DocBauer

SO much about this debate on Arraez and Gordon I like and find interesting. And I think both sides of the aisle here are smart with their opinions. And let us not forget, at least in regard to the TD rankings here in the OP, we are talking a neck and neck debate. Things change. The fortunes of young prospects change. Sticking only with infield comparisons, it was not so long ago Polanco was questionable for various reasons, offensively and especially defensively. Now, I am NOT opening up a debate/ perspective on Polanco, just using him as an example. NOBODY can seriously debate that Arreaz has a better hit tool than Gordon. At the very least, at this point in their careers. But scouts and prospect rankings are based on tools and potential. I am no expert, to be sure. But we are talking about one guy who has more speed, more overall athleticism, SS potential/ability, and what scouts see as more pop/power than a hit machine prosoect. Those reports and observations are real. Now, it doesn't mean Gordon WILL BE the better player. It only means his tools equate to a potentially better overall player. BOTH of these guys have slight frames and need to add muscle. BOTH can. BOTH can work on arm strength and hands and positioning to make them better defensively. Right now, today, health and hit tool has Arreaz with the Twins. And I am thrilled by what I see thus far in SSS. But with a good start to 2018, in case you forgot, Gordon might have been brought up before Arreaz if he hadn't made a trip to the IL. This conversation may be entirely different had said injury not happened. It is a very real possibility we would be talking about Gordon as our 2B next season and Arreaz as trade bait. I am reminded of Jay Bell, a couple decades ago, who seemed to disappoint before being traded and carved out a very nice career as a 2B/SS elsewhere. Gordon could flop! He may never hit as well as Arraez, and I'd bet he won't. But by next season, he could be better defensively, and even more versatile/valuable as a result, with more speed and just as much pop/power or more. To be clear, I like both kids a lot. Would be nice to keep both, but guessing one will be gone soon. But long term, debating one is clearly a superior prospect over the other at this time is a bit of a fools errand. I just hope whichever one stays is the right choice by the FO.

Very interesting post Mike, and something that's been on my mind for a couple weeks now as I've seen a few games with "dumb" errors that I swear I didn't see earlier in the season. And I'm going to agree with you and Platoon that baseball defence is darn near impossible to accurately measure. I mean, what if 3 or 4 guys are truly outstanding defensive players by any metric and observation, and make unbelievable plays at times, but the rest of a normal lineup is very average. As a TEAM, a few guys could make the metrics look good. But what if your entire, regular lineup is nothing but average at best, but catches what they can get to, and don't make silly mistakes? Overall, that team could rank high in metrics as a team, but do next to nothing to make a DIFFERENCE on a game to game basis. I ran a simple search and pulled up a few sites to see what they had to say, based on how they quantify things. ESPN and FOX both had the Twins at 18, just below average, but not terrible. As close as some teams are, about average in comparison. Baseball Reference, however, seemed to use a different algorithm by a culmination of all positions and Wins Above Average, which I believe would be their version on defensive WAR. They had the Twins ranked 3rd in MLB behind the Dodgers and Astros. In any sport, at any level, I believe in strong defense. Again, how do you accurately measure that? Maybe I'm just old school, but beyond any statistic you want to use, I still believe in they Eye Test. There is simply no way to deny what you actually see! I was very surprised by the number of errors attributed to Cron, for instance, in your OP. I have seen a couple bad plays or throws...they happen...but his defense has been good to outstanding virtually every game I have watched. Schoop has impressed me time and again with fine defense at 2B, but I also witnessed a handful of just bad plays a couple weeks ago where it just seemed he tried to hard to make a GREAT play, instead of the right play, and threw the ball away. Does that make him a poor defensive player, day by day when I watch what he does consistently? Or a good defensive 2B who made a handful of poor decisions trying too hard? Day in day out, what my EYES tell me is this is a good to very good defensive team, overall, who had a rather bad stretch over about a 10 game streak a week or so ago. Just my opinion, of course.

Gordon vs Arraez: An interesting debate on the two. I don't think anyone here is ranking Gordon where they are because he was the 5th player selected. I think he was the 5th player selected because of his tools and potential. From everything reported, here and elsewhere, Gordon is better defensively with a better arm, more speed, and more pop. We have been lead to believe Arreaz is a "decent" 2B and that's pretty much it. And yet the Twins have been playing him all across the field. Is this desperation? Or are they seeing real improvement in his defense across the board? Speaking of potential only, Gordon wins 4 of 5 categories with Arraez clearly the better hitter. That DOES NOT mean Arraez can't/won't be the better player with defensive improvement and more pop/power through maturation. I'm glad to have both, at least for now. Personally, I never thought this was Gordon's year for a ML appearance, unless it was very late. I've always thought he needed a full year at Rochester and some more physical development with 2020 being his season. Rortvedt vs Jeffers: personally, I'd have Rortvedt higher than Jeffers. He's a year younger and already a quality defensive catcher, reportedly, and getting better. His bat appears solid and there is budding power. No question Jeffers is the better and more powerful hitter, at least at this point, and probably potentially. It all comes down to how good Jeffers is defensively now, and potentially. We seem to hear mixed things in this regard. Kind of seems as though the Twins like and believe in his defense but outside sources are not so sold. Thorpe: I'm still a big believer. I hate to keep saying these things, but 23yo in his first full season of AAA is NOT old, especially considering the two missed seasons. From a pure experience and player development perspective, he's like a 21yo. Think about that. He's been inconsistent so far this season, but the SO numbers are encouraging. And I'd be more disappointed, or worried, if he began the year hot and then struggled. Instead, the opposite seems to be the case. He's improving as the season goes along. Wallner: I'm sure Wallner is a fine young talent and worthy of his draft selection and his ranking here. What I find interesting is the timing of his selection. He seems to be a perfect system replacement for either Rooker or Larnach, either of whom could be included in a deal/deals for pitching help.

Tough loss to be sure. But Perez looked his new self again and the pen was outstanding.

Were I a trade partner for the Twins, I'd be jumping on Blenkenhorn and Rortvedt. I'd really like to keep Rortvedt, but if the right package was there, you'd have to include him. Disappointed in Alcala. I know his future spoke about a BP role, just really thought/hoped he would figure something out. I think it's the right time to move him to the pen and just make the adjustment.

Twins win!! Twins win!! Best part of things! I didn't see the game, so I missed the whole bunt situation. So I will only comment in general BB terms. The bunt is going away in MLB, as is the SB, based on everything from BP usage to shifts and launch angles and HR production. But there is a place for all things. And all things are cyclical. There is still a time and place for a bunt in this game. Perhaps Rocco needs to perform a "Kelly" and have the team work on a few fundamentals for when it's needed. Also frustrates me that a team with so many good athletes available can't steal a base. I get having such a powerful lineup you don't want to risk giving up an out. And this team really hustles for the extra base and generally runs the bases well. But there is nothing wrong with the occasional bunt or SB to put the pressure on the opposing team. Especially when today's game is not looking for those things. Crazy about the pen! We need help, internally or externally. But crazy how bad they looked for a few games, and yet have rebounded. Baseball is a crazy game!

I like Schoop a LOT! He bas a great personality, seems to be a great teammate, and plays very nice defense despite a couple recent gaffes when it seemed he tried too hard to make a play. He is a decent hitter with crazy power. He bas rebounded nicely from his injury plagued 2018, and has shown now, and previously, what he is capable of. I feel his best years are actually ahead of him. And I'd love to see him re-signed. And if he is not, I'm afraid there will be a lot of angst about woulda/coulda/shoulda. But the reality is you have to have a complete team. And in this market...please don't bring in the tired old ownership arguement again...you do have certain limitations. The Twins have additional extensions be considered. They have a couple decisions to make regarding the rotation for next season. Schoop just might not fit in. Unless he is traded...and were I a trade candidate team for the Twins I would have to consider him...i would strongly consider Arreaz for 2B next season. And while he may have a SSS at the ML level, you just can't discount his hit ability. You have to believe he will develop at least a little more pop, if not power, as he matures. A few games ago, there was much made about comments from Dick and Bert about how Arreaz seemed to survey the field as he came to bat. And this was dismissed and laughed about by most as hyperbole. But is it really? This guy has raked at every level, and has shown at the ML level that he knows how to hit and has an idea when he comes to the plate. One thing I find interesting is how we've been told he is a natural 2B, and that's it. And that may indeed be true. But Rocco has been OK tossing him out there at different spots. I really don't know how his defense plays at this point. And I doubt most of us do either. Starting 2B or utility player to begin his career? How much pop/power might he develop? How much plate discipline can he develop for OB sake? All questions to be answered. But you simply don't hit the way he has in his entire milb career, or hit the way he has thus far at the ML level, SSS understood, unless you actually have a HIT tool.

DMAN, liked your post but decided not to copy for brevity sake. (That's really saying something for ME, LOL) I don't want to speak out of turn for Seth, or anyone else, but I suspect Gonsalves is rated higher...partially due to not being downgraded due to injury...because his build and velocity is bigger and a couple MPH better on average. He also has more time at AAA. And even though he was hit and cold in 2018, there were stretches where he was awfully good. But I hear and see your point 100%. Both guys just have the "pitchability" factor that should never be ignored. I'm also with you on Raley. I even made some statements early in the season that I felt Raley was a better overall prospect than Rooker. And that's NOT a shot at Rooker, who probably has even more power, but Raley seems to have way more positional flexibility. For goodness sake, even in ST they put him in CF. Seems to me he's "similar" to Kepler in many regards, but probably not as natural in CF. Seems like Diaz has been around FOREVER. And then I see he's only 22, at AA, maybe having his best season ever, and has matured mentally and physically. He keeps this up, he could be top 20 by season's end, despite depth in the system. Disappointed we probably won't see Canterino this year. But it makes sense. I wont use tbe word "abused", but most college SP log a lot of IP already when drafted between their season and various "off season" leagues they appear in. I just don't know enough about Celestino to comment. Simply going to trust the informed TD staff on this one. But would love to hear more about projections regarding him.

I believe the Twins can and will shoot higher than Hendricks. But just for fun, I looked at his basic numbers since he became SO in 2015. Keep in mind these numbers are slightly skewed due to on incredible SO/BB ratio in 2015 and only a, almost, half season in 2019. 3.30 ERA/ 1.227 WHIP/ 4.01 SO-BB/ 9.94 K-9/ .241 BA Nothing earth shattering, but those are fine numbers. He wouldn't be my first choice, but if the A's decide to on, he would be a cheap and useful addition.

Grrrr.....was attempting to quote point #2 about the number of middle to in pitches being yanked foul and blew it somehow. Parker, to me that goes back not only to his late "cocking" of his hands, but also the sense he is leaning forward in his stance. Not saying he is off balance, but his left shoulder seems to be tilted in and down. To me, that would seem he is having a hard time opening up quickly enough to barrell up on those balls and drive them straight and true SOMEWHERE. Do you feel that his late cock of the hands is a device to just mash the ball? He has so much natural strength, I would think a slightly more "upright" stance and earlier placement of the hands would allow much quicker reaction time, as stated, but drive the middle in pitches so much better. Might also allow him to lay off the outside stuff more. Forget covering the plate when down in the count, if your whole body stance is focused downward those outside pitches would inevitably look more reachable when they are not. Your analysis is outstanding! But with all due respect, shouldn't Rowson and the entire analytics staff be able to see these same things? Maybe you need to apply for, at the least, a part time job working for our beloved Twins.

Agreed 100%. But the Allen signing does nothing to preclude real movement. Remember all of those FA RP that were on the market? Most of them have been injured or poor. And Allen was one of the guys, me included, that a lot of us were pining for and expected. Maybe it was wrong time and wrong place for him. Maybe he's just toast. But maybe he just needs a different time and place and the Twins see something. Just a flier at this point.

I was working today so only caught a few glimpses of the game, checked in on the Box and game thread after the fact. Take that for WIW and let me make some points. You KNOW I get long winded. (Special shout out to Vanimal, and he knows why, lol) 1] 25yr old Berrios is not an ACE. Think about that for a moment. Think about what we have seen from him previously, what we know about him, and seen in his last 2 starts/no decisions. Just how good could he be in the next year or two? Again, 25yo. (But he's owed a couple easy wins at this point) 2] Bullpen: The pen needs help! We all know this. And recently, the pen had a bad stretch. But go back again and read about the recent stretch the pen has bad in the OP. You don't win 50 games at this point if your pen in worthless. The sky has not fallen yet. Get over it. We need an "Atlas" or 2 for the long haul, but pieces of the heavens have not been cascading down to create Armageddon 2. 3] Rogers is a stud! He blew a save. He allowed a big hit from a LH batter for the first time since 2017. Hey, I will take that. May has been a disappointment to me. He is a disappointment because of his ability and his acceptance of his role and what he did last season. As much praise as we heap on Johnson, deservedly so, May should be a special project. For some reason his breaking ball just hasn't been there consistently. His WHIP is high due to BB. But his season numbers are not terrible, and his last 7 games numbers are pretty solid. Regardless of acquisitions made, May rounding in to form makes a real difference. 4] Cave and Sano. Cave showed last season what he could do. For whatever reason, be got off to a slow start. He raked at Rochester recently and stunk when he came up. Pressing? One game doesn't make up for pitifull performance. But to just bash him is not realistic at this point. This is even more true for Sano. Look, I'm a fan and believer in Sano's ability and potential. And even I am frustrated as sh*t by his most recent performance! Even as a believer I am thinking he should be sent down for a time. But his re-dedication has been documented. Great! But he also missed all of ST, and IMO, was brought up too soon. But here he is. It is sad to say he is a work in progress, but reality will tell you that he is. A couple big hits the last couple of days does not make up for some very, very poor performances of late. But perhaps it is a start to confidence. Hope so. Can we at least give him a full season to adjust, grow and adapt with his new dedication? If not....should have just given up on Polanco, Kepler, and Rosario a season ago. Off my soapbox.

I hear ya Mike. But let's not forget prospects, even in a top system, arrive in waves. It's a natural ebb and flow. Despite having time under their belts right now, this team is built on a collection of prospects where Rosario is an "old guy". (Yes, there have been additions made to the roster externally, I get that). The best talent, and greatest depth in the system was in the lower levels as recent as last season. That talent is now at AA and A+. Injuries, which always happen, unfortunately, have curtailed a few guys. Even in SSS we have received contributions from Poppen, Arreaz, Smeltzer and even Stewart thus far. Raley may have been up before his injury. But even with Rooker doing what he does...adjust and then mash...its not hard to see that Pensacola on down is where the talent lies. I would not be a bit surprised to see Thorpe contribute in the second half. I bet we see Smeltzer and Poppen yet again. Gordon may even do something the second half. My biggest disappointments thus far has been the injury to waste half a season for Gonsalves, and Romero suddenly having no trust/control of his ability. But just because a number of our TOP prospects havent jumped up to do anything so far at the ML level in 2019 is a bit short sighted, IMO.

Still hoping for Wade. And I think he will still get a shot. But for those who blast Cave vs Wade, I get it. But let's not forget what Cave did last year, or that he was taking when promoted. His performance has been just awful until today. Pressing? But let's not pretend he is some bad ballplayer.

Agreed he should be a top target. I also like his experience in the AL. Also very much in if his trade package is approximately the value given for Pressly. Watson was also mentioned and I like that idea a lot Can someone refresh my memory on Giles and his attitude or incident? I've heard it referenced but cant recall.

Ignoring analytics and stating simple truth, I dont believe he is the guy we saw in April and May. But I think he may be better than the guy we've seen so far in June. I'd be OK with that and I think we all should be. I havent watched many of his recent outings, but what I have seen and read, it appears he's had a couple bad plays behind him and the proverbial one bad inning. In other words, grooving a pitch for a 3 run shot, but pitch solid the other 4-5 innings he's out there. Is that just who he really is? Or can a few corrections snap him out of this recent slump and help him find just a little more consistency? To me, that is the question. I don't expect a top of the rotation performance.

Only got to see a little of the game, but very surprised, pleasantly so, by Stewart out of the pen. I am NOT bashing this team in the midst of a tremendous season. But I feel they be a bit overconfident lately. Errors will be made. Hitters and pitchers will all have some rough patches here and there. It's baseball. Unfortunately, there has been a bit of a slump the last week, overall. Nothing to be concerned about. And I love the confidence of this club. But I would like to see them, collectively, take a look in the mirror and get a little angry at some blown opportunities and take it out on the Royals the next few games. BTW, if you haven't checked it out yet, there is a really nice article in the Blogosphere by Adam Kruger entitled THE NECESSARY STRUGGLE that is a very good read. Go Twins!

Perhaps I'm short sighted, optimistic, or crazy, but when I look at the rotation I see a top 3 that is probably as good as anyone's, unless what we are seeing from Odorizzi is NOT maturation and the Johnson touch but rather, some short term deal with the devil. Can't believe I'm actually saying this, but I think Perez is just going through a rough patch. The velocity and SO are still there. He seems to be a victim lately of a poor play or one bad pitch. I'm OK with Pineda and feel he's getting better and stronger. Don't get me wrong, a major rotation piece would be great! But unless it is MAJOR acquisition, I'm just all in on a couple of RP. To that end, I'd make a list of untouchables that would include Kiriloff, Lewis, Graterol and Balazovic. I'd like to include Thorpe there, but won't get greasy. I'd make everyone else available. I really think the depth of talent is there throughout the system for a pair of quality arms to be obtained. Again, you present me with a real, true top of the rotation piece we have a different conversation taking place.

So which side of the bed do you normally climb out of Ash?

Great post! Unless we are talking about an honest to goodness top of the rotation #1SP, I believe there is a list of about 5-6 names you put on an untouchable list. After that, you still have a good 20+ names that are viable, quality prospects most any team would love to have. Plenty of opportunity to deepen and improve the bullpen.

Exactly! Were there a top of the line, #1 SP available you ALWAYS have to listen. You always want to put the best, most complete team together that you can. But when looking at improvements, it's a question of where and how much. If we step out of Twins fan cleats for a second and step back, we would see we have one of the best rotations in MLB and a very good top 3. How much does another SP really augment what we already have? Example: If we could have Goldschmidt tomorrow instead of Cron, how much does that truly move the needle for our chances to win? It would be a very small improvement at best. However, give this team, as is, a couple of the bullpen arms that are being openly discussed here on TD, and the needle moves, the team improves, and so do their chances. To be clear, strengthening a strength is not a bad thing. But strengthening a weakness is a whole lot better way to improve.

To have Cave, Austudillo and Arraez just sitting there at Rochester providing depth is crazy!

Early in the season Gibson struggled some, understandably as he was re-gainng strength and getting his arm in full shape, and only lasting 4-5 IP. But in those starts, you could STILL see the Gibson we expected. I don't have numbers in front of me, but the last month or so he has looked and performed as expected. (Yes, a clunker or 2, but everyone has those including Berrios). This is the 2nd or 3rd time we've seen Gibby just be dominant for a game. Even when he was "struggling" I mentioned on more than one occasion he would be fine and he and Berrios were still our top two rotation arms. (Which is also why I've argued repeatedly for an extension as well). Now, I never suspected Odorizzi would morph/develop in to an ACE. And make no mistake, at this moment in time, Odorizzi IS an ACE even if he isn't a consistent 7IP starter. I have understood calls to acquire another SP "better than" Berrios or Gibson. To be fair, it's not as if there is a market place somewhere stocked with such an item. Those two guys are pretty darn good! And with Odorizzi throwing the way he is, I'd say our front 3 stack up with just about anyone in baseball.

The depth of talent in the system and potential 40 man roster crunch allows the Twins to make a couple smart additions and do nothing to "damage" the milb system or it's overall depth. And as Tom states, moving a few guys actually brings value back and allows a few guys to be protected that might have to be left vulnerable otherwise. The timing and reasons for trades and signings have been for different reasons, but have been aggressive. Much more aggressive than we have seen in a long time. As Thrylos states, and I believe accurately, the most aggressive since the McPhail tenure. In fact, even milb promotions have been much more aggressive than previously. I think that is an arguement that can be put to bed.