DocBauer

What I find so interesting is the versatility of this lineup and how many different points you could argue as to where guys fit. Kepler could fit anywhere from #1, where he was so successful, all the way down to the 7 spot. Polanco could even hit 3rd, which he did well when Molitor was here. Is Cruz best at 3rd or 4th in the order? If Kepler doesn't hit 1, does he slide down to 4 possibly and bump Rosario? So many possibilities! I think you could legitimately argue against changing what worked so well last year and utilize Arraez and all his skills lower in the order as was done, and keep Kepler and Polanco in the top spots. But all in all, it just makes too much sense not to have Arraez set the table. Buxton was so effective and downright dangerous hitting 9 I'd keep him there for now. And while I love Eddie, I wonder if the powerful but more disciplined Kepler shouldn't hit 4th behind Cruz, ahead of Sano, and Slide Eddie down. Going to be another fun year for sure!

I really liked what I saw flash last year, I just want to see more consistency in his control. Young, aggressively promoted the last 2 years and a rookie seeing his first ML action. Not surprising he doesn't look finished yet. Can't remember who we played, but there was a 4 IP performance when he looked almost dominate for the first 3 innings before seeing his numbers inflate the 4th inning as he took one for the team. You could see the potential there.

Only a novice, but I kinda get and kinda understand all the modern day analytics. I kinda get WAR as well. It all sounds so smart and well researched. And then I read about how many WAR options there are. And pitchers, let's just stop before we get in to various ERA and FIP this and that. At some point...a player performs or he doesn't. Your eye shows you a guy is good or stinks at certain things, albeit with stats to help you make your final decision. But the catcher position in baseball is so unique that I care very little about statistics or rankings. There was a time when you hit, or you didn't. But managers and pitchers would talk about handling a staff, and calling a game, and leading a staff or team. Before there was Butera there was Boone. And if you don't know Boone, look him up. And if you don't know either...I don't know what to tell you. Modern metrics have really messed with catcher "rankings" in my opinion. Unless you are in the clubhouse, dug out, or on the field, you really don't know how good that catcher is or the job he does. Castro was good. Castro did a lot in his 2 healthy seasons for the Twins. I would have liked to keep him for a 60/40 ish split for 2020 since the 50/50 worked so well in 2019 but Garver is ready for more. IMO, the Twins were lucky to find an almost exact equivalent in Avilla for next season to replace Castro. What I don't understand is NO rumors and NO reported offers for Castro until this deal. Was he asking for and expecting too much? I'm guessing that is the case. Otherwise, I think the Twins would have spent a bit more to keep status quo. I think he was looking for a real shot at being the #1 guy and was disappointed. I think he was important for the club while here and for Garver's growth as well. Best of luck to him. Glad we have a nice #2 option available who is respected.

Maybe I'm just a homer, but I actually think the FO felt they either had Stroman in the bag, or felt they had an understood gentleman's agreement for first refusal to up their offer. Considering reportage as to their consternation, and other various reports that questioned what the Jay's got back, I am thinking this is what happened, for whatever reason. Betting you will not see another transaction between these teams for some time.

Why do so many discount keeping these guys in the fold. Baffles me!

This may or not be the right place to broach this, but I don't know if it deserves a separate OP, and he's already been mentioned. At least by me, lol. What is the issue with Romero? I think he could be a huge surprise in 2020 and going forward if his arm and stuff can be harnassed. And his stuff is electric. I don't pretend to have the eye or knowledge of Parker or many contributors here. Is he just that inconsistent in his delivery? MY OPINION watching him last season is it felt like he pitched almost "scared". It felt, to me, like he was trying to be too perfect and "aim" the ball vs just throwing within the zone and allowing for natural velocity and movement to do what it does. Love to hear other opinions on the matter.

What is so interesting here, to me, is not the slider. I mean, the numbers sort of speak for themselves, but his FB. Unless I just missed something, the velocity seems to be there, but location or deception seem to be the issue. I don't recall if he normally throws a 2 seam or 4 seam, but something has to be found or corrected. Is it his grip? Does he need to slide to one side of the rubber? Is he just inconsistent with his delivery? Seems to me if Johnson can do the things we think he can do, add a tick or two, help him "tunnel" and find that consistent approach, we could end up finding something here. Just because no-one has yet doesn't mean this isn't the time and place and coaching point in his career to make something happen. I mean, the problem with most pitchers isn't the FB, right? It's usually their breaking pitch or change.

Can't and won't disagree with you as we agree 100% in principal. Betts, of course, was just an example. Part of me always likes to look forward to the young guys I see being so close. Yes, guys will get dinged. And you can always end up making an unexpected trade if you truly end up with surplus. Ranching it down a notch, what are your feelings on Frazier for a 1yr or Castellano as an OF, try him at 1B, he could play 3B in a pinch option? Not that I necessarily sold on either guy.

Agree 100%. But reflecting back, Gibson was beginning to have issues as well. And 1 kid in the rotation at a time may have been their thinking. But I agree, you give the kid of choice a shot, or you don't. (Did I just channel Yoda there?) When 2020 rolls around, and there is opportunity arises early on with Pineda out, I hope they just "go for it" with their youngster of choice. Maybe even piggyback a couple of them.

We generally agree on this point. You can never have too many good players. So get as many as you can and plug them in to the place, or places, that they fit best. But that has to come with at least a little context, doesn't it? You get Betts tomorrow and now who plays 1B? Do you move Kepler there and cross your fingers? He's athletic enough to probably convert well, but is that the best course of action? While I hope but don't think we will get Donaldson, he's a great fit due to bat and position and the move of Sano to 1B. But if not him, isn't a Moreland-type on a 1yr to replace Cron perhaps the best option? You have a handful of really good looking guys near ready to challenge for 1B, and Lewis getting that much closer to taking over one of the infield spots. Not saying "don't get someone" because you whiff on Donaldson. I just think how they fit within the structure of the team, even and especially in context of positional flexibility, has to still be considered. But yeah, have the money, miss on Donaldson, look to improve in any way you can.

How many times can I hit the LIKE button before I get in trouble or my phone blows up on me? Understand frustration, disappointment, optimism, etc. But the ENTIRE context of the quote, what has happened, and what might yet happen, all have to be considered. This is directed at nobody in particular, just my own thoughts and commentary. The quote never stated any guarantee one of the top 4-5 FA was going to be brought on board no matter what. In fact, to me, the first step, and what I'm extremely grateful happened, was bringing Oddo and Pineda back. They are impact guys. Now, I wanted more. I still want more. But I think any disappointment I feel is level headed in how things have played out so far.

I feel part of the reason Perez got such a long leash was based on hope from his early season performance, and maybe a feeling of not putting too much pressure on too many of the kids at once. Where I feel positive that they won't continue to play someone not performing is moving on from Parker, and others, in the pen, or embracing Arraez daily over Schoop. I hope I'm right, but I think we may be moving beyond the "pay 'em so play 'em" mantra.

My answer is no to a trade, and not due to dislike. His addition, even with a good bat, is not the same as adding Donaldson. Donaldson brings that big bat along with fine defense for at least a few more years. Adding a different quality bat but poor defense does not have the same affect as the slight re-shuffle of the infield corners. I'd rather come up with the best short term 1B option I can with Rooker/Raley/Kirilloff in the wings and close.

I would have preferred someone younger like Wood or Walker on a 1+1 deal as the upside is much greater, IMO, though the floor might be lower if they just can't make it back. Which leads to the premise of the OP discussing Bailey vs Perez. Bailey had success for a period if time before injury derailed his career. He had a bounce back in 2019 and finished strong, someone you can't say about my preferred and previously stated options. Bailey has also already had some career success whereas Perez really hadn't until the first months of last season. In short, there is every reason to believe Bailey, IF actually performing well/solidly should maintain and not fall off a cliff the way Perez did.

Read every post. Ready to weigh in. I had a personal list of a few flier guys I liked. (Not that I KNOW anything). Neither of these guys were on my list. These guys are not part of my prescription for 2020. The Doctor is NOT overly happy about these moves. But whether it be life or Twins, I like to take a step back and look at the situation, weigh and examine everything, and try to see the big picture. Again, NOT happy. And I'm not going to be until I see Donaldson, or a trade for a quality arm, hopefully both. But with a step back, still hoping things are not done, I can offer a few points of "positivity" that should be considered. 1] While injuries have been an issue, Hill has been good to very good when on the mound. As recently as last season. He absolutely is a cheap mid season type acquisition that costs little. And if good enough to earn any of his incentives, the FO looks brilliant. There really is no risk here. 2] A few years back, Bailey had a nice run of a few good seasons before injury and such derailed him. For whatever reason(s), he had a bounceback in 2019 and a strong finish. Some decent/good previous success and said rebound doesn't look too bad for your your #4 or #5 SP. And that is what he was signed for. I think most of us were on board for a depth flier regardless. 3] Everyone, myself included, liked what the FO did EXCEPT for ignoring all the FA for the BP, except for Parker, and were confused and miffed greatly. But they had a vision/plan that we didn't see and by the time things settled down, they were right, and I will admit I was wrong. They like their first 3 guys. They like their youngsters, obviously, and believe in what is coming up. They obviously have a vision and belief we all don't see or agree with at this time. Once again, I'm not really happy. There still needs to be a couple smart moves made to build on this club and their potential. I'm not ready for torches and pitchforks yet because I've seen so much good they have done. And my "positive spin" here isn't to convince you, or myself for that matter, that these were any kind of brilliant move! I only offer a step back perspective, after reflection, to say there may be a method in madness here to be examined and not simply dismissed out of frustration and impatience.

First, tremendous OP, Nick. I especially liked the O'dowd comments because they are real. Kudos. The one comment, in all sports, that has always frustrated and confounded me is "This team is built for the playoffs". (I shake my head again just thinking about it). It is the worst case of hyperbole. It's as if someone assembled a team/roster and SOMEHOW the regular season should be skipped and we should somehow skip said regular season and just assemble a collection of teams based on paper and fantasy projection and just jump so some playoff scenario to decide the champion. It doesn't work that way. If it did, the Twins would have been virtually excluded in 1987. The Patriots would have just been handed the Lombardi trophy a few years back instead of having to actually PLAY, and lose to the Giants simply because they were the "best team assembled". While some want to scream "cheap" about "financial flexibility" as though it were an ugly 4 letter or hyphenated word, it is not. In MLB, we are seeing teams, and have seen glimpses previously, now looking to shed excessive payroll they themselves created. Take Boston as an example. Am I off topic or digressing? Not at all. The Twins window opened up in 2019 through a variety of factors, mostly due to health and progression of the core in place, along with a few smart additions. And yet, for various reasons, there remains room for INTERNAL improvement, based on experience/development and in some cases, health. Unless suddenly traded in mass, there is a collection of top prospects nearly ready to add and replace losses over the next year or so. This, even allowing for the loss of current players/prospects. You trade Rosario, Larnach is close to replacing him. Or Kirilloff does with Raley or Rooker taking over or sliding in to 1B. Lewis, untradedm could be at 3B/SS/CF. The point isn't horde prospects, but just don't dump them all so that you have options. We simply will not be able to keep and re-sign everyone. Trades will happen for various reasons. Some prospects will flame out. Others will surprise. Some trades will pan out, others will not. But additions and development will be key over time. The best run franchises with any sort of "sustainability" prove that to be true. As the Twins are constructed, RIGHT NOW, from the ML roster on down, knowing there will be losses here and there, I would say there is a legitimate window of 3 to 4 years. That's the best I can give because there are just too many factors in place. Example: we keep Berrios but lose Sano and Buxton. They are replaced Lewis and Javier. Give me the best, most competitive, versatile team you can put together every season for a shot, and I'll take that.

Saying "if healthy" is a redundant and somewhat bogus statement as really, that applies to EVERYONE! And career performance for an over 30yr old player is always a very slippery slope. HOWEVER, I'd like to think the health question is something any team, including the Twins, would investigate very thoroughly before making any move. (I thoroughly acknowledge mid-season moves like the one last year for Dyson throw a monkey wrench in place). To state the obvious, I don't pay a lot in prospect value. Boston also has to eat some of the $ cost. But how does that work exactly? If you are the Twins, you could be looking at Boston eating mkre the first year, potentially while we have $ sitting unspent for 2020. But over the next couple of seasons, even with some additional $ coming off the books, we also have some extensions we need to look at. Prince's performance in big games for 2018 shouldn't be discounted. Nor should his first half of 2019, which I would gladly take. But how much, if you are the Twins, do really and truly trust his health and ability to perform for 28GS over the next few years at something like $20M per with low prospect cost? Do you truly see the ends justifying the means? I'm saying no, but I am intrigued. I just feel the odds are better for Gray, Ray, etc, for 2yrs plus a flier type we've all discussed. Maybe there is another Odorizzi move that is even smarter.

A very interesting arguement, Matt. Honestly not sure Duffey and May couldn't be one of the guys to actually take a step forward. But of the 3 names you listed, I'd also agree on Littell, but with some hesitancy. I say that because I liked what he did and what I saw. He's come a long way from the kid with a deer in the headlight look thrown out on the mound when not quite ready in 2018. But damn when you look at what Stashak did as a rookie and his SO/BB totals. With the very nature of the BP role, so hard to predict regression. Because of that, I won't argue against Duffey, or anyone. Said regression would be minimal, I'd hope. I think a 3rd topic, and maybe more interesting, would be a Wild Card choice. Who might step up that we aren't exactly exlecting? Might that be Wisler suddenly finding better control, Romero harnessing his stuff, or Alcala embracing his new role? Or someone else?

I agree with the list and the order, though in actuality, it will fluctuate some daily. Very excited about the depth all the way down to Rochester. Have this nice kind of nagging feeling that Romero could end up changing this list. Just throw the ball over the plate, kid, and trust your stuff.

This is a topic that tantalizes me and also drives me crazy! If you take a long, hard look at the core of tne Twins roster, you forget how young it is. After a handful of just disappointing and hard seasons, you want HOPE. And you read about all this talent coming up and you just want them to be special NOW. And some point to this guy, or that guy, who are 21-23yo and seem to be studs already. But those guys at that age not only don't grow on trees, they are spread out throughout 30 teams! EVERYONE wants to have the next Trout! It doesn't happen that often. Berrios is a FINE SP. I doubt there is a team that wouldn't love to have him. He is already good, and a 2 time All Star...for what that is worth...who has looked like a bona fide ACE in the making before some late season regression. He won't be 26 until May of 2020! Sano and Polanco are still only 26yo. Buxton and Kepler the same. Maybe it's some kind of Minnesota curse, but injuries have indeed played a part for some reaching their full potential. Now whether it is maturity, health, or a new way of doing and approaching things, we saw a maturation taking place in 2019 with all of these guys stepping in to what should be their prime years. He'll, Rosario at 28yo is the "old man" of this group. I don't think we have seen the best yet of any of these guys. Period. But give me 140 games played with health, or 30 GS, I'd pick Sano, Buxton and Berrios. And that doesn't even include improvement from Polanco, Kepler and Garver, possibly one of the best all around catchers in the game.

Sorry, and with due respect for your opinion, I just can't agree here. Thus FO has eaten payroll at times over the last couple of years to make trades, something never done before to my recollection. While they have yet to trade top prospects, they have traded some prospects recently. Polacios (did I remember that right?) Was still a "decent" and young prospect traded for Odorizzi. How did that turn out? They traded a couple of decent prospects, though not top granted, to acquire Dyson and Romo last year. Turned out to be half right. Just because they haven't as of yet traded some of their top 10-20 prospects doesn't mean they won't. I mean, 3 years in, but going back to mid season last year, when has there really been a time that was right to do so? And even last year, they were in on Stroman before he went to the Mets and it was widely published they were rather P.O. because they felt they were in and would have offered a counter but weren't allowed to. Now, if they rest on laurels and do nothing but plan B or C, then they bad better be as smart as we all hope they are or some torches and pitchforks may come out. Signing someone like Wood or Walker is exactly what they SHOULD do, regardless! These are guys who have live arms, healthy, and have even shown what they can do when healthy. Remember when Pineda was signed for $2M to rehab and had a 2nd year? How did that turn out? Even with some young arms on hand, these kinds of fliers on 27-28yo arms should be a must for anyone, especially a mid-market team. And unless there is something financially going on I am not privy to, I don't see how the Twins spending $M's of dollars every year to update Target Field is in some way recouping any sort of debt. I don't mean to sound argumentative or mean, we just don't agree here.

Been banging the drum on Walker and Wood for some time now. Never thought about both of them as I still see a trade taking place. But honestly, why not both? What's the worst that could happen? Both turn out and you have surplus depth and value? Or one turns out and you look like geniuses? No on Hill as he's hurt and his recent public embarrassment is something I want no part of. If you want a 3rd option, think about Nelson.

Nice write up. And I'm in full agreement on Odorizzi. He doesn't pitch the number of innings you want, but he is borderline dominate for 5+ daily. While the Twins NEED another SP, and there is debate about the whole addition of adding "impact pitching", I don't see how bringing back Odorizzi and Pineda, 2 of the top 12-14 arms available on anyone's list, isn't adding impact pitching. Adding Clippard isn't adding a bum either. They need to add a similar pitcher to Berrios and Odorizzi. Also agree that a flier for depth and competition is an easy must.

While I am not a fan of the Dirty Sox in the least, I appreciate their efforts from afar. And while I can appreciate some of the modern statistical measurements, I remain a huge skeptic. Point in fact, another article, written on another Twins website...though compares to TD...uses the same, or much the same, analytical measurements, using mostly the Pythagorean record...all Greek to me, lol...and WAR, and has them as a .500 team for 2020. As of now, the Twins sit at a minimum of 90 wins using the same analytics. I think there is a big difference between the "analytics" used by beat writers, fans and savants vs the analytics used by progressive FO personnel. Give me the best team you can put on the field. Short in an area? Shore up that area the best you can and build up your strengths to compensate. Then give me the best staff you can to utilize what you have. Then let's play ball and see what we have. Besides, it's not even January 1st yet!

Career production, last season production, regression and projection all indicate we should see pretty much the same Cruz, give or take a little, we saw in 2019. Just allowing for father time, I'd expect some regression and a few more games played to see him post very similar numbers next year. Now, Cruz could just decide enough is enough and retire after 2020. Be could also decide he wants to chase some numbers and feel like he's ready to play some more. That would put him in a year to year situation, IMO. Could put he and the Twins in an interesting position come the end of next year. But, that is a discussion for a very distant time and place. I get the Papi reference, and while comparison is natural, the re-tread of a Ryan mistake made 16yrs ago just needs to stop. Whole careers have been made since that time.