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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Like the way you are thinking here! Agreed on checking out various LHRP options. My dream was Pomeranz on a 2yr $4-5M deal but that got completely blown up. Now, it's about who is the best candidate Johnson and the FO like. I kind of hate to say it, but I'm starting to wonder about Perez. I think his days as a SP option are gone, unless someone decides they can still "fix" him the way it looked like the Twins did the first couple of months last year. If he would accept a bullpen move, I find him interesting. With all due respect to Cave, who I like despite some rough edges and a play in the field here and there that left me scratching my head, I'd be very interested in a lower cost 4th OF who can play a legitimate CF. I don't care if he bats LF/RF necessarily, just a guy who can play good defense and be solid offensively. I just don't know who to target at this point. Catcher is weird and interesting. There are a couple guys I like...really liked Vogt...but still prefer to go status quo with Castro. Interesting I haven't heard a single rumor about him. Leads me to believe a re-sign is a strong possibility.
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Front Page: Ft. Myers Miracle Become Mighty Mussels
DocBauer replied to Steven Buhr's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
***simply shakes head*** -
But the Twins offered Darvish over $100M and if I recall correctly, the same annual $. It was the 6th year Chicago tacked on that got the deal done. I see no reason why the Twins wouldn't go to the $100M for Wheeler. Now, if the numbers go to $25M per yr or 6yrs, I can see them walking away and looking at the next couple of guys. (Which reports say they are). I think comparing Darvish and Wheeler might be a little unfair, which is why I didn't initially. But a couple years apart, they are at least comparable as one of the top FA SP available.
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Front Page: Minnesota’s Internal First Base Options
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Really liking the idea of Shaw on a rebound 1yr deal. While nothing outstanding, his precious 3yrs average out nicely. And there is. the versatility factor. I could be sold. But we are talking INTERNAL options. IMO, that still includes Cron despite the latest roster move. Offense and defense, I still think he might just be the best 1yr option available. But my crystal ball is still in the shop and I just know how his hand is going to be come time for ST. If not selected in rule V, Wiel and Raley would be the best 2 options to battle it out initially. I see Rooker needing a little more time for polish and to get in a groove and similar for Kirilloff, who I agree could be up quickly. Sticking strictly internal, and Cron not ready/available, I'd bet on Raley as the guy to start the season. -
Front Page: Twins Non-Tender Cron and Hildenberger
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm afraid this is going to turn in to yet ANOTHER Sano to 1B debate and that really shouldn't be the case. Not directly. What should be discussed is simply what makes the 2020 Twins best overall. Of course you don't make a commitment to Cron right now. I have little doubt he'll be sitting there come mid to late January simply because of his surgery and recovery. IMO, a healthy Cron at 1B and Sano at 3B is the most productive combo we could have. Without Cron, who else do you get? Kendrick? Moreland? Thames? So Sano maybe moves to 1B and you sign Moose, not because Sano can't play 3B, but simply because that combo may simply be the better and more dangerous option available to you. That will cost you another $5-6M than keeping Cron, but that cost is not prohibitive in the grand scheme. I still like Cron, but the more I think about his injury and recovery, and I read comments about his injury being "significant", you have to pick a direction and move with it. You can't just sit and wait on this one. -
Not comparing the two guys directly, but coming off the WC season a couple years ago the Twins offered Darvish over $100M. Now, coming off a 101 win season and plenty of financial room, there is no reason not to expect a major signing. Now exactly who is hard to predict. There are other teams offering and the pitcher has to decide he wants to play for our Twins and can see success coming here. Not sure how anyone couldn't see impending success at this point.
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I think all 3 "what ifs" are valid points. (I still don't understand the Jays not playing the Mets against the Twins and looking for a counter. Ridiculous!) When a team has such a good season and wins 101 games and sets records, it's a little hard to play the "what if" game over the context of a full season. It does, however, hold a little more weight when narrowed down to the post season. I'm a little tired of hearing how the Yankees had it so bad but overcame odds to have a good season. Good for them. But the Twins run of injuries happened the second half of the season, along with the Pineda suspension. And some of the guys who played in that series were hurting or at least rusty. An excuse? No. Just a fact. To me, both teams, healthy were a very even matchup. The Yankees had more post season experience and were healthier at the time. They won. Now to tweak a very good team and get 2020 going and get back to the post season again!
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Front Page: Every Team Wants Zack Wheeler
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agree with your thoughts. But will disagree with you from a perspective analysis. The Twins may simply get lucky by signing Wheeler at this time due to experience and stuff coming to fruition as he gets ready to turn 30. Major injury now 2yrs behind him, there is a very good chance his best 3yr+ window is going to open. Additionally, sometimes a change in scenery, that different coach and analytics dept will see just a small tweak or 2 that leads to greater success along with what I mentioned above. You know, 2" over on the rubber, little more this pitch, little less this one, etc. Optimistic on my part? Perhaps. But I think optimism is warranted all things considered. At worst, still a really solid arm. -
After Grandal, there were a couple quick and even surprising moves made. So far, I haven't even heard a rumor regarding Castro. To me, that says nobody is breaking down doors to offer him multiple years, $8+ and a starting job. So until something breaks, I'm still saying $5-6M per for 2yrs. It's a perfect fit and win/win for both sides and eases "pressure" to rush Jeffers or Rortverdt.
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I am all about re-signing Pineda. When you look at stuff, age, what he did last year, where do you find a better value or fit? His suspension only carries about 30 more days. As I understand it, he can fully participate in ST and gets a couple weeks to ramp up in the minors before he is activated. Not sure if he can remain at the Ft Myers complex during the suspension or is forced to work out on his own. I don't like to have to cover that first 30+ days, but over the course of the entire season, again, he's a perfect fit.
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1] A solid argument could be made for Ryu and Bumgarner being equal to or better as a signing than Wheeler. But what you banking/projecting on Wheeler is 30yo come May with legit mods 90's velocity combined with normal experience and 2 yrs removed from surgery. A change of scenery with a new staff and you could easily be looking at the best 3yrs or so of his career. Yes $20-22M ish is too much. But that's probably what it is going to take. As of now, not only can you afford it without compromising the roster, but he would be the only large and long term deal on the books. 2] As to Castro, his coming back makes too much sense for both parties. You can say the Twins may not be overly anxious to bring him back, and that's fair. But he hasn't signed anywhere else yet, and we've seen a couple surprising signings at the catcher position so far. To this point, I don't think I've ever heard rumors of anyone else interested. 3] Not sure about Sano to 1B yet. But the FO would be foolish not to consider all avenues to improve the team. I don't feel they are pushing that move yet. But if you aren't sold on Cron being 100% at this time, you obviously look at all contingencies at your disposal. 4] Bullpen wise, they really need a LH without moving Smeltzer or Thorpe. They need to stay starting for now. But if you look at what's available, sure seems like low 1yr deal options and fliers. But then again, that has proven to work many times, while tossing money at FA RP in recent years hasn't usually worked very well. That being said, I think Romo comes back on a 1yr $3M deal.
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Agreed. I'd still like to keep Jax if possible. Getting long in the tooth, but that's a result of circumstances and not on him. I really dont know how much upside he has left, and he could easily be passed by this year. But I just have a feeling there is more to come with him. I'd like to fund out.
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To me, Pineda is about as close as you can get to a no-brainer. Obviously we need a big addition such as the oft-mentioned and speculated Wheeler. While not impossible, it would be very difficult to target and sign 2 of the top FA targets. Not that they are unaffordable, but because other teams are competing for signatures as well. I'd really like Pineda on a 2yr deal, but agreed he may only want 1. Regardless, if you have doubts about him as a 4th SP...not a 5th...look at his numbers last year and especially from June on as listed. Guy was getting better and better the farther away from his surgery. Not uncommon. He would be as good nor better than about anyone else you could bring in barring a large trade situation. And those are not always easy to make. This move costs $ only. I wish he wouldn't be missing the first month of the season, but being focused on the season as a whole entity, I'd love to have him back.
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Javier makes so little sense on so many levels. Are you really going to stash him for an entire season just so you can send him back down to A ball in 2021 to continue much needed development for a guy suddenly down 1 option? Jax makes sense for someone to take. He's probably kept as well as I could see him easily stashed as a long/middle man if he shows you anything at all. Clay and Reed are in similar boats. There is enough velocity and SO numbers for a non contender to take a flier. Whether either shows enough to stick is a different story. I would think Wiel is a strong candidate to be picked. His career has not been stellar, but it's been solid and he's probably comjng off his very best year. I understand the argument about 1B/OF/DH types being a dime a dozen. And they probably are. But ones who can actually perform are not. Wiel is relatively young and controllable with power. I would think someone will like that combination. They won't all's be selected. Anywhere from 0-2 probably. But there are valued arguments for a few tombs targeted.
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In addition to the comments I made about Sano above, why can't Polanco continue to develop and grow defensively? Like Sano, I believe he will only be 26yo next season and now has a relatively consistent 2 1/2 seasons in as a full time ML SS. He is a fine athlete with a new throwing motion. I believe he graded out about average defensively last season. There is still room to grow for both of them.
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I hate to beat a dead horse, but everyone who is so worried about Sano's defense needs to take a step backk for a moment. He has a rocket. His hands are at least decent. He charges the ball well. He is solid on pop ups and foul balls. The only thing he really isn't is "range-y" laterally. Depending on which article you read and which defensive metric, he was average or slightly below average last season. Despite it seeming as though he has been around forever, he will only be 26yo in 2020. He had a nightmare of a 2018 and a very good 2019, overall, after a rough start. Hopefully, no more setbacks for this slimmer, better conditioned and harder working Sano. For those old enough to remember, Gaetti came up with hands of stone. A few years later he won a Gold Glove. When Koskie came up, he was too tall and stiff to play 3B. A couple years later he was one of the better defensive 3B around. Why, oh why can't Sano continue to improve, at least a little? Shouldn't we at least give him 2020 to see?
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So we should bring an average defensive 3B to move to Sano to 1B and replace Cron's offense with an aging and less powerful/productive veteran or a couple of guys with zero power and production who are best used as utility players? Holt...maybe...as a replacement for Marwin on the utility level so he can start full time at 3B. I just don't get this at all.
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He was one of my top choices to replace Castro if he's not back.
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I've always felt beyond your prospects at AAA, you should spend a little more to bring in a handful of AAAA guys that might be a cut above for insurance. You just never know what can happen. From what I have watched, I have no problem with Astudillo behind the plate. And I absolutely agree with previous post that if he can just lay off the crazy outside stuff, he has the ability to be a solid and productive hitter in a fill-in role. But I like him best as my 3rd guy with someone a little more experienced to play with Garver. Again, I'm hoping for Castro. But there are other guys of interest, though losing Vogt as an option is disappointing. But your AAA pitchers need and deserve someone quality to work with and provide the parent club with an extra, viable option.
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Watching him his entire career, Vizquel is 2nd only to The Wizard when it comes to SS and SHOULD BE a lock for the HOF. He didn't have Ozzie's flair, but was just as dependable and maybe had the better arm. Like Smith, he was a defense first and foremost player who developed in to a very nice offensive player who did a bit of everything. I can be a typical Yankee hater, but I have never disliked Jeter or disparaged him in any way. I will say, however, that part of his reverence, IMO, comes from being a Yankee and his post season success. That success is important, relevant and can not be denied. But if I were building a dream team tomorrow and had my choice of a SS in his prime, Ozzie would be my #1 choice. I'm not so sure I wouldn't pick Vizquel over Jeter. I want to agree that Bonds and Clemens deserve it regardless due to their greatness before all the PED conversations and taints. I watched their entire careers. The problem is, NOBODY, except the players themselves and those closest to them, know exactly when the PED usage took place. Was it from day one? When they hit 30? 31? 32? Whether you agree or not, there is a stigma there. They will be included at some point. It may be further down the road, and with an asteric by their name, but they will be there one day. But it won't be now.
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Considering all factors, to me the decision is easy. Moose. With all due respect to Donaldson, every projection has him at twice the $ as Moustakas. Living in Royals country here in Omaha, I'm pretty familiar with him and his career. While not elite defensively, he's turned himself in to a decent/quality 3B with a consistent stick. I have been honestly and shockingly surprised how he has bounced around considering how solid a player he is and his consistent production. IF the Twins were serious about making a change at this point, I would jump at a 2yr $12M per vs what Donaldson would seem to command. He's been healthier and is 2yrs younger as well. His cost would be about $5-6M more than keeping Cron. Again, much less than Donaldson, and that $ influences pitching moves/additions as well. If you really like Frazier's glove, and really believe he can at least duplicate his 2019 season, then be comes much cheaper on probably a 1yr deal. But unless you really feel good about those things, Sano/Cron sounds like a better alternative to me.

