DocBauer

At the moment, infield is actually a bigger need with Marwin out. We have some bench warmers that can actually play a legitimate OF defensively to give someone a rest. Adrianza and Arraez can and have played some OF as well. But really, we're probably better off using them in their current role and using the spare part OF for what they are. I understand the idea of bringing the talented and hot Kirilloff up for a shot. And by no means am I asking the Twins to NOT "go for it". But still, is a young AA OF really going to be the savior at this point? Is it really worth starting his clock at this point on a hope and prayer he is ready to ride a magic wave of opportunity through September and October? It would be a great story. I just dont see it happening.

Good news: There is defense, speed and maybe a little contact and OB ability there. Bad news: Questionable hitting at best and virtually zero power.

Of course, I know that episode from just the one clip, lol!

Agreed as he'd be up around now, maybe even before August ended. But...and this is no slight to Davis...he would only be up because the Twins needed to go to their arguably 6-7-8 OF. I mean, Marwin is the 4th OF. Cave is the 5th. Adrianza and even Arraez can play the OF, but with injuries, it could be argued who is/was the 6th/7th OF between Wade and Davis. And it may not have been either if Raley hadn't hurt his ankle so badly. Just crazy! A little hard not to be despondent right now.

Awesome article, Seth. Thanks for this, and all the write ups you do on the milb players! I know Ober has yet to make a single appearance above AA, but when you look at the sheer dominance he has shown at 2 levels this season, you almost have to speculate at a potential ML appearance in 2020, despite inexperience. They key is, obviously health. I keep wondering, does his size create injury? Does he need better conditioning or an increase in muscle mass to keep him balanced and steady? Or is it more a flexibility issue where something like yoga or Pilates keeps him centered with a healthy base? I don't have a clue. But when you have a kid who can throw and dominate the way he is when healthy, you'd better figure it out.

I liked a couple posts because they were smartly thought out. But I have to agree with Spycake overall. We still have about 3 weeks for Buxton, Kepler and Gonzalez to be fully healthy. And no matter how much I love Kirilloff and believe in his future he's really going to be better than any of them, or Cave at this point?

Concentrating on what I believe will happen and what I believe is true concerning the FO, including my opinion on how they look at things. I am simply not going to get in to an ownership debate. A couple quick points that I think are relevant: 1] The new regime HAS made FA a priority when they felt it was right to do so. A year ago it didn't work, at all. This year, it did, and in a pretty big way. (This excludes Castro and Pineda, to a degree, as they were previous year moves). Despite carrying opinions, they were seriously in on Darvish until the extra year came in to play. They haven't done anything to "break the bank", but they also haven't been shy about playing in the FA pool. However... 2] They have also made it clear they are looking for sustainability for the franchise. This includes everything from analytics, to coaching changes, to player acquisition, to the draft and milb development, and INCLUDES FA to augment the roster. Regarding the listed FA, I just feel Cole will be one of those guys heavy hitters look at, and simply outbid the Twins. We can talk about money off the books and total payroll, but I am speculating someone doing 5-6yrs at more than $20M per because they feel they can absorb any future financial "loss". Just too rich for the Twins. Hamels has had a nice career, but is 35. Ryu could be interesting, but is 32, and recent history though limited, has seemingly shown the Asian ballplayers just aren't very interested. Wheeler is a pretty solid option, only 29yo, and has really only had 1 bad year. He's usually good for 180IP, but his ERA is a little high this season. I'm always a little Leary of NL pitchers with higher ERA as I expect it to go up in the AL. Is this season just an aberration? He has 3 out of 5 seasons with a low 3 ERA. I'm interested! Assuming Cole is off the table, the guy I'm interested in the most, I think, is Bumgarner. And not just because he is LH and has WS HERO tattooed on his resume. I didn't like him as an potentially expensive rental player. And his ERA is a little in 2019, but he's still taking his turn daily, still averaging almost a K per IP, and is an experienced competitor. (Some might argue he is too much of a competitor at times). This might be the perfect time in his career for a change of scenery, and to work with someone like Johnson, on a mostly young and dynamic team. I am 50/50 the Twins will make a FA signing of someone like Wheeler or Bumgarner. Watching how they work, I slightly lean to them making a trade for an under 30 or 30ish SP with a couple years of control. No, I don't have a name to throw out there at this time. My thoughts and reflection tell me they would do all they can to keep their top 3-4 prospects in house, but open up the rest of the system for a 3-5 player deal to bring in a guy who is good, and they think is a tweak or two away from being great. As to what is "on hand": I still hesitate to say they will offer Odorizzi a QO. I like him. I'd like him back. He fits in as a talented veteran SP who is, generally, lights out for 5+ IP as a #3. Unless the market suddenly explodes again, he's worth some sort of 2, 2 + 1, maybe even a 3yr deal for anywhere between $12-15M per. Considering his recent suspension, and previous injury history, weighted against previous production when healthy, and what he has done this season, Pineda isn't far behind. But new events and past history should have available for a little less than Odorizzi. Gibson is a wild card. And I feel sorry for the guy. I'm not sure any recent Twin has had more differing opinion and sometimes vitriol sent his way. Forgetting his first call up...coming off TJ surgery, probably tiring and being a rookie...his first two seasons were very solid! Then he, and THE ENTIRE TEAM imploded in 2016. But it seems like some want to focus all the disappointment and blame on him for that season. The first half of his 2017 season was also bad but then suddenly, demotion, tweaks, a different mind-set he was a new man for the rest of the season and for 2018. And then he battles a bad illness loses tons of weight and strength, but battles back to pitch pretty well until this latest illness. Gibson is a huge wild card, but probably had cheaply even if be finishes the hear decently. Then there is Perez. Yet another wild card. I was completely against the move. Then he got off to that fantastic start. When he struggled, I even found myself actually defending him because I still velocity, SO, and 1-2-3 IP mixed in with bad stuff. And 3 of his last 4 starts have been pretty nice. His first year with the Twins, first year with Johnson, first year learning his new cutter, how he finishes 2019 will determine whether his next year is picked up. Someone stated he would be far too expensive for a 5th SP. But is he really that costly? And considering his start, and recent trajectory upward again, if he finishes solid, wouldn't he be smart to bring back? 2020 ROTATION, IMO: Berrios FA/Trade Odorizzi Pineda or Gibson Perez Waiting in the wings and challenging: Graterol Thorpe Smeltzer

First thought, just for an instant, was another Randball article. I am not going to crucify Pineda or call him a cheater or anything like. Not enough affirmative information. But I will say he was silly or down right stupid in his thinking. In this day and age, you just dont just TAKE something without it being prescribed and reported to the ML office. Other than that, all I have is; "Smeltzer, Thorpe, you're up next. Do the best you can and go get 'em boys!"

Interesting to me, and I could be wrong, but when I look at thjs list, including past winners, I believe I count 10 pitchers either drafted by this FO or traded for. Impressive if I'm even close in memory and math, lol. Just a few comments: 1] Didn't Chalmers come from the A's organization? Regardless, I know he's coming off a lost surgery season. But he is looking like a potential steal. 2] Did we fleece Miami with Romo...who I am betting will be re-signed on a 1yr deal...and then getting Vallimont? He sure has looked good so far. 3] As I stated in another OP about him, I want to be excited about Canterino because his is a college pitcher with a big arm and potential, if he can find a change of pace pitch. But I keep hearing about a high effort delivery and wonder if that is actual. I mean, if it's comfortable for him, is it really high effort? 4] Surprised to see Stewart on this list, even if honorable mention and good numbers. I am not blasting the kid, but what is it the FO keeps seeing? Overall, he just hasn t shown anything really worthy of sticking around. Especially with arms on the rise. 5] Ober absolutely deserves this award. What he has done all season is pretty spectacular! I ABSOLUTELY agree with you, Seth, that age shouldn't be a mitigating factor in regard to prospect status. However, Ober is 24, despite being a fast riser, and only in his 2nd year of full season ball. But IL time is a factor. And despite that, he has performed tremendously well! Are we looking at a steal who will continue to blossom and deal and be considered a high end prospect? Or are we looking at a mature, injury plagued arm who has simply dominated by age and experience? I am making no judgements, only asking just how good of a prospect this kid could be. Right now, healthy, what he has done in 2019, he would seem a candidate to vault in top 20 prospect status.

First, I am going to do something I don't normally do and be self-indulgent. I am going to quote myself from the game thread just because I liked It! LOL "So this happened. And the baseball gods looked down and smiled and said; this was good!" 1] Despite a record setting offensive BOMBS squad, this team seems to be able to come through. I don't knkw season numbers, but it seems clutch hitting and 2 out hits have suddenly become a norm. 2] Is it just me, or has the defense really tightened up the past few games? I'm not just talking Eddie's throw at the end of this game, but I've seen a lot of really great plays of late, including in the loss Wednesday. 3] I ABSOLUTELY can't believe I'm saying this...because I again didn't like the signing initially...bht we might have a little something with Perez. He was lights out to begin the season. But even when he struggled, we saw SO and 1-2-3 innings mixed in with his struggles. Except for one horrible performance, he is suddenly looking much like the pitcher he was the first couple of months this season. Whoever called the pickoff play at 2B should be fined in the Kangaroo court! But I think the only reason Perez didn't come out for another inning was the long wait on the bench. 4] Can we all just finally admit that no RP will ever be perfect? That any RP will have a bad game here or There? And that Duffey and May are actually pretty damn good? 5] Our most talented SP is struggling with tip offs or delivery right now, and may need to skip a start to just reflect and work and relax, but we went in to the awkward bandbox in Boston and took 2 of 3 against a powerful and contending team with a "bullpen" game and a HUGE start from a guy suddenly finding himself again and getting some key performances from hitters, players, and the bullpen. All is pretty much right in the Twins world right Now! Bring on the next challenger!

I like your post but yet, I struggle to agree. I LOVE Astudillo and what he brings to this team both on the field and off of it. I feel that those who point to his offensive numbers aren't paying close enough attention. Yes, he struggled at times, failed and failed at times, when coming back from his 2 stints on the IL. But he has produced when healthy, or at other times and other words, when he got AB and got back in a groove after returning from the IL. And his versatility should not be dismissed, he is at least solid whenever and wherever he plays. And that's important. Especially over a long season. But this is a short series, hopefully 2, and I just don't think he fits. IF, the Twins decide on an extra position player vs a pitcher, still comes down to be or Cave. Versatility and production, I believe BOTH Adrianza and Schoop make it. Hence my listed roster opinion above. Just don't see any way you don't keep Adrianza for defense, versatility and what he's done at the plate. And while Arreaz may have displaced Schoop as the primary 2B, you just can't deny his production, especially vs LH pitching.

Gibson is a wild card. Some time off to regain strength, he could easily push Perez to the pen, and that's NOT a slight to the Perez who started the season and who has looked good to very good lately with a 1 game WOOF start. I understand Miller could be a 2019 version of Jarvis Brown as a defensive replacement and PR option. [Kudos if you remember back far enough to remember Brown]. But Brown was a decent prospect with at least a little ML game time. Do we really keep him over Adrianza? At this point, I say no. Agreed Astudillo doesn't fit for a couple short series. He's just missed too much time to reliably replace other options on hand. [And I'm a believer and a fan]. Agree with Littell in the pen. State yet AGAIN I love Graterol, but let me see him pitch in September successfully before I include him. Otherwise, this is an awesome audition to get ready for 2020. One more time: Rosario Buxton Kepler Cruz Sano Polanco Arraez Cron Gonzalez Adrianza Schoop Garver Castro Cave is a deserving wild card, but no room, IMO. Berrios Pineda Odorizzi Gibson (if he rebounds) Roger's Dyson Romo Duffey May Perez Littell ? The last spot belongs to Thorpe TODAY. I need to see more of Graterol making the jump successfully before I include him. Both make it if Gibson just can't get his strength back in time and Perez moves in to the rotation. I believe Cave is a wild card if the Twins decide on a 3 man rotation or a 7 man pen. I don't see that as of right now. Just for giggles, you want an extreme wild card? 9 man pen and Graterol just isn't ready and Stashek gets a spot.

There have been a number of side arm and submarine pitchers who have had quality careers. That doesn't mean Hildenberger will be one of them. I hope he is. I hope he figures it out and the "good" Hildenberger we have seen in the past becomes the guy we see going forward. But for 2020 as I see no way he suddenly becomes a fixture for the post season this year. Whether it be mechanics or teams adapting, the truth is we've seen a pair of, roughly, half seasons, where he has looked very good and a pair of half seasons where he just looks awful. One way or another, I'm betting he is back next ST. But push is going to come to shove in 2020 as far as his Twins career. But September will only be an audition as to his return next year.

Obviously, this is all speculation. But I will say that any Yankee "jinx", IMO, is over. Different seasons and different players involved. This team doesn't seem to have any fear or doubts about themselves. It's a long season, and things change for all teams, but if I'm not mistaken, didn't the Twins win the season series against Houston? I don't knkw if there is an "ideal" situation. You still have to face a very good team and win. But if I could write the story, the Twins would play Houston first and win. They would then face the Evil Empire from N.Y. and beat up their starting staff and make the WS, exercising any remaining ghosts of the past.

I think we are on the same page, as are most of us in this thread. There are a couple outcomes for Eddie over the next couple of seasons. 1] He is traded for pitching help. [i don't buy this as of yet due to a lack of suitable replacement] 2] He signs an extension, improvements made or not, and continues to be a key member of the team. [He could always be traded later] 3] He is still under control for 2 mkre seasons and could end up walking away BUT the Twins have the talented duo of Larnach and Kirilloff more than ready. Obviously I don't have an answer or crystal ball. Were I able to write the script, he would sign an extension similar to Polanco and Kepler. The Twins would keep their top 4 prospects and trade from the rest of their top 30 prospects for a controllable SP and make a hard choice, potentially, in a year or two when Cron and Cruz may be gone.

Yes, it's too early, but you and I and everyone already know that, lol. Just too many things to play out over the next month at this point. Including, perhaps most importantly, the strength and health of Gibson. But I am willing to play along! First, I am going to make 2 assumptions. 1] Buxton will be ready to go. 2] A little time off will give Gibson time to refresh and be ready as well. The Twins will go with 13 players, with Cave and Astudillo out. They will go with a 4 man rotation, which will include Gibson. That leaves an 8 man bullpen: Rogers Dyson Romo Duffey May Perez Littell That leaves 1 spot left. My gut tells me Thorpe as a 3rd LH who can fill a couple different roles from long/middle/situational. Graterol is the wild card in all of this. I do not doubt his talent or potential. But I can't include him until I see performing at a high level over the next month while adjusting to the league and the new ball.

I'm very excited about Canterino because,well, I want to be! Lol Rice has turned some very good arms over the years. He's a more "proven" college arm rather than a HS prosoect. The velocity seems to be there, and reports are his breaking ball is good and can be very good. Both should improve with time and coaching. Now, if he can just find a really nice change of some sort.... I fully admit I have not yet seen video of his delivery. But like everyone else, I've read he has a "high effort" delivery that concerns some in regard to consistency and possible injury. I guess my question/concern is, is it REALLY "high effort" or does it just LOOK that way? In other words, if it works, if he can repeat it, if it feels comfortable to him, is it REALLY "high effort"?

Great post Damn! I think you sum things up perfectly. As good as Eddie is...and he's damn good...he could take his game another level with just a slightly improved degree of discipline. He doesn't have to change his game or re-invent himself, just tone down some of the crazy out of the zone swings. Now, at times, those crazy swings connect for a hit or extra base hit. That's the kind of strength and talent he has. But just a few less swing and miss/SO and a few more BB and he just becomes that more dangerous. I think bringing up Larnach and Kirilloff is fair. Rosario is proven and each of them remain prospects. Both seem to have quality hit tools, comparable or better than Eddie. Both seem to make better contact and have a more disciplined approach. I think it's safe to say neither has Eddie's speed. Can they match his 30ish HR power? Just too early to say. Barring a surprise, at some point, it just seems 1 of these 3 will be moved for SP help. It could happen as early as this off season, though I hope not. It is my sincere HOPE that the depth of the system will be enough to add a quality arm to go along with Berrios, 2 re-signs, and roll with Graterol-Thorpe-Smeltzer-Perez to fill things out. This would be ideal, allowing for another year for both Larnach and Kirilloff to become MLB ready and then see how things play out from there.

I am about 99.9% certain I've heard reference to his ankle still bothering him. Without healthy legs, any batter may struggle some. But as was pointed out earlier in the thread, really kind of hard to blast someone hitting .280, pushing 30HR and having 92RBI with almost a month to go. Like any hitter, Rosario will have hot and cold streaks. IMO, it is the very nature of how he plays, and those crazy swings that sometimes connect, and sometimes don't, that seem to exaggerate his highs and lows over others. I don't really like much not to like about Eddie. But as bug of a fan as I am, I think it remains realistic that just a fraction more discipline could make a very good, very dangerous hitter downright lethal.

I want to be sure we don't understate how good Thorpe looked for those 3 IP. Kid has a good arm and a good future. Still wouldn't be surprised if he makes the post season roster as an extra LH arm.

No. They will absolutely offer him a raise and an extension. I believe they will offer him 2yrs, or a 2 + 1 that us easy to hit. They might even offer him 3yrs. He will have the choice of financial security and a fair raise, guessing somewhere around $12-14M per. Despite needs for SO everywhere, the FA market has clearly changed. And past history would state that he is a good pitcher, but not a $18-25M per front of the rotation starter. He is borderline outstanding, most days, for 5+ IP. And I'd love to have him back. The only way he would get a QO is because the FO would expect him to decline and potentially gather a draft pick. I just don't think this will happen. FWIW, I believe the FO will make a similar move with Pineda. I believe they will make a somewhat smaller and "safer" offer to Gibson, especially considering he is a bit older and now facing some health concerns. Gibson is probably more a 1 or 1+ with a possible 2yr offer but no more. None of this precludes a trade or FA option to be added. But I believe they will hope to keep 2 of Odorizzi, Pineda and Gibson on board.

While a big baseball fan, I am poorly read when it comes to many here at TD. And I confess to not knowing Ben Lindbergh, but I ABSOLUTELY agree with his premise on RP. That being saidm there is nothing inherently wrong with signing a FA RP you need, like and believe in. To say never would be a gross generalization and a generally wrong approach. FA has shown us over the years to bring good and bad, at ALL positions, and remains a useful tool to build a team. But recent history, including this last off season, has shown us the volatility of signing said BP options, from a position that tends to be volatile regardless. Reflecting just on the history of the Twins in their "new era"...and to me that is since the Pohlad's bought the team...they have won 2 WS titles and had numerous winning/contending teams by building bullpens, good bullpens, in a number of different ways. (This is NOT about coming up short some years, just a reflection). The Twins traded for Reardon, Aguillera and Nathan. ONE was a proven closer, one a solid SP who had a few injuries and disappointments, and the third was a position player turned RP who was traded for as an up and coming set-up man. Just to name a FEW of the guys who provided depth in those pens you would have guys like Berenguer, Atherton, Willis, Trombley, Gurrier, Guardado and many, many others. Just a smattering of a few names. Some were low level FA signings, some converted starters from other organizations, and some converted starters from within the Twins organization. Some went on to be closers themselves while one, not even listed, was a famous Rule V pick who ended up being a multi Cy Young SP. I say again there is nothing wrong with making a major FA signing for a team's bullpen if you feel good about it. Nor do I feel it is wrong, or a waste, to draft a strong armed college RP or two for the purpose of keeping him and developing him as such. (I think we can all agree that the mad experiment of making a college RP a SP is just that, mad). I think the FO has built...is building...the Twins bullpen the right way currently. I was disappointed, vocally so, that they didn't add anyone but Parker despite an obvious need. Reflection has shown they were right. While Parker didnt work out, initially he wasnt bad. In fact, he was no worse, and better than some, in regard to the FA class available. The FO, and new coaching staff, cobbled things together after a few "hopes" didn't turn out and still had a "decent" pen for the first half. They also worked with May, with Duffey, and were aggressive with auditions to guys like Littell and others. They cut bait when the time seemed right and brought in a pair of proven, experienced arms to deepen the bullpen to its current situation. As has been stated previously in different posts it seems most/all fans/teams are unhappy with their bullpen. Such is the nature of the game today, I suppose. And yet, despite being a spot that needed to be upgraded for the long haul AND post season, augmented by a surprisingly healthy and strong rotation, the numbers indicate the Twins bullpen has been largely effective all season. And yet, said bullpen has indeed changed. Rogers, Dyson, Romo, Duffey, May form a pen now that is very different from when the season started. And while I would not be so optimistically blind to state this new pen is "lights out", to deny the performance and production would be equally blind. ALl but Romo will be back next season. Honestly, would anyone object or be surprised if Romo was brought back next season on a 1yr deal? Brian has made comments in various commentaries about going "all in", or at least going deeper in to building pitching depth. I concur. And while I feel this team absolutely has need for another quality LH for the pen...Perez, Thorpe and Smeltzer could help in the short term, there remains a definitive need for that one arm. And no matter what he may do in September, or the post season, Graterol is a rotation piece to build on. So are at least 2 of the LH I just mentioned. But when I look at those 5 listed, and see the development of Littel, the hope for Alcala, the hope still for Romero possibly, the early returns on guys like Poppen and Stashak, I can't help but feel optimistic they are building the pen the right way.

1] Very pleased by the opportunity for Graterol. I still think it's more about experience for 2020 but who knows, he might catch fire. 2] A little surprised by no Alcala, Hildenberger or Harper. Then again, Rochester still has a couple games to play so you can't bring up everyone. 3] Anyone else a little surprised Stewart was brought up? 4] This news about Gibson explains a lot. It felt all season he kept running out of gas about every other start. Not including just lacking endurance in general at the start of the season while recovering from his initial illness/diagnosis. But I never realized how thin he looked until his last start and a spotlight seemed to be shone on it. Really hope he can learn to manage the condition. I've had similar issues most of my life, though to a much less degree. It is definitely present in my family. And when it flares up, fatigue can hit pretty quickly.

Absolute bummer of a game. Good news: The Twins set a record. Bad news: They lost because Perez had a really bad game. Good news: The Twins didn't lose any ground. Plus, they battled. Perspective: Again, they lost no ground. Perez has looked much better lately until today. Even if a team wins 100 games, they still lose 62. Our 5th SP just had nothing today. He adds to the 62. It's one game. Disappointing, but just one game.

Did a little digging in regards to stats for RP on different AL teams. Found some interesting comparisons, though I don't know if this thread is going to die or not. PITCHER ERA IP AVG WHIP BB SO Britton 2.15 54 .188 1.21 31 45 Clippard 2.47 51 .176 .80 10 50 Harris 1.74 52 .209 1.01 13 52 Duffey 2.74 46 .209 1.11 14 60 May 3.20 51 .194 1.16 23 62 I chose Britton, Clippard and Harris rather deliberately. (Harris, from Houston, could be argued somewhat due to the injury to Pressly). I chose these 3 deliberately because they are on top AL contending teams with reputed strong bullpens. I also chose them, rather deliberately, as overall game appearances and IP marked each as the #3 option in their respective pens. It could be argued, back and forth, that pre and post acquisition of Dyson and Romo, that each of Duffey and May were/are the 3rd-5th option in the bullpen. This not to state the Twins have a lethal pen. But I think it offers up additional perspective just how good Duffey and May have been this season. EVERY RP will allow runs, have bad days, etc. And as has been quoted, it seems nobody is ever truly happy with their team's pen. But look how the Twins 3-5 options compare in this sample to other top teams proposed #3 BP option.