Then I wouldn't get too obsessed that the Twins "didn't get a top 100 prospect". The Yankees got unranked Luis Gil for Jake Cave. 1/3 of the future top talent will spend time in the foreign rookie leagues. Quantity in prospects is a necessary hedge. If you want lower risk (only picking from AA and AAA players) you're going to give away potential upside.
It's the revenue sharing, not the salary cap. Adding a salary cap doesn't give the Tigers any additional resources. MLB already has a soft cap in the luxury tax system that forces more revenue sharing dollars to the smaller market teams. Take that away and they'll have even LESS revenue.
OTOH - if they get the incentives right for revenue sharing, they don't need a salary cap at all.
At a minimum Buxton should insist that his $2.5M in yearly plate appearance bonuses turn into guaranteed money. He's less likely to hit those bonuses on a contender with a stacked lineup. That would make his remaining contract 3 years / $52.5M.
Plate Appearances: $2.5M total
502: $500k
533: $500k
567: $500k
600: $500k
625: $500k
If Buxton didn't have a no-trade clause he'd already be gone. He's been injury-prone for his entire career and now he's 32. The Twins aren't going to win for the next two seasons and by the time they could put a good team together again Buxton will be 34 and a pending free agent.
Version 2.0 after the Winter Meetings could look like this:
Rotation: Ober, Bradley, Woods Richardson, Abel, Matthews
Bullpen: mostly the same
OF: Martin, Roden, Rodriguez, Wallner, Outman
IF: mostly the same
C: Austin Jackson, Reese McGuire
I don't think Byron Buxton will return two top-100 prospects. He's making $15M a year. One top prospect and one lower ranked prospect is more likely.
I think the Reds are the least likely of these teams. They need the prospects more than the other four teams.
Ok. So they placed bad bets and lost $500M in a bull market and now the Twins fans of Minnesota need to suffer because of their bad business decisions. I don’t think Bernie Madoff hurt the Mets that badly.
Even if they got a top 20 prospect (Sam Basallo, Nolan McLean, Jesus Made, Bryce Eldridge, Colt Emerson, Andrew Painter), I'd be asking for another prospect as a throw-in. I thought the Reds were fools to trade Sonny Gray straight up for Chase Petty.
"Trying to figure out which one helps reduce the debt". One pitcher makes $22M and the other makes less than $6M. I think I can tell you which one helps reduce the debt more.
I still refuse to believe the debt is real. How could they possibly run up $100M in debt in one season with revenues over $300M and a player payroll less than $130M? Who is going to jail for embezzlement?
I think "the debt" is their excuse to slash and burn and make it seem like they were forced to do it. It's a deflection from having to rebuild because the front office failed to produce a contender.
It would force moves of Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers and Larnach at a minimum. Bailey Ober and Royce Lewis would be the two highest paid players remaining as the payroll heads below $50M. Actually - Carlos Correa would be the highest paid player on the team since they're paying him $11.3M to play for Houston. The Pohlads should easily clear $100M in profit if that happens.
This is a straight-up no confidence vote from Byron Buxton. He doesn't believe Falvey can build a contender in the time he has left on his contract. I think he's probably correct in that assessment.
I think he's worth 3 prospects: one of them in the top 50, one just outside of the top 100 and another with bench/bullpen upside. The team acquiring him will get two cheap all-star caliber pitching seasons and the right to give him a qualifying offer and get a 1st round draft pick.
That doesn't square with his 448 career walks. He wasn't up there hacking at balls outside the strike zone. Oliva was a major league hitting coach for a decade. You don't get that job if your only hitting advice is "see ball, hit ball".