DJL44

It would mean they keep $150M of the $300M they make off their current 1.4M attendance which is obviously too high. $200M revenue from 1.4M fans ($140/fan) seems more reasonable. That means losing 300,000 fans costs the team $21M.

Good example of an underwater contract, but the Nationals are in the same situation as the Twins. They don't need to move salary to get under a payroll limit.

That's about 350,000 tickets. How much is each fan worth? Let's go with $200 (which seems like a high estimate, I've never spent $200 per person at a game). The Twins keep 52% of that money and the other 48% goes to the league. That means dropping 350,000 in attendance = losing $36.4M in revenue. That is a bottom 5 attendance level, below even the Pirates.

It can't be operational losses. That would mean the Twins would have to run a payroll below $80M to break even and a payroll below $50M to handle the debt service.

Which makes it hard to lower the team's value below what they're paying right now. Suck cash out until you get your ROI and flip it for what you paid for it. Has a venture capital firm every dreamed about winning the World Series? No - only billionaire owners who grew up as a fan have that dream. A VC firm will spend the bare minimum.

Not really. Jeffers is going to get $6M in arbitration so it's really a 2 year $24M extension. That's 20% more than Vazquez received.

Jeffers would have to be a braindead idiot to turn down the qualifying offer. It would be roughly 1 year $23M making him the highest paid catcher in baseball.

Outman and Julien would be the first players I cut off this 40-man roster. If you need another guy like that during the season, check the waiver wire.

Expect Varde Partners to act like any private equity group: extreme cost cuts while you drain every last dollar out of the organization and then sell the brand (which is all that is left) to some other company.

What is the point of keeping Buxton, Ryan and Lopez if you're going to trade away your only other above average position player for prospects?

I agree, but that is probably going to put him in Cooperstown.

I'm not convinced that Derek Shelton is a better manager than Rocco Baldelli. He could be worse.

No, he's more like past his prime Salvador Perez, who just signed for 2 years $25M with $9.5M of that deferred past his retirement.

I could see an open competition and use spring training to pick one to carry all season. Worst case is they don't have one in the organization going forward, but that's the case even if they don't have a competition. I think I'd rather take a chance on one of the Yankees arms in the bullpen than auditioning Susac.

Cal Raleigh gets paid $17.5M a season. Jeffers is no Cal Raleigh. Realmuto made $23M but he's a potential Hall of Famer. Catchers don't get paid that much. Jeffers is most likely getting 3/$36 if he goes to free agency next year. Including this arbitration season, that's a 4 year $42M contract.

I'll keep hoping for a contract extension. The team has a need at catcher for several years and the cash to pay him.

Sounds like he is headed back to Arizona. Twins don’t have to worry about him.

Have you seen the other AL central rosters? Someone could win the central with 82 wins.

If anyone has any other bad contract to add, put them in the comments.

If the Twins decide to sell Lopez, Ryan, Buxton, Jeffers and Ober they would end up with a payroll less than $45M for 2026. That gets them into MLB grievance territory. Generally, a rebuilding team is going to play young players who don't earn much more than the minimum. The teams who are interested in buying talent from the Twins are big spenders who are either close to or over the luxury tax. If they're trying to win now, they want to shed any dead payroll and would be willing to give up minor league talent to do so. In addition, a bad contract for a team over the luxury tax counts higher than the contract value because of penalties they have to incur. The benefit for the Twins is two-fold. One, they are able to acquire more and better prospects by taking on high value contracts that other teams no longer want. Two, as those contracts get paid down with time, the value of the asset they acquired can only go up. It's possible the Twins can acquire a player, pay them for a while and flip them elsewhere later. Here are some overvalued contracts from teams rumored to be interested in trading for Twins players. Sean Manea - Mets: He received CYA votes in 2024 and his peripherals were good in 2025, though his health wasn't. Owed $50M over 2 seasons with $14M deferred. Could eventually turn into a tradeable asset, or at least good enough to dump the remaining salary elsewhere. Masataka Yoshida - Red Sox: A 32-year-old DH with $18.6M owed for each of the next two seasons. Gets on base, but the Twins have no need for another left-handed hitting DH. Eduardo Rodriguez - Diamondbacks: A bad pitcher on a terrible contract pitching for a team trying to cut payroll from all-time highs. Owed $40M over 2 years. Maybe the bullpen is his future? Aaron Nola - Phillies: A borderline Hall of Fame talent for his era but his remaining 5 years, $120M looks like an anchor. Contract runs too long for the Twins to want to risk taking it all on. Nick Castellanos - Phillies: Owed $20M for 2026, this contract is over quickly. I don't expect him to enjoy playing for the Twins at all and I don't expect the Twins to be able to turn him into a tradeable asset. They would be better off releasing him if they acquired his salary. Teoscar Hernandez - Dodgers: Conveniently makes about the same salary as Byron Buxton over the same time period (3 years $45M). Has been rumored to be available as the Dodgers look to reallocate money. Still a solid, everyday player. Probably works best if there is a 3-team deal because the Twins will be looking to unload him immediately. Tommy Edman - Dodgers: 4 years left on his deal at $12M a season. Also more likely to end up elsewhere in a 3-team deal rather than having the Twins keep him. Blake Treinen - Dodgers: Owed $13.5M for 2026, he would look a lot more attractive at the trade deadline with only $8-9M remaining on the contract. Would be the Twins closer until then. Hyesong Kim - Dodgers: Would be a starting infielder for the Twins at a modest $4M salary for each of the next two seasons. Also has club options at $5M for 2028 and 2029. Had a decent debut season and may have untapped potential. Sean Murphy - Braves: A former All-Star and Gold Glove catcher who is recovering from a hip injury. Owed $15M for each of 2026, 2027 and 2028. Could easily make another All-Star game as the Twins token representative. Jurickson Profar - Braves: Owed $15M for each of 2026 and 2027. Would be one of the Twins better bats and can play 1B. Potential to flip him immediately. Aaron Bummer - Braves: $9.5M remaining for 2026. Would be interesting to see if Pete Maki can unlock his 2024 performance.

I believe this is true, correct me if I'm wrong, but these projections are for rosters as-is, which basically means the Twins could finish 82-80 if all the free agents on the market retire. As the free agent talent gets allocated to other teams that 82-win projection will drop. I think the other thing adding helium to the Twins win total is the division they play in. They play a lot of games against the weak AL Central.

I keep wondering how many prospects they can get to take bad contracts off the luxury tax paying teams. If they’re willing to take on Manea from the Mets, can they get even more talent?

Andujar's speed has dropped so he's not really an outfielder anymore, but I think he can play first base. The Twins can apparently coach anyone to become a gold glove first baseman, though that was under the previous coaching staff.

I don’t think that’s why they want to trade Ryan and Jeffers. If the Twins trade Buxton, Lopez, Ryan and Jeffers, they should spend some of that enormous amount of available money on free agents who can be flipped in July for more prospects.