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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Lee is a good teammate
  2. DJL44
    Tristan Gray heating up
  3. DJL44
    This game felt like a playoff game… against the Yankees. I am glad that Culpepper is getting experience in a pennant race but it is clear he needs to slow down the game.
  4. DJL44
    What do you think the median expectation is for a pick in the 20s? The average is 5-7 WAR but the median is zero. Half the first round picks in the 20-30 range never meaningfully contribute.
  5. DJL44
    Prielipp probably needs a better third pitch to make it through the lineup a third time. In the meantime, have the bullpen ready in the 5th inning.
  6. DJL44
    Where’s Rocco’s quick hook when you need it?
  7. DJL44
    They have received about $7M worth of value for $7M. That’s not some sort of super genius move.
  8. DJL44
    He has had access to the best prep coaching available and played at the highest levels including the 18U national team. This is not his first exposure to pitchers who throw 90+. He can’t hit balls pitched in the strike zone. He isn’t getting any better, even though they overhauled his swing during the offseason. It has been a full year and he hasn’t adjusted at all. Winokur is an okay prospect. He struck out 28% at the same age and level. Polanco struck out 11% of the time at the same age and level. Arraez struck out 10% at the same age and level. Young strikes out 45% of the time. He is leading the Florida State League in strikeouts by 32 over the next closest batter. Nobody else in the entire league is striking out more than 40% of the time. Are you seeing the difference now? He is #2 in strikeouts in all of minor league baseball and the #1 player (Elijah Green) strikes out 43% of the time. Green was the Nationals #3 prospect in 2023 after the draft, dropped to #6 a year later, 25th in 2025 and is now off the list. That is the best comp for Quentin Young. If Young had gone to LSU instead of the draft and put up this batting line in college he would be undrafted. That doesn’t even factor in his struggles on defense. He’s even been caught stealing 9 times against 7 stolen bases. This season has been a complete disaster for him.
  9. DJL44
    I don’t expect Gray or Fedko to make it through the offseason on the roster either.
  10. DJL44
    They should probably cut him loose from the 40 man roster and give the spot to someone else.
  11. DJL44
    He’s not having a mediocre season. He’s having a terrible season. Can you find even one player who struck out 45% of the time in low A, figured it out and had a career?
  12. DJL44
    But he has missed a ton of time. Your comp, Pete Alonso, routinely leads the league in games played. He’s missed 10 games over the past 5 seasons. Royce has missed 250 games over the last four seasons. What is “fair market” for a first baseman with a career 108 OPS who routinely misses 60 games a year? That’s not quite worth Ryan O’Hearn money. I think $10M is fair, but salary inflation could get that up to $12M by 2028. As far as his market value as a free agent, I think Josh Naylor is the best case scenario - if Royce can stay healthy. If he gets hurt again then he is probably looking at a 1 year contract. Guaranteed 2 extra years and $33M right now could be appealing. 4 years $48M would be my opening offer. Boras could come back with something ridiculous like 7 years $120M. If the Twins don’t extend him we will see weekly “trade Royce Lewis” articles at Twins Daily.
  13. DJL44
    Right, but he doesn’t have much of a choice but to take a discount in arbitration. His stats for the past two years suck. Plus he’s been injured a LOT so there is that factor that will depress his value on a free market contract. I think there is an opportunity this offseason, but only this offseason. Even a 3 year contract would be preferable to the 2 years of arbitration control they currently have.
  14. DJL44
    In 60 games. I don’t think he will catch more than 90 games, which would mean 10 caught stealing and 20 SB allowed. That is actually pretty impressive control of the running game.
  15. DJL44
    This offseason is the sweet spot for a Royce Lewis contract extension. His overall numbers will depress his arbitration award. Next offseason will be too late, he will go to free agency. I don’t see him getting more than $16M in arbitration for the next two seasons. Would he go for a guaranteed 4 years and $48M?
  16. DJL44
    They need a second baseman more than they need a DH. Add Arraez there (or Jazz Chisholm, Lowe, Torres, etc). I would love to see a “bench” of Martin, Kreidler, Clemens and Rodriguez with the DH spot open for one of the regulars to get a partial rest day.
  17. DJL44
    Good to see Emmanuel Rodriguez heating up
  18. DJL44
    The biggest reason for my pessimism is he’s had a year’s worth of practice and reps and the results don’t appear to be getting any better. He hasn’t improved his defense or his strikeouts. He’s a year older and not making progress. There are a lot of rungs he still needs to climb and he needs to make adjustments a lot quicker than this if he wants to climb all of them.
  19. DJL44
    Young is the same age as Fragoza with a very different trajectory
  20. DJL44
    Yes, he’s a short side platoon player, pinch runner and defensive replacement. He has played in 110 games but only started 71 of them. Of those 71 starts, he only finished 57.
  21. DJL44
    Alan Roden is getting 10 plate appearances a week. He has already taken a seat.
  22. DJL44
    He might not be a bust now, but he’s headed in that general direction. He’s clearly less interesting now than he was on draft day. He is striking out over 40% of the time and has been awful on defense. He will probably end up in Fort Myers for a 3rd straight season.
  23. DJL44
    They had an injury to a bench player and called up a bench player.
  24. DJL44
    It is not easy to make these decisions. Is Larnach struggling, or is it just a small sample size blip? Is Jenkins ready or did he just see a string of lousy AAA pitching? It takes about a month’s worth of plate appearances to really know. By the time they have enough data it will be September. A lot of this comes down to the manager. If Shelton won’t play Jenkins over Larnach, then they should keep him in AAA. If they wait long enough an injury will make the decision for them and they won’t have to stick their neck out.
  25. DJL44
    Young is currently following the Keoni Cavaco development path
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