DocBauer

I think a lot of comments are selling Lewis short, no pun intended. I don't see where Steve, or anyone really, is saying he can't play SS. Only 19yo and played in AA ball and didn't embarrass himself. Nobody is saying he can't or won't potentially displace Polanco. But Polanco is also young and continues to improve, and should continue to improve. There is room for both of them. The point Brian was making was an excellent one. If you have Polanco, Arraez and Sano as quality fixtures, and have more than a couple 1B options getting really close, (plus a potential move of Sano to 1B), and have a dynamic OF, when together, and a couple other really nice kids on the way up, what on earth is so wrong with Lewis playing other positions in his ML promotion? That's like saying Marwin's value is limited because he doesn't play a single position. Maybe more to the point, examine Arraez. While a natural 2B, and possibly a fixture there for some time, he contributed at 2B/SS/3B/LF. Was that a mistake in his usage? I would say a resounding NO. And Lewis is a far greater athlete with greater potential. Where he ultimately fits on a daily basis is yet to be determined. But when he is ready to come up, why not use him in similar fashion? And I find debates about his offense humorous. A year ago he looked so good some thought/hoped he'd be ready early 2020. Now, he struggled a bit as a 19yo in his second full season. But he's flashing in the AFL.

Possibly. And I'm willing to go higher. But am considering injury history and the suspension. And the first year was $2M just to rehab.

Echoing a few other thoughts. 1] Error numbers for a 19yo milb SS are pretty meaningless. It's still about potential at this point, and further development of that potential. 2] Totally agree he should keep playing all over, including some time at 2B, to increase his versatility not only for a future home at some point, but to increase his initial call up value. And maybe he ends up being a daily player at a couple spots. Who knows? 3] Having a problem of how to fit all of your talent on the field at once is a nice problem to have. At this point, where Lewis ultimately ends up really shouldn't matter.

I am NOT saying no to Syndergard at all. And any deal for him could hurt. But in the best deals, there is hurt and everyone wins. You don't get something for nothing. I don't hate the idea of trading for Syndergard. But I think a lot of people are obsessed with "stuff" vs production. Despite his highest IP TOTAL in his career...only topping 180IP for the 2nd time...he is coming off the worst season of his career. The potential is there, to be sure. But any trade for him is still banking on potential and not some "sure" bet.

From what I have read, thus far, he can participate in ST. I've also beard he has a 15 day window for milb work before he would have to be activated, allowing for ramp up time. That should make him available 2nd or 3rd week of May, roughly. He has commented he would be interested in a return...as has Odorizzi for that matter...and several teammates texted and factimed him after the Twins clinched. Not sure about the FO, but Rocco or someone commented about liking him and being receptive to him coming back. Salary? TBD. He has had a decent, solid career, complete with an All Star appearance. But injuries have absolutely held him back. Despite a somewhat slow but decent start to 2019, and a disappointing end, he was damn good for most of it. You could easily argue 2019 was one of his best years. But regardless of that, and arm talent, and potential for 2020, IMO, he will not command a big contract. He earned $8M last season. I maintain a 1 or 1+1 or 2yr deal at $12M is fair and makes sense for both sides.

I don't feel anyone is saying don't spend and don't trade. I think the basic arguement is build a quality rotation however you can. Be creative and look at all avenues. While not a stud, Odorizzi is a very nice starter and was acquired for a flier prospect. 2 years later he's still good, better even, coming off the best season of his career. Pineda was signed to an inventive deal and paid real dividends before his suspension. NOT going to bring up the same old Darvish arguements again, but the Twins made a legitimate effort and were in the mix. The FO has stated they are looking and will be aggressive. What does that mean? We just dont know yet. But nowhere have they said they wouldn't trade prospects or make a major FA signing. I do find it somewhat humorous to discuss Cole and Strasburg when we dont even know yet if Strasburg will be available. This really is all speculation at this point, and that's fine. The Royals made 2 world series appearances, and won 1, basing their team on solid starters, a top bullpen, speed and defense. The Twins have a MUCH more dangerous and lethal offense than the Royals. There is the makings of a really, really strong bullpen here, especially with another quality LH added. I would LOVE Cole or Strasburg to be wear a Twins uniform. But if they don't, do we just decide we can't win at that point and fold up tents? How about a next best case scenario addition...whoever it may be...with a young and still improving Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda and youngsters filling in the 5th spot with a deep and talented pen and prolific offense? There are a lot of ways to do this, build this. I don't think a pair of $30M SP necessarily has to be the answer.

Go ahead and disagree because I'm starting to disagree with myself, lol. I guess what I meant to say was we didnt give up any top prospects so I could see them moving on. Teng was the guy I hated to lose also.

This has to be considered! I have stated a couple times I'm still about 50/50 the Twins will sign a major FA. NOT because ownership is just cheap or any of the traditional rhetoric, but simply because this FO may have a guy or two that they and Johnson just really think is about ready to take the next step. Cole was considered a really decent pitcher, but not an ACE. Suddenly he is the #1 stud everyone wants. In all my years watching baseball, there are so few ACE caliber pitchers who were drafted at the top of the 1st round. Most were/are guys who learned and grew and transformed in to such. Is there someone out there the Twins are targeting who they really believe in? I don't know. Maybe they will sign Oddo, sign Pineda, sign Bumgarner or Wheeler and STILL make a trade that catches us off guard. It's going to be interesting to see what happens. Moves are going to be made. I just hope they make the right ones. They did well this past off season. Come to think of it, they were pretty smart with Odorizzi and Pineda the last couple years.

Curious, as the rotation is the obvious first need to address. When you mention someone like Watson, who I wanted at the deadline, but you mention adding a traditional closer like Giles or Diaz...forgetting total payroll for a moment, are you saying you like them better than Rogers? (I don't) Or are you saying you simply believe Rogers would be better used in a "fireman" role rather than as the traditional closer? Second question. Smith should come at a similar or cheaper price than Giles or Diaz. You don't think the Twins would be interested or that be wouldn't sign here?

I've been reflecting on this idea, but not quite as directly as you state here. But first a thought, and there may not necessarily be data to address this: It's very easy to address available data on zero days rest, 1 day rest, etc. What I don't think is accurate, or can be properly measured is appearances as such can be defined with 100% accuracy. For simplicity sake, let's just use Rogers as an example. Duct tape, wire and smart usage allowed the Twins to cobble a relatively effective bullpen for most of the first half of 2019. Rogers however, was often asked to pitch more than a single inning on many occasions. In the second half, with a much more effective, and deeper, bullpen, he was not asked to do so as often. At times, we have all seen closets, for example, achieve a "cheap save" by coming for only 1 or 2 outs to complete the game. I am not necessarily using said "save" as a direct measurement of importance, only stating as out 8 pitch save simply has to weigh differently on a RP than a 4 or tp5 or even 6 out save situation and 20 or more pitches thrown. In other words, the entire ZERO DAY rest situation can be skewed either direction by number of batters faced and number of pitches thrown. All that being said, it still comes down to bullpen depth, doesn't it? Along with a manager who doesn't abuse his pen by warming them up too early or too often before making an appearance. I am NOT using this OP to discuss the 2020 rotation, except to say this: some combination of Cole/Strasburg/Bumgarner/Wheeler/quality trade addition to team with Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda would tell you that MOST days, you can count on 5-6 IP from your primary 4 SP, with the 5th spot open to conjecture. Thjs assumption IMO, is pretty easy to make as we are talking about quality effective ML starters vs a low end, cobbled rotation. Let us assume our intelligent forward thinking, and at least somewhat aggressive FO realizes they need a 2nd LHRP option via FA or trade. Let's us use Miller as the choice here since he fits the bill and we have been tied to him previously. 2020 bullpen: Rogers Duffey May Miller Romo Littell Stashak 8th man debatable in regard to choice, Rochester shuttle, and the possibility of keeping an extra position player instead. In this scenario, Rogers is the primary closer, though the "fireman" idea remains. The quartet of Duffey, May, Romo and Miller "own" the 7th and 8th innings, with the possibility of pitching the 9th on occasion. This leaves Littell and Stashak, and possibly an 8th arm, for the 6th inning, and earlier on bad days from a starter. Other than general roles of normal usage, I don't knkw that a true rotation is necessarily in order. I think it's simply a depth issue and normal usage roles that make your pen effective.

Tend to agree on Dyson. And we didn't give much to get him really. Just a thought since they embrace out of box thinking. Agree there are further options on hand to call up. Wonder about Romero staying in the pen. Also wonder about Poppen. I see him in the Rochester rotation for possible depth and to keep him stretched out.

1] IMO, Romo is back, and there is no reason for him not to be. 2] Unless they want to convert Thorpe to the bullpen this early...SO potential and goodmoversll stuff...which I don't think they will, badly need to add another quality LHRP via trade or FA. I'm fine with the pen otherwise. 3] Not saying Dyson will be back but say again don't be surprised on a split deal where he recovers in 2020...with a possible late season appearance...but with an eye toward a healthy 2021. 4] Back to Duffey here, I could be mistaken, but I don't believe he ever had a slider until this season. He threw 2 different FB and threw his curve at different speeds presumably/possibly, with different grips. And then he attempted a change he could never master. Pretty sure the slider...maybe it was a new, harder, different version of his curve...was developed this season. If memory serves.

But Lewis at 3B and keep Polanco at SS, IMO. I think he has the stronger arm.

I appreciate good defense. I think it's important. I don't dismiss it. And I appreciate the OP and the intentions behind it. But I am going to disagree with the premise as presented. And not just due to salary implications for a team that needs to address the rotation first and foremost, plus adding an addition LHRP option to make a potentially great BP. For reflection sake, said this before, many times, give Sano some time. I've seen so many sluggers Twins and otherwise, who were too big, too stiff, who had stone hands, but given time turned out to be solid, if not excellent, 3B. Doesn't happen for everyone. Sano's cannon is special. He charges grounders well. Pop ups are now outs, not an adventure. While his range will always be somewhat limited, his hands are pretty soft. IMO, there is no way I'd move him at this point, especially considering all the mitigating factors. Eventually, yes, I can see him at 1B, or even, hopefully, embracing a DH role as he approaches 30. Kids like Lewis, Kirilloff and Larnach and Rooker, not traded, will have some say in roster construction moving forward. But I absolutely stick with him at 3B for now. BUT, for giggles, keeping in mind the original OP, Moose would be the guy I would target in this scenario.

The fact that there really is no true consensus is fine with me. Kepler deserves it as much as anyone. I've been a supporter and believer in Max for some time and have been just waiting for him to break through. I still think I'd vote Cruz #1 not only for production, but for leadership and example. Not so sure influence went beyond production. I hate to "rob" Kepler of AB's next season, but I'm thinking Arraez at #1, with Max hitting #4 And letting Rosario hit 6th behind Sano.

I honestly believe the Twins will look at both Cole and Strasburg. How could they not considering payroll and opportunity? Now, even 5-6yrs at $30M do they love Target Field, the young lineup, Rocco, Johnson, the FO, etc.? Or are either drawn to lower tax rates, a place they call home, etc? The Twins then have to look at the 2nd level options. Not bad, just the next tier, to go a long with other moves. Is Wheeler that guy? I'm torn between him and Bumgarner. Bumgarner has a ton of IP, and is a couple years older. But he has experience, and STILL has good velocity. Could Johnson work a few bits of magic and tweaking and have him at least close to what he was previously? Somewhat similar to Verlander finding new life in Houston? Wheeler hasn't had near the career that Bumgarner has had. But he's also about 4yrs younger. It could be easily argued that Odorizzi, acquired for next to nothing at a similar age and point in his career, would be a similar comparison. And Oddo, a hopeful, and expected re-sign, in whatever capacity, probably has less pure "stuff" than Wheeler. Playing devil's advocate, and just assuming we lose out on Cole and Strasburg, even with similar offers, is Bumgarner or Wheeler the next best choice?

Poignant, intelligent, and funny! Love it. But the reality is, Stashak was part of an unexpected movement that none of us saw coming. Did the GO? We can all extrapolate the failures of the entire team in the final series adnaseum if we want to: injury, rust, suspension, experience, etc. I don't want to dwell on that because that's not the point here. Stashak is the point. Stashak showed, in limited experience, what he is capable of. In truth, Littell could have been included in this same article. Littell came up earlier but both situations are similar. You simply can't honestly take the body of work either showed during the regular season and just dismiss potential based on what happened in a single series. Stashak, being young, and I'm including Littell, still have to earn their way. But in no way should we dismiss what we saw of them building the pen for 2020.

BIG chuckle at the proposed agent conversation! Really like to believe conversations like that won't be happening when players look at the 2019 season, the talent on hand, Target Field, Rocco and Johnson and this FO going forward.

Quoting this post rather than the last as it's shorter, lol, and still on topic. Absolutely agree the Twins system has the depth to make moves, similar to Houston. Also agree Houston has been very smart in their trades, not overpaying, even though they moved some quality ballplayers. Again, I think the Twins can and will do the same. The one caveat I would make for any team, including our beloved Twins, is the factor of luck/opportunity. Let me be more clear: when the Astros traded for Verlander, he was available. The Tigers were going nowhere. This past season there were cries for the Twins to get "their" Verlander. But really, Greinke was the only similar player available, and he had us on a no trade. Believed or not, there were reports the Twins at least called, but the conversation went nowhere. Full credit to Houston for striking when opportunity is there. Is there that kind of arm available now via trade? Who do the Twins identify as that game changer? If there is one, then I sure hope they are just as quick to strike as Houston has been on the past.

I guess I'd be wondering if any of these really were upgrades. And I'm not taking a shot at them or dismissing their worth. But were the Twins to bring back Odorizzi and Pineda...as has been often speculated/proposed by many of us...I don't know that any of these options are equal to or better than Berrios. Boyd might be if you got a full season out of him like his first half. Detroit needs young talent! The Twins have to spare. Johnson might do wonders for him. Would either team be interested in trading within the division? Gray and Musgrove offer intrigue, though I confess to knowing little about Musgrove. Both fit age wise. What kind of upside might either have? Or rather, what kind of upside do the Twins see?

I agree with almost everything you propose and your general numbers. A $1M or two one way or another doesn't really change the over all numbers, or your plan. I also agree on Oddo, but I think be is a bit cheaper than the $17M as I see an extension instead. But again a $1M or two doesn't really change things. I'm just not convinced Cron bumps from $4.8M to the proposed $7.7M. That seems a bit steep to me, but again, won't quibble over a couple $M. I do however, disagree on Harper. I think that spot is Smeltzer's to lose, though he will face competition from others on board and a flier. Not positive Harper gets protected. I love the Smith signing and believe he will be contacted. I think your numbers could be a bit high, but acceptable. But I could see a trade, perhaps, instead for a slightly cheaper option with control. The MLB mean for 2020 should be somewhere in the $150+M range, and your proposal keeps the Twins a little under that, which is very fair, and doesn't allow for a lot of long term contracts to anyone other than Miller, or said SP. The elephant in the room, as we all know, is Cole or Strasburg actually signing, even at $30M per. Despite a beautiful ballpark, a contending team and similar offer that might be expected elsewhere, are they drawn to a different city for whatever reason. Well done!

Want to like your post and agree with it...but just can't quite go there. Generally agree with your OF comment, especially RF, but I think Kepler is better than mediocre at CF. JMO, but despite solid contributions and massive improvement with the bat in 2019, I feel Adrianza is best as a versatile player who plays regularly but not daily. I am just not ready to give up on Sano at 3B, his cannon arm is valuable. Be charges the baĺl well. Pop ups are no longer an adventure. I have seen too many powerful 3B develop in to quality 3B defensively that I would take his OK defense for another year, at least, and see how he does. The biggest upgrade will hopefully be, could be, should be, continued work, coaching, experience from all involved.

This one was easy. I have always cringed about Gwynn comparisons and hyperbole,but I get it. Gwynne had more speed, and developed a little more power over time. Like a similar player of his generation, Boggs, he displayed more power when asked to, at expense of his BA. There is no question Arraez can and probably will develop more pop, if not real power. And he needs to in order to keep pitchers and defenses honest. But unless he just explodes, he should just keep doing what he has always done, and not be asked to do more. He is a hit and OB machine. He is nothing special defensively. But only 22, it's not hard to expect defensive improvement is it? Kid has instincts! He played a little SS and 3B and found himself tossed out to OF and actually played it OK. Nick your 3B idea bears discussion, and he did OK, but can his arm handle it? Unless talent of the roster...Lewis...makes him the next Marwin, I see him as the full time 2B for several years. And there is nothing wrong with that. Glad the Twins did what many of us screamed about last off season, "protect this kid!"

Nice post and we are thinking along the same lines. Thought I'd comment in bullet points. 1] I think Castro may be back on a reduced deal for a year plus. And to me it makes tons of sense for both sides. I just don't see a big offer for Castro, had bet well paid at $4-5M as a veteran playing 30-40% of the time. 2] Cron, or similar, still fits in for about $5M. When I do MY math, even with Romo re-signed, I still see approximately $60M for Oddo, Pineda and about $30M left over. 3] Even if Cole or Strasburg would say yes to $30M, we would still be awfully close to the 2019 payroll. That is before a hike in arbitration or re-sign contracts. And yet, the mythical/proposed $60M number includes some reasonable arbitration numbers. So, again, we are playing with 2019 payroll numbers, give or take a little. Now, we make a trade instead, or slide to a Wheeler or Bumgarner 2nd tier FA, there is more money on the table for flexibility in regard to extensions and such. Considering the ML mean in 2020 will again be about $150M, a number the Twins should easily be able to cover, there remains tons of flexibility. 4] I don't see Rosario being traded. At least not at this point. By himself, he doesn't bring back the SP you want/need. So why not a prospect laden trade for what you need, which is what a re-building team would be looking for. Unless you have a sort of reverse Indians/Reds deal at hand in regard to the Bauer move. Plus, with questions about Buxton remaining, and Kepler and Larnach not yet ready, there is too much of a gamble there, IMO. *Side note: despite some streaks and fighting a bum ankle late in the season, I find it humorous how easily some dismiss Rosario despite having the most productive season of his career. No matter what I'm still about 50/50 the Twins sign a major FA outside the organization vs making a 3-5 prospect deal for a SP they really like and believe in.

Just using the $60M idea, and how I've used it when building a model, plenty of room to re-sign both Oddo and Pineda. Even some money left over if we go the trade or FA route for anyone not named Stasburg or Cole. They put us about even in the event of such a signing. NOT saying that will be the payroll, just playing with that number as a cautionary budget. I don't feel bad at all with Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe and Graterol fighting for the 5th spot. (Could even see a chap flier brought on board). I just don't see Perez brought back on full option contract. But like you stated, I could see something smaller. Maybe another year with Johnson and his new cutter could make a difference.