DocBauer

I think is a really good post! The "modern" Twins organization, whatever dates you wish to use, consists of 2 different eras, the Metrodome era, and the Target Field era. Those 2 eras were run, including today, by 4 different FO, if you go back to MacPhail. There was a massive payroll explosion that began about 30yrs ago, along with a revenue explosion, to be fair. Remember when Pucket was the highest paid player in baseball for about 3 days at $2+M before Ricky Henderson signed his deal days later. Despite Target Field, the Twins remain a mid market team due to many factors. In 2010, if memory serves, the FO and ownership believed in the team's contention status and raised payroll to an all time level. If memory serves, I believe they were around 10th or so that season. In 2018, coming off a late surge that lead to a WC spot in 2017, this new FO took a shot on various moves that took the payroll up to right about middle of the pack of MLB. Unless you have a team going all in, that's about where you would expect amid market team to be most years. Huge dollars and payroll are nice. But it's also about spending money wisely. Some came unglued when the Twins cut payroll after last season. I get it. But looking back now at the season's mid point, can you really see any move made, or not made, that hasn't turned out to be smart as well as prudent? Financially, the team is in fine shape at this point for additional extensions, a couple re-signings, as well as bringing on additional payroll in the form of trade acquisitions. Can this even be disputed? Now, exactly who and what they add remains to be seen. Is there really a SP to add that makes SENSE and is AVAILABLE? Considering the way this FO, and an entirely new way of thinking and examining players has changed, do they target a big name RP or two? Or do they see another Nathan, another Pressly out there that makes more sense? I stated in another thread I believe the FO will bring in 1-3 new arms. Depends a lot on trade cost, availability, and who is on hand they believe in. I maintain we could be surprised by who they believe in and bring in, not necessarily a BIG NAME. But everything this organization is doing now is very, very different in how things were handled previously. The old mantra of ownership is cheap and doesn't care is not only tired and old, it also doesn't apply to everything we've seen thus far with the new regime. Until, or unless, this FO just does nothing, I think it's time to let old arguements go.

Polanco was signed as an athletic SS with a questionable bat. After his first couple of seasons the bat emerged to the point where he was a top of the order hitter who got slid down to being a #3 hitter for his team because the hit tool was just that good. Somebody, somewhere, decided he couldn't play at SS at the ML level, even though he was signed as an athletic SS. I have posted this over and over and over again. How many have looked at milb error numbers or early MLB error numbers for previous Gold Glove and All Star SS? With little exception, there was a learning curve involved. Despite some weird handling of his options...and I give credit to Molitor for seeing what this kid could become...he was the starting AL SS in the All Star game just after his 26th birthday. He continues to get better and better defensively and offensively. But some would quibble he's not an "elite" SS? Or not yet defensively elite? I get it. But what else could you want at thjs point?

Which is why I still vote Polanco #1. Despite a couple bad games recently, I think it's a disservice, and a little sad, All Star game be damned, that more people aren't looking at the amazing season Kepler is having. My goodness, 40 doubles. 40 HR 100+ RBI and R at the midpoint, projected? WOW!

The SB aspect of the game seems to be disappearing, much to my chagrin. All the more disappointment in this age of HR balls where you may truly surprise teams. Like you, I believe Buxton's power will increase. But I wonder if his lack of running is predicated on staying healthy vs the power of the current team and just being OB.

Great article indeed! But boy do I feel a need to comment! 1] Twins catcher leading the AL in OPS: NOT surprised. I often commented why everyone thought Castro was going to be the #1 guy over Garver. I've always thought Garver was for real. And despite some ups and downs offensively...let him just be healthy because you've seen what he can do...i felt Astudillo would help. If there is a surprise here, and I guess there is, is how well Castro has come back from his surgery. I think he has shown now what he is, a really good catcher who performs best when not asked to play daily. My problem here is, I'd love to bring Castro back on a 2yr or 1+1 deal. But no way back at his current salary. He's probably made twice as much $ on his current 3yr deal with the Twins...no, I'm not checking just speculating...but would someone be enticed to offer him a fairly decent contract for a few years? Or would they be scared by age and what is s til so-so overall career numbers? Would a 2yr $2.5-3M due it for an over 30yo catcher? Or am I dreaming? 2] Odorizzi: He was a top prospect who pitched well but never great. The Twins got him cheap. Be had a good but not great 2018, despite a pretty strong finish. However, his final ranking numbers surprised me. A year older, approaching the age where a lot of pitchers really "get it" based on experience, with a new manager and PC, we are seeing real growth. I believe we are seeing the start to a 3-4yr stretch where he will be at his best. I'd really like to keep him. But I'd say Perez is the bigger surprise. Also a former top prospect, what he has done is crazy! And I'm record, several times, for not liking this signing at all. Started off great, floundered while showing flashes, then finished the second half looking really good again. 3] Harper: I'm right there with you! Some point to inherited runners scored. And I get that! It's an important stat! But not everyone is a FIREMAN who blows people away. And usage is also important. Inherited runs WILL score. It's inevitable. Context of situations a pitcher is thrown in to has to be considered. Regardless, his numbers state he has been quality overall. Surprisingly so. 4] Arreaz: There were quite a few who balked at him being added to the 40 man as unnecessary. I was not one of them. Different talent, but I always compared him to Polanco. When you produce at every level, you have a tangible ability. And when you miss almost a full season and then come back to be the same player you were before, PLAYER! (Part of the reason I believe so much in Kirilloff and Thorpe). I am not yet ready to anoint him as the starting 2B for 2020 just yet. I need to see more. I need to see his 22yo build gain a little more muscle to be more than a patient and slap hitter. But I sure like what I see and wouldn't bet against him. 5] Buxton: I have NEVER bet against this kid! No matter how undisciplined as a hitter he looked at times, you could always see what he was capable of. A truly great athlete, in any sport, always has 2 choices. One is to just wing it and trust in his talent. The second choice is to take that talent and do the WORK and make yourself better. Look at his age and injury and milb track record. Injuries held him back true. But be was also rushed. His career path, eerily, matches Hunter. Same could be said for Sano. 6] I'm adding Cron: 1B/DH types are a dime a dozen right? Cron has been OUTSTANDING day after day defensively at 1B. His bat has been solid. He's been producing at a high level. Even higher than his career season last year. How in hell did TB let him go and not play him daily at 1B? 7] Honorable Mention, Adrianza: This is a glove first guy who hit in the minors but couldn't seem to establish himself with the Giants. The Twins picked him up on a flier and for the previous two seasons did what a utility infielder was supposed to do: play good defense and hit a little. Except, he hit better than just a little. Come ST 2019 we suddenly hit a ton, and then started the season downright awefull! Most everyone was ready to ditch him. And while he may still be the 25th man overall, all he has done is hit, make contributions, and prove himself as a viable roster player you'd hate to let go.

Adding to that: MIP, Most Influential Player. Nelson Cruz. He's been everything we hoped for when signed. It has been reported how he has worked with Buxton in regard to seemingly simple things like asking him, when he came back to the dugout, "Did you have a plan? Did you have fun?" I don't doubt he's had an influence on other players as well.

I also agree with every choice to this point. Also agree Buxton could be the guy if he hadn't missed a little time, I think the same could be said for Rosario as well. Just a couple quick comments: 1] What seals it for me, regarding Berrios, is a recent 3 game stretch where he pitched brilliant in 2 games, very good in a 3rd, (though he went a little longer than expected and kinda took one for the team with 6R, 4 earned to help save the pen) and received 2 no decisions and 1 loss, if I recall correctly. But despite W-L results, he really manned up for the team in that stretch. 2] Love Arraez and agree, despite a fairly SSS and a lot of season to go. Really like this kid! And yes, I am a fan and believer, but I wonder if a fully healthy Astudillo wouldn't have changed the votes? He looked good early, then went to the IL. He looked bad when be cam back, raked at Rochester, and seemed to look good again before his latest IL stint. Just speculating out loud.

Ted, I hadn't thought of Byron and his contributions in an MVP way until reading your opinion here. You have me re-thinking my original thought(s) that we actually discussed in another thread a few days ago. Had Rosario not been de-railed the past 10 days or so, I'm not so sure he isn't the choice. Kepler, for what he has done in his breakout season m and Cruz, for what he has done performance wise as well as leadership he seems to have brought to this mostly young team, deserve consideration at least. My choice is Polanco for his steady and sometimes excellent glove and performance with the bat. He solidifies the previous black hole at SS and has delivered time and again offensively. To me he's the spark plug of the offense. His entire season has been mostly consistent from game one. But I simply can't deny what a healthy and developing Buxton has meant to this team. I would argue with you a bit about his ceiling, which I think he is just scraping at this time with fingertips. I do believe he is a .270-ish AVG hitter, but I think his power is more than just "sneaky". The doubles and triples will be there with power and speed, but I really believe he has legitimate 20HR power on a consistent basis with a little more maturation. I think I'm sticking with Polanco as my choice for first half MVP, but you do have me second guessing myself for sure.

And isn't that the crux of the debate? It's rather easy to state: "All prospects should be included in a trade for a top of the line #1 SP with at least 1yr of control beyond 2019". There are 4-5 kids I really, really don't want to move. But I'm OK if a couple of them are if said veteran top of the rotation is available. But someone tell me that might realistically might be? Meanwhile, we have a pair of All Stars leading our rotation with the very good Gibson as our #3. Perez started hot, hit a funk, looked good last time out, and Pineda has largely been improving. The pen has simply not been the firestorm many want to state it as being, and is easily the best way to improve the STAFF as a whole.

Bumgarner's career and success are not to be debated. But the miles on his arm and recent seasons are to be. At 29yo, and with vast experience at his disposal, he is young enough to be a candidate to re-invent himself. On a much different level, he could be a Perez type who changes his mix, tweaks his delivery, and finds another 2-4yrs of quality success as a top of the rotation SP, even if not as dominant. The ultimate example, is Greg Maddux who graduated from power arm to tremendous pitcher. I am not saying Bumgarner can or can not do something similar. But I find it interesting, and a bit discouraging, frankly, that so many just EXPECT that would happen were the Twins to trade for him. Is the older Greinke an answer? Rumors have it Washington has no interest in trading Scherzer. (And his contract could make that a mess anyway). So where is the answer? And that's an honest question I'm asking. Currently, the Twins have a solid rotation, and the best one they have had in years. I dare say they have one of the better overall rotations in MLB. It seems to me a difference maker in the rotation would be much more difficult to define, recognize and add vs a couple quality bullpen pieces that could make a real difference.

Everything we have seen about him so far is not just power and power potential, but he has the the ability from day one to learn, make adjustments, grow, and then take. Have a feeling he will disappoint at first...probably be called a bust by some...snd then do the same thing. What I'm really curious about is his defense. We keep hearing he's average at best. But we also bear he's a good athlete with at least a decent arm. Really wish we knew more about his defensive potential.

Don't know how, but bad actually forgotten Thorpe was an international signing. Sano, Polanco and Kepler were all signed in '08-09. Rosario was drafted the same time frame. Berrios, I believe, a year or two later. Say what you want about the previous FO, but they did a hell of a job in those couple of years.

The whole international signing period reminds me, though the players are younger, of college football recruiting. Except, of course, that money is involved. [unless we are talking SEC and then money is definitely involved. I kid, I kid]. More than the draft, you are talking about recruiting and personal connections and ATTEMPTING to project athleticism, build and development on a different scale than a college player or HS player...couple years older than these signings...which have usually attended various camps and tournaments. In the draft, there are dealings and relationships that deal with slot value, but you still get to draft who you want when your spot is up. This is so much more about trusting in your scouts and what they believe the future holds.

Maybe it's bad memory/cluttered head or personal optimism/hyperbole, but I don't remember this many good arms in the system since the early and mid 80's. [Yes I'm dating myself some]. Not to bring up bad memories, but back then we had Bumgarner, Gasser, Nivens, Sontag, Banks, Newman and Pittman. Names ring a bell? NOT trying to lay down a curse, as pretty much all those guys flamed out for various reasons, but the depth of good looking arms in the system is the best I have seen in 30 years!

Wow, I had forgotten both those names. Thought Winfree would hit his way on to the club and maybe develop a little more power. Wasn't Oeltjen comparable to Rich Becker? The memory sometimes fades.

Funny how some old, largely forgotten, names of some past prospects have been brought up. But in all seriousness, and no slight meant to anyone, there are guys like David in the 30 range that would have been top 10-15 just a few years ago. Then you look at a guy like Poppen, who it could be argued is too low, having a fine season and flashed some legitimate MLB stuff in his cup of coffee at the bottom of the list! Two other things that strike me are: 1] Despite graduating so much talent to the Twins the past 3-4 seasons, the system is not only NOT depleted, but even deeper and stronger. 2] Interesting how many guys on this list have been added just in the past couple of years. Not only that, with juries still out of course, several acquired via trade. Absolutely ammunition for the future of the Twins, but ammo for decent trade options as well. And we sure cant keep them all.

Sorry, no. I'm still in on Tony Watson from the Giants for another LH who won't cost much, has had a nice career, and is still performing well. Then bring in a top RH arm to team with Rogers. HUGE improvement and depth with what we have. I'd be happy I think.

Great post and very informative! Fair or not I wonder if some are confusing Romero and Graterol. Not directly or absolutely, but seeing a young fireballer suddenly struggle. Maybe part of the "why can't we have nice things" arguement. HOPEFULLY, Graterol's injury turns out to be minor. But 20yo with stuff dominating AA when most guys his age are in A ball or lower? Just healthy and continuing to learn and grow is the important thing. My goodness, even 2 years away he would be young!

Count me as an optimist for this group, as well as the rest of the top 10. (Even beyond) Graterol is being fast tracked to AA at only 20yr old? And we are worried about SO numbers when most kids his age are in A or low A? PLEASE. My only concern is health. Let's say he has a blip and doesn't hit MLB until he's an "ancient" 22-23yr old. Come on! Wander, yea, he just needs to be healthy. All the talent in the world. Is he injury prone? Or is he just still growing in to his body? Time will tell, but I'd sure give him time at only 20. Were I a trade partner with the Twins, I'd be jumping on Larnach. Big bat and fast riser. The injury bug has, unfortunately, hit a lot of top prospects in the system, including Kirilloff. Stinks! But would you bet against him long term? Honestly, I think he's going to be special. And regarding the depth in the system...a hunch maybe...i think I'd keep him even beyond Lewis. That being said, I would do all I can to keep Lewis. Think about this for a second, he's only 20 and in A+ ball. Most guys his age are in rookie ball. But a great 2018 has some of us down on him why? Because we thought/hoped he'd be in the majors at 21? The depth and potential of this system is outstanding, I know a few guys are going to be gone in a couple of weeks. I just hope we are smart and make the right moves without giving up too much.

This one of the guys at the top of my list. Yes, he has regressed a bit and not having a great 2019. Not horrible, but not great. But not only are RP volitle in nature, but like anyone, sometimes wrong place and wrong time. He's healthy, under 30, can still bring it, and a change of scenery and a really nice pitching coach and winning team can do wonders. Sound like a team we know? Plus he is controlled for a 2nd season. Yes, we need another LH. There a couple guys already mentioned from the port side I like. And while some disagree with me, I like May and think he's starting to get his breaking ball command back. And that is the key for him. But Rogers is no LOOGY. And when crunch time comes, this team needs another LH out of the pen unless Mejia, Smeltzer or Thorpe suddenly finds they can do that. Would a couple weeks make you feel good about that? Were I in charge, I'd pick up the best RHRP I could find with at least 1 year of control to team with Rogers. Iglesius is near the top of my list. Rental or not, I'd be looking at someone like Watson, proven and still solid, as my LH option.

Love your comment and agree 100% Blake. What I find so fascinating about ML SP is the debate about #1 SP and who and what an ACE is. Loving and following BB for over 45yrs now, I have seen TOP prospects fizzle, and more than a few guys who liiked like an ACE very early and then through injury or whatnot, taper off to being very good. Of course, there have been those special pitchers, thinking Clemens as an example, who were good from day one and maintained it. But those guys are RARE. Maybe I'm wrong, and someone could make a lengthy and impressive list to counter me, but it has been my experience over the years that truly top of tbe roation SP usually hit their stride in their late 20's and seem to maintain that status through their early 30's and even maintain until about 34/35. There are exceptions of longer and shorter, of course. There are arguments that Berrios is not an ACE. But he keeps getting better and better. I think an arguement could be made that his last 3 starts, all no-decision or loss, has been some of the best games he has thrown. Odorizzi was a top prospect who turned out to be solid but not great. Now, late 20's, with a new team and coaches, we are perhaps seeing the best of him and his potential. Despite his numbers and success, he's not often a 7 IP tbe way Berrios often is. That may hold back any discussion as to being a true ACE. And can he sustain what he is now doing for another 2-4 years? Time will tell. But I sure wouldn't dismiss the possibility. I argued before the season began that Pineda would be solid, and get better, as long as he was healthy and his IP were monitored. I stated that Gibson and Pineda may be the 2 guys we tried to bring back. Not saying I was wrong, but I may have been short-sighted in regard to Odorizzi. I was wrong about bringing Perez onboard. Then can't believe it, but I was actually defending him when he slumped. But I felt he was victim to a couple bad plays, mistake pitches, and was still showing some very good moments. Then he goes out and pitches a great rebound game in that disappointing 18 inning marathon. I don't have answers to the future but like you, I think this FO and staff is pretty smart. Cost and years will be the deciding factor, of course. But right now, I think this team has a budding ACE. I would love to see both Gibson and Odorizzi brought back. History and age would tell me Gibson will not break the bank. But I do wonder about the cost for Odorizzi. Perhaps comjng in to his own in his late 20's, does a depressed market make him affordable even after a career year? Or does past career numbers and a career year prove to be an outlier and nobody will offer the big 4-5yr deal at $20M and make him more easily extendable/re-signed by the Twins?

This! A "lousy", .500 week with an 18 inning game, jet lag, road trip, guys banged up, guys just coming off the IL, with legitimate chances to win every lost game...yeah...give me this week as the bottom of our barrell.

By no means am I comparing Lewis and Cavaco by saying they are the same athlete, or have identical skill sets, or anything of that nature. But I've always thought it was interesting/fascinating how someone so supremely talented as Lewis, considered a legitimate future ML SS didn't even play the spot until his senior year. The answer appears to be an upperclassmen who was pretty good. So now, you have another really good athlete who reportedly has the arm, range and quick reaction skill set to be fine 3B. Why the neck not just try him at SS to see what you have. May end up with a surprise, you never know. Man, just a couple years ago we had Dozier and that was about it. Depth may change with trades, but man do we have some good looking options from the ML club on down!

BTW, been a believer in Kepler for a while now. Really thought 2018 might be the start of his coming of age season. Obviously wrong on that one,and admit it. But I also state I have been on record as to believing it was only a matter of time and growth before he put it together and dismissed opinion he was a 4th OF. The guy just exudes athletic talent and potential. I was just a season, maybe, late for when it would all start to coalesce for him. Funny how 2 years ago Rosario was a 4th OF. And a BTW, Polanco could never play SS. This past off season, Kepler was a 4th OF. Absolutely NOT picking on anyone! Just stating how frustrating the word "patience" can be. We might remember that ugly word when we think about and discuss Sano.

Not going to post twinssporto for brevity, but agree with his comments. End of June and a rash of injuries and questions about the BP and this team has yet to lose mkre than 2 games in a row??!! This team absolutely believes in itself! 1] A little disappointed Pineda didn't start the 7th. But I also see what Rocco is doing here. Very smart! Let him continue on his recovery arc and be effective for the whole season. 2] Anyone else notice that after a 7-10 stretch the pen has actually been damn good? Not saying we don't need improvement, but the rebound has been great and unexpected. 3] Sano: What do you say? He's rebounding emotionally, physically and mentally from a lost season with zero ST and possibly an abbreviated milb rehab. He looks good. Then he looks awefull. Pathetic even. SSS, he's on a sudden terror. I saw one AB today where Nova was pitching him outside. Not WAY outside as we've seen recently. And he stood tall, didn't swing or check swing, and took the BB. something is happening/changing. In the broadcast today, there was serious and joking commentary about Cruz and Sano having fun mimicking one another on HR trots. And a comment was made that you couldn't ask for a better example on the club for Sano, and his maturation, than having Cruz on the team. I don't think this should be glossed over as hyperbole. Excited to see Thorpe in his debut tomorrow!