DocBauer

Wasn't openly stated if you are simply saying next man up as the roster sits now, or projecting best man up for the 5th rotation spot. I am assuming the latter as... 1] Berrios/Acquisition 2] Acquisition/Berrios 3] Odorizzi 4] Pineda/Acquisition ...would seem logical. I agree Dobnak makes the most sense at this point as 1st choice for the last spot. His stuff is decent and he knows how to pitch. How good he can become, obviously, is to be determined. Smeltzer, Thorpe and Graterol will all offer still competition. And all 4 will help at some point. Should also point out that if Pineda is back, we are going to need a couple of these guys the first 30 days or so.

Just to re-iterate something I've speculated on previously, Dyson could sign a deal something similar to what Pineda did. Something like a cheap 1yr deal for rehab time and then a contract for 2021, possible with guaranteed money and incentives vs fully guaranteed. They may just move on. But they may decide they already have an investment here and would like to see a potential return.

Agreed Smith could be too costly, and have too many suitors, to become a Twin. Diekman and Pomeranz could be outstanding and for less cost. Going to disagree on Dobnak only because I think he has a pretty good shot at being the 5th SP. There will be competition, for sure, but I wouldn't pencil him in for this role until that is decided. Small detail, but just where I'm going with it. Very possible, IMO, there really isn't a true 8th man in the pen as it could be a constant rotation spot between Minnesota and Rochester as needed. Well thought out and agree on everything except the Dobnak comment.

I absolutely agree with this, and the premise of the entire OP. And as I've stated a couple times, I think Odorizzi is back in some fashion. Makes too much sense for both parties. I still feel Pineda is back for pretty much the same reason, though his situation is a bit more gray, no pun intended. That still leaves another very important acquisition that needs to take place. I've said several times I'm 50/50 on a FA vs an impact trade. The biggest problem is, the FO, the analytics department Rocco and Johnson aren't going to share their viewpoints on ANY of the proposed additions until they actually make a move. Nor should they be expected to do so. I don't see Kershaw being offered up. I just don't. Same with Paddack. The Padres appear pretty close and have a lot of young talent. I don't really follow the Reds, but from the outside, I'm not sure I know what they are doing. I'm not convinced they do either. Gray could be available for a quality package and intrigues me. I'm buy low on Archer. I could be way off base, but he always struck me as big arm with big SO numbers that never reached the next level. Is that because of playing for some not so great teams or just hadn't taken the next step or what? Seems the Pirates lost in the deal to get him. Would they be willing to just move on for a handful of quality prospects at this point? Or would they be more inclined to hire a new pitching coach and see what 2020 brings?

Going to post a short follow up after reading several intelligent, if passionate posts. 1] I think jts a valid arguement Buxton was promoted too early when he had some rough edges that additional milb time might have smoothed over. Remember, some injuries robbed him of said developmental time. Also, there should have been a better plan in place by the previous FO so he wasn't rushed. Same thing happened to Hicks, if you recall. Technically, his service time probably started a little earlier than it should have. This is NOT picking on Byron at all, just reflecting on opinions and 20/20 hindsight that is clearly evident. 2] While this opinion is debatable to be sure, I think it could be easily argued that after a disappointing, miserable and jnjury-plagued 2018, even after a hot streak the last few weeks didn't earn him a promotion back up, he may have been better off not coming up and just having his season and when it did. Why? What if he had dinged himself again? What if be bas struggled poorly at the end of a lost season? Both situations could have lead to a different Buxton than the one we saw the first half of 2019. He worked hard gained muscle, and flashed the tremendous talent and potential we have been waiting to see before his shoulder injury shelved him. I think the FO was being extremely forthright when they stated, very openly, that service time was only one part of the equation. And based on agreed terms, it was there right after a lost season to use that consideration. But I think they were also open and honest that their greatest concern was getting him right for 2019.

Me personally, I'm weary of the arguement as it feels we've already been down this road multiple times before. I like Buxton. I believe in a healthy Buxton. I believe the team does as well, and would love to pay him a nice extended contract. But considering all the injuries and poor performance, I just dont see how a hot streak at the end of the AAA season necessarily warranted some automatic ML promotion for a player who had been through so much.

Hilarious! But one thought I had, as a follow up, that might sound crazy considering the OF pipeline we have coming up. Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach just aren't ready yet. And while I like Cave and think Wade has a chance, what about bringing in a different 4th OF with speed and defense and ML experience? I don't have a list of potentials in front of me at the moment...getting tired and retiring for the evening...but might there be such an OF on the cheap side to push their way on the roster, or AAA depth with a possible out that would make sense? Asking.

Absolutely! Just because he didn't tantalize everyone by skyrocketing to MLB by age 22, doesn't mean he doesn't have real potential still. I made similar comments in the recent Gordon particular article that I'd like to have him, we're I the Twins or another team. He is coming of a quality AAA season, even if jt was somewhat abbreviated. After a hot start followed by injury, be was probably brought up before Arraez. We will never know. And as I also stated in the other post, Adrianza actually hit in milb, but never received an extended stay at the ML level. Neither did Escobar. But what happened over time? Sometimes, we are just too impatient and quick to judge. Unless traded, I expect to see Gordon spend time with the Twins in 2020 at some point. He has ability to field, hit, get OB, run, and even provide some pop. How quickly will he show any of this and develop is a mystery. But so was the case for both Adrianza and Escobar. Note: You want an interesting prospect to watch for 2020 that nobody really knows or talks about? Andrew Bechtold. A year from now, we could be talking about him as a 2021 ready to make an appearance as a 1B/2B/3B/OF option. Sorry if I got off track somewhat.

I want to agree with you, and mostly do, but not bringing back Cron doesn't increase team speed. This kind of goes back to my previous post a short while ago...re-read I found some ugly typos and a team HR comment I blew because I was distracted, embarrassed now, lol...in regard to Lewis becoming a future fixture at 3B, or wherever yada yada. However you construct your team, you want to put the best, deepest and most versatile lineup together you can. This not only your starting, primary 9, but your reserves as well. With or without Cron, the Twins have a powerful and productive lineup. And there is athleticism and speed on hand, though only Buxton has elite speed. But Rosario, Kepler, Polanco and even Cave all have pretty good speed. And speed is not just about SB, but also taking the extra base and legging out XB hits. I think the Twins do that pretty well as constructed. I ABSOLUTELY hope and wish they would steal a few more bases and play a little more hit and run to put pressure on the other team. But I'm not certain they are built that way at the moment. And unless you find a Erstad to play 1B, replacing Cron will not increase increase team speed. Now, in theory, Lewis at 3B, or wherever, and Sano at 1B, or Kirilloff, etc, then you HAVE added more speed. Again, that may be a year away. Removing Cron at this point just doesn't increase team speed without a significant change to tbe roster. NOTE: When things change, and things start to level, everyone is looking for the next change/advantage. The recent successful Royals teams relied on defense, bullpen and speed. The Dirty Sox saw improvement by running more to help their offense. Despite a radical shift to power and launch angles and the such, one of these days, probably sooner than later, someone is going to put together a quality staff and be content with 180-200 HR with a TON of doubles and re-invent the idea of the SB with contact and hit and run and drive other teams nuts.

Agreed. I know people don't want to hear this, but I think Lewis could be the next 3B. And it's not because he can't play or won't play at SS. It's because I believe he has the athleticism to be good there, and the arm. I disagree with those who suggest his talent would be "wasted" there. Now, ultimately, we don't knkw his offensive potential just yet, or how much power he will have. But saying his talented woukd be a waste at 3B is like saying A-Rod or Machado were "wasted" at 3B because they could also play SS. And I NOT saying Lewis WON'T take over SS and shuffle the infield where Polanco or Arraez ends up 3B. My thoughts are based more on Lewis's ability, and continued improvement from both Polanco and Arraez. At the end of the day, you want the most talent on the field and in the lineup you can have. If you have 5 guys in your lineup at various positions, does it matter what position they play? If your offense is excellent and your DH or 1B is a hitting, OB machine who sets the table, are you truly lacking? A long way of agreeing with you and simply stating there are moving parts not yet ready who could change the structure of the lineup in the near future. Improvement from what is on hand is not too much to be expected. And a healthy Cron is a pretty nice and relatively inexpensive part to plug in to the 2020 lineup. BTW, despite all I have said, I could easily see Sano as the primary DH who also plays 1B and 3B in a year or two, with the idea of Lewis taking a spot and 1B being Kirilloff, Larnach or Rooker. Guys don't have to be pigeonholed in to a single spot. Nor does your DH HAVE to be ONE GUY every day if your roster is deep, talented and flexible.

Have already commented about Castro being back and my choice. He absolutely did tail off later in the season. (Also why I'm not sure he gets a bug offer anywhere else). I think the split becomes more 60/40 next season which should still be very productive and keep everyone fresh and healthy.

Going to disagree with you here. I don't expect Sano to ever be great at 3B. But I like his charging, like his ability to chase pop ups and foul balls, LOVE his arm, just want him a little more consistent on the balls he can get to. No question he is a big man and his range is limited. But he's young enough that if he just keeps working...and it seems his ethic has really changed...I could see improvement in this area. To me the improvement, for now, comes from Polanco and Arraez. Personally, from what I saw most of the year, I thought Cron played a pretty solid 1B.

Agreed. But that's what we are talking about isn't it? I don't think the market offers up a better option. Nobody else is ready just yet. And while Marwin and Adrianza can play 1B, I don't want either there daily. And if you move the still young Sano to 1B, now you have the same situation on the other side.

Yes to bringing him back if the thumb checks out. No brainer to me when I see what he did in 2018 and the first half of last season. Personally, I think a raise from $4.8M to the projected $7.7 is a little high, but whatever. It isn't enough to dismay me from bringing him back. Moving Sano to 1B doesn't guarantee any improvement, now there is a hole at 3B to fill, it's really too early to not allow Sano more developmental time at 3B, future 1B options are at least part of a season away, and I really don't want to take Marwin out of his current role by making him a full time starter at one spot. [breath] Healthy, it's a no brainer to me for a 1yr deal

Pretty close to what I was thinking. Anywhere from $750K-$1M first year. Your $7M is probably fair. I was thinking more like $5M guaranteed with bonuses that would take him up to $7M+

Been on record as saying I wasn't crazy about Bumgarner as a mid season pick up last year, but am full in on signing him now. I'm trusting decent peripherals on a bad team, not yet 31yo, career numbers, experience, a change of scenery, and Wes Johnson.

Coming of his first "full" season at AAA, (yes, injuries shortened his year), with quality numbers, he remains an "intriguing" prospect for the Twins and other organizations. He is no longer a headline prospect, but I dare say he is much better than some throw in option. He appears to be a late, not old, developer who brings a lot, potentially, to the table. Probably not a star, but a potential starter of good quality, he could provide solid defense at two positions, with a decent bat, some OB and contact, combined with speed and some pop. I sure wouldn't mind having him. He reminds me a bit of Adrianza and Escobar. Remember, Adrianza produced fairly well in milb but was a glove first player, and Escobar was similar. Late bloomers have a place, either as quality role players or potential starters. If not traded, I feel Gordon will play for the Twins in 2020 at some point. The skill set is there. At some point, he may replace Adrianza, or could be the next Marwin. Hard to say. 2020 could be his make or break season.

So much talent, so much stuff, so much potential, I ABSOLUTELY believe this kid has ACE potential. At the WORST, he is a tremendous #2. What holds him back? You mean, continued growth as a still 25yo? He just needs to find a little more "repeatability" with his secondary stuff. He has alread shown the ability to adjust in game when a certain pitch isn't there. As Ted spoke of, his biggest problem seems to be late season. His ethic and conditioning are not a concern. Were I to speculate on his routine, I would guess a little more cardo work, combined with a little less "hard" work late in the year to preserve his endurance. Just guess work on my part.

Where is Thrylos in this conversation. Lol He, like me, will point out OPS numbers not only in the minors, but at the MLB level. Look, like a lot of great sluggers, be will SO some, more than we might like, but he can/has/Will hit decently. He will also take walks. "Haters" will focus on 2018 and that stretch in June where he was ABYSMALL for outside pitches. But what did he do? He adjusted. Defensively, he's OK. There is no debate about his arm. Even a year ago, there was debate about chasing foul balls. I think that debate has been put to rest. Even with diet and conditioning, he is a large, muscular man. He is surprisingly nimble charging a ball. Personally, I think the former SS has decent to good hands. Some disagree. OK. But his lateral range may always be suspect. Even with time, work, development, being only average defensively wouldn't exactly be a bad thing. I DO THINK he could be a good 1B, tranitioning his 3B skills to 1B. But his bat/production has finally arrived, and will probably only get better. And I am more than fine with him as the 3B for 2020. Trades may mess this up, probably will to some degree, but a year, or so, from now, I'd love to see a combination of Sano/Lewis/Kirillof/Larnach/Rooker/etc man 1B/3B/DH/OF in different, versatile combinations.

Going to say some things here that sound contradictory, but bear with my points. With some, and against some, I am a huge fan of Astudillo, and not just because he is fun. FO, manager, coaches, teammates all love him for so many reasons. But that is not enough of a reason to keep him. And while nothing special, at all, defensively, the guy is a gamer and solid wherever you play him. And despite some late season flailing at outside pitches that made him look bad, the guy can hit. NOT exactly, but for intent and purpose, he was virtually a late blooming rookie coming off of his 2018 performance. He hit before he got hurt. When he came back, he struggled a bit, then got in a nice groove, then got hurt again after his wall collision. Just never looked the same after that on his return, IMO. I think he is a very useful and versatile player who can hit, hit well, and produce when used in a semi-regular basis. I also think he's a pretty decent catcher. In fact, I'm not so sure he couldn't be a he'll of a backup backstop option. But I don't feel comfortable, at this point, as the primary option. I don't know that Castro is "special", but I think he is undersold as a presence to the staff and the team. Is it just co-incidence the team was better in '17 and '19 when available? Maybe. For reasons I just don't understand, I've always felt the catcher position in baseball bas always been underrated. Castro will be 32 to start next season. He had a nice and productive season as a roughly 50/50 backstop coming off knee surgery. Is there a team who will look at age and 2019 and decide he can play 120 games? As someone else pointed out...too tired to remember and look back...would it be a competitive team? Or will his market prove dry? Best of luck to him if he can find a really nice multi year deal. But I am betting a deal with the Twins for $4-6M for a year, maybe 2, and a chance to win, being something like a 40/60 backstop trumps anything else he finds. And it makes so much sense for both sides.

Congrats to Rowson for his promotion. I don't fully understand this move to a team like the Marlins, but it obviously should increase his pay and progression to a possible manager role some day. But the Marlins? Best of luck to him. My first thought was surprise, and then "damn, we lost a really good coach!" And then I thought about Ash's comments...and then I thought a little bit more...and I suddenly thought "huh, maybe he's right". NOT a knock on Rowson at all, but after 3 years, even after an amazing season, maybe a different voice can offer up a little different perspective that can tweak all this talent just a little more. And this FO seems to have a really good eye for coaching talent. Sometimes surprisingly so. Call me "uncomfortable" losing Rowson, but optimistic they will make a fine addition here.

Just going to say, if you followed the system last season, Raley was in line for a promotion, possibly ahead of Cave, who might have won out due to experience. His ankle injury as very disappointing! To see him flashing now and getting ready for 2020 is exciting to me. If you recall, Twins were high enough on him that he played a lot in ST last season, including a lot of CF despite being thought more of a corner OF or 1B. A reflection of his athleticism. Kid shows hit and OB ability with power and decent speed. Really disappointed by his injury last year and really excited to see what he does healthy this coming season. Don't sleep on him.

Tremendous OP, Ted. And you hit it right on the head! Prospects are still just prospects, until they prove otherwise. Thank you Captain Obvious! LOL But at the end of the day, internal development has proven over and over again to be the foundation of good teams. I DESPISE saying anything positive about the Yankees, but for years they tried to build championship teams by flexing financial muscle. Now, they still have that ability and use it, but they built most of their championship teams, in recent memory, with a foundation that was home grown. As currently constructed, even if it was "inherited" talent, the Twins have that kind of core. With this FO, and before, some pieces were brought in through trade of talent. When Falvey and Levine talk about building a sustainable organization, there is, IMO, a huge misunderstanding taking place. Building tbat sustainable organization does not mean ONLY building with home grown talent and "hording" prospects. When has that EVER been stated by anyone involved with the organization? BUT, building and improving the internal talent base not only means you have talented promotionsl/replacement talent, it means you have enough flexibility to trade milb talent for players, or replace ML talent traded away. There are debates that the Twins system lacks "top end" prospects, but there is little to no debate they have a deeply rich system. One could argue, rather easily, that many of the prospects in the system ranked 11-30 would be top 10-20 for many teams. Just for giggles, glance at some of the guys who played for AA Pensacola in 2019. Would you WANT to trade Balazovic, Colina, Duran, Jax, Ober, Sands, Jeffers, Rortvedt, Blenkenhorn, Miranda. Or WOULD you in a good deal? And this is just names from a single affiliate. There has been a TON of debate at the trade moves Houston has made, from a deep system, to acquire quality talent without ever touching it's top 3-5 prospects in any individual deal. This is important to remember. Do the Twins really have to part with Graterol, Lewis and Khirilloff to make a major move with the depth they have? The organization has the money and opportunity to make a few smart re-signs, as well as the financial flexibility/opportunity to add another high quality SP and RP from outside the organization. And these opportunities HAVE to be explored! Maybe we are floored! Maybe we are only slightly happy because they have to "settle" for a really nice addition or two to augment an already good team. But in whatever incarnation you wish to dream about or present, the organization is also PRIMED to make a nice trade, or two, to enhance the current roster. Today, right now, the FO has been on the job for a little over 2 1/2 years. And they have been aggressive from the top down in many ways. To say they will continue to horde prospects and do nothing because that is the way things have been done before is misguided and short sighted.

I kind of laugh when I hear the Gwynn comparisons. Gwynne was an OF, had pretty decent speed despite a build that wouldn't dictate such and developed some power over time. If memory serves correctly, like Boggs, he was asked to slj3de down in tbe lineup one year and showed even more power. But like Boggs, his other batting numbers slipped. But then I shake my head and reflect and realize the comparison is very just. His look, his confidence, his image ability to see the ball, make contact with it, and spray it all over the field is very comparable! We talk at times about "pitchability", a made up word we all understand. But some guys, like Arraez, just have a natural "hitability" factor. He doesn't need "power", though it would be nice. He just needs legitimate "pop" for doubles and solid line drives to keep defenses and pitchers honest. Not yet 23yo, we've already seen some "man muscle" begin to develop. Defensively, he is a work in progress. Not surprising. But I have seen nothing to tell me he can't be a fine 2B. In fact, despite a few errors here and there, I watched him at 2B/SS/3B/LF, and saw enough really good plays to wonder what all the concern was. For those who wonder how be flew under the radar, no offense, but you simply not follow the milb system as close as some of us do. His missed season clearly messed with his rankings. And not playing an "elite" defensive position like SS/CF/C probably lowered his rankings as well. But he has produced since day one. Kid is real and a gem.

I just don't see Rosario going anywhere at this time. He is a very, very nice player and a lot of teams would love to have him. He'd probably even play CF for a few teams. But by himself, he won't bring in a stud pitcher. Part of a package, yes. But then you create a hole. And the top prospects aren't ready to replace him yet. And, unfortunately, there are still questions about Buxton being healthy. The Twins have tons of milb depth to trade for a quality SP, if that is the direction they go. And you like to deal from depth. That depth does exist in the minors as part of a deal. Not traded, that depth could allow for a trade of Rosario before 2021.