. It is more about how thing used to be, and just wanting our "own" players to make it big.

What a great introduction to our new coach! Great article Seth!

Cody, love you dude, but this revisionist history has to stop. I appreciate the OP and the idea, but enough is enough. Hicks was thrust in to a position he wasn't ready for. So was Hunter. Plouffe recently stated that the Ramos for Capps move might look bad, but the Twins don't win without that move. Span and Revere for Meyer and May didn't turn out the way we hoped. But at the time, it was a pair of moves seldom seen by the Twins FO. EVERYONE had Meyer dialed in as a stud #1 and May as a #2-3. Never worked out, though May has found himself as an important piece. Aggie turned out to be OK didn't he? So did Liriano before his arm blew out. Bonser was solid for a brief time. That potential HOF guy Nathan was pretty good, right? Different times, different eras. Maybe Graterol develops in to something special and we have serious regrets. Maybe he doesn't. Maybe he does and yet Maeda helps us win something. We just need to leave the past in the past and worry about now and an entirely different FO and infrastructure.

A straw-man arguement at this point. There should be no reason, as of now, that he isn't one of our best 4. But when October comes, if he isn't, for some reason, then he would be chasing a ring in the pen as happens every season as teams re-configure their entire roster. Honestly, not even worth thinking about at this point.

Nice to see Colina get a little love. I think some are sleeping on him. Hopefully he can find a solid change of some sort. Otherwise, velocity and previous results should have everyone excited about another pen option.

Push come to shove, I am absolutely a prospect guy and it isnt even close. Now, I mean how I want it to turn out. I am and have always been in favor of fliers that could hit and pay dividends. There is a really, really good chance Chacin looks like his old self again and gives the Twins another fine SP option. And that's a good thing! But if you ask me who I'd rather have, he or a 24-25yo Thorpe/Dobnak/Smeltzer with youth and potential on their side of course I take youth and promise. That being said, Chacin and Wisler don't have options. Everyone else does. If cut, once gone, they are gone. So if they show something, look for them to make the roster initially over the kids. It only makes sense.

I don't question Buxton offensively, despite not a full season, because we know his talent and potential and what we saw last year. My only question is health. NONE of his injuries are chronic or repeat injuries. Has he just been snakebit? Or is he just one of those guys, for whatever reason, tight and taught and not flexible in the right way who is always dinged? If he could fight instinct, hold up just a bit, become the 4th or 5th best defensive CF in baseball and play 140 games, I think I'd go for that. He is just too talented to not be on the field.

While I'm not thrilled with Bailey, I am 100% on board with any team taking on a flier for a rebound. You sometimes strike a bit of gold. The biggest difference between Bailey and Perez, IMO, is at least Bailey has had actual ML success in his career before being derailed by injury. What I find so interesting is Bailey being signed to a ML deal and a guy like Chacin being signed to a milb deal after an awful 2019. But if we examine the past couple of years previous, Chacin would have the better, more recent track record. But Bailey gets the ML deal based on 2019 and especially his finish. Interesting. But while I am 100% on board with each of these different fliers, I am also 100% on board with cutting losses after an inexact time frame to move on. With no insult intended, and I do "get" why the Twins stuck with Gibson and Perez as long as they did, how much better might Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer be prepared for 2020 if they had been given greater opportunity in 2019? Said it before and will say it again, would such a move really impacted the final season results negatively?

This trade absolutely about 2020. But it was done with the future still feeling secure. Right or wrong, the FO determined Graterol's short term future was in the pen. If he has/had a future in the rotation, in their opinion, it wasn't now and might require some nurturing. Still, if they really believed he was a future stud SP, they would have traded someone else. They clearly feel Duran and Balozovic are as good or better options as true SP vs Graterol and where they see him. For the Twins sake, you hope they are right. They are not the only 2 options, but they are probably the top 2. The pen looks good with help on the way and on hand as well.

I agree with the premise that Maeda makes and impact, but I stop short of any hyperbole he is a potential #1. I think that's ludicrous to even suggest. He pitched just shy of 180IP and won 16G his first year in LA and has put up consistently good numbers across the board in his 4yrs there, including K's, WHIP, etc. He was very much a part of the rotation in LA. A rotation that ranks as one if the best on one of the best teams in all of MLB. From everything I have read or listened to, the reason he finished the last 3 seasons in the pen was because he was needed there and could really help. And he did. Berrios is clearly our #1 and the only thing stopping him from being considered an ACE has been some 2nd half faltering. To be fair, in 2019 he rebounded after a rough stretch. Something he really didn't do in 2018. Oddo is a 5-6IP starter, but so is most of the league these days. And he is borderline dominate for that 5-6 stretch. The Pineda we saw from June 1st last year might have been even better than Oddo. Without improvement, simply pitching as they did in 2019, I'm not sure I could say which of Odorizzi, Pineda or Maeda would be our #2-3-4. I am also not saying that any of them are necessarily Greinke level. But they are all 3 really good SP. Rank Berrios how you will. Hopefully, by the end of this year we can ALL agree he's a true #1 and he has a signed extension. But IMO, the Twins follow him up with 3 straight guys who are at worst #3 options who all pitch like a legit #2 some if not most of the time. If we get half a season of the Hill that he can be, has been, we have a dangerous mound weapon to add in July. (I'm sticking with a July prediction to full health, velocity, control, etc). "Impact pitching" is/was perhaps a poor choice of words. Semantics. At no point was anything said about adding a $300M pitcher, or sending 4 top 20 prospects to some team for a proposed ACE SP. Nor has any such pitcher been moved this offseason. (Or been made available). The Twins HAVE made impact moves to their staff. It just may not be the impact player some dream of.

While I'm not saying the final spot should go to Astudillo...I think both he and Cave will see time during the season regardless...I'm going to champion the Turtle here some. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but I think he's pretty solid defensively having watched him a lot to end '18 as well as his play last season. I think he's fine behind the plate and he's been solid at noth 3B and 1B when I've seen him. In the OF, while his range is limited, I haven't seen him make a poor play that I can recall. Now, the idea of him at 2B for any reason other than emergency seems silly. I also think he can hit and he has developed some power. He actually hit well at times in 2019, before his 1st injury and seemed to be rounding back to form before his 2nd. Something happened to his timing and whole approach somewhere along the line, however, and he was suddenly flailing and missing or making weak contact at stuff out of the zone. If he can reign that back in, he can be pretty effective. I do believe, however, that Cave is absolutely the better and more dangerous hitter.

When a team succeeds or fails in any fashion, it is usually a reflection of owner/administration on down. We see this all the time. While the Astros performed well on the field and succeeded, the cesspool that is the reality of their organization is now clear. And it starts from the owner. If anyone heard his ridiculous comments and backtalk in a recent "apology" news conference that never really had any remorse, you know what I'm talking about.

The now 15 day mandatory IL does complicate "rest periods" for SP or players of any position. The Twins used that well last season. Still, there are enough bumps and bruises and blisters and the such that I don't think it would be out of the question for someone to be on the IL late in the season if the Twins have a comfortable lead. With options available, they could shuttle a guy or two to the pen and back to the rotation as well as up and down to facilitate said rest periods. But these things often work themselves out, as we've seen. Not in favor of a true 6 man rotation, but in favor of cycling guys here and there. I find the option of partial days off to be interesting, whereby a pair of SP could piggy back about 3 IP each.

Absolutely Rosario is the better player, especially at 100%. But I do like Cave and think he is a nice player. While i don't believe, right now anyway, he has major trade value, I think there are a lot of teams with far less talent in the OF than the Twins that would like to have him. My only problem with Cave is defense. I see him make routine plays and some really nice ones. And then he will inexplicably take a horrible angle or dive for a ball 3 foot out of his reach. If he could just refine his defense a bit more I think his value ratchets up another notch or two.

We can debate grading now vs grading after the season. But I am giving them a grade of A, though I could be talked in to A-. I really hate going down the path, again, that all forms of offseason shopping are nothing like going to a store and selecting what you want off a shelf. Donaldson affects defense and offense, and sets a different perspective and precedent for the club. The Maeda trade was quality and aggressive. You can't knock them for trading good to get good. The half season flier on Hill is smart and could pay huge dividends. I really don't know how I feel about Bailey. Could be a quality move as his rebound and new approach looked legit last year. He was quite good before a string of injuries. The cost might be a little high, but it's only 1yr. I like the Clippard signing and think it's being undervalued. Just because Romo, Odorizzi and Pineda were with us last season doesn't make re-signing them any less impactful. Honestly, my biggest concern right now is replacing the coaches we lost. The FO seems to have an eye for quality personnel and I'm trusting them in this area. We have one of the best teams in MLB. Period.

Oh great! I was told there would be no math.

Brilliant!