DocBauer

But Lewis at 3B and keep Polanco at SS, IMO. I think he has the stronger arm.

I appreciate good defense. I think it's important. I don't dismiss it. And I appreciate the OP and the intentions behind it. But I am going to disagree with the premise as presented. And not just due to salary implications for a team that needs to address the rotation first and foremost, plus adding an addition LHRP option to make a potentially great BP. For reflection sake, said this before, many times, give Sano some time. I've seen so many sluggers Twins and otherwise, who were too big, too stiff, who had stone hands, but given time turned out to be solid, if not excellent, 3B. Doesn't happen for everyone. Sano's cannon is special. He charges grounders well. Pop ups are now outs, not an adventure. While his range will always be somewhat limited, his hands are pretty soft. IMO, there is no way I'd move him at this point, especially considering all the mitigating factors. Eventually, yes, I can see him at 1B, or even, hopefully, embracing a DH role as he approaches 30. Kids like Lewis, Kirilloff and Larnach and Rooker, not traded, will have some say in roster construction moving forward. But I absolutely stick with him at 3B for now. BUT, for giggles, keeping in mind the original OP, Moose would be the guy I would target in this scenario.

The fact that there really is no true consensus is fine with me. Kepler deserves it as much as anyone. I've been a supporter and believer in Max for some time and have been just waiting for him to break through. I still think I'd vote Cruz #1 not only for production, but for leadership and example. Not so sure influence went beyond production. I hate to "rob" Kepler of AB's next season, but I'm thinking Arraez at #1, with Max hitting #4 And letting Rosario hit 6th behind Sano.

I honestly believe the Twins will look at both Cole and Strasburg. How could they not considering payroll and opportunity? Now, even 5-6yrs at $30M do they love Target Field, the young lineup, Rocco, Johnson, the FO, etc.? Or are either drawn to lower tax rates, a place they call home, etc? The Twins then have to look at the 2nd level options. Not bad, just the next tier, to go a long with other moves. Is Wheeler that guy? I'm torn between him and Bumgarner. Bumgarner has a ton of IP, and is a couple years older. But he has experience, and STILL has good velocity. Could Johnson work a few bits of magic and tweaking and have him at least close to what he was previously? Somewhat similar to Verlander finding new life in Houston? Wheeler hasn't had near the career that Bumgarner has had. But he's also about 4yrs younger. It could be easily argued that Odorizzi, acquired for next to nothing at a similar age and point in his career, would be a similar comparison. And Oddo, a hopeful, and expected re-sign, in whatever capacity, probably has less pure "stuff" than Wheeler. Playing devil's advocate, and just assuming we lose out on Cole and Strasburg, even with similar offers, is Bumgarner or Wheeler the next best choice?

Poignant, intelligent, and funny! Love it. But the reality is, Stashak was part of an unexpected movement that none of us saw coming. Did the GO? We can all extrapolate the failures of the entire team in the final series adnaseum if we want to: injury, rust, suspension, experience, etc. I don't want to dwell on that because that's not the point here. Stashak is the point. Stashak showed, in limited experience, what he is capable of. In truth, Littell could have been included in this same article. Littell came up earlier but both situations are similar. You simply can't honestly take the body of work either showed during the regular season and just dismiss potential based on what happened in a single series. Stashak, being young, and I'm including Littell, still have to earn their way. But in no way should we dismiss what we saw of them building the pen for 2020.

BIG chuckle at the proposed agent conversation! Really like to believe conversations like that won't be happening when players look at the 2019 season, the talent on hand, Target Field, Rocco and Johnson and this FO going forward.

Quoting this post rather than the last as it's shorter, lol, and still on topic. Absolutely agree the Twins system has the depth to make moves, similar to Houston. Also agree Houston has been very smart in their trades, not overpaying, even though they moved some quality ballplayers. Again, I think the Twins can and will do the same. The one caveat I would make for any team, including our beloved Twins, is the factor of luck/opportunity. Let me be more clear: when the Astros traded for Verlander, he was available. The Tigers were going nowhere. This past season there were cries for the Twins to get "their" Verlander. But really, Greinke was the only similar player available, and he had us on a no trade. Believed or not, there were reports the Twins at least called, but the conversation went nowhere. Full credit to Houston for striking when opportunity is there. Is there that kind of arm available now via trade? Who do the Twins identify as that game changer? If there is one, then I sure hope they are just as quick to strike as Houston has been on the past.

I guess I'd be wondering if any of these really were upgrades. And I'm not taking a shot at them or dismissing their worth. But were the Twins to bring back Odorizzi and Pineda...as has been often speculated/proposed by many of us...I don't know that any of these options are equal to or better than Berrios. Boyd might be if you got a full season out of him like his first half. Detroit needs young talent! The Twins have to spare. Johnson might do wonders for him. Would either team be interested in trading within the division? Gray and Musgrove offer intrigue, though I confess to knowing little about Musgrove. Both fit age wise. What kind of upside might either have? Or rather, what kind of upside do the Twins see?

I agree with almost everything you propose and your general numbers. A $1M or two one way or another doesn't really change the over all numbers, or your plan. I also agree on Oddo, but I think be is a bit cheaper than the $17M as I see an extension instead. But again a $1M or two doesn't really change things. I'm just not convinced Cron bumps from $4.8M to the proposed $7.7M. That seems a bit steep to me, but again, won't quibble over a couple $M. I do however, disagree on Harper. I think that spot is Smeltzer's to lose, though he will face competition from others on board and a flier. Not positive Harper gets protected. I love the Smith signing and believe he will be contacted. I think your numbers could be a bit high, but acceptable. But I could see a trade, perhaps, instead for a slightly cheaper option with control. The MLB mean for 2020 should be somewhere in the $150+M range, and your proposal keeps the Twins a little under that, which is very fair, and doesn't allow for a lot of long term contracts to anyone other than Miller, or said SP. The elephant in the room, as we all know, is Cole or Strasburg actually signing, even at $30M per. Despite a beautiful ballpark, a contending team and similar offer that might be expected elsewhere, are they drawn to a different city for whatever reason. Well done!

Want to like your post and agree with it...but just can't quite go there. Generally agree with your OF comment, especially RF, but I think Kepler is better than mediocre at CF. JMO, but despite solid contributions and massive improvement with the bat in 2019, I feel Adrianza is best as a versatile player who plays regularly but not daily. I am just not ready to give up on Sano at 3B, his cannon arm is valuable. Be charges the baĺl well. Pop ups are no longer an adventure. I have seen too many powerful 3B develop in to quality 3B defensively that I would take his OK defense for another year, at least, and see how he does. The biggest upgrade will hopefully be, could be, should be, continued work, coaching, experience from all involved.

This one was easy. I have always cringed about Gwynn comparisons and hyperbole,but I get it. Gwynne had more speed, and developed a little more power over time. Like a similar player of his generation, Boggs, he displayed more power when asked to, at expense of his BA. There is no question Arraez can and probably will develop more pop, if not real power. And he needs to in order to keep pitchers and defenses honest. But unless he just explodes, he should just keep doing what he has always done, and not be asked to do more. He is a hit and OB machine. He is nothing special defensively. But only 22, it's not hard to expect defensive improvement is it? Kid has instincts! He played a little SS and 3B and found himself tossed out to OF and actually played it OK. Nick your 3B idea bears discussion, and he did OK, but can his arm handle it? Unless talent of the roster...Lewis...makes him the next Marwin, I see him as the full time 2B for several years. And there is nothing wrong with that. Glad the Twins did what many of us screamed about last off season, "protect this kid!"

Nice post and we are thinking along the same lines. Thought I'd comment in bullet points. 1] I think Castro may be back on a reduced deal for a year plus. And to me it makes tons of sense for both sides. I just don't see a big offer for Castro, had bet well paid at $4-5M as a veteran playing 30-40% of the time. 2] Cron, or similar, still fits in for about $5M. When I do MY math, even with Romo re-signed, I still see approximately $60M for Oddo, Pineda and about $30M left over. 3] Even if Cole or Strasburg would say yes to $30M, we would still be awfully close to the 2019 payroll. That is before a hike in arbitration or re-sign contracts. And yet, the mythical/proposed $60M number includes some reasonable arbitration numbers. So, again, we are playing with 2019 payroll numbers, give or take a little. Now, we make a trade instead, or slide to a Wheeler or Bumgarner 2nd tier FA, there is more money on the table for flexibility in regard to extensions and such. Considering the ML mean in 2020 will again be about $150M, a number the Twins should easily be able to cover, there remains tons of flexibility. 4] I don't see Rosario being traded. At least not at this point. By himself, he doesn't bring back the SP you want/need. So why not a prospect laden trade for what you need, which is what a re-building team would be looking for. Unless you have a sort of reverse Indians/Reds deal at hand in regard to the Bauer move. Plus, with questions about Buxton remaining, and Kepler and Larnach not yet ready, there is too much of a gamble there, IMO. *Side note: despite some streaks and fighting a bum ankle late in the season, I find it humorous how easily some dismiss Rosario despite having the most productive season of his career. No matter what I'm still about 50/50 the Twins sign a major FA outside the organization vs making a 3-5 prospect deal for a SP they really like and believe in.

Just using the $60M idea, and how I've used it when building a model, plenty of room to re-sign both Oddo and Pineda. Even some money left over if we go the trade or FA route for anyone not named Stasburg or Cole. They put us about even in the event of such a signing. NOT saying that will be the payroll, just playing with that number as a cautionary budget. I don't feel bad at all with Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe and Graterol fighting for the 5th spot. (Could even see a chap flier brought on board). I just don't see Perez brought back on full option contract. But like you stated, I could see something smaller. Maybe another year with Johnson and his new cutter could make a difference.

Which is why we are here to monitor...err...correct you, lol. Thinking they both begin the season at Ft Myers???

Jorgansweet beat me to it! Increases his value to not only the Twins, but to another team would he be included in a deal.

Early in the season I stumbled on a link concerning a professor at Washington State, IIRC, who was asked to do research on the 2019 ML baseball. (No, sorry, I don't have the link). While testing was not complete, and results not to be made public until complete and turned over to the MLB powers that be, early returns suggested lower seams that produced less drag, thus greater hitting/travel distance. Baseball itself made comments earlier in the year there was no altering of the baseball, but they felt better, more consistent manufacturing techniques could create small variations in the construction. A more centered pill, tighter-lower seams, etc. So is there a conspiracy? Or is it a different ball for the playoffs due to weather, a different batch made at a different time and stored differently? Personally, I don't see a conspiracy. I see variations of factors creating variations in performance. You'd think, if anything, MLB would want the HR ball while so much attention is being focused on them for exciting ratings purposes.

Keeping in mind I like, want and appreciate good defense, my opinion is not going to be well received, but I think it bears thought. With the focus on power, launch angles, etc, plus shifts, infield defense has begun to take a back seat. It's still important and can indeed affect pitching, but the game has changed. I don't have ages readily at my disposal and have to type quickly, but Sano and Polanco are both going to be about 26yo start of next season and Arraez 23 I believe. I really believe the improvement is going to have to come from within and development of these young players. We watched Gaetti and Koskie, to name examples, stonewall 3B before turning in to good/great defensive 3B. Sano absolutely has the potential and ability to improve, even if not to those examples. With his new throwing angle and just for experience and comfort as the daily SS, might Polanco not get better? Arraez is very young. Who would you take out of the lineup to be replaced? I think SAYING Polanco or Arraez could permanently moveto 3B is much easier to say than actually make happen.

I had similar feelings of disappointment when the Yankee series was ended. Honestly, I haven't looked for blame or excuses, and have stayed out of such message boards. Injury and lack of experience on that big stage is my answer. Period. But it doesn't matter. Like you, I had an absolute BLAST all season from the radio, the TV, conversations with my dad, and TD for shared experience and game threads. Most years, none of my favorite teams win their respective championships. But it is the game itself, and hope, that keeps me coming back. And the joy and fun I am presented can never be taken from me. Nice article!

Agreed on starting in Rochester. Also agree with others he won't be targeted for a full season of starting due to IP limitations. However, a few skipped starts here and there, maybe with a bullpen appearance to take the place of throwing on the side, designated starter game or two, I think there are ways to monitor him and spread out his usage.

Thanks! I didn't remember that! Makes him more valuable to the Twins, or any other organization.

The bummer is he's out of options so there is no way for him to work on anything at Rochester. JMO, but he will be included in a trade to a team that can live with "development time" at the ML level gaining a potential steal from the Twins, OR, he will be the last bullpen arm with the expanded roster and work on things. He might even slide back to the rotation at some point. Of course, he could also surprise us all by throwing bullets next ST.

Agree on Thorpe's potential. Despite inconsistent results this season, I saw enough to believe his stuff will play, and play well, with a little more seasoning. I believe he is a legitimate 4-5 with the potential of a 3 if he really gets the art of pitching down. That may sound like a stretch, but there were some appearances when he made a few batters freeze or look silly. Really, Rochester and Chattanooga should both have loaded rotations. I notice neither Wells was listed. One hasn't started his comeback yet, but I think both deserve mention for the future. Could see both at AA.

Agreed. And it makes a ton of sense for both sides. It's also why I play the "amateur" game of GM. And why I recognise a $150M mean payroll vs $130ishM payroll to work with to allow flexibility and extensions plus sustainability.

This absolutely! TBD FA or trade Beerios Odorizzi Pineda Battle between all the kids. And Rochester should be DEEP in depth and potential!

I'm in favor of bringing Cton back, but that number seems a little high. I think he was only at $4.8M in 2019. That would be quite a jump. Obviously Dyson will be a no-go at that number. 50/50 he is just allowed to walk vs a 2yr split deal. The rest seems to make sense.