DocBauer

If this is factually, they should be writing up the contract even as we all blog here. I actually think this is just about right for his value, which has me slightly confused because I've just felt certain it was going to take a slight overpay at $20M per. Do this, Twins, and let Johnson work with him. Do it now.

Barring trades, of course, it is not out of the question that ALL of these guys are part of the 2021 team and most, if not all, debuting at some point this coming year.

What he has done, not what he might do, I think he's max $18M per IMO. However, that will not win the FA battle for his services. It will take 4yrs and $20M per. I can live with that. I think the first team at 5yrs gets his name on the dotted line.

Agreed. Key point being "at some point". It looks like we have too many guys. But a couple things to consider: 1] Buxton continues to be bit hard by the injury bug. (Hopefully not, obviously) Now we need another OF. 2] Even if Cron is brought back, very good chance he is gone for 2021. This could be Cruz's last year with the Twins. And if Rosario is kept for now, he only has 1 remaining year of arbitration and could be dealt with a younger, less expensive player taking his spot. So we may not be as crowded as it first appears. And if everyone makes it, there us remaining trade value.

Archer is one of the potential trade targets I am most interested in. I wasn't all that interested a season or so ago when he was a hot commodity because I didn't see the results, other than SO numbers and potential. And I know he was playing for a losing team at the time, but I've seen other pitchers just sort of transcend and show their potential. I just never got that "it" factor from him. Maybe I just never looked close enough. The problem I see with Archer is Pirates ownership and FO. Do they think a new pitching coach could unlock his full potential? Will they hold on stubbornly for a huge payload of prospects to save face? Or will they be willing to admit it didn't work out and get a decent haul and move forward? I would love to see what Johnson could do with him. Considering the depth of the system, I'd think a bottom 10 prospect and a couple teen-20 prospects would it. Not junk, just 3 quality prospects from one of the best systems around. Spitballing on a late night, Rooker, Gordon and Boyer. I wouldn't bring him in as my top "get", but as my 4th SP option with still big upside, I'd be in.

Still would like to keep all 8 at the top of the list even though I know that's improbable/impossible. Not sure a couple weeks from the original post has clarified things, but reflection does offer up new perspective. Duran is a clear given. Maybe the only true given. I was wavering on Blenkenhorn for a while until I re-read his 2019 and did my own reflection. Where be "setttles" as a position player may be a moot point. Flat out, he is a talented athlete who offers up a lot of potential. There is no such thing as having too much talent on your roster. I know POTENTIAL is an ugly word at times, but even if he never becomes Sano's replacement, or the next 1B, etc, and even though there are other very talented corner OF in the system, he has real "potential" to be a 5 position player on this team. There is real value in that. Maybe I'm the only one, but I see Raley as a combination of Wade and Cave. A guy who can hit, make some contact, provide power, run the bases a little bit, and play 3 spots, maybe 4. Tne Twins played him a lot in CF last year to see what he could do. Call me crazy, but I think they like him. His strong finish in the AFL also looks good. I am extremely hopeful on Chalmers. He has a way to go. I'm not sure how other teams view his last 3 starts at Ft Myers and his AFL performance. But I know this FO is big on potential, while the previous FO seemed to look more at "polished" players. If that makes sense. Pitching wise, it feels this FO really loves big arms and wants to work with them and take their "shot" at developing them. I think 6 is about right and max. That leaves 2 spots left. Jax is finally getting a chance to play and develop. The SO numbers aren't there, and that is concerning. But look how far he has come with so limited opportunity. Again, this FO loves arm talent and the opportunity to develop it. Sure wish I knew how they view him as he wasn't a draft selection of theirs. They didn't draft Rijo, but they went out and got him. The early results look really good. But he has yet to appear above low A ball. We talk about how deep OF is the system, but I'm not certain how deep CF is. After the OK combination of Cave and Wade, each of whom still offers up some potential as solid backup options, your CF prospects are all in A ball and lower, unless you include Lewis as a potential there. Celestino offers up a ton of potential, and finished the season strong, and was acquired by this FO. But 30 AB at high A? Does that really make him enticing to anyone out there as a stash player? You could make arguments for each of these 3 guys to be protected or not. And really, you wouldn't be wrong. In order of priority, all things considered, I'd say: Jax....close enough you keep based on potential. Rijo...big arm you traded for and want to develop. Celestino....tons of potential but willing to lose with other A players in the system. The elephant in the room, of course, is Javier. No mistake being made, there is NO-ONE who wants to lose him. But reality is, he just isn't ready. Not close. Despite all his talent and potential, could any ML team find reason or room to stash him on their roster for a full season in hopes of what he might become given time to flounder? The smaller elephant is Tyler Wells. I know he had a great season a year ago and won organizational pitcher of the Year. I know there is potential there. But if a team wants to draft a AA pitcher coming off surgery to stash for a whole season, then bless the team and player. I just don't see it. IMO, the rest are guys you expect to not be drafted or returned. Weil is the one guy who could potentially come back to bite you. But again, the depth potential should make you feel really good if that happens.

I also like Marwin at 3B. I think he's a fine player there. But I feel some of his value is lost filling as a fixture at 1 spot vs being the super utility guy he is. And then I think you've shortened up your bench and versatility on the roster. And while I think Sano could transition to 1B solidly, the positions are different, though they bear some similarities. I also believe Sano will continue to improve at 3B. Sano at 3B and Cron/TBD at 1B offers more offensively, IMO. So while I like Marwin at 3B, I remain unconvinced at this point the team is better with him there.

I can get behind this even though I kinda don't like it. He looked so good in that role, I really hate to take him out of it. But in your plan, as young as he is, he might be temporarily squeezed out, especially if we can squeeze in another LHRP just over your budget, that would allow him to be stretched out at Rochester and possibly fill either role when called up. And you're correct you never want to give up on a young pitcher too soon as rotation pieces are hard to find. But then again, if you follow the path of certain teams like the Cardinals, they have transitioned young arms to the pen and back to the rotation again. I guess I'm talking in circles here, lol, but again, I just really like what he showed and his potential. We still have decide what to do with Romero, and we also have Graterol, Thorpe, Smeltzer and Dobnak for SP options. Not to mention Duran, Jax, etc. At some point, have to make room/opportunity for your young arms.

I can buy this all day long, even though I like Wheeler better. Why do I like him better? Younger and better pure velocity for Johnson to work with. I also have some trouble with Boyd in this deal. Not because he is terrible or I dont like him. Johnson might just crank him up a notch! I just dont know if he had his first really good season...or so it appeared to me...and has room to climb, or if he was just having his career year. To trade a couple of guys I have high hopes for to acquire a potential 5th starter when I have some good young arms to look at? I just don't know. I want to KNOW what Johnson and the Twins see/expect from Boyd before I make this move. Not asking a lot am I? Lol

Yep. But Pomeranz threw 28 last season. That's all I'm saying. My $5M would go there instead of Perez.

Some fine points and some thjngs I agree with. Yes to Pineda, Castro, Cron and Romo. All 4 can be replaced, but all 4 are also good players and come at value. Fine with any and all back. No to Schoop, no room and he will look for a starting opportunity. No to Perez. Speculating he could succeed in the pen is way different than any evidence he can. Pomeranz, at least, has SOME proven numbers out of the pen. Time for Gibson to move on. Roster is seemingly done, and he's still sitting there end of January, fine, offer him a cheap 1yr deal to be the 5th starter.

Just being honest, I know nothing about the Marlins. I just don't pay attention to them. So I know pretty much nothing about Alcantara either. But this is the kind of thinking they should be employing. While peripherals may be poor, he showed improvement, is young, controllable and high velocity is always good. Im betting Johnson would love to work with all of that. But there remains real questions here. I'm thinking 1 top 10 guy and 1 in the second 10 and maybe a toss in. Fair? Too high?

Great news, of course. Now work out an extension to keep both parties happy and add another high quality piece to the rotation.

Sorry Mike, you lost me a bit on 2nd last sentence. I was advocating adding more payroll for an additional bat. I like the OP in general, and flexibility for additions, mid season and beyond. But never argued about spending more beyond Jeremy's framework. Are we miscomunitating here about intentions?

But they don't. There is no reason to suddenly add $20-30M at the deadline next year "just because". But now the financial opportunity IS available to make a move. A move that might even be a player signed beyond just a rental. Look, I'm not saying "don't spend, be cheap, it's OK". But actually improving the ballclub while still keeping costs under control for flexibility and future salaries/extensions is a win-win. If the Twins improve, win the Central, advance to and win the World Series, will anyone care what the actual final payroll is? But again, while I really like what Jeremy did here, the payroll should still be a little higher for a bat, regardless if its OF/1B/3B. And you'd still have a lot of flexibility for a mid season acquisition, and to prepare for 2021.

Honestly find this plan to be outstanding in most all regards. The pitching is better overall, the team stays mostly intact, the top prospects remain with the organization for now, and the budget is crazy low at about $120M. IMO, that financial flexibility is not about being cheap, but rather a real opportunity to add in the near future, plus additional arbitration numbers. While the BIG MOVE didn't happen at the deadline last season, it doesn't mean attempts weren't made, or won't be in the future. The FO has been fairly aggressive when it comes to making trades. My ONE problem with this, Jeremy, is the loss of Cron AND Rosario. With the payroll as you have it, Cron needs to be kept. Or add Moose for 3B and move Sano to 1B. But there has be a bat retained/added somewhere.

As a 4th SP option, or maybe as a budget 5th option on a 1yr if the market continues as we've seen the last couple of years. He misses the first month of the season plus, but would you rather have Pineda or Hamels as your #4 SP for 2020 considering the season as a whole?

Probably get a lot of feedback on this, but I'd leave the infield alone for next season. Call me an optimist, but when I look at how young Aareaz, Polanco and Sano are, I simply can't believe we won't see internal improvement. Remember how Sano basically missed most of 2018 and was hurt and overweight but has a cannon and improved his foul ball ability? Remember how athletic Polanco is, has a new, more comfortable throwing motion and missed the first half of 2018? Not to mention put him at SS for "good" after he was bounced around so much. Remember Arraez was still a rookie, but is a smart, heady player with good baseball instincts who actually held his own wherever he was placed? I agree with improving defensively and appreciate good defense. And there are "moving" parts over the next season or two with Gordon and Lewis adding to the mix. Not to mention 1B options. If you really want a short term SS option, why not just stay in house with Adrianza? But what's wrong with also allowing for experience, growth and development from the young core you have on hand?

I love the 26man roster. I don't think limiting the number of pitchers is that big of a deal as those kind of things sort of work themselves out anyway. You still need a balanced roster. I think the September roster number is a joke from everything from auditions to gaining depth for playoff teams to get ready. Not debating the 3 batter minimum rule unto itself, but it does nothing to speed up the game. The guy coming in could simply not have it and suddenly there are runs scored, guys OB for the next RP brought in, and you have accomplished ZERO in speeding up the game. In fact, you could end up lengthening it.

To me, it sort of feels the Reds want to contend, but aren't ready to yet. This idea actually makes sense to me. The fact that Bauer only has one year of control is scary. But then again, it brings his cost down. For a team lacking prospect depth, not sure Blankenhorn as the 3rd piece gets it done, but maybe. I'd rather, somehow, add to the trade value and get at least a 1yr extension from Bauer.

This is my favorite plan thus far. (Much in keeping with my own thoughts). Not only is this a good plan, it is a very, very realistic one! It is sound and doesn't require a ton of moving parts that various trade scenarios offer up. As someone else stated, could be a little high on Wheeler, but all the financial parameters are in place. I think I might prefer a couple more $M and keep Castro at catcher. And I find myself torn on Hammels vs a return of Pineda, even with the suspension. But I'd be awfully happy and optimistic if this turned out to be reality.

There have been various comments made, some real and some perhaps tongue in cheek, about NOT choosing between Bumgarner and Wheeler and signing both. FACT, the Twins have the financial ability to do so, and still retain Odorizzi, without blowing up the rest of the team, or escalating the payroll above $150M. But even if the Twins make quality offers to both, and even if we are a talented team on the rise and both guys are very open about coming on board, it would still be very difficult to do so. And that's a reality we have to accept. Someone could make a crazy offer. Either could choose a matching offer in a place closer to home they prefer. We just don't know how it will play out. I say take your shot for both and see if you can pull it off. But land at least one...and I'm still torn on which one I'd prefer...keep Odorizzi, and then find the best 4th rotation piece you can.

Really like this post! Beyond the current mantra that the game has changed...it has...ERA is a useful measurement tool employed forever in the game. It is not be all or end all, and there are numerous additional measurements available today. But it is still a viable reference at our disposal, IMO. If Odorizzi simply had or learned to better economize his pitches and could be counted on for just a few more outs, his already impressive numbers would be that much better. He is not a 1-2, we know that. But he often pitches like he is for that 5+ IP. He is a valuable arm, more or less on hand, and needs to be retained. I'm happy if he is our #3, ecstatic if he could be our #4.

While I think we can all agree to disagree here and there, the fact is these changes affect every team. If there is any "loser" in these changes, it would be for a team that really likes to play the matchup game in later innings, possibly due to a weaker pen. The one rule change I really hate is the super small roster growth come September. Apparently, MLB is worried about the integrity of the game during the stretch run. As if a poor, 90-100 loss team would provide "worse" competition to a winning team challenging for a post season berth. Really?

If you really look at his career, beyond the numbers posted in the OP, you will a pretty solid first 2 full years in the league. That was followed by a pretty awful 1 1/2. Then, you get another another good/really good 1 1/2 years again, ending with a poor final half for 2019. You basically have 4 really solid years and 2 bad ones. Most of the arguments surrounding his "nibbling" was the bad 1 1/2 seasons and his decline the second half of 2019. Velocity is still there, we've seen it, though the question is can he maintain it? I understand the interest. And for his sake, I hope the reports of therapy working are true. But feeling good now is very different than being able to manage and keep up his strength for an entire season. Not so sure so many teams being "interested" aren't more about kicking tires and doing due diligence. While I have been a supporter of his, I am much more interested in adding a prime SP, re-signing Odorizzi, adding a 4th arm via trade, FA, or re-signing of Pineda, and then a smart flier to compete with the youngsters. I'd be OK if Gibson is sitting there come late January or early February and turns out to be that flier.