DocBauer

Unless you have the top pick in the draft...on rare occasions maybe the 2nd or 3rd...and there is a Clemons or Strasburg there, you don't draft an ACE. You find arms you like and project and develop them. We are starting to see real changes in the development structure of the Twins system that could pay off over the next couple of years. Debate all you will, but Berrios has that kind of potential still at 26yo. Gtaterol, with any kind of decent 3rd pitch and a little time and nurturing could be that type. Balazovic has a lot of steam. Duran maybe? But the Twins are in a unique and somewhat awkward position right now. They have the $ to make a move that helps this team for at least a couple of years. But the market has shifted again and the terms have escalated beyond what I think anyone anywhere expected. Do they take a shot here and overpay and figure out payroll 3 and 4 years from now when they get there? Do they try to front load a deal for greater flexibility down the road? That's what I'd be trying to do. Or are they better off deepening the pen, add at least a decent if not good bat to replace Cron and deepen the lineup as well as add at least one decent solid rotation piece and in lue of some expensive rotation piece? I don't know which way is smarter. You can enhance the club and it's chances either way. But just saying "go get an ACE no matter what" isn't an accurate wish.

Kind of why I like the idea of a bounce back by Shaw vs a traditional 1B. Now, the Donaldson idea isn't a bad one, but i just don't see it happening.

Healthy, the FO convinced he is healthy, I'm still in on Cron. Secondary option, think I like a bounceback by Shaw over Smoak or Moreland.

One thing I really like about this list is there is a real chance as many as 9 of the listed 15 could see MLB before 2020 is done. Now, we have a deep and talented team, so I'm not saying it's going to happen. Lewis and Balazovic may be long shots, but not extreme long shots. Of course, if they would only make token appearances, then maybe keeping them off the 40 man until later might be prudent.

Agreeing with Parker and Brian. Astudillo got off to a good start before his oblique injury. After he came back, he was a little slow out of the gate and then seemed to start getting hot before getting dinged again. He just needs a little more patience and recognition. Superior contact with decent power is kinda special. As long as the contact...or in some cases missed contact...isn't balls near the dirt and a foot outside. As long as he just sticks to a plan and a certain zone, even a large zone, and remain in that box he is a solid hitter. His defense will never be anything special. But he's decent wherever you put him. He can be a very valuable part of the roster.

And you bring up an interesting point I have mentioned before. I don't believe his offseason regiment is an issue. And I have absolutely no clue what his in-season routine is. But for such a highly conditioned young athlete, he seems to have a late season fade each season after looking so dominant previously. I'm wondering if he is working too hard during the season and should back off to maintain endurance and energy.

Assuming we flat miss out in FA, I'm open to Price if he is healthy. But I need enough $ eaten to make his annual value to be $25M or less. Boston gets nothing in our top 10 prospect list. They probably get 1 in the next 10 and a flier. As detailed by others here, healthy, he has performed well recently. It's the healthy and stay healthy part that is key to the deal working.

Right now, this moment, I don't buy it. Would be one of the only moves made that would make sense to move Sano this young to 1B. Also keeps the offense extremely potent. If done, would signal they would look to the trade market for SP, maybe an additional flier, and focus on a pen addition or two and just avoid some of the crazy numbers and years we've seen thus far.

Maybe there is a reason Smith debuted so late, but 28yo and throws around 91-92MPH? Hard pass! Nice write up about Alcantara a few weeks ago. I admit I'm interested due to youth and velocity and would like to see what Johnson could do with him. But any Rosario conversation is an immediate stop if I'm the Marlins. And I LOVE Rosario! But if I'm a cheap, 105 loss team in re-build mode, why on earth would I want a veteran player with 2yrs control and costing me almost $9M next season? I'm looking for 1 of Kirilloff or Larnach, 1 of Balazovic, Duran or Enlow, and a Gordon or Blankenhorn "throw in". Alcantara has velocity, is young and controllable, why would I settle for less? Is that too much to give up? Just how much potential does the FO and Johnson see in Alcantara?

Nick, I love the way you are thinking here. But maybe not exactly the way you were thinking. Via FA or trade, I have no doubt another arm will be added to the rotation to compete with Berrios and Odorizzi. And I'm NOT going to get in to that because there are about 6 other threads that deal with it and NOT what we are talking about here. Unless the budget gets blown up a bit by a BP signing or two...which I'm OK with...i am fully in favor of adding a flier/bounce back rotation option. But unless $ amounts continue to go nuts, I see more than a handful of guys out there that may be available for anywhere from $5-8M who are as good and better than your list here. (I get you are targeting cheap fliers who could surprise). But I look at your list as being a couple of guys with high ceiling bullpen pieces. Moore and Smyly intrigue me the most, being LH. After so much injury and disappointment, isn't it the right time for either, or both, to consider a move to the pen? More appearances but limited IP, 1 or 2 on most days, and just throw their best stuff. This could/should be the perfect opportunity for these guys to re-invent themselves for their career.

Agreed. I like Dobnak's potential quite a bit. I think he has decent stuff, the right frame, decent velocity, etc. I think his rise last season should not be discounted. He appears determined, unflappable and has the sort of "it" intelligence factor. All good things! How good could he be? Let's check back in a season or two shall we. I like this kid a lot. But I also like Thorpe an awful lot too. I think some people discount him because he isn't 21-22yo old. But he missed two full seasons and has been pushed pretty aggressively since his return. And he's done very well. While his ML numbers for 2019 don't look all that great, there were innings and moments when you could see the potential. I think he is a legitimate ML SP with a floor of quality RP who could be Rogers-like, potentially. And in no way should we dismiss Smeltzer at this point. We saw flashes and potential of a bulldog, smart pitcher last season. But let's be real. If he can be nurtured a bit and keep his IP under control, Graterol is a HIGH END talent who could potentially explode over the next year or two. ALL of these guys have a chance to make real contributions in 2020 as the 5th SP, temp 4th SP while waiting for Pineda, and out of the pen. (There are a few others who could make their presence known before 2020 is over as well). And with experience, talent, coaching and the right opportunity, we will be able to approach 2021 with a couple of these guys penciled in to key roles. But this is a HIGH quality team with real potential. I don't knkw who the FO is going to bring on board to add to the top of the rotation, or whether it will be via FA or trade. I fully believe in the smarts of our FO to bring in a quality arm to add to the mix...even if it isn't exactly who may have been hoped for. But regardless, when you look at some of the arms available, there are a number of guys out there who could be brought in on a 1yr or 1+1 deal that still offer up experience and potential where you deepen your options and potential. As I stated elsewhere, there is and will be opportunity for these young guys. But get that one arm you really think can help, and then sign another whether you want to call it a flier or bounce back.

You may have hit on something, Ted. Perhaps the Twins needed to come out of the gates with guns blazing and hit Wheeler hard with 5yrs and $20+M per and just overwhelm him. Maybe their "reported" $100M and 5yrs WAS the first offer on the table. Do we know it wasn't? We already know he turned down more from the Dirty Sox and "reports" state the Twins weren't even in his final 4-5, for whatever reason. Would offering more in a counter offer even mattered? Some look at the last 2 offseasons and cry collusion. I see market correction, analytics, and lesser talent availability except for the top end who still got paid. I see a swing back, part of normal corrections we tend to see, and a deeper market of available talent. Have the Twins been slow to react, misjudging what was going to take place? Or have they maybe been prudent and intelligent with various FA and trade options still available? We may never know the answer. But there is time yet. And when the dust settles and the smoke clears, we may find out that the moves yet to be made by our FO will be well calculated, productive, and lead to another Central victory and a shot at the prize.

Not disagreeing with your premise of getting better. This is a good team, but with room to improve. But I do disagree with the root of your analysis. Berrios absolutely has room to grow and develop further. We have all seen the talent and potential. Odorizzi didn't pitch poorly and is pretty darn good. Dobnak was there because Pineda, pitching borderline outstanding, was not available. Gibson was a mess and wasn't really a factor. The Yankees had much more experience in such a setting. I don't think that should be dismissed. And while the Yankees endured quite a few injuries in 2019, they were relatively sound to close out the second half. Meanwhile, injuries and rust from injuries, plus the Pineda suspension, had an impact on the Twins, IMO. The Yankees were and are a good ballclub. And the Twins need to continue to grow, develop and improve themselves. No debate there. I believe they can and will. But various circumstances at the end of last year doesn't dim my opinion or perspective because a potential #5 SP with potential was thrust in to an unfair position.

Between the 5th spot, filling in for Pineda, double headers, rest periods and hopefully LIMITED IR stints, I am hoping that by this time next year we feel we legitimately have TWO of these talented young guys penciled in to the 2021 rotation.

Very excited and pleased to have him back! To me, he maybe as important as Odorizzi being back. And yes, I mean that. He has had a nice, solid career with some outstanding runs, including going to an All Star game, FWIW, but injuries have curtailed his career somewhat. Healthy, he has some solid stuff and quality results. We saw that in 2019. He is at that perfect time of age and experience, with good stuff, that his next couple of seasons could be the best part of his career. The same might be said of Odorizzi, for that matter. I thought I had heard somewhere that with his knee fully sound, something that wasn't the case until January sometime last year, that he was getting in some good off season work. I hope that is true. In no way do I expect him to be Sveldt Mike next season, but just a little lighter, just a little better shape, could go a long way.

The merits of who/what Bumgarner is NOW and what he MAY BE have been debated. And to be honest, I am torn. There just as many positives in regard to numbers and results as positives. Big game, postseason experience tends to tip the scales his direction for me, along with general belief you can count in him for 30 GS and 180-200 IP. I have no illusions he is a #1 SP any longer. I believe he is as good as, and probably better than Odorizzi now, and for the next couple of years. (NOT a shot of Oddo by any means!) I firmly believe, if healthy and playing for a quality team, he will be an over priced but solid #3 type option for a couple more years. Contract $ or not, these are valuable and important factors to consider. I get trying to get the best deal you can. But if he really doesn't feel like he wants to be here, and will only be "happy" doing so with a 6yr deal for over $20M, I find myself souring very quickly. It's one thing to over pay and another to just get nuts. Ryu is very good when available. His contract would be shorter and much easier to swallow. My hope would be Johnson and Baldelli could nurture him much like they did with the rest of the staff in 2019 to make him available for 28 GS. I'm leaning his way now. I could buy in on Keuchel if it's a 3yr deal. I understand arguments about being an innings eater and control pitcher and what happens if that control suddenly slips. I understand the Twins infield isn't airtight defensively. My counters would be he certainly hasn't lost control yet and IMO, our defense isn't really all that bad, and has the potential to definitely get better in 2020 from normal progression that I expect from Sano, Polanco and Arraez.

Of the 3 options, I vote for #1. That being said, I'd like to replace Bailey with about 3 or 4 others I think. Just don't know he's the best cheap/bounce back option. How about Shaw at 1B and keep Sano at 3B? Greater continuity, a good 1B, and Shaw can still bring value by playin 3 positions if/when Raley/Rooker/Kirilloff are ready to take over 1B.

Just some overall thoughts on the topic at hand. I want the Twins to move the needle. They are very good, but there is room to get better. I think you would clearly find the Twins themselves feeling the same way. Now, in addition to just getting better, there really is one primary, initial goal; reaching the post season. You can't win squat unless you get their first. Period. I would love the Twins to acquire a true ACE pitcher. Not going to argue the value of the 2 FA available or the viability to actually join the Twins, other than to state the obvious that there never really are too many of these guys around. And there sure isn't anyone out there, to my knowledge, with a FOR SALE sign in the window offering up said ACE type pitcher. But the team can, should, will improve themselves via FA or trade on the mound. I don't have any illusions that Bumgarner will suddenly return to his previous form. However, a new staff and new opportunity may indeed see some sort of up tick. But if he could join Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda creating a quality and deep rotation of #2-3's, I would be very happy with that. Perhaps Bumgarner is not that guy. Perhaps it's someone they need to trade for. I think it's a bit misguided to go shopping and ordering up an All Star #1 ACE SP. It just doesn't work that way. But you can still get deeper, stronger and better. I just hope they pick the right guy, whoever he may be.

FWIW, on the last Gleeman and the Geek, Aaron stated he had heard rumors that the Twins may be higher on Ryu than Bumgarner. He was clear there was nothing definitive however. Just thought I'd toss it out there.

Would I be upset if we signed Ryu? No. The guy can pitch. And maybe Wes and Rocco can nurture him for 180IP per season to make it work. But if we were going to take a shot, I'd rather bet on the bionic arm of Bumgarner. His injuries were a motocross accident and a freak injury where a ball hit his hand, IIRC. Despite all his IP, I would still feel better about him, his experience and bulldog mentality vs a guy 3yrs older who can't stay on the mound. Bumgarner...and this is what scares me...is just ready for TJ or a rotator cuff or labrum problem based on all his IP. But what I love about him is he just may indeed have a bionic arm. Maybe he is a LH version of Jack Morris. Laugh if you will. But think about Verlander with Detroit. He looked almost cooked. Then he rebounded and was traded and found a second life. Bumgarner doesn't have, and probably never had, Verlander's velocity. But pitching isn't always about pure velocity. New team, fresh experience, new coaching, I would bet more on him and his arm and experience and attitude over Ryu in a heartbeat. I know we could get burned. But isn't that true for any 30yr old pitcher with miles on his arm? But I am willing to take the chance on MadBum and what he has left if the cost doesn't get crazy.

I absolutely believe Thorpe could thrive in the bullpen. And I get going north with your best arms. (You can always move a young arm back to the rotation later, we've seen it done). But I would guess the Twins really want him to concentrate on starting right now, even if that means Rochester to begin the year. Graterol is a quandary because he really should be starting, and I think we, the FO, and the mailman all know and believe that. And I don't think it's about service time. It's about a decent 3rd pitch and stretching him further out and just gaining experience. I have no clue how they will do it. But between the ML and milb level, I see some slips, and following some designated starters to get the best of him in 2020 without over using him.

We will need at least one of them to cover the first 30-40 days, as I just mentioned. I have a pretty strong feeling we will sign a flier after we acquire that last important arm, FA or trade. How good that bounceback, flier arm does will shape the opportunity for the kids. And don't get me wrong, those young guys need opportunity! How else will they be able to become potential fixtures? But wouldn't it be something if they were depth for the rotation and pen and FORCED their way in to a spot?

Actually, I have always believed strongly both would be back. It made too much sense not to happen. The fit is good. The $ were there. They like being here and the FO, staff and team wanted them here. In fact, Oddo has even stated he is open to an extension vs the 1yr. To me the question has always been FA or trade, where does that other really good arm come from to join them and Berrios? I am 100% on board for a flier FA/rebound option and have always expected one, depending on the market and how it unfolds. But I've also always felt the FO might just keep the 5th spot open for all the young guys. Of course, the caveat to that is also needing them to help cover the first 30-40 days without Pineda. I don't know who it will be, but I'm expecting a $5-6M 1yr deal for someone after we acquire that one top arm.

He can fully participate in ST. I remain unsure if he can hang around Ft Myers during the suspension or has to workout on his own. He then gets, I believe, 15 days of milb before he has to be activated. All things go, he should be ready early to mid May.

Tremendous post, Ted! Really enjoyed it! Look, I'm bummed on losing out on Wheeler and the hoped for potential he would climb the ladder. But until the smoke clears and the dust settles, we simply don't know what the FO is going to do yet. What if we lose out on Bumgarner and Ryu, etc, but the FO pulls off a trade for Gray? What if the grab Archer away from the re-building Pirates for a fair package and back in the AL and working with Johnson he pitches as well as he ever has? Will anyone care then we lost out on the big name FA? Without making any huge moves, and even with collapses by Perez and Gibson, we had some of the best SP in the league last year by what we DID HAVE. Despite not making the moves we all cried out for in the bullpen, they cobbled together a workable group that changed out and got better the second half of the year. (Even with the Dyson move completely blowing up). With little exception, I can't find fault with most any move this FO has made the past 2 years. (Verdict is out on a couple still). They have been aggressive at times, inventive at times, swapped out temporary assets for at least fliers, eaten $ on occasion, and basically run the entire organization from top to bottom very differently than it was in the past. Between draft selections, international FA and trades, they have assembled one of the best and deepest farm systems in MLB. They talk about building an organization and maintaining stability. This means having prospects to promote...which they have done far more aggressively...but also having prospects to move. And I think you will start to see some of that happening in the not to distant future. As someone else pointed out, there are a handful of teams in MLB that can actually afford to have $20-30+M in dead money on the books. Most teams, including the Twins, can't afford to do that. So at some point, Darvish last year, Wheeler this year, the FO just decides a certain number is enough. From what we have heard about Wheeler...and we don't know if the Twins were willing to bump their offer or not...he turned down the Dirty Sox for the Phillies despite a reportedly higher offer. It happens. I get WANT and EXCITEMENT, but there are a lot of ways to build a good ballclub that can compete. And I say again, when the dust settles and smoke clears, and this team is in the thick of things again, will it matter how they accomplished it? Or just that they have?