DJL44

They already share a baseline 48% of revenue but it's all put into a pool and divided out evenly. There needs to be incentives for attendance. I think they need to share all of the money from media 100%, just like they would if they had a national contract like the NFL. Let the league sell media rights. In exchange for that, remove the revenue sharing for the in-person attendance. Large market teams will still do better than small market teams (it's actually a bad idea for MLB to minimize revenue in large markets) but teams who sell out the stadium will do best of all. Attendance is driven mostly (but not entirely) by winning. To win you need to either run your organization well or spend a ton of money. Major League Baseball Finances: What the Numbers Tell Us | Elliot Morss According to that source, teams make $4.3B in TV money and $2.3B in attendance money. Other sources have total revenue at $12B for the whole league. There is $2B in leaguewide sponsorship money. MLB Revenues Hit Record $12.1 Billion In 2024 There is a $90M gap between the Twins TV revenue sharing money and the Dodgers. There is only a $60M gap between their attendance revenue. The Twins can't put themselves in a bigger market to get a better TV deal, but they can figure out how to get people to attend games. Top teams by TV revenue Dodgers Angels Yankees Red Sox Mariners (but Root Sports just ended which will move them back to the pack) Cubs Top teams by attendance revenue Dodgers Cardinals Yankees Cubs Angels Rockies Net winners of changing to sharing 100% of TV money and 0% of attendance money Cardinals +30M Rockies +28M Brewers +25M Braves +15M Padres +10M Twins +9M Net losers Dodgers -51M Angels -22M Mariners -20M Tigers -14M Orioles -12M White Sox -9M The Dodgers are still #1 in revenue and Marlins are #30 but the gap shrinks by $50M.

I like Miller, but that's less than they got from the Phillies for Jhoan Duran. Miller plus Chace is closer to equal value. I'm not trading Ryan Jeffers for a bad first baseman and a bad catcher. That's a terrible trade.

If the Twins offer an additional 3 years and $36M from 2027-29 he would be a fool not to take it. That's the best-case scenario for what he would get next offseason, and it would be guaranteed now.

There is no evidence for this assertion. The union continually pushes the best players to go to free agency in order to drive up salaries. Higher star salaries drive higher arbitration awards. The Twins aren't going to double Mickey Gasper's salary because Pablo Lopez had to take a smaller contract. The cap and floor model is not why the NFL has been successful. The 100% sharing of media money is what drives the success in the NFL. If MLB tries to institute cap and floor without changing revenue sharing it will destroy the small market teams and make the largest teams even more profitable. OTOH - if the MLB owners change the revenue sharing formula, then there is no need for a salary cap. Here's the fun part - there is no reason for a lockout to change the revenue sharing formula. The players don't really care how the owners divide the revenue amongst themselves.

I still don’t think MLB is willing to lose $10 billion dollars in 2027 to get a salary cap. It would save the teams about $400M a year in spending on the players. That’s about a 4% rate of return, or less than they have seen in team appreciation. Plus, the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs and Phillies would capture nearly all of the benefit. Why would the Pohlads and Bob Nutting give up their profit and give it to the Yankees and Dodgers? MLB doesn’t need a salary cap. It needs a different revenue sharing system. Share all of the media dollars and none of the in-person attendance dollars. Give teams $$ incentives to get people to the ballpark. The teams with the fewest people in the stands shouldn’t be the most profitable.

That would be money well spent. Devin Williams is projected to sign for 4 years, $68M. Ryan Helsley is predicted to get 2 years, $24M but some teams are looking to acquire him to start and that estimate is likely to be low. You're not getting either one for 1 year, $7.25M. I doubt you could sign Emilio Pagan for that number. Phil Maton just got 2 years, $14.5M.

Player A has been nominated for a gold glove award at first base and Player B is a below average left fielder. I don't have any confidence that Player B can be converted into a plus defender at first base. The Twins have about a dozen left fielders and no first baseman. I think the Reds will keep Steer but they might let Christian Encarnacion-Strand go. I'd rather have CE-S than Julien. CE-S still has options and he isn't a total butcher at first base.

The Reds have a huge hole on the roster in LF and DH

I like steps one, four and five. Those are going to be essential to winning. Steps two and three: I would rather see them find someone younger for first base. If they have Funderburk and Prielipp in the bullpen then they don't need another lefty reliever. They absolutely have to find another shortstop and another first baseman if they want to contend. I think Jordan Lawlar is the right combination of talented and blocked in his organization and I'd be more than willing to offer Bailey Ober to acquire him. There are lots of available first basemen younger than Goldschmidt. I think Spencer Steer has everything they're looking for at a lower salary, and I think they may be able to get him for Trevor Larnach and a prospect in the 20-30 range. Plus, that frees up the spot in the outfield for Emmanuel Rodriguez (or Gonzalez or Jenkins). There are a few more things to do this offseason 6) Extend Ryan Jeffers contract. They have to either extend him or trade him and if they want to contend that means a contract extension. 7) Spend some money on the bullpen. You'll notice that the only transaction I've outlined above that costs anything is extending Jeffers. The two trades actually lower the payroll to the $85M range. That gives them cash to throw at relief pitching. They need to think bigger than Caleb Thielbar. Kenley Jansen is as proven of a closer as you can get and the estimated contract is one year for $9M. He wants to get to 500 saves and is looking for a team that will let him close games. The Twins are a great fit. OF: Buxton, Wallner, Martin, Roden, Rodriguez IF: Lewis, Lawlar, Keaschall, Steer, Lee, Clemens C: Jeffers, Jackson SP: Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, Woods Richardson, Matthews RP: Jansen, Festa, Prielipp, Sands, Orze, Funderburk, Topa, optionable rookie That's not a World Series contender, but they have a chance at the weak AL Central.

I will also, mainly because I doubt Ryan Jeffers wants to play for the 2026-28 Minnesota Twins. Why would he? I'd rather try to play for a winner if I had the choice.

And that doesn't count Walker Jenkins, who will need a spot next summer. Thank goodness they cut Keirsey. They also have 3 RH hitting OF and two more in the upper minors (Rosario and Fedko). They don't need 14 outfielders. Pereda seems to be able to hit and throw but struggled to actually catch the ball. You didn't even get into the marginal players like Kody Clemens, Austin Jackson and Eric Orze who were recently acquired for nothing or next to nothing.

I agree that he could be a utility infielder but obviously that's not what you want from the #33 pick in the draft. He's also clearly not the 33rd best MLB prospect who was drafted in 2024. Therefore, down arrow.

Or extend Jeffers, grab Susac and put Austin Jackson on waivers.

That's not middle of the pack. 60 catchers will be on Opening Day rosters.

The catcher market doesn't usually go that high. Sean Murphy is getting $15M because he's an All-Star with a gold glove award. Will Smith is making $14M and Cal Raleigh is at $17.5M. I don't think Jeffers is in that performance tier. If they want Sean Murphy, there are rumors that the remaining 3 years and $45M of his contract are available due to ROY Drake Baldwin. I might be tempted to take that contract on and trade Jeffers if he won't sign for less than $36M.

The Twins absolutely have to spend some money extending contracts for the players they've developed. That's the most effective use of their budget.

Last year probably was a better time, they could have negotiated a lower number, but this season works for me too. Jeffers will be the best catcher available as a free agent next season. By Fangraphs he's the 18th best catcher over the last two seasons - almost exactly as valuable as Salvador Perez. Perez just signed an extension for 2 years, $25M. The Twins have Jeffers with one arbitration season remaining at about $6M so a 3yr-$30M contract would be market rate. I would try to get an option/buyout for 2029 at $12M/$1M as well. Jeffers will turn 32 in 2029. Even though Jeffers will be the best free agent catcher next season, I don't think he will get more than a 3 year, $36M contract. If he takes the $30M now he would be potentially giving up $12M. That would be mitigated somewhat by the option year. The big risk for Jeffers is he suffers a major injury this season that keeps him from playing behind the plate in future seasons. He'd be risking $30M to try for an extra $12M.

Eeles may have been a Saints fan favorite but he never played for the Twins. He's freely available talent, just like most AAA players.

Brandon Clarke is a pretty good prospect add for the Cardinals. They will be looking to sell more players. I expect Brendan Donovan, JoJo Romero and Nolan Arenado to end up somewhere else, not sure about Willson Contreras or Lars Nootbaar.

There are at least a dozen major and minor league free agent first basemen with more impressive stats than an 825 OPS in AAA.

Cole Peschl has been okay

I don't know if this makes them more or less likely to trade for Joe Ryan. They filled a spot in the rotation but may want to add even more.

Red Sox are taking on most of the salary and returning a mediocre reliever and minor league pitcher.

Sure, but not for outfielders

If you're looking at a redraft 18 months later, then you would see these grades Culpepper - up DeBarge - down Amick - down Hill - up Diaw - flat Ferrer - down Kendle - down Nick Kurtz might go #1 now instead of #4 and Payton Tolle at #50 looks like a great pick by the Red Sox.