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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    I understand why the average number of wins would go down by 1.5, but the 90th percentile projection should go down by more than that. That upside projection is what gets them into the playoffs. They have a 0% chance at making the playoffs with 78-79 wins.
  2. DJL44
    Trades can still happen, but we are in spring training. It’s the preseason, not the offseason.
  3. DJL44
    Fangraphs dropped their win expectations by 1.5 wins due to the injury. I'm not sure how Pablo Lopez is worth that little to the Twins. If they actually made the playoffs, it would be partly due to Pablo Lopez leading the rotation with a 4-5 win season. There are two options here: a) Pablo Lopez is only a 1.5 WAR projected pitcher. Fangraphs doesn't think he's likely to be good for a whole season. b) Mick Abel is a 3 WAR pitcher and he was being blocked by Pablo. Otherwise, if you project Pablo as a 3 WAR pitcher and subtract 3 wins for his injury, that puts the Twins win projection at 77. With 77 wins, the playoff odds decrease from 31.7% down to somewhere below 20%. Regardless, Fangraphs currently has the Twins as the #22 team in their rankings - below the Reds and the Athletics. It thinks the Rays are a stronger team, but the Twins have a better playoff chance due to their weak division.
  4. DJL44
    15-inning 1-0 games.
  5. DJL44
    Pitchers and catchers reported. It's done.
  6. DJL44
    I'm sure they can get Pablo to come back when he's washed up and the rest of the league isn't interested anymore, just like they did with Taylor Rogers.
  7. DJL44
    The Twins only chance is for MLB to change the rules to discourage the big revenue teams from making big revenues? That's not going to happen. They might have a chance at some reform if it is tied to expansion, but MLB does better when the Dodgers and Yankees win.
  8. DJL44
    The other option seems to be guys who are unusable against RHB and LHB - like Travis Adams.
  9. DJL44
    I don't know if there are five teams who would claim him for the waiver fee.
  10. DJL44
    I wonder if a slightly heavier ball would help. It would prevent home runs and put more balls in play.
  11. DJL44
    Why would we want Adams in the bullpen when we could use Festa instead? I'm not super worried right now about having 4 lefties in the bullpen. They're all better pitchers than the next available AAA reliever. Plus, odds are high one of them will be injured at any given time. Always plan that one of your top 8 relievers will be on the injured list. If Hendriks is worth keeping, then he probably shares the closer role with Rogers.
  12. DJL44
    Which position players are huge question marks? Keaschall is the only one we don't know about. The rest are mostly proven commodities. Are they going to learn anything about James Outman, Kody Clemens or Tristan Gray?
  13. DJL44
    80-82 is out of the playoffs. They don't hang 3rd place pennants at Target Field. But that's a false equivalence. Trading Joe Ryan is the difference between 74-88 and 69-93. He's not worth 20 wins on his own. Are you a huge fan of 74-88? That's a team that is irrelevant from May to September. It's not a terrible idea. Adding Giolito gives them something else to trade away in July. Buy low, sell high.
  14. DJL44
    Expansion could help. Increase the difference between the worst teams and the best teams. More blowouts where the best starting pitchers can get by with 80% of their stuff. End the DH and bring back pitchers hitting.
  15. DJL44
    Doubling down would be stupid. They tried to thread the needle with a "stars and scrubs" roster. They just lost one of their most important stars. This drops the already low playoff odds in half. Those players will be worth less at the trade deadline then they are worth today. They lost all the leverage when that MRI result came back. The plan was "if everything goes right, we can compete". That plan is already in the garbage can. The new plan has to be getting younger players ready to compete in 2027.
  16. DJL44
    This isn't a particularly young roster. The only rookie they're counting on is Luke Keaschall. I don't think Buxton's leadership is going to matter at all for Larnach, Bell, Clemens, etc.
  17. DJL44
    Trade Joe Ryan now
  18. DJL44
    Which is why the plan was doomed from the start. Run back the same roster plus a decent catcher, a bad first baseman and some mediocre middle relievers and somehow win 15 games more than they did last season. If Pablo is out for the season, you can knock 3 wins off the rosy 80-win projection for 2026. That cuts their playoff odds in half.
  19. DJL44
    They already did that
  20. DJL44
    You can't be paying double what other teams would pay just because you value players higher than other teams. You should only pay enough to win the bid. Nobody else was going to bid more than $4M for Josh Bell.
  21. DJL44
    Losing Pablo right now should trigger trades of Joe Ryan, Ryan Jeffers and Byron Buxton before the season begins.
  22. DJL44
    Moving early to get Bell for $7M looks like at least a $4M overpayment. Miguel Andujar signed for $4M, Nathaniel Lowe and Ty France just signed minor league deals and Rhys Hoskins is still waiting for an opportunity. Lowe makes just $1.75M if he makes the team.
  23. DJL44
    Stealing second base. Still unlikely that they can steal third even with a knuckleball pitcher. Walks and passed balls are a bigger issue.
  24. DJL44
    All the starting shortstop options also stink.
  25. DJL44
    When they acquired him, I wondered why they wanted another Kody Clemens on the roster. Then I looked at the shape of the roster and realized that, sadly, a second Kody Clemens was useful. I am guessing he starts the season in St. Paul and is the first infielder called up if there is an injury.
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