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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    I don't expect any of these batters to approach their xWOBA predicted results. Julien over his last two seasons (509 PAs) hit .208/.299/.324 while providing negative value on defense. He has consistently struck out 32% of the time. His walk rate has dropped from 15% in his rookie season to 11% since then as pitchers found the holes in his approach. Filling the roster with bad players who may have underperformed a prediction metric is a recipe for a 100+ loss season.
  2. DJL44
    There were minor league free agents who were more interesting but they were signed quickly by more competent front offices.
  3. DJL44
    God help them if they go north with Arcia as the backup SS.
  4. DJL44
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/twins-sign-orlando-arcia-to-minor-league-deal.html This really is becoming the island of misfit toys. Arcia was terrible in 2025. I know there is no commitment here but I can't imagine keeping him in AAA with Culpepper in the system.
  5. DJL44
    This. The Twins now have three roster spots tied up in first base - Clemens, Wagaman and Bell. The projected performance range collectively is somewhere between 0 WAR and 2 WAR.
  6. DJL44
    How would he be "fine"? He was awful last season - legitimately one of the worst infielders in baseball.
  7. DJL44
    I agree with you. My point is this is the least talented player they've tried in this role. They tried Garlick and Margot and Ty France and it failed three times but by gosh it's going to work this time with a player who isn't even as good as any of those players.
  8. DJL44
    That's a good point. Keaschall seems to be a smarter baseball player than Martin, which makes it likely he'll be better at 2B in the long run. Second basemen need to react properly in several different situations and interact with other fielders. Left fielders just need to run and catch the ball.
  9. DJL44
    That's Fangraphs.
  10. DJL44
    They filled the hole at 1B by acquiring the 37th and 43rd best first basemen of 2025.
  11. DJL44
    Manny Margot had a much more impressive career than Wagaman has had to date and was coming off a more productive previous season when the Twins acquired him.
  12. DJL44
    To be fair, this isn't a half-measure. It's more like a 1/4 measure.
  13. DJL44
    Plus Julien. They have six 13th men on the roster.
  14. DJL44
    They have $12M tied up in Josh Bell and Trevor Larnach.
  15. DJL44
    Kreidler is the only player on the 40-man roster who can play shortstop. That said, I am 99% sure that giving that 26-man roster spot to Kaelen Culpepper is a better idea.
  16. DJL44
    Clemens is one of the best defenders on the team. I'm not thrilled with this move. I would have preferred Miguel Andujar for this role. He's still available, maybe they can still add him and option Wagaman later. The fail with this move is cutting Fitzgerald and not Eddie Julien. Wagaman eliminates any role for Julien and he's out of options. I don't see how they can co-exist on the same 26-man roster.
  17. DJL44
    It probably isn't, but .360 should be good enough for him to hit leadoff. A .270/.360/.360 season would be great for Martin. I like Martin/Keaschall/Buxton in that order whether it is 1/2/3 or 9/1/2. Bell, Jeffers, Wallner and Lewis are the middle of the order with Lee and Clemens at the bottom. I think Keaschall will play 2B and Martin will play LF but they could swap positions during the course of the season. Either of them could even get games at first base. I expect Kody Clemens to get innings at 1B, 2B and LF as well.
  18. DJL44
    They also trade away short-term veterans in that same situation.
  19. DJL44
    They rushed Keaschall to the majors
  20. DJL44
    What would it take to swing a blockbuster trade with the Cardinals? Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar and JoJo Romero for ??? Is Emmanuel Rodriguez, Kyle DeBarge, Riley Quick, Ryan Gallagher, Marco Raya and Billy Amick enough? How about a 1-for-1 with Roden for Nootbaar?
  21. DJL44
    They don't have to make the team better in the future, just 2026. None of the 5 players I want to cut make the team better in the future. Miguel Andujar and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa (for example) make the team better in 2026. Dump Outman and Julien and add those two. Then watch the waiver wire for players like Kody Clemens to replace Gasper and Kreidler.
  22. DJL44
    They have outfield prospects on the cusp, but no infielders above Double-A. "Bench guys" play a LOT of at-bats. Julien, Outman, Kreidler, Gasper and Fitzgerald had 500 plate appearances in 2025 for a combined WAR of -2.0. Replacing their playing time with two 1.0 WAR players adds 4 wins to the team. I saw this same argument last season. "The Twins shouldn't add Harrison Bader, they have DaShawn Keirsey on the roster already." It was a dumb argument then and looks even dumber in hindsight.
  23. DJL44
    Brendan Donovan is very available, fits in the 2026-27 window, fills a gaping hole on the roster and fits in the budget. That's the kind of move they need to make if they are serious about contending in 2026 and 2027. If the team fails to "thread the needle" he's tradeable again at the deadline. Other players who "fit the window" Taylor Walls, Hyesong Kim, Lars Nootbaar
  24. DJL44
    There are some interesting things about the Fangraphs 80-82 roster projection. 1) It depends on the Twins starting Kaelen Culpepper at SS. Culpepper projects as the 3rd most valuable player on the roster - ahead of Luke Keaschall, Ryan Jeffers and Royce Lewis. Does anyone see this front office handing Culpepper the job out of spring training? Does anyone think ZIPS might be a bit too optimistic about Culpepper's 2026? 2) It thinks Outman (1.3 WAR), Julien (1.2), Gasper (1.0), Clemens (1.0), Jackson (0.9), Pereda (0.7), Fitzgerald (0.6), Bell (0.5) and Kreidler (0.4) will all be above replacement value contributors. It estimated Keirsey Jr as a 1.0 WAR player. This is due to ZIPS regressing numbers to the mean and only estimating playing time assuming a player will actually contribute. That group combines for 7.5 WAR and I'd put the actual number much closer to zero. Making that contribution zero drops the overall projection from 80 wins to 73. There is some upside. If the Twins can replace Outman, Julien, Gasper, Fitzgerald and Kreidler with actual 1.0 WAR contributors, they can get back to 78 wins with this roster. Players like that are still floating around in free agency waiting for an opportunity.
  25. DJL44
    Trust the process....
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