DocBauer

On the milb level, my 3 biggest disappointments have been Gonsalves, Raley and Javier. Unfortunately, luck and baseball gods are not always kind. Gonsalves is a better version of Smeltzer. And I love Smeltzer! Despite criticism he has earned, some warranted I think, Gonsalves has done absolutely nothing but perform at every level. I have stated repeatedly, and do so again now, he WILL NOT come up to MLB and dominate. He will do what he he has always done, which is "pitch" and learn and adapt and end up being anywhere from a nice #3 To AT WORST a high quality #5. He even showed glimpses late last season. But to expect anything from him this year is a fools errand. This time next year, I'd expect a few people to hopefully say; "Doc, you were right to believe. We have a pitcher here". Hildenberger? Man, I would jump for joy, try a handstand, or do anything I could, even if it meant embarrassing myself if the GOOD Hildenberger would suddenly be consistent. Graterol is the one I could agree with. Call me unconvinced. His talent and potential are amazing! I don't subscribe to "babying" a player. And his arm talent is AMAZING! And if he could help now, go for it! But he has yet to pitch above AA or pitch with a ML ball. IDK, maybe he'd surprise. I'd be more inclined to think about preparing him for 2020.

IMHO, point 3 seems to be the accurate one. He was pitching through a problem and gutted it out and didn't tell anyone. I know physicals take place before any player is signed or traded for. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe I am. However, if this would be a "soft tissue" injury, such as tendonitis or something similar, that would not be caught in any rudimentary exam. That would indicate Dyson was "gutting it out" as an athlete or being deceptive. How else could you paint it? He has openly admitted the situation. The Twins have filed no grievance at this point. That means rules state they can't because it slipped through. OR, they believe the injury is insignificant enough to allow rest and rehab time to contribute the remainder of this season and the next. I will root like he'll for a healthy Dyson. But right now, he's not looking so good to me.

To be honest, I'm very surprised by Antony's comments. Oh, I have complete faith/hope in this kid to be sure! He has an ELECTRIC arm and wicked stuff and only needs a little more consistency and better off speed to potentially be special. But still only 20 for a couple more weeks, even with a missed season, and already dominating at AA WHEN HEALTHY, I'm still surprised. Most guys his age are in rookie or A ball. Even if they didn't miss a year! I am all for aggressive promotion, even as I often preach patience at times. And this FO is so much more aggressive than the previous one. But no matter how talented, they could be considering a pitcher from his first season in AA coming off an injury to jump to the ML level to help this year? Long term, would such a trial actually benefit his long term development? If he is at Pensacola in the next few days and dominates for the remainder of August I guess I could imagine it. He's added to the 40 man and is eligible and you could take a look-see. But I just don't see it, IMO. If they are right, then not only are they geniuses, but whatever supplements they are on, whatever they eat or otherwise, I want to know so I can jump on board.

I also was confused by that comment and thought the same thing you did. I don't want to speak for Ted, but IMO, he was referencing the previous Darvish situation, any other SP that may have been on the market last offseason...though memory doesn't recall many...as well as speculating for 2020 as well.

Outstanding OP, Ted! For me, IMO, I was very happy with the moves the Twins made...with the OBVIOUS caveat I want a healthy and productive Dyson ASAP! Some might claim I am "Pollyanna" in regard to the roster and a sense of hoarding prospects, but that is not the case at all. Just as the Cubs and Astros made key moves at key times, I believe the Twins are ready, or nearly ready to do so. This is NOT the time and place to debate options, more or less, or earlier FA for players, etc. It's about the reality if the system in place and how it works. Over the past few seasons, the majority of MLB teams have combined history with analytics to change the face of the game when it comes to roster building and player acquisition: 1] I despise the term "tanking" in any sport as it has such a negative connotation. But the reality is, if your team truly has no chance to compete for playoffs or a championship, why not play younger, less expensive players, promote in a very aggressive fashion, and begin to develop what you have as quickly as possible. This leads to the BASE foundation of your team. We have also seen legal ways of manipulating the draft within baseball to acquire additional prospects. Trading veterans who won't be there when the franchise turns around is well established in all sports. 2] And this actually combines somewhat with my first point, the FA market has changed dramatically the past few years. Some guys still get big to huge paydays. But history has shown big, long term contracts often don't end up paying out in any equal proportion over time. (Big market teams can obviously still absorb these lost dollars much more so then mid or small market teams). 3] Combined with points 1 and 2, the value, or perceived value, of prospects, those a team has and those acquired, have risen in value as teams look for alternatives for a re-build, or to supplement a good team vs the over 30yr old FA route. Despite a flash in 2017 that lead to a nice finish and a WC birth, and a disappointing 2018 that coulda/shoulda been better than it was, 2019 is the season when the fruits of labor and patience are just starting to really pay off for the Twins and the BASE they have been building. And for the most part, it is still a very young team. Meanwhile, in addition to development at the ML level, the FO has made a few smart and key moves while continuing to build one of the best milb systems around. (Along with coaching and approach changes). This was the FIRST season with new deadline rules in place. A first for every team in contention, for every team believing they may be in contention, and for those teams out of contention. Despite the requisite rumors, very few BIG NAME players were actually moved. If rumors are to be believed, even to a cautious degree, there were a lot of high demands placed on proposed trades. All that being not only said, but proven by the various changes we can clearly see happening, was this really the year for the Twins to throw caution to the wind? I think not.i think the FO made a pair of really smart moves to add to one of the best teams in MLB without sacrificing the near and impending future. I think they handled THIS season correctly. And this team has a chance, make no mistake about it. And that's what you play for, in any sport, a real chance. I dislike referring to players as "capital", but in proper context, they are. And when this next off season comes, the Twins have a ton of player capital to make a move or two to build up with. Of course, I want their crystal ball to work to the degree where they keep the very best options and trade away the ones that won't come back to haunt. WAY TOO EARLY speculation, I'd say 50-50 roughly, maybe 60-40, the Twins will trade 4-5 prospects in their top 30 for a top rotation piece that is established, or maybe just primed to take the next step. I firmly believe at least 1 of our current rotation arms are back, and very possibly 2, on some sort of extension/1yr deal. Trade or FA possibly another BP arm. They will also, as they should, take on a couple of fliers. But right now, I feel the "hoarding" of prospects in 2019...and I deliberately used quotes...was the correct move.

Arraez appears to be the real deal and our starting 2B next season and beyond. Despite slumping lately, Schoop is a nice player both offensively and defensively. Arraez is just out producing him. That doesn't mean Schoop doesn't have value. In fact, with Buxton out for a while, we may need Marwin more in the OF. That makes Schoop all the more valuable to allow Arraez to continue to be versatile.

I didn't see the play that caused the injury but sounds like it wasn't a really hard impact play. And for the most part, even with the concussion and wisdom teeth situation, he's been available most of the season until now. I understand injuries in the past but he also has had some "bad luck" incidents. With his build up, with him playing deeper, i am not yet going down the injury prone road. But dang it! Cave is NOT old, though he is a bit of a late bloomer. No crime in that. He showed us last season, as a rookie with fairly regular playing time, what he is capable of. He has raked at Rochester this season. Despite poor ML numbers to this point in 2019m to just dismiss him would be a mistake, IMO. Other than a quick return for Buxton, the Twins really need 2 things right now: 1] Cave to work with Rowson intently to re-discover what he is missing, or to better translate what he did last year and has been doing at Rochester. And Cave needs to relax, just have fun and let the game come to him, and just quit worrying about making an impression before another possible shuttle to Rochester. 2] Marwin to get out of his slump. He can easily be a successful part of a still quality OF situation.

Couldn't join the thread tonight but wish I could have. Great game! Odorizzi was quality, May started to look like the guy want him to be think he could be and seemed to be flashing again before that recent bad stretch. (Harper didn't have it tonight, but it happens). The offense did a little bit of everything, including Sano's amazing BOMBA. The BA is still a little low, of course but Sano had built a bit of a hole for himself in that regard. But he has been looking like a very different player after that truly ugly stretch he had in June. I sure hope some of the doubts and bashing are beginning to fall away. Sure seems like they have. Oh, BTW, the Twins are a very, very good baseball team.

Surprised nobody commented here. It was a very nice piece! I guess they were too busy on the post game thread. I think the jury is still out on Smeltzer. Just to SSS at this point. And any pitcher who doesn't have good/Great velocity or a killer breaking ball is always going to be questioned. Deservedly so. But the true art of pitching is location, disrupting a batter's timing and view-plain. Smeltzer seems to have the ability to due those things. As much as we can argue SSS, we can also argue youth, inexperience and inconsistent playing time at the ML level with his Rochester shuttle trips as a reason to also expect him to continue developing and performing well. I think it's 50-50 the Twins make some major move in the off season for a top rotation arm to join Berrios. Regardless, at least 1 of Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda should be back. If they don't make that bold move, I'd say at least 2 are back. I just don't know about said major move AND bringing back 2 of those guys but I'd be all in for that! Regardless, I believe the Twins will go to ST next year with 4 spots in the rotation filled, and I don't necessarily mean Perez, though he is a possibility. What I think and believe is 4 spots filled, and the 5th spot open for Perez, maybe another similar flier, Smeltzer and Thorpe, with Graterol a ways away due to lost time this season. This gives the rotation a ton of depth and flexibility and Smeltzer as good of a chance as anyone to fill that 5th rotation spot. Also agree Arreaz just has an IT factor. And he's only going to get better. Not maintain some crazy .350 BA, but improve pop and defense etc. No offense to Gordon, but I think we have our starting 2B for the next several years. Enjoyed a little love for Cave. You look at his somewhat late blossoming, what he did last season, how he has raked at Rochester, and you just know he's not as bad as he's looked with the Twins in limited time thjs season. Lastly, I've always liked Castro and thought we missed him a lot in 2018, and for many reasons. Selfishly, I am hoping there is zero to limited FA value for him next off season and he comes back in a more modest 2yr deal somewhere in the $4M--ish range.

Great game, great win. Only way I can comment with depth and accuracy is to do the following: 1] Cruz is crazy good! He is far from being done! How could I, or anyone, possibly question his signing, in retrospect to be honest, over anyone else. Healthy, day to day, it could be easily argued Rosario, Kepler or Polanco is the best player on the team. But MAP for the Twins? Cruz, for ALL he has brought. 2] Gibson is good! And I don't just say that as a long time defender of him when some ignore his first two full seasons. I say that as someone who has watched his progress after hitting rock bottom in 2016 and the first half of 2017 before re-inventing himself. His illness, weight and strength loss and missing the bulk of ST is falling away as an excuse for 2019. But his numbers and results are actually still pretty good. We know what he CAN do on a daily performance. We have seen it. Can he round in to full, consistent performance shape the next two months? If he can, the Twins chances suddenly improve a great deal. 3] The bullpen is going to be pretty good from here on out with Romo and Dyson, despite a horrible debut from Dyson. These two veteran guys add a lot, plus tons of experience, to Rogers, Harper and the sudden/wonderful development of Duffy. No clue what is going on with May as he was rounding in to form, get shelled a couple of games, but is suddenly a 1 batter pitcher. Are they working on something? I am happy to see Littell up. What I saw last season was a young SP nervous and not ready and thrown in to some tough spots. The guy I have seen this season is young, but confident and throwing better stuff and may be a fixture going forward. Poppen has electric stuff if he can harness better control. Stashak might be even better. None of these kids were ready then, but I so wish we could rewind the season back a month to keep auditioning them. But there is still two months left to find out who is ready to help on the big stage. 4] Cron is back. And that is good in many ways. 5] Cruz is crazy good and may be the Twins MVP. I said that already? So what?

Very pleased by the early success of Wallner. Just wish he was going to spend the last month at CR. It would seem a natural progression and end to the year for him.

I don't know, that honorable mention list looks pretty good. Awesome to see what Gordon has done this season. Two straight seasons with a second half fade have been disconcerting. I remain a little leary about that still as his season started late. Has time, growth and continued physical maturation put that concern aside? Or could it still be a concern? Here is hoping for the former. Very encouraged not only by his hitting, but his OB and increased power. I think Arreaz is the 2B next season. And he might just be a fixture there. But in no way should Gordon be dismissed simply because he didn't progress and reach the ML level as quickly as hoped. Not so long ago, it seemed the Twins were not only thin, but borderline desperate for infield help. Suddenly we have Polanco, Arraez, Gonzalez, Adrianza, Gordon and even a young journeyman in Torreyes who has some ML experience and we haven't even had to consider him this season.

Still a little crazy the Twins pick up a successful veteran BP pitcher with experience for a couple low level prospects and our 29-30th ranked prospect and pick up a new 29-30th ranked prospect.

On the road, in the NL with, without Cruz. Meh. This team is good enough to win. And they did, winning 2 of 3. Let's not forget that folks. You consistently win 2 of 3, you have a tremdous team/record! Please don't misunderstand, I'm not happy with today, just some perspective. We want to bring last night in to today? OK. Personally, I would have sent Berrios out for the 8th with his performance and low pitch count. Potentially, Poppen has a great 9th, instead of 8th, and Berrios is fine with 90 pitches thrown. We still won. Blast Rocco all you want, but what he did has clearly done in other games, is try to keep his pitchers strong for late season and the post season. Same as he's done for his positional players, postponing and resting and trying to keep everyone healthy, productive and ready to go. I think Berrios could have and should have gone one more inning, but it is what it was. I have loved most of what Baldelli has done all season, but I DO disagree with using Dyson this afternoon. The arguement can be made, has been made, that he is a pro and should be used to travel, etc. BUT...and I don't know...is he married? Does he have kids? In 24 hours you have been traded, even if you are accepting and excited, to repack, get on a flight, call your family, start implementing plans, grab your bags and a ride, report to the stadium/hotel, whatever, meet your manager, pitching coach, teammates and catcher, and then go out and try to throw. No matter how much of a professional you are, that's a lot to deal with in 24hrs! May had a couple rough outings recently. So what? It hapoens! He was fresh and ready. There were other options. Dyson should have been allowed to at least settle in for a day and meet the staff and his team and be ready for the KC series. What would you expect Dyson to say as a professional and a competitor? "No. I'm not ready today."? Sorry Rocco. Love you. But this one is on you. (Bet he knows that).

Overall, a pair of nice moves and the team is better today than it was. I would have preferred someone a notch above Dyson, but he was a fine addition. The fact they didn't make a move for a rental LH is a bit puzzling. Thinking they like Thorpe and Smeltzer quite a bit and will roll with them. Except for Stroman and Greinke, no real big action at all. Kind of a weird deadline this season.

Right now, I am so confused. I need time to sort this all out. The Wets..,errr..,Mets, make a trade for Stoman because they will now go on a tear to compete, or flip him to another team who was already interested and will somehow/someway pay more more for Stroman than before..? Or they will be more likely to deal Syndergard now than before despite his injury history and poor 2019 ERA, (just an example) because they are so deep? The Indians trade their top SP for a couple of bats but weaken their rotation? This crap is crazy! And some want to question why the Twins FO are rubbing their hands together?

Jeremy, I think your scenarios are realistic and outstanding. I'm not sold on a 4th OF, but I completely get it. And it works if you remove Schoop from the roster equation. I would say 2 changes may be in order; Rooker might be a more welcome option than Larnachm but that would be up to Texas, and I think KC would require a slightly better arm/player regardless of salary relief. They'd want someone they felt had a better percentage chance to contribute to their re-build. IF...and it's a big if IMO, tne Twins could acquire a quality SP for depth and 2020, a 6 man rotation could be implemented in a couple ways. A] Standard 6 man rotation, but your pen could be a little short. B] Run a standard 5 man rotation, but rotate 2 or 3 guys in and out on a weekly basis with "bullpens" being in a game situation. C] Similar to "B" but rotate piggybacking a game a week with a 5 IP SP and a 4 IP secondary pitcher. All that being said, I would trust the rotation I have, keep my "top prospect list" as you stated and make a quality 2-3 prospect trade from everyone else available for a top RP who is controllable beyond this season. My window is open and I don't want a collection of rentals. Iglesias from the Reds really jumps out at me. If I bet stymied at every turn from crazy demands, Kennedy is my fallback. And I don't mean that to demean Kennedy. I think he could be a steal. Even though I love Thorpe, and think be could play a BP role to finish the year, I'd rather have him start, provide SP depth with Smeltzer, and ride the Rochester shuttle and grab Watson as a rental from the Giants. In the end, I only trade approximately 4 prospects, all outside my top 6, and acquire a top RP with another season, at least, available, and a veteran LHRP to play a role. These 2, and what I have on hand, gives me a much improved pen, and 2 months to audition and play the shuttle game until the playoffs arrive and I have to set my roster. I also have Smeltzer and Thorpe providing depth in various capacities. My pen is much, much better than it was, and is now much deeper with the emergence of some young arms. My milb depth is intact, as is most...if not all...of my top 10 list.

First of all, great post! Really wish this was on the front page. Not piling at anyone, but remember not so long ago when Rosario was just too wild, Polanco couldn't play short, Kepler was only a 4th OF, etc, etc. And without Cruz, the team's lineup averages just under 27yo! That is crazy! Of course, Cruz will be back next season. Personally, I wish/hope the market is slow for Castro and he would come back for another couple years on a reduced deal. Unless hope and fantasy meet, there are no top of the order difference maker SP options available at the moment. Unless you want to gift wrap some crazy package of prospects and vastly overpay. And after that there is nobody available who clearly offers anything better than what the Twins have on hand. And what they have on hand is awfully good. The problems with the pen have been overblown. You don't have the record/season the Twins have with a dumpster fire bullpen. What did you say, if they only played teams with a .500 record or better they would win 88 games? Crazy! And we have some guys who are stepping up and looking like real pen options for the future, but even though some will continue to help, and make the post season roster, it's too late to really count on most of them for now. Think about the tough games against the Yankees this year. Only 6 games, but if we had another couple of arms we could count on, we very likely split, if not win the series. This team has an honest chance in 2019 with a couple solid pen additions. A real and honest chance. And they have the milb depth to make at least one more high quality move. But as good as this team is, as young and talented as it is, the window is not only open, but it could be wide open for another 4-5 years if we can keep the bulk of this roster together. While there are very good prospects lower in the system, there is a very nice collection of arms and position players at Rochester and Pensacola who could/can/have started to contribute. I like our first move. We need another acquisition even better. But I agree that I just wouldn't mortgage anything for 2019 when this team is so good and has so much potential. There are vast differences between doing nothing, making a couple smart moves, and giving up 4-6 top 20/30 prospects to go all in for one season.

And I don't disagree with you in principal or final results. But I was thinking not only roster flexibility, but also inter league and potential WS situations. But I wouldn't trade him for any of the options I had in mind at this point.

Wait, so in addition to math in some posts, we now have science too??? Argghh! Seriously, very neat piece and very informative. I think he was a great addition. Now...one more please.

He wasn't my first choice, I admit, because there were a couple OF available like Brantley and McCutchen that could legitimately play defense for greater roster flexibility. But when signed, I was very happy for potential production as well as experience and leadership/presence. His option for 2020 is NOT an option!

I would be uber focused on another RP and call it a day at this point. I know a lot of people don't want to hear that, but not only is it the biggest need, but the market itself is showing teams are either not selling, or being crazy in their demands. The Mets are just...IDK....the Mets. Despite looking like a dumpster fire losing team they have acquired the first big name viable arm on the market. Are they crazy like a fox with a plan nobody can see, or are they just crazy? We can talk all day long about the Twins rotation. And we can point to successes and failures, highs and lows, etc. (Guys have good and bad streaks. Its a long season)! And I know playoff baseball can be different than the season. But tbe truth is the Twins not only have tbe best rotation they have had in YEARS, but they also have one of the deepest, most productive rotations available. Pitching still wins games. But in this new era, we have also seen where a deep and quality pen can trump a rotation at times. This team needs a stud arm for the pen to go along with Rogers, Romo, and what we have on hand. The Twins still have 2 months to sort through their pen and make final decisions on who and what sticks for the playoffs. At least one SP will slide to the pen that happens. It also happens, later than I wished it would have happened, we have some arms who are starting to look ready.

I have deliberately stayed out of the Syndergard thread because it seemed to take on speculative thread of its own. But something I posted and asked about a couple days ago, and a few others have echoed my initial question, is why the obsession with him? The reality is he only 26, 27 in August I believe, and has an amazing arm that tantalizes, with big SO numbers. Reality also shows he has only hit 180IP once, thus far, with 154IP being his 2nd best season. This year, his ERA, in the NO, is above 4. (I know ERA is questionable as a statistic). It seems to me any trade for him is based on future potential. He could absolutely explode for a 4-6yr run as a top of the rotation stud! (Even though his controllable years are obviously far short of that). He could also continue to miss time and be good when available and never be what is hoped for. I get the infatuation, and I'd love to have him. But is a package of 4 top 20 prospects worth the questionable side? And I think that is what the Twins FO and most teams are asking themselves right now.

Granted this thread is about Kirilloff, but right now, it's almost impossible not to include Lewis in any discussion as they are intertwined in many ways as we approach the deadline. It doesn't matter, for discussion purposes, that we don't WANT to trade either one. For purpose of discussion...NOW, or even next off season...ONE of these guys would have to be included in a major deal for a front of the line SP. Just being realistic, BOTH are available if the right deal is in place. Period. And either would not decimate the system, or the future of the franchise. Again, period. 1] Kiriloff: I believe he is a special bat. He reminds me of Larry Walker and our own Max Kepler, though probably a little less speed than Kepler, especially if he continues to muscle up. Blocked? Hardly! Even if the Twins keep their OF intact for the next 4-5yrs, and I hope they do, there isn't room for Kirilloff to play 1B as well as some OF? I kinda laugh when I read things about how a corner OF or 1B are a dime a dozen. Maybe they are if you just want someone league average. The Twins were both lucky and smart with Cron. However, the arguement can be fairly made they could be smart and lucky again. Further, while I feel Kirilloff could be special, there remains Rooker and Larnach available in the pipeline, as well as an eventual move of Sano to 1B. [More on that coming]. 2] Lewis: This kid is super talented, and probably more highly regard in some ways as he has legitimate SS potential. He has all the tools in the world to be a legitimate difference maker. (I also laugh when a stud athlete at 20yr old is "uncertain" to remain at SS). Polanco has become, is becoming, everything I hoped and thought he would be. And he is still developing! Some, in the past, have blasted me about the idea of Lewis, with all his talent and a good arm, about playing 3B. I've been told that would be a "waste" of his talent. How? How could it EVER be a waste to have a supreme talent at ANY position on the field and in your lineup? However: Polanco, again, is a young and controlled stud who will only get better. We may have already found our next 2B in Arreaz. Despite being a bit of an enigma, Wander has, probably, as much talent and potential as either Polanco or Lewis. And while their are differing opinions on Sano at 3B, (I like him there), there is no immediate need to replace him. So you tell me, because I don't have the answer, which of these 2 are "expendable" if the right deal is available?