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Everything posted by DocBauer
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I agree with you here 100%! Arguing and debating forever and a day about getting out of the Donaldson deal and signing Correa and financials for the future vs 1yr, and all of it is nonsense at this point. We are where we are. And where we are is a good place with a team who could make some real noise! To me, it's very obvious the FO is willing to bring on more payroll now, or some point. While I believe I believe they have worked very hard to establish a deep farm system, they KNOW they are going to have to give up SOMETHING to take the next step. Up and down the line, when you look at what they've done, you are not only surprised, but have to be pleased where we are at. And maybe the Bundy that was just waiting to escape Baltimore, had a good 2020, will find himself as at least a combo of the OK pitcher he was for the Orioles and the great SP he was in 2020. But I'd be willing to bet if you could speak to the Twins FO now...unfair because at the time they and NOBODY could know how things were going to transpire after the lockout the way they have...they would have undoubtedly signed at least one of the quality SP available at the time to augment the Gray trade. The problem is, everything was weird/crazy for the 3rd year in a row. And you can't rewind time. I wish we could. I'm sure the FO would make a quality signing knowing what they know now. What happens next is going to be interesting.
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Already stated my opinion pretty clearly on Cueto, since Pineda is now gone, as the "short term, veteran, experienced, solid, place holder to give you a chance daily until someone better comes along" option. And I stand by that. The Twins, best I can figure, are now somewhere in the $120M-ish payroll range. And even if they sign Cueto, they bump up to $130M-ish. Clearly you don't re-sign Buxton, trade for Gray, sign Correa, and be involved in various rumors because you're DONE and aren't going to try to compete. Now, whether they make a trade in the coming days, OR, make a mid-season move once you prove you are in contention remains to be seen. But I can clearly see how the payroll quickly jumps in to the $140's very easily. It's still a question of who and when. The Twins are DEEP in talent throughout the system, but top-heavy with a few TOP prospects, and not as flush there as some teams. (Partially through prospect graduation). A healthy Duran and Canterino could allow for a mid-season re-listing of top 100 prospects in a hurry! But I digress. The prospect capital is there to make another serious move, with or without a Cueto signing, without decimating the system. But how eager is the FO to move 2 of our top 5, or 3 of our top 10 to bring in another arm has to be considered. There is "going for it", and then there is holding out for a while and seeing what happens once the season starts and actually see what you have. But a few thoughts after all of that: 1] Is Oakland overplaying their hand right now? And if they are re-building, do they really need/want ready/nearly ready players? They received a couple ready/nearly ready players so far in their moves. Would they NOW want some longer term assets? Or a combination of such? And I'm only spit-balling when I say things like Arraez, Wallner, Varland and Sands/Winder/Balazovic. 2] Are we really convinced Cincinnati is done and not actually re-bulding? Petty has HUGE upside and equally HUGE risk being a HS kid. But they did that, mostly, straight up for Gray. Again, our system has some very nice options with big upside to a re-building team who wants as many upside prospects as they can get. 3] Ditto, maybe, for the Orioles and Means? 4] Maybe I'm wrong, but the Marlins have some quality SP to trade off, but it also seems to feel as if they aren't "going for it" right now. Again, I may be wrong, but that's sort of my impression. 5] Maybe the Astos don't want to pay Odorizzi $8M to be their #6 starter. Last I knew, that was the probability. How about Oddo back again on what should be a fairly cheap acquisition, with or without Cueto. He has a history of pitching well with the Twins, and finished 2021 strong. Would you be OK with him back to help head the rotation without blowing up 2-4 of the Twins top 20 list for now? My whole point is, there are more teams than the A's rebuilding. ANY trade for a quality SP is probably going to hurt, at least a little. But if a team is looking for TALENT, and not just someone ready or almost ML ready, there are options such as Severino, Urbina, Rodriguez, Wallner, Varland, Gipson-Long, maybe even recent top draft choices like Sabato or Cavaco that all rank amongst the Twins top 30 prospects. If Petty was on the table to the Reds, then anyone else else drafted the past 2yrs is also available. So we might be surprised as to what team is looking for young talent a couple years from now to deepen their system and opportunity. If we've learned one thing from this FO, never be surprised by being surprised.
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Twins Claim RHP Jhon Romero, Dobnak to 60-Day IL
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Just looked up the 40 man and believe it's current. Maeda and Dobber to the 60 day IL. One more signing with Enlow's spot available still. Anything more than that, someone has to be dropped. O If there is a trade, also have to make room. But I think it's a fairly safe assumption that any trade would include at least 1, if not 2, players currently on the 40 man. Never know, but I doubt there's another Odorizzi like move available that only includes someone/various someone's not yet on the 40. -
Twins Claim RHP Jhon Romero, Dobnak to 60-Day IL
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I am fully aware RP don't usually rank high on prospect lists. I understand he's now 27yo, maybe a late bloomer. I get he doesn't have then ideal frame. But he throws mid-90's with a milb WHIP of just over 1.00 and has averaged a K of 10 per 9 and has a couple options left and was just dumped? Wow. I'm not predicting anything for the guy, but his numbers and options make him seem like someone you'd like to hold on to. Must be something we can't see from the numbers that makes him questionable -
I've always been OK with him or Pineda as an experienced, "short term" veteran to just be solid, give the team a chance, and be replaceable for one of the prospects. I would have preferred Pineda, but not going to complain here. I do think a trade is still very possible, but I'm no longer 100% on it. I'm probably 75-80%. And I think everyone is correct about asking prices. If you believe all the rumors put there, half the league is being linked to Oakland and other potentially available arms. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if the prices are ridiculous right now. Also wouldn't surprise me if the FO just moves on from Oakland and suddenly makes a deal with someone else. Sure wouldn't be the first time they surprised us.
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One Fan's Opinion: Gary Sanchez the Comeback Kid
DocBauer replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
A very well written article and some quality perspectives! Not a big fan or believer in Sanchez. However. Once upon a time he was a top prospect, an All Star and a Silver Slugger. Just 3yrs ago? Seems longer. And I honestly thought he was older than he is. A change of scenery, a fresh start, different voices being heard/interpreted differently CAN sometimes make a difference. I hope in this case he has at least a decent rebound. As I've stated elsewhere, non-horrid defense, a .230 AVG with power and continuing to keep his OB above .300 could at least provide a solid bench option.- 29 replies
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Nope, not worried about DH, and NOT because of Sanchez in any way. A full time DH is only a ONE MAN spot, usually, when you have an Ortiz or Cruz who is a special hitter. When you have a deep and versatile roster, as we potentially do, you need to find room for everyone. And who says your DH spot can only be manned by a power hitter? Until another OF is added, or a prospect grabs the LF spot and makes it his, AK is going to initially play there a bunch, but he will also cover 1B until he can make the move there more permanently. Sano is going to play 1B and DH when not at 1B. Arraez needs to be in the lineup almost daily at the top of the order. He will play 2B, 3B and DH. Whoever he replaces in the field can take the day off, or a half day and DH. Sooner or later, if not immediately, Larnach and Miranda are going to be ready for daily action, in the field or even in the DH mix. They also mean more time at 1B for AK, more time at DH for Sano, etc, as things expand and trickle down. As far as Sanchez at DH on a regular basis? I doubt it for all the options listed above, plus the fact you generally hate to play both your catchers, plus he doesn't hit well enough to be in the lineup daily despite his power. Sanchez, despite defensive limitations, provides experience, power, and an OB above .300, if only barely. Hopefully he will raise that OB to around .320 and raise his AVG up beyond the Mendoza line and around the .225-.230 range. That's enough to make him valuable as the backup catcher, starting around 1/3 of the games. But there are far better options at DH than Sanchez unless he suddenly resembles his previous Silver Slugger self, which seems unlikely at this point. There is no need or good arguement for Sanchez to see primary AB at DH. If he's there a lot, we have some serious issues, or, a serious reward. But I'm not worried at all about DH. I can easily see 10-11 guys that can/should be playing daily.
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REPORT: Twins Sign Veteran RP Joe Smith
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think it's an interesting flier based on past performance. I don't like it for the 40 man. But I suspect his 40 man status changes in the next couple of days, pending another trade. I really, really wanted the Twins to grab Carlos Martinez as a high upside arm coming off a bad year. The Giants pounced. Good for them. I think we blew a chance there. I don't feel the pen needs some $8M plus arm. But I felt there were enough good arms out there they could have made a solid a solid addition better than this to insure a quality back end. And I'd be willing to bet they still will. At least, hoping they will. He screams middle relief to me. Which is good. But I think we really need a viable, potential, 8-9 IP option. But I'm not certain what is left at this point. Uncertain where the payroll is at, and certain a trade for a SP is coming. But have to wonder about Smith passing through waivers to be kept as a flier considering future moves. I'd really like to believe there is someone better on the horizon plus MAYBE a surprise cheap 4th OF to provide some depth and balance. -
Correa Gives Twins a Best in Baseball
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Even with 1yr Correa does so much to enhance the 2022 team's chances, with an additional SP yet to be determined. But the one thing I think is missed here is how he affects 2023 even if he is gone. His presence in 2022, offensively and defensively, allows less pressure on Lewis and Martin to be rushed, whatever their future outcome. It allows for a potential surprise in Palacios to prove he's actually the "potential" SS the Ray's traded for a couple years ago, after his 2021 season and strong winter league. He's in camp. Could he surprise? His top of the order presence allows guys like AK, Larnach and Miranda to feel less pressure for their 1st full ML season. Urshela might also assist here. At worst, he gives the Twins a tremulous lift for2022, but even his abscense in 2023 could still provide dividends for the future.- 21 replies
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Breaking Down the Twins Signing Carlos Correa
DocBauer replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Forgive me, but too much to say! I was asleep when this happened, caught the news in the morning, and even working a short day I am PAGES late to commenting. Therefore, going to concentrate my thoughts here. The first is HUH? WOW!! I never saw this coming even though for a split second yesterday...after reading about other teams "in" on Story...I wondered about a switch to Correa, maybe on a short 1yr deal, but quickly dismissed it as fantasy. The second is, after reading about numerous teams being in on Story, and ZERO positive news for days, I was feeling pretty confused and pessimistic and had previously posted under the "positional catcher report" that I was feeling pretty bummed. I believe my words were "disappointed" and "apathetic" and felt like I was coming down from a high with baseball back and some of the early moves. Apparently I wasn't the only one from "likes" and other poster's comments.. WOW, what a difference a day makes! I have largely been supportive of our FO from day one for everything from drafts, to signings and trades, to the hiring of personnel, to the total revamp of the system and the way of doing things. I've defended them on many occasions, but I'd like to believe I've been fair to also criticize them when I've questioned their decisions/actions at times. Fellow Midwesterners like myself, born and raised, will understand I've always had a love/hate-hate relationship with the month of March. (11yrs in SD, 55yrs in Nebraska where the weather turns on a dime). Invariably, March teases an early Spring only to deceive days later. And EVERY SINGLE YEAR I remind myself to NOT fall for it's ploy. Such is the same for our FO. I know and understand how they work. And again, I have largely applauded their approach, with disagreements I have been clear to state when I felt was necessary. I was enthused after the first 2 trades, and dumbfounded and filled with anxiety after the Yankees deal. I apologize for being so negative previously, especially to myself for not just waiting. I should have known better. Even when the FO seems to be distressingly "over patient" they have almost always made "smart" moves...even if they don't turn out. (Witness Happ, Shoemaker, Colome). But to move on... I applaud getting out of the Donaldson deal. His signing was unexpected, but actually made sense at the time. It also showed this wasn't the older, more traditional Twins way of doing things. Previous FO's wouldn't have taken that shot, and probably wouldn't have made the Maeda and Cruz moves either. They sure as hell wouldn't have played the game of MLB chess that we're seeing right now! Thirdly, if the initial Donaldson signing, a couple of years pushing payroll, various reports from agents as to how professional and generally pro-active the Twins were in arbitration cases, hasn't changed the perception of how this FO operates, THIS signing moves the needle as to how this team operates. They may be frugal, (Not a bad thing considering revenues and market place), they may be calculated and hopefully smart, but they aren't "cheap". (Yes, I am aware of continuing debate on this topic). Fourth, I really wish the opt out was after the 2nd year. But that was never going to happen. But for 2022, at least...things could change...the Twins made a MAJOR move to fill a hole with the top available player at his position. It not only brings enthusiasm to the fans, but also the players. It also allows at least 1yr to re-set the time table for prospects like Lewis, Martin, and even the somewhat forgotten Palacios. I fully expect Lewis to be the SS of the future, barring Martin having a lightbulb turning on. But what if the new-found bat of Palcios is real and his winter league numbers are a sign he's actually going to hit at the ML level with his defense? Fifth consideration, even ONE YEAR of Correa not only makes the team and lineup better, but his presence as a top of the order hitter also brings less pressure for other young players. Not sure that's even been considered by some. Another trade for a SP seems a given, so names could change. But his presence could make the transition for Kiriloff, Larnach and Miranda that much easier for 2022. (Urshela can also help here in a smaller capacity). Final comment: I really, really wish the Twins had made ONE commitment, besides, besides the Bundy flier, to one of the many FA SP that were available before the lockout. The annual value might have be en more than a trade target financial cost, but it would have come without a prospect cost.But we're past that point now. Now it's about ONE MORE SP via trade to make a difference. I don't want to sacrifice the future just for 2022. But the originizational depth is there to make another move. -
Just another filler arm for AAA. Period. Could he suddenly find better bite with his slider and maybe find new life? Maybe. Maybe he finds new life as a bullpen option. It happens. But like Rodriguez, I think he's just depth for AAA. But unless we trade a couple young arms in a move for a quality ML SP or other, it feels like there's already enough talent to fill up the St Paul rotation already. But, there could be a move, guys do get hurt, and depth to just have your AAA team competitive doesn't hurt I guess.
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Ranking the Twins Top-5 Speed Tool Prospects
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Just wanted to add, I've seen just enough of him in hilights and a few ST games that I don't believe range is any kind of issue. I don't believe arm strength is any kind of issue. I can fully appreciate your comments, and others I've read, that being more efficient with his throws is something to work on. I've also read where he just needs to work on general positioning and footwork needed to make the normal plays consistently. I would respond yes to all of this, but aren't these general fundamentals that pretty much every young SS has to work on and develop? I might be an optomist, but I believe the athletic package is there, the arm is there, the work ethic is obviously there as well, and all he really needs is time to play and refine himself. I'm not predicting GG defense...though that would be awesome...but I think he's got everything to become at LEAST a solid ML SS just given a little more time to refine. Would you agree?- 16 replies
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Twins 2022 Position Analysis: Catcher
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I couldn't wait for the lockout to end and for baseball to begin. I was excited by the first couple of moves and thought we were going to get a few things done and put a good team on the field in 2022, while still allowing opportunities for the prospects. Right now I feel disappointed and almost apathetic, like I just came down hard from a sugar/caffeine high.- 34 replies
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What to Expect From New Twins Catcher José Godoy
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Personally, I don't believe Sanchez is going to get a ot of time at DH, barring a HUGE turnaround in his career. I'd be happy as can be if he could just provide experience and simply hit in the .220-.230 range with power as the #2, for about 1/3 of games caught, and probably be done by the end of the season. I think we can easily see better options at DH; Arrzez and Sano jump to mind immediately. And I don't expect a lot from Godoy. I'm hoping his defense is solid. He's only 27yo, bats LH, and while possessing little power, he hit fairly well in milb and his OB was solid. If he's got some defensive chops, he's going to be the 3rd catcher and spend all or most of his season in St Paul, barring injury issues. This isn't how I mapped out a re-tool, but I'm not anxious about a fairly young 3rd catcher with at least some hitting potential. I'm more anxious about what is waiting to be done. -
Gary Sanchez is Not a Miguel Sano Clone
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
While the entire process of this re-tool has me a bit confused, I see a method to the madness. The Twins believe in the Jeffers they drafted, honed, and have seen throughout his milb career, what he showed in 2020, and glimpses he showed in 2021. They believe he is the future. I can't disagree with them. We also have to reign in angst about Sanchez as the Twins didn't go looking to trade for him, they took him back as part of a deal to shed Donaldson and to free up $ for additional moves and flexibility. NOW, they need to figure out how to USE that flexibility and maximize it. I am not a fan of Sanchez. I'm not crazy about him as out backup catcher. But barring injury, he should only catch about 1/3 of games. Despite being questionable behind the plate, he's "been there and done that" and offers experience to impart. He has power. Despite his falling BA the last few years, he's still kept his OB above .300. I'm expecting nothing from him that is substantial. But it isn't inconceivable that a change of scenery, a new opportunity, a new voice of instruction might see him rebound to say a .220-.230 hitter with power. That could make him a decent asset as the #2. I don't buy in to him spending much time at DH as we have other options there that are better hitters. And I do expect him to be gone after this year, if not during the year at some point. -
4 Things to Keep an Eye on at Twins Spring Training
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
#5, how is Arraez moving around and how does he look in the field as well as at the plate after an intense n offseason or work and the reported loss of 11 pounds.- 18 replies
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Twins are moving Jax and Thorpe to the pen
DocBauer replied to wabene's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Makes sense. If Thorpe can make the move and stick, gives the Twins 3 LH in the pen which is pretty awesome. It pushes Moran to St Paul to begin the year and season up a bit. Nothing wrong with that. If his FB can play up a bit more, I like Jax and his slider in a pen role. Interesting move at this point though, to move him without begining the season in the rotation. I know we have a ton of young arms and a couple AAA fillers, but still a little surprised the move was made so soon. Further convinces me the young arms are healthy, the Twins aren't going to hesitate to use them, and they are going to add another rotation piece soon. -
The Twins Have a Yellow Brick Road
DocBauer replied to Nash Walker's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Playing the amateur GM game, this not the way I would have approached the re-tooling of our beloved Twins. But nobody has offered me the job, or sought my advice, lol. So let's look at this yellow brick road idea. I'm not as big a fan or Story as a lot of others. Despite various reports I've read that his bat comes around later on road trips as he becomes acclimated to being away from Coors Field, I'm still worried about his huge career splits. Now, NOT having half his games in the thin air might alow him to further adjust on a regular, daily basis, and he might be just fine. That's the hope, right? Even then, I doubt we'd see the same kind of numbers/production he had in Colorado. Doesn't mean he wouldn't still be a solid hitter with said adjustments, just probably not the producer he was previously. He fits a HUGE need, the $ is there to make it happen, and he'd be the best every day SS the Twins have had since...you pick the player and year. It's been a while. And his signing in no way is an indictment of Lewis's potential or future. The kid needs to PLAY. What's the worst case scenario? A year, year and a half from now the Twins have a great young talent ready and can stick at SS or move around? That's a GREAT problem to have! I hope a Story happens, and I hope it happens soon so we can continue to put this team together. I DON'T like moving both Garver AND Rortvedt at all, even though I like Jeffers and think he will do just fine. I'm not as down on Sanchez as some. While not great defensively, he can offer experience and leadership to Jeffers and the team as a whole. He has undeniable power, and has consistently kept his OB above .300 even with a declining BA. A new start, new opportunity, could his bat rebound? Even hitting in the .220-.230 range with power could provide value. And while the Twins like to rest their catchers, I bet he only starts about a third of the games. But I'd sure like to see someone else brought on board in some capacity for depth. The Twins have a handful of guys who have at least SOME promise, but we're lacking anything close to ready depth at this point. I kinda like Urshela as a depth/insurance piece at 3B and SS with at least a little experience and possibility at 2B and 1B. The glove is at least OK. It appears the bat is at least OK, and he has power. He could provide help, especially if Arraez is moved in a deal. I like getting Gray. Period! The LAST THING I want the FO to do is trade off a slew of top prospects for a short term gain. But between a deal with Oakland, maybe Miami, or even re-visiting another deal with Cincinnati, adding a 2nd quality arm really puts this team in a good place. But again, the last they need to do is mortgage the future for 2022. Some have viewed the Yankees trade as a cost cutting move. Well, yea, it is. But that cost cutting move frees the team to make a Story deal. It allows them to maybe extend whatever pitcher they still add. They might even tack on a quality RH bullpen arm to really set things up there. (Pun slightly intended). And there is additional $ potentially coming off the books in the next year or so for greater flexibility. There is a real method to the madness with the FO I can clearly see. But it might just blow up in their face if they don't make the Story signing a reality. -
Evaluating Josh Donaldson’s Impact on the Twins
DocBauer replied to Melissa Berman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
OK, I've never been a fan of Donaldson's attitude or mouth on occasion. But I love his dedication and love for the game. (And he hasn't necessarily been wrong with some of his accusations). I have LOVED how he embarced being a mentor to the Twins young kids when brought on board. He and Cruz BOTH provided a professional influence, though in different ways. And frankly, forgetting production Donaldson may still provide, I'm a bit worried about team leadership at this point. Donaldson was a fine producer in his Twins uniform and a good leader. But things do change. And if the FO pulls off what they are attempting to do, the change may be for the betterment of the future. I keep thinking how much I dislike the catching depth with Sanchez becoming our #2 option. And maybe that will still change. But IF the Twins stick with him on a 30% playing format, he still offers a veteran influence for Jeffers. He might still get OB and provides some POP. And MAYBE his BA and overall production rises with a new team. But MAYBE his best trait is being a clubhouse presence and an advisor to Jeffers. -
To me, the plan, based on moves and reports is obvious. And I'm sorry I haven't had time to read everything or like or comment. The Twins cleared the books for Story. They would LOVE 4yrs, but they are smart enough to know it's not going to happen. So they are looking at him playing SS...reports had Story turning down an offer to change positions...and sign him for 5yrs at $20-22ish per and front load the contract to absorb cost while they can afford to do so. And they CAN afford to do so, even if the cost is "slightly" higher. Next, they are talking to the A's about a trade for Montas or Manaea. (You might substitute the Marlins in here for one of their pitchers). Such a trade will hurt, at least a little, but what they want/need is TBD. I could easily see Arraez, maybe Urshela as a short term option, and Larnach or Wallner, and at least one of the Twins best young arms. Considering the Bassit trade, Duran is clearly in play here. As might be a number of our top pitching prospects. But they also might be wanting to dump a contract as they have a few guys they may want to move on from. And the good news is the Twins have the finances to do so in 2022 and 2023, potentially. So an A's trade might hurt, but the hurt may be mitigated a bit by prospects vs taking on salary for the A's. So it could end up being a 1 for 3 or 2 for 3 vs a 1 for 4. That works in the Twins favor. The point is, despite "hurt", said hurt might not decimate the system while bringing in another top arm. Still worried about a better option besides Sanchez at catcher, and want to use $ for a quality BP arm to make this staff really work, but I absolutely see what the FO is doing. Hope like hell they make it work.
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Assessing the Twins Petty-for-Gray Trade
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I like Gray and adding him absolutely makes the team immediately better. And while it stinks to move someone as tantalizing and with such a high ceiling as Petty, history is pretty harsh on HS arms, even 1st rounders. On the surface, this is a good move. My only issue is: 1] There were a handful of arms at least comparable in FA to be had for money only...albeit at a higher yearly than Gray...and no prospects had to be traded. 2] I wish they had done #1 and still made this trade. I'm sure they aren't done yet. The question is another trade or a FA? If they weren't going to drop $18-20M on anyone, I sure wish they had moved fast and hard on Kikuchi right after the lockout's end. Not yet 30yo, good velocity and stuff to work with, I think he might be a steal in 2022. Looks like Pineda is the best remaining FA. Still seems like a natural fit. Another trade would cost more, but would probably provide a higher return as well. I like the Gray trade and think it was smart. I just think it could have been part of something bigger. Much like signing a SS and either keeping Garver or using him as part of a different deal for pitching. Fine moves. It's just the amateur GM in me feels an opportunity for BIGGER may have slipped by.- 26 replies
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Assessing the Twins Garver for Kiner-Falefa Trade
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
So I read the news early this Saturday morning and worked all day, then ran errands, read every single opinion on TD to the time when I'm posting now, did a little research on career numbers, and even listened to Tom's video post/opinion before I began to voice my thoughts/opinion. All of this to be dispassionate about my opinion and attempt to look at things from a practical and logical approach. I wanted to be fair after my early morning surprise. My opinion after much time and contemplation: I don't like this trade. In the interest of total "fairness", I feel it's important to look at the pro's and con's involved, from Falvey's statement, to the opinions shared by all the posters, to my own thoughts. CONS: 1] We can debate all we want to about Garver's defense, but overall, receiving, game calling, framing, throwing, it was at least solid if not pretty good. Fair? His offense has been above or well above average since his ML debut with the exception of 2020 when he basically played hurt the whole year and tried to gut things out. He doesn't ever have to reproduce 2019 numbers again to be one of the best offensive catchers in all of MLB. Yes, he's had a concussion and a couple of injuries. His serious injury in 2021 was completely freakish in nature, and he STILL came back to play and pound and produce at the plate. He's not old at a little over 31yo and has been on a "time share" behind the dish with an approach the Twins like and I applaud. So limited number of games played is GREATLY skewed by this. I was looking forward to having no fixture at DH and allowing him to get a little time there on a share basis to keep his bat in play. He wouldn't have brought a quality ML SP on his own, but could have been part of a 2 for 1, or similar, that might have. 2] SS was a gaping hole! And the Twins needed a 1-2yr fix/option at least. Saying the talented and athletic Martin has ZERO chance to play SS in the long run might be accurate. Probably is. But to not allow him to try and a light bulb turning on after ONE professional season is wrong. (Even if it turns out he can only be a fill-in at the spot). Further, despite time missed, Lewis is just as talented an athlete, probably more so, and still just might be THE GUY once he gets back to playing again. With Galvis removing himself from the discussion with a surprising move to Asia to play, there was a chance the respected/proven Iglesias might rebound in 2022. Villar could maybe handle the spot for a year and at least provide an offensive upgrade. For that matter, Simmons is still a high quality defender who has a higher career OPS then IKF despite his awful 2021. Any kind of rebound to his career norm would make him a viable and quality short term option. And on the trade front, do the Cardinals really want to spend several $M for DeJong as a utility/fallback option? I thought he could be grabbed for a couple decent prospects from St Louis. 3] Catching depth is now removed from the Twins system as there are a handful of "interesting" prospects who could advance in 2022, but Jeffers and the probably "not quite ready" Rortvedt are now in the spotlight and I have no clue where the depth comes from. PROS: 1] Garver HAS had a concussion and some other injuries, though the 2021 groin injury/surgery MIGHT be dismissed based on it's freakish nature. And while his workload has been carefully monitored by the Twins' , he has yet to be a 60-70% full time catcher. While I believe he's a young 31yo backstop, I can see other teams questioning injury and age as to his future behind the dish. And I do agree that his trade value may be higher now than a year from now. (I'm looking at THIS trade at the moment, and not part of a different package, to be clear). 2] I dismiss the idea of catcher splits in regard to offensive numbers in regard to 2021 Garver/Jeffers. I tend to dismiss in general because I haven't seen many teams over the years who have a "perfect" split of RH/LH. I just think Jeffers got off to a bad start in 2021. And I sorta expected that as he was young and needed to make some adjustments as pitchers adjusted to him. But drafted as an offense first catcher, he has developed nicely as a defensive backstop, probably better than Garver. He hit in college, hit in milb, has flashed at the ML level, he's younger, he's better defensively overall...now he gets the reps to be part of the future. He may never be the pure hitter Garver was, but could come close. And with even better defense, might be the better player. Rortvedt, IMO, is not yet ready, despite his defense and "Gung ho" attitude. I don't know if there is ANYONE available right now on the FA market or really cheap trade, to bring in as a short term backup, but I'm hoping there is. And that's not a knock on Rortvedt. If you look at his history, he's made improvements yearly. I love the kid. But just a little more time to develop could give the Twins a great 1-2 punch as early as this year. I'd still like another veteran involved because I'm worried about AAA depth at this point. But it's now time for a couple talented prospects to get their time to establish themselves. And the potential is pretty damn good. 3] I was surprised to find out Kiner-Falefa is actually relatively new to being a SS after being converted from catcher. (Never heard of that move before). Now, that conversion took place a few years ago, but I find it interesting. He's spent time at 2B and 3B, as well as SS but he looks like a true defensive SS. He's at best an OK offensive SS, and he has some speed which I value and like, but his 20SB is a career high. But speed on the bases, with an OK bat, and quality defense is nothing to dismiss. Just ready to turn 27yo, there is some upside in his game offensively and defensively. Not expensive, there is the "option" to keep him in some capacity, especially if he improves, vs just being a temporary option. But he DOES fill a need at SS for now. I actually love that he's athletic enough and versatile enough to even cover catcher. NOT that he was brought on for that. But it's interesting. Henriquez is also part of the trade. Not overly excited here, but I see value. We all know milb always has weight, if not height, incorrect based on original draft/signing numbers. Despite looking a bit lanky on video I've seen, I bet he's more in the 175-185lbs range these days. If he can whip it to the reported velocity with 2 pitches and a questionable 3rd, he could be a SP candidate, but he screams high velocity middle IP BP candidate. And that's OK. SUMMARY: This trade is not COMPLETE B.S. There is value here and some potential. I still don't like this trade. I think we sold wrong, not low, but wrong.- 57 replies
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DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
YES!!! -
I think the OP is pretty spot on. And I like and agree with so many comments here. But I think there's a lot to discuss and I'm going to attempt to bullet point here; 1] Back in the day, I always hated only 2 divisions in each league. No matter how good you were, if you finished 2nd your season was done. Never made sense to me. I think 3 divisions in each league took WAY TOO LONG to happen, but it finally did, with a WC. I think baseball was better for it. I've never had a problem with 2 WC teams, but I've always felt the 1 game "coin flip" to advance was ridiculous. It should have always been a 3 game "play in" format. I am just fine with 12 teams, if you can actually make it work without similar "coin flip" games...but I will adjust I guess...and not prolong thr season well in to November. But I really hate a 14 team format! At that point, it's mediocrity vs money ONLY and everything becomes watered down. ESPECIALLY with this BIZARRE idea of a 1-0 nothing series lead on the books. Do we really want baseball to follow the NBA and NFL format of allowing .500 and below teams in, on occasion? Especially when the 162G marathon is supposed to mean something? Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face! And the "ghost win" is so abhorantly ridiculous I can't even laugh! Just play a 3 game series or continue with the 1 game "coin flip" that I hate. At least it would be decided on the field. 2] Regarding sustainability, that doesn't mean, and has never meant, the Twins would be in contention EVERY season. NOBODY can guarantee that EVERY season. It's about being a good, solid team with a chance to win and be relevant MOST years. (Same with any sport). Over the past 5 years the Twins won, went to the playoffs, lost, and then won 101 and 36 games, (prorated was about 96G), and were in the playoffs and then had a weird, bizarre, who could predict 2021. THREE winning seasons out of five and in the playoffs. And no matter how much we want to look back on 2021 with revisionist eyes and opinions, or languish about how things didn't turn out and this and that happened...2021 just HAPPENED. Even the pundits felt the Twins would win, and fight the Dirty Sox for the Central crown. Crap happens, and it happened in Biff Tannen horse crap way. But 3 of 5 years, to me, is a mark of sustainability, even with unexpected disaster in 2021. 3] When crap happens like it did in 2021...and I include an implosion of prospects, mostly pitching being affected by a variety of 2020 factors, and the Twins weren't the only team affected...sometimes a team needs a re-set. It's unfortunate, and sucks, but it's reality. The Maeda injury only magnifies the issue. I am NOT a fan of punting on 2022, especially with the talent on hand, and an expanded playoff format. And while a fan of our FO, I am NOT a fan of ignoring the opportunity to add pre-lockout that seemed so obvious to me. Add while still providing opportunity during the season just made so much sense! I would be stunned if the FO traded more than 2 players off the 40 man as well as 2-4 prospects from the top 15-20 list to add pitching. I DO believe that they had some trade options they liked but couldn't pull the trigger due to the lockout. I NEVER saw the Oddo trade, or the Maeda trade, or the Donaldson signing. I was even pleasantly surprised by the Cruz signing. So I really have no clue what our FO is looking at once the lockout is done. Could they make a Story or Rodon signing? Maybe. Could they trade from ML and milb depth to aquire a quality pitcher? Absolutely and maybe. Could they bring back Pineda and someone like Kikuchi to flesh out their roation with a veteran and an "upside not yet realized" addition? Yes. Maybe Odorizzi comes back cheap but as a good fit. Again, not exactly happy how things happened, or didnt happen, pre-lockout. And no matter what happens, i think having room for young pitchers being allowed to progress and audition is important. And i think that is ultimately part of the 2022 plan. But I dont feel the FO is done with moves once the lockout is done. ..
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I like the rule 5 because it allows an opportunity for some younger players that may be blocked in an organization a chance to make it. The reality is most of the time those players selected are returned, kept but never turn out, and a precious few turn out to be viable role players or quality regulars. But it at least affords them a chance. If you're a losing/rebuilding team, you probably lose nothing. If you're a winning team, you run the risk of maybe losing a decent/good ballplayer. But if your a good team, what you lose can normally be absorbed. I hope the very best for Badoo as well as Wells, who the Orioles picked up and kept. But they, especially Badoo at this point, are the exception rather than the rule. (Same with Santana all those years ago). In retrospect, maybe the Twins should have protected both. But with only 40 spots to fill and a belief the team was poised for another playoff run, they elected to keep some additional arms that might come in handy during the season. Not sure you can fault them for that. And we have to remember that Badoo hadn't played above A ball and had missed some time due to injury, not to mention missing all of 2020. Same with Wells. I know I was surprised they were selected and thought there was a very good chance each would be offered back, just not ready yet. I do think dismissing the rule 5 for this year does make sense. Hell, we don't even know when we'll have baseball at this point, and it's going to be awfully hard for anyone to be selected, jump in to ST, and then have any legitimate chance to stick. Further, the guys elgible are already in milb ST with their teams. How do you just suddenly ask them to pack up and move, especially IF the labor unrest isn't settled until these guys are actually playing games? I say table the rule 5 for this year.

