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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Fangraphs put Hajjar as the Reds 28th best prospect and a 40 FV. I'm going to guess Prielipp gets a 50 FV tag. They don't really compare. Cade Povich got a 45 FV, he's closer to Prielipp. Cincinnati Reds Top 46 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball
  2. DJL44
    Arraez hit his 95th percentile projection. You obviously don't want to bet that everyone will do that.
  3. DJL44
    Good post. I'll also add that Blast Motion and Rapsodo have allowed scouts to crosscheck their in-person observations with solid data. They don't have to put a 50 or 55 number on a breaking ball, they can measure how much it spins, how much it breaks and how well it gets located. They don't need to rely as much on in-game results because they have the raw performance data. The raw performance data is probably more reliable than watching a couple games here and there.
  4. DJL44
    I think someone has complained in every thread that each prospect rates too high. They can't all rate too high.
  5. DJL44
    Rankings from baseballtradevalues.com 1) Lee $38.9M 2) Lewis $22.7M 3) Rodriguez $19.7M 4) Julien $13.8M 5) Salas $13.6M 6) Martin $7.5M 7) Wallner $7.3M 8) Prielipp $5.9M 9) Woods-Richardson $5.4M 10) Canterino $5.3M 11) Varland $5.2M 12) Raya $5.1M 13) Mercedes $4.6M 14) Festa $4.3M 15) Miller $3.9M 16) Henriquez $2.7M Everyone else is < $2.5M. I think they're low on Prielipp. They value a competitive balance pick at $6M and I'd definitely trade one of those for Prielipp, Woods-Richardson or Varland.
  6. DJL44
    What has Canterino proven, that he can get injured? Martin has proven that he can't play SS or hit well enough to get promoted to AAA. Wallner has proven he can't play outfield and can strike out a ton. Baseball teams are looking for ceiling in prospects. If they want certainty they can buy a free agent. I doubt you would find a GM who would trade Salas for Wallner or Canterino. That's the way I look at prospects - would I trade this guy for that guy. I would absolutely trade a lower ceiling AAA player for a high ceiling recent draft pick.
  7. DJL44
    I see people use "defensive WAR" and that's always a trigger for me that they're not using the information correctly. I honestly wish baseball reference would do away with the dWAR column because it is used wrong by almost everyone. If you want to look at how baseball reference views Miranda's defense you need to go to the columns that list Rtot and Rdrs. Rtot is his total zone defense which was -1 at 1B and -3 at 3B. Rdrs is defensive runs saved - a different metric - which lists Miranda at -6 at 1B and 0 at 3B. He has very little data to go on, but if you project out his numbers using Rtot/yr or Rds/yr you get one system saying he is average at first base but 15 runs below average at third, the other system says he's average at 3B and 12 runs below average at first. The truth is probably somewhere in between. It's very unusual for someone who is below average at 1B to be good at 3B. Miranda is likely to be 0 to 10 runs below average as a third baseman with +5 to -15 possible.
  8. DJL44
    Moving around the diamond totally ruined Harmon Killebrew's career. 😉
  9. DJL44
    Smoltz had a 98 MPH four seam fastball and a nasty 91 MPH splitter. Varland has neither of those. Are you thinking of Greg Maddux? Maddux didn't have huge velocity but his fastball had movement and he hit his spots better than anyone else in baseball. I agree there is more than velocity - movement, location and pitch sequencing are important - but velocity sure does help a lot.
  10. DJL44
    I found this rule of thumb elsewhere: For example, it is worth dropping AVG from .300 to .270 if your SLG goes from .400 to .415. This assumes you're still taking your walks.
  11. DJL44
    The first two look alike, the third one is very different, heel rotation and bat angle.
  12. DJL44
    Is this true or just hearsay? I'd like to see video of before, during and after.
  13. DJL44
    If the coach is really so bad that "don't ever talk to Austin Martin" is the advice then they should fire the coach. If they can't trust a coach to make adjustments for different players then what good are they? I think posters are overreacting with their "leave him alone" advice. Martin's game is not good enough yet to be thinking he should be left alone without any improvement. Hell, Aaron Judge's game isn't good enough to be left completely alone.
  14. DJL44
    They should probably fire their minor league coaches if they're that bad.
  15. DJL44
    No, doubles are better because they are more likely to drive in the runner than a single.
  16. DJL44
    You've never understood player development and trying to create a successful major league hitter?
  17. DJL44
    Second base would be nice, it would let them trade Polanco. I'm pretty sure he can step into the outfield and play wherever, and he has a RH bat that complements the roster nicely. If he's going to get reps at 2B this season they need to move Julien to 1B (his likely professional position). Looking at his second set of swings I can see why they wanted to adjust it. He overstrides and gives up his weight transfer before the ball arrives, then slashes at it with quick hands. The first swing with the Wind Surge uniform is a much better approach.
  18. DJL44
    He probably won't be great at third. It's not one year, it's several years in the minors as well. There's literally no evidence he will be above average at 3B.
  19. DJL44
    Gallo
  20. DJL44
    I'm surprised he hasn't been named to the Twins Hall of Fame, especially considering his local origins.
  21. DJL44
    Probably the Baker, Blackburn, Bonser, Garza & Slowey group when Santana was young. They had Radke, Silva, Lohse then too.
  22. DJL44
    I don't see it that way at all. Ober will get innings this season even if he starts in AAA. If he wants to have a guaranteed spot in the rotation he needs to throw 160 effective innings this year. He's never thrown more than 110 in a season. Earn the spot.
  23. DJL44
    They can do that in a few weeks. It's possible they already have an agreement with someone, they just can't announce it yet.
  24. DJL44
    You can change the roster when Paddack returns. Use the 60 day injured list to add depth now knowing they will need it later. There is an obsession about the 26 man opening day roster when we should all realize the Twins will need the entire 40 man roster plus 10-20 other players to make it through the season. If they can add depth now they should. A pitcher they add now doesn't even have to be better than Emilio Pagan, he has to be better (at the start of the season) than the minor league free agents they have signed and the prospects that will begin the season in the minors. Any healthy pitcher who can put up a 4.50 ERA will be better than what they can get from Paddack in April. Find someone who lets them option Trevor Megill (and his lousy 81 ERA+ out of the bullpen) to AAA for a month. David Price was good last year. Chad Kuhl could be a good candidate for a relief conversion. Michael Fulmer, Brad Hand, Archie Bradley, Hunter Strickland. Watch the waiver wire.
  25. DJL44
    I look forward to wasting my time with Stu's articles.
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