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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    It should help Mauer that he's about as controversial as buttered toast. Catchers are rarely elected on the first ballot but Mauer should be elected by the writers eventually.
  2. DJL44
    You left off Chase Utley from the deserving players who become eligible next year.
  3. DJL44
    I looked up last season. Opening Day April 8, first transaction 4/12. 4/12 - Recalled Jax, Alcala to IL 4/13 - Larnach and Derek Rodriguez up, Kirilloff and Cotton down 4/14 - Garlick up, Rodriguez down The Opening Day roster lasted 4 games.
  4. DJL44
    Ober is the 6th starter and will likely need to be used in that role in April. Winder should be in the bullpen. I don't think he has the stuff for the rotation but could throw harder in shorter outings.
  5. DJL44
    I am expecting the Twins to add two relief pitchers when they are able to put Paddack and Canterino on the 60 day DL. Those two relievers will head north replacing 2 of Alcala, Moran and Megill.
  6. DJL44
    Has an Opening Day roster ever lasted a whole week? Most times by game 4 there's been a transaction to change the roster.
  7. DJL44
    Moving to the bullpen generally helps a pitcher's stuff. It is easier to throw hard for an inning and the pitcher can focus on perfecting only a couple of pitches. However, it doesn't usually help a pitcher's command to move to the bullpen.
  8. DJL44
    Kepler or Gordon. I don't know when they would play Nick Gordon now.
  9. DJL44
    Ober can't stay healthy. Varland is an unproven rookie. Maeda is going to have limited innings. I'll bet even with Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Maeda, Varland and Woods-Richardson we still see starts from other pitchers (Winder, Paddack, someone else undetermined) this season.
  10. DJL44
    The Twins have the best SS in the American League. You think Seager and Pena will make the team but Correa won't?
  11. DJL44
    The other first basemen in the American League are not great defensively. Arraez isn't perfect but he's good as the competition.
  12. DJL44
    I completely disagree with this statement. The shift is keeping batting averages down leaguewide but not for Arraez. His spray chart is all over the place and teams rarely shift on him. The revised shifting rules will raise batting averages for the rest of the players in the league which will make the gap between them and Arraez smaller. It makes Arraez less valuable with respect to other hitters.
  13. DJL44
    A player as good as Gallo getting paid the minimum on a 1 year contract would have $11.5M in trade value. It's player value minus what they are getting paid.
  14. DJL44
    You can't trade a player you just signed as a free agent until June 16th.
  15. DJL44
    This board overvalues players in the Twins system and undervalues players on other teams.
  16. DJL44
    That conflicts with the scouts who saw him play in the Arizona Fall League. Consensus was he can play SS. The same scouts say Austin Martin doesn't throw well enough to stick at SS.
  17. DJL44
    It's a fair comparison, but not to the Rod Carew people saw playing for the Twins in the 1970s. Arraez compares to the Rod Carew the Angels got in the 1980s: no longer a plus on the basepaths and limited to 1B,
  18. DJL44
    Using MLB trade value's numbers they are underpaying Gallo by $1.2M. The only way you can have surplus trade value on a 1 year contract is by underpaying.
  19. DJL44
    They're counting on one of Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Julien, Martin or Wallner to step forward and it's pretty good odds one of them will.
  20. DJL44
    Given enough outings, it mostly measures the inning the pitcher was used in.
  21. DJL44
    Salas reminds me of Jorge Polanco
  22. DJL44
    Salas is a stud prospect. I'm shocked he was the throw in.
  23. DJL44
    I don't know how they did it but the Twins might have received the two best players in this trade.
  24. DJL44
    The exact same risk exists with him pitching max-effort out of the bullpen. The only way to avoid injury risk is to keep him from pitching.
  25. DJL44
    Picture two relievers. One strikes out the 3, 4, 5 hitters in the bottom of the 8th when the team is behind by 5 runs. The team rallies and goes ahead by 1 run in the 9th. The next reliever walks the 6, 7, 8 hitters and gets #9 to line into a triple play to end the 9th. WPA would have you believe the 9th inning reliever did a better job than the 8th inning pitcher. WPA doesn't address fielding at all which means it is ignoring people who actually prevented or allowed runs (1/3 of the value assigned by WAR) and assigns all the value to the pitcher and the hitter. Just by ignoring fielding is it overestimating the value of the pitcher by at least 50%. It is a storytelling stat, not one that is useful to determine value. WAR awards leverage for circumstances out of the control of the pitcher but it doesn't address degree of difficulty. It is much more difficult to pitch 6 innings than it is to pitch 1 inning. The only reason the manager has the option to put a reliever in a high leverage situation is the starter was able to get them to that point in the game. I think leverage is a good way to determine whether a manager is using his bullpen correctly but it doesn't tell us anything about the effectiveness of a pitcher.
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