DocBauer

I see your point but will also have to disagree. There are a couple major points the NBA AND the NFL have over baseball. (Though popularity and viewership has been declining somewhat recently). Revenue sharing in these sports, particularly the NFL, are much more balanced than they are in MLB. That creates a more solid floor and ceiling for each franchise. And it becomes even more important for each franchise to draft and sign smartly and just run said franchise better. I refuse to take sides in MLB labor situations because I think both sides need to "smarten up" to understand the future health of the sport. If profit sharing was more equal in MLB, a salary cap actual works, because you then also have a concrete floor that all teams have to maintain. Today, forgetting covid adjustments, just think of a $200M payroll cap but a $75M floor. There might be fewer 5-7yr deals for $25-35M per, but like the NBA...who's roster size is closer to MLB...minimum contracts would be closer to $1M plus. Shorter FA regulations, which I would endorse with a new system, means players reaching FA status earlier. They might not get the HUGE contracts we talk about, but they would also gain at least as much $ in the long term by signing smaller contracts in their 20's vs the current arbitration years, etc. Both sides need to be smart enough to realize change takes place. I DO place some onus on the MLB union. What's more important? A small collection of players making BIG $, or EVERYONE seeing a rise in their potential $ earnings? I personally feel the union is absolutely focused on a power play for top earners vs a more balanced system and earnings for everyone.

IMO his only downfall is his previous late season swoons. He rebounded in late 2019, as recall, because he backed off his routine to bring about more late season endurance. We never got to see those results in the short 2020 season. I think he's vital going forward for the Twins, even if he never develops in to a #1. Everyone else would love to have him.

Oops. Lol

I like this grouping better than the first. We often talk and speculate and disagree and chew leather about Twins prosoects that haven't turned out to be the studs we hoped they would be. Why? Because we want each and everyone of them to be the next 22-23yo future HOF players to lift the franchise to another level after years of disappointment and frustration. But when you look hard at the roster, do you realize that after 2 highly productive seasons Polanco, Sano, Kepler, Berrios and Buxton are still all around 27yo? Just entering their prime years. Sano was fine at 1B. In fact, except for being overly aggressive chasing pop ups and foul balls and panacaking some of his teammates, I think he was damn good at 1B for his 1st year. Offensively, what can I say? We all know what he can do. You want to blow him off after 2019 and the short season of 2020? You won't get a big return, but you'd find a lot of teams that would love to buy his potential on the cheap if the Twins were stupid. Duffey has the stuff and mentality to be part of this organization for a while. Balazovic and Duran are going NOWHERE unless the FO feels they have an equal plus type of deal. They "inherited" Balazovic and traded for Duran. You don't think they are smart enough to see the potential for these two? Neither is going anywhere unless it brings a cost controlled SP. Arraez is a BASEBALL PLAYER, damnit, were I to quote Kelly or Gardenhire. What's wrong with that? I've watched him for 2yrs now at the plate and in the field. I really don't want to see him in the OF again, but seen nothing in the INF that tells me he can't be at least average. Playing on 1 1/2 legs to finish 2020 he HIT and produced. And he brings a hit and contact and OB approach this team needs. Hell, I might even rate him higher than this if I knew 100% his knee was ready to go. (Same with Polanoc). I think he's a healthy and important fixture.

In my roughly 50 years of watching baseball I've seen teen flashes burn out and some turn out to be HOF players. And I've seen a TON of guys who didn't reach the majors or reach their potential until 25-27yo. Cruz, IIRC, didn't hit any stride at the ML level until he was about 27. Now, by no means am I saying Rooker has some amazing career in front of him. But he also shouldn't be penalized as some sort of nobody simply because he was an older draft choice who has raked at every level and looked "ready" when he got his first shot last year. So I get his being on this list 100%. While I refuse to commit to projection at this point, I could easily see him as a RH Randy Bush for 4-5yrs of team control. And if that is all he is, that's still pretty damn good and valuable. And he might be even better considering his power.

Having a 40 man crunch really stinks, but it's a nice problem to have to deal with. At some point, someone has to be removed, no question. It seems to me Waddell and Gibaut are the most likely candidates as signings would be direct replacements for them. They might slip through and kept as AAA options with an invite. IMO, the FO is willing to make a trade if it presents itself. But, IMO, said trade would involve players, most likely, not yet in the 40 man such as Larnach, Enlow and a few others. We hear rumors lately of a payroll around the proposed $125M mark with some flexibility. There are rumors the Twins are potential buyers. Because of this, and Pohlad stating 2020 stands by itself and the team is not looking to recoup lost revenue, and the fact a wide open window exists that I personally speculate they may yet creep payroll closer to the $135M due to opportunity for competition sake as well as bargains available. But we just don't know. In an ideal situation, the Twins would bring as many as 7 new or familiar names on board. They need a bat, possibly Cruz, a pair of 10th/11th man utility types, a quality SP and one more reliable BP arm. Ideally, they would bring in an additional BP arm and possible 5th SP on the cheap. But can they possibly accomplish all of that on a $130M-ish budget? Maybe. Forgetting an extra spot or two on the 40 man for a moment, they would have about $42M to accomplish all of this. Let's just say that the slow market is very real and there won't be a sudden explosion of signings for $ that weren't originally expected. That still leaves a thought process like: Cruz for $13M Oddo or Tanaka for $12M, OR, Walker, Kluber, etc, for around $10M. Hernandez as 10th man for $5-6M. BP arm for $5-6M 2nd utility player for $1-3M, and there are a TON of options. 2nd decdnt BP arm for $2-3M 5th SP option for $2-4M Anyway you slice it, that's a lot to add against a $130M payroll and about $40-42M left to spend. There just isn't a lot of fluff on the 40 man to trade. With the future of the franchise and the sustainability factor, moving Kirilloff or Duran or Balazovic doesn't make sense to me unless it's a really good deal. How much trade value does Rooker or Colina have vs their potential to help and be viable pieces over the next few years? Glad I'm not in charge. If I were, the Twins would be sitting about $140M next season and the only question would be lopping off a final spot or two on the 40 man.

I agree it's hard to project anything for 2021 based on 2020 for all the reasons we already know. I can completely understand upticks for both Polanco and Arraez as long as they are healthy. Clearly, they are betting on that. I see no reason why Maeda couldn't slide a bit. Same with Pineda, but only to a small degree for both. Rocco does a great job of handling his starters, some would say he babies or under-utilizes them. And I get it. But I do appreciate his not insisting on overworking them and trying to get 200IP from everyone. With moderate rest, I see no reason Maeda and Pineda can't and won't be better than the listed projections. Dobnak is interesting. Never expected him to be as good as his first 50 or so IP looked like, but after 75 IP we've seen a guy barely past rookie status who has largely performed well and shown some potential. If 2020 had been a full season, I have to wonder if he would have been an integral part of the 2nd half of the year after his demotion following a couple rough outings. So I can absolutely understand some optimism for a young back end starter who has flashed a bit.

I can't disagree with your top 3 Cody. But I'm surprised you were able to keep it at just 3! Cruz is obviously not listed because he's a FA. Buuut...since he WAS brought up...he could be a key for several dominos to fall. He will not be disrespected by the Twins, but I do feel he will be back at around $13M to a max of $15. I lean to the $13M mark due to age, expectation, and limited number of teams who would have actual need and interest even if the DH was made universal. There just won't be 29 other teams chomping at the bit. But I digress. 3] I am a huge believer in Berrios, even if he never finds that extra gear of consistency. He is a gamer, a performer, and at worst a legitimate #2 most days. I fully believe there is another level of consistency available in him, even if he never fully reaches that #1 SP level. I'm still hoping for an extension. 2] I don't care if it's Pilates, yoga, or some other new form of stretching/conditioning approach, finding SOMETHING to let his calves stay healthy is very important. The guy is a stud in the field and at the plate and seems to bring a fire and energy to the team as well as experience and a leadership voice. 1] At some point supreme ability, hard work, experience and just a bit of good karma has to give Buxton a bit of a break doesn't it? I keep forgetting at times he just turned 27! He's built up his body. He's learned not to beat up that body in the field. He's absolutely flashed how good he is/can be when in the lineup. And he's really just entering his prime years physically now. 2020 was so weird in so many ways. The Twins remained one of the top teams last year and can easily be again. And while there is no room and gloom meant to be presented here, I think a second 3 could be easily presented. 6] Polanco: We know how good his offense is, and the defense is OK. Can he get himself fully healthy again? Even IF the Twins bring a SS on board this off-season, it doesn't diminish his potential as an everyday 10th man option. 5] Kepler: He really broke out in 2019 and STILL it appeared he had another level he might hit. 2020 was weird for a lot of players not on the Twins. So can he rebound and be the 2019 version of himself, even without further improvement? Because the 2019 version was outstanding. Personally, I think it's time he slides down in the order. 4] Sano: We have seen glimpses of what he can do. No, that's not entirely fair. Healthy and better conditioned and what appears to be an even better, more mature attitude, I think we've seen great stretches of what he can do. Based on 2019 and his full acceptance to 1B in 2020, I have to wonder if he is yet another "victim" of a weird season. With or without Cruz on board, can he put 2020 behind him and continue to grow as a ballplayer? Again, not being negative. Only pointing out how good this team is, but all the potential to be even better for 2021 and beyond.

I look forward to listening, as I always do, to learn more about these prosoects and who they are. Just a wonderful endeavor of yours, Seth, and much appreciated. But I admit to being a bit confused when the opening line stated Valimont was being interviewed. Guessing the copy and paste didn't get corrected? Lol

Rosenthal is also my first choice due to velocity, K numbers and being a few years younger too, I believe. I'd like to think he would come in between $5-6M. But I would be fine with Colome on a 1yr. SO are not everything, no matter how nice they are. Ground balls, pop ups, weak fly balls also work. And for him, it's been working for a while now. Just get a good arm and then re-sign Clippard. I wouldn't be opposed to Bradley or Yates either for a little less.

Absolutely the type of flier that should be brought in to compete for the 5th rotation spot. I believe there's going to be more than a few options available late that could be as little as a couple $M in addition to a few potential milb signings/ invites like this. Here's hoping when the dust settles there's a little bit left over to bring a couple of those guys in.

Ted, outstanding piece! Agree 100%! I am not a successful businessman, much less a billionaire, lol. But it seems to me that a successful businessman knows when to invest in the market or his company even when the economy may be down, buying stocks or investing in expansion, etc, playing the long game. The Twins are in that arena right now. The FO preaches competitive sustainability. And analytics, new approaches to development, smart drafts and trades, this team is in a wide open window right now and a window that doesn't have to close anytime soon unless they get silly or stupid with moves. I don't see that happening. Our FO reminds me a lot of another Midwestern franchise in the Cardinals. They just do about everything right. They seldom have a "tank" season and are almost always in the mix and occasionally make a big move to further their opportunity. And by no means do I think our FO is going to copy them. What I see is a FO that is very smart and progressive in so many ways and borrowing from experience from various archetypes to build a foundation. The structure is in place. Now it may take another year or two to see some of the fruits of their labor to see the results despite a couple recent outstanding seasons. And even though we have a top 5-10 farm system in place, not quite as good as the Padres system, do we want to follow their plan exactly? IMO, our current roster and prospect depth is pretty damn nice. And with a FA pool that is so deep, why would we follow the Padres example exactly? In other words, why not keep what we have for NOW and use $ available to complete the roster? Agents...yes agents...have spoken out loud as to how well the Twins handled 2020 and arbitration. They have spoken that they believe the Twins are buyers. Jim Pohland has stated the Twins are not looking to recoup 2020 "loses". Where there is enough smoke, I figure there is a fire brewing. Unless bargains fall in their lap, I think the idea of a $125M payroll may be an illusion. I am thinking the FO will hold on to their milb talent for the future and ownership will keep the 2021 payroll around the $135-ish mark of last year. With that number, give or take a couple $M, they can keep Cruz, sign one of the top 3 SS, add a quality SP, add another RP, another INF and maybe have a $M or 2 left over for a 5th SP option. The Twins don't HAVE to trade anyone to complete their roster. They can keep what they have, make a couple additions, and keep payroll around the $135-138M mark and still be one of the best teams in MLB. Follow the Padres? Yes in regards to being aggressive and taking advantage of the market and opportunity. No in trading half of your system top 20 when you have $ to spend on various 1yr and 2yr deals.

I appreciate your idea, Cooper, and your intent. But as you stated, and as Rocco has stated, there is no plan at this time for a traditional closer. But I do think your idea has real merit in that Rogers, Duffey and someone I believe not yet signed yet could end up being the true "firemen" with someone like Robles finishing off or "closing" the game with a sufficient lead. And ideally, there would be a lot of games where the offense would provide that kind of cushion. But it doesn't always work out that way, of course. For those who long for a Hendricks or Hand signing, while it could happen I believe, it doesn't mean they would be brought on board as a definitive closer either. They would be a high leverage arm but that doesn't mean a traditional 9th inning spot. Baseball evolved in to having closers but seems to be evolving again in to matchups. The 8th and even the 7th innings can be higher stress than the 9th depending on the score and the other team's lineup. I absolutely will not disparage Hand, Hendricks or anyone similar. So please understand that. But we have seen a number of 30yo plus RP arms signed to multi year contracts that suddenly turn volatile. Reed, signed a couple years ago, is a slightly lower grade example. Are the Twins potentially better off with Rosenthal, a bounce back candidate in Yates or the even younger Bradley for somewhere around $5-6M? If so, then you probably have room to bring in one additional arm like maybe Clippard for $2.5-3M to deepen the pen even further. I hated to lose May, but if you give me FA TBD along with Rogers, Duffey, Robles, Alcala, Clippard, Stashak and Thielbar with depth options I'm very optimistic regardless of who "closes" and when.

I'm OK with this moves and not exactly surprised. He's relatively young with velocity and seems a perfect candidate for Johnson to work with. But I am surprised by the contract. I firmly believed Soria and Clippard would be targets...and may yet be...that would cost a minimum of $2M and would probably be in the $2.5 to $3M range based on age and the market saturation.

I think we're all interested in Tanaka but just expect he will still re-sign with the Yankees. If not, would he want to be in the Midwest? I still think the best replacement for Odorizzi is Odorizzi. I am interested in Walker and Richards, both of whom appear healthy at this time. Kluber, healthy, at 85-90% of his old self would be very interesting. But is he, can he be that? Why does the answer seem so obvious to me?

MLTreaderumors has always been pretty smart when it comes to potential contracts. With the market being ice cold at this point, and so many questions are payrolls and number or games and even the start of the season, I think their projected numbers are high. They have Semien at 1yr and $15M. I'm thinking $13M might be max. And I could go for that. I'm throwing out his 2020 offense, as I would for a lot of players. And he may indeed not be the bat he was in 2019. But good defense and the player he was 2015-2018 would still be pretty good. I don't know anyone has to be written in ink as the "utility" guy per se as there would be a ton of flexibility. What would very intriguing to me, is there a number of solid, versatile infielders out there that could be signed for $2-3M such as Cabrera, Frazier, Miller, etc. This could make the infield outstanding for 2021. IF some of the rumors are true that the FO and ownership are treating 2020 as an outlier and may be considering keeping payroll close to 2020 level, then you might still have Cruz for about $13M, a SP for $8-12M, room for 2-3 solid BP arms for $8-11M, and keep payroll in the $135M range. Yes, a lot of speculation. But speculation that isn't unwarranted, IMO. Adding Semien shouldn't handcuff them from other moves and could really solidify the infield.

I think this is a very smart OP and full of value. I enjoyed the perspective very much. And I think you brought to light a very smart approach to how this off season will ultimately play out. The #1 issue is, of course, nobody has a bead yet exactly where payroll will end up. A 10% cut to roughly $125M or believing speculation the Twins may be kinda/sorta "all in" and keep payroll in the $135-138M payroll they began 2020 in with a team in a competitive window? And we all know that budget and a potential Cruz signing might be the initial talking/sticking points. But without going crazy or trying to speculate actual $ numbers which are virtually impossible at this point, I think we can make a few educated guesses. 1] I see Clippard back and Soria brought on board for a combined $4-6M. Despite having some nice arms on hand, these 2, prospects, and a group of milb FA that might produce a surprise, I could see a Bradley or Yates for $5M also being added. That means 3 competent arms added for about $10M total. Quite the steal! IF payroll allows, yes, you could drop another $2M for Hand, Henricks or Rosenthal. I just don't think that's the direction the FO is looking. But they also understand value. 2] The rotation needs a 4th option and there are many available even if you dismiss Bauer and even Tanaka. (Not sure I'd totally rule out Tanaka). Between Oddo, Richards, Walker, Wood, etc, there is a collection of very solid SP options who could combine with Pineda to give the Twins a VERY nice #3-4 combination for $8-13M depending on not only the market but 1yr vs 2-3yrs. And I just can't shake the idea of Kluber on some sort of deal as well. The depth of the FA market could easily see a 5th option brought in to camp on a cheap 1yr deal for a couple $M to an invite with incentives to compete with Dobnak and prospects. But I don't see a Bauer signing in any way. POTENTIALLY, the Twins could add a quality 4th SP and maybe a cheap flier for $10-15M tops. How often can you do that? 3] The Twins need/want a 10th man. Hernandez would be nice, even though I prefer Profar. (Too much OF depth for the 10th man to HAVE to be a viable OF option). But no way do I pay more than $6M for anyone. There are just too many options out there to overspend. The Twins sign a SS and move Polanco to the 10th man role? Great. You then have a list of at least a half dozen guys from Frazier, Gyorko, Miller and Cabrerra and others for a couple $M to be a quality 11th man. Or you can be super cheap and re-sign a solid Adrianza or similar but why pinch pennies at that point? Want to keep Polanco at SS? Sign Hernandez, already rumored, and then spend another couple of $M for any of the names I just listed as your 11th man. 4] I think they are more than comfortable at catcher. But I also believe they are smart enough to jump on something like a $1M+ deal for a veteran option for depth just to cover themselves if they have a little extra sitting around. SHORT? The Twins will sign 2 viable, proven BP arms but not go crazy, and they don't have to in this market. A very good bet they will extend $ for 5-7M for what will prove to be a steal. They will sign a SP for $8-10M from a collective group with a possibility of $12-13M. They will NOT sign any DH unless it be Cruz, but they will sign a veteran bat such as Brantley or Schwarber who can actually play in the field but for no more than 2yrs. I am not opposed to trades, but I would rather keep what we have and be smart and take advantage of the current market within reason. And for the most part, I think that is the direction the FO will take. Potentially, it gives them ammunition for 2021 and beyond.

Not saying i am sold on a trade with the Reds as speculated here...for the record I prefer the FA route at this time and hold on to prospects until we get another half season to full season of further development and evaluation...but there is real merit to a move here. Nothing wrong with a move for Gray from a team looking to shed payroll and pick up a couple of prospects. And the cost shouldn't be all that high. But I do see the idea of a younger Castillo, with additional potential and better $ control along with Castellanos, as maybe being the better option. Now, said trade is going to cost a pair of top 15-20 prospects and at least a throw-in, whether that be a lower prospect or someone like Cave, who could be a nice temporary option for the Reds. Castellanos is NOT Cruz. But honestly, we aren't 100% sure which version of Cruz we might get in 2021. And if looks like we can't come to terms, Castellanos is an OF/DH with a decent bat and good power as a "replacement" for about the same $ cost per year. In fact, IF the Reds truly are in "savings" mode, taking on Castellanos might lower the package from someone like Duran or Balazovic being included to someone like Enlow or Cantarino instead. (Not that they are poor prospects). Not my preferred way to go, but I see match and merit here potentially.

Fantastic. Just fantastic.

Rumors, rumors, rumors. The Twins will be buyers. The Twins are "in" on a lot of good FA. The Twins MIGHT be in line for a major trade. Plus, ownership has stated they are not looking to recoup any losses from 2020. What does it mean when you add it all up? Who knows? Covid, financial losses, still no clue for 2021 in regard to a start time, how many games, how many fans, etc. No wonder the MLB world is so quiet. But I do believe in the old adage of "where there's smoke there is fire". I have little belief the Twins will be involved in any major trade for a 1yr player with hopes of an expensive extension. Just not prudent, or in keeping with the approach of our FO. What your numbers and all the rumors DO SAY TO ME is the Twins will not cut their "initial" 2020 payroll, or only have a slight cut. Now, I'm confused by the numbers you posted for 2020 as initial reports, IIRC, were south of $140M, not including bonus earnings. So if I read your adjusted 2019 to 2020 payroll numbers, the Twins raised an adjusted payroll approximately $6.5M. My biggest takeaway was still finishing at 19th in MLB, meaning they still hadn't hit the medium yet. Again, I do not expect some major trade that others hope for or speculate. They want sustainability and aren't willing to "gut" the system for an addition or two when the market is ripe to simply add vs trade. IMO, they will keep the payroll basically where it was to begin 2020. That would mean approximately $50M available, maybe slightly less, on a sliding scale of proration that is not yet determined. That is more than enough to augment the existing roster in a variety of ways from a SP not named Bauer, a quality bat that may or may not be Cruz, a couple nice 10th/11th man players and a couple of three RP in a flooded market. Might even have a couple $M left over for a 5th SP flier and a cheap veteran catcher option. I am guessing no major trade, but smart FA signings, a couple late deals, and maybe a small trade for someone they like. They payroll comes in, un-ajusted, around $135-140M. Pretty much how they began 2020.

Not addressing any of the rumors or speculation, simply the idea of a major trade. But I do think it's hard to always define what is a major trade. For example, Graterol wasn't a "major" trade because no All Star type, high salary players were involved. But it sure was a major trade when you talk about impact. A couple points to address: 1] The FO and ownership are not opposed to spending money and bumping payroll as long as it makes sense and brings value. But they also understand their market and their is a difference between value or being frugal vs being cheap, OR overspending vs return. 2] This FO is not opposed to trading young talent. But it also seems they are also always looking for a control factor in their return because... 3]...they want sustainability for the organization. And that's not just financial control or flexibility, it's having a quality milb system of drafting/signing and development. The deeper and better your system, the more "replacement" players you have to promote, but you then have more depth to trade for additions to your roster as well. The Twins have $ to spend this off-season, whether it be $35M or $50M. And they have enough depth within the system to deal 5-7 really nice prospects to bring someone or a pair of someone's to the team. But at some point, if you trade away top prospects, you better get a good return, AND, you have to then replace what you sent away. Of course, smart drafting and smart development allows you to do that. But it doesn't happen over night either. I don't believe the FO is adverse to making a big move. But I simply don't believe they would make any move for ANYONE on a 1yr deal. I think there is a much greater chance for a Darvish type move than a 1yr SS.

Absolutely understand this viewpoint 100%. I think having Astudillo as an extra option for the Twins as well as St Paul is a bit of a luxury. Telis much the same, but as a catcher only. He's really an emergency type, but has ML experience and at least hasn't embarrassed himself in his time. Beyond Rortvedt things do appear at first glance to be weak lower in the system. The problem is youth. Hamilton has been converted to catcher fairly recently and has position flexibility. I have serious doubts about his bat. The other guys are just young/inexperienced and right now we just have no idea if they have any real potential. And now missing a whole season just keeps the book of questions wide open. I think they need to add another good looking prospect or two here, no question. But I think if we actually have a full season in 2021, a couple of these guys could take a step forward. Unfortunately, that's true at almost every position.

This. I understand it is a "way too early projection" OP. I get it. It's an attempt to examine the NOW that leads to speculation and projection TOMORROW with reflection. But it really is way too early. The Dirty Sox have made a couple nice moves. The Twins haven't made a SINGLE one yet of any significance. But I would still put the Twins #1 at this point. You still have to do it on the field. In order to be the best, you have to beat the best. Now, someone a little more tech savy than me cue up a Rick Flair GIF. You out there Ash? LOL

I appreciate the numbers and reasons. All sound. And I'm more than willing to give pitchers and catchers across baseball, not just the Twins, a mulligan for 2020 because it was a strange year and we saw SO many examples of odd performances. Garver, IMO, is NOT what we saw in 2019. I mean, we are talking HOF, all time spectacular numbers! But he also not what we saw in 2020. And I don't need the 3 points in the OP to tell me that. He hit in college. He hit in the minors and was named the hitter of the year twice IIRC. He hit pretty well in his 2018 rookie season. I tend to agree with JLease, even if he hits like 2018...and I think he's better than that...with his growth behind the plate, he's a very good and valuable catcher.