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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    He's also really young, just 24 in 2025. There's more room for upside with SWR than there is for Miranda or Julien just due to age.
  2. DJL44
    And yet they're middle of the pack in stolen bases allowed (0.7 per game). If the Twins "don't control the running game" then the only team in MLB who does is Kansas City.
  3. DJL44
    His arbitration projection is $4.5M to $5M for this season. I think they could get him to sign 5/7/9/9. Jeffers would be risking about $6M to guarantee $25M.
  4. DJL44
    He's going to burn a half season and his last option making the adjustments, if he can. He's also working his way down the defensive spectrum toward 1B which means he has to really hit to contribute.
  5. DJL44
    No, as @chpettit19 pointed out elsewhere, Julien can't hit breaking balls. He got away with not swinging at them in the minors but they figured him out in the big leagues.
  6. DJL44
    2024: 17% caught stealing vs league average of 21%. 59 stolen bases and 12 caught stealing in 720 innings. That's 3 extra bases allowed in 720 innings compared to an average MLB catcher. That is approximately 1 extra stolen base allowed every 25 games. If you double his stolen bases allowed to 118 to account for playing 1/2 of the games and compare to MLB teams, that would rank just slightly better than average (3617 bases stolen by 30 teams = 120.5 per team). Over his career he's been better than 2024, only 7 extra stolen bases in 301 games worth of catching or one every 43 games. Your statement is directly contradicted by the data.
  7. DJL44
    They should absolutely be looking to extend Jeffers. This offseason is their last chance to buy out free agency seasons at a discount. Even if they want to trade him later, they should be looking to extend him now to increase his value as a trade asset.
  8. DJL44
    Julien's value is all about 2025-26. He's in the prime of his career and he looked bad last season. Not enough bat or glove to make the roster. Raya is a "going forward" kind of player. Miranda and Julien are "now or never".
  9. DJL44
    Talk is cheap. Julien shouldn't be on the 26-man roster to start the season and Miranda has shown so much unique and special ability that he's the one guy the GM is trying to replace in free agency.
  10. DJL44
    And the value of prospects on teams who are trying to win NOW is equal to their trade value. I wish I knew when the Twins were going to try to win. It would make an exercise like this make so much more sense. They can't seem to make up their mind about trying to win now or win later.
  11. DJL44
    Starting pitchers are the scarcest commodity in MLB. Objectively bad starting pitchers are getting $12-$15M a season in free agency. Mediocre bats with below average defense are freely available every offseason.
  12. DJL44
    This is false. Teams routinely sell off expensive veterans with little team control when they aren't trying to win in the near-term. Value to this team specifically is related to WHEN they are trying to build their championship caliber team.
  13. DJL44
    Except there aren't, because you can always use money to obtain players every offseason. It all boils down to dollar sign on the muscle. If you're looking at likelihood that a player helps the team win a championship this season as their "asset value" then I'd say their asset value to the Twins is much lower than their trade value. Nearly every other MLB team is trying harder to win a championship than the Twins are this season.
  14. DJL44
    How much value does Correa have each year? The value of the WAR he provided minus his salary. This is basically the same as his trade value. If a team lacks players at a particular position, then value to the team might be a little higher but not much. Same goes for a team that has a surplus at a particular position, they can devalue a player by not selling. If the Pohlads never sell the Twins they still have an asset value equal to what they could get if they sold them.
  15. DJL44
    It is nearly impossible to disentangle "asset values" from "trade values". A stock only has as much value as you can sell it for cash.
  16. DJL44
    That's a decent start for a list like this. I don't think Correa has that much positive value after two injured seasons. I don't think Julien has that much positive value after a season where he wasn't worth a roster spot.
  17. DJL44
    They absolutely should try to trade someone for Cartaya. They should probably aim higher and try to pick off some additional low-cost talent from the Dodgers organization.
  18. DJL44
    SWR would bring back more in trade than Miranda and Julien would together. He's clearly the most valuable asset in the 5 players mentioned in this article.
  19. DJL44
    I think Julien in the top 30 assets is a stretch.
  20. DJL44
    No. Everyone has qualified for the playoffs in the last 5 seasons except the Nationals, Rockies, Angels and Pirates. The Nationals won it all in 2019. The Angels and Rockies are trying but they're just really bad at it. Pittsburgh is the only team in baseball who never tries.
  21. DJL44
    Pittsburgh is 1/30 of the teams in MLB, not 1/3.
  22. DJL44
    This team's defense is at the bottom of the league. Offense is not their only problem. That said, there are other places to add defense that are more important than 1B.
  23. DJL44
    The Twins probably need a young catcher more than any other team in baseball. The Dodgers aren't done subtracting from their 40-man roster either. They still want to bring back Kershaw, for example. There are several players on the fringes of the Dodgers 40-man who are interesting (Andy Pages, James Outman, a half-dozen injured pitchers, a half-dozen AAA pitchers)
  24. DJL44
    Regression to the mean alert. Average MLB team records over their last 10 seasons if you want a fair comparison. The NFL consistently has less parity in a particular season with fewer interesting teams in any given year.
  25. DJL44
    The same NFL with 9 teams tanking for the first pick in the draft? The bad teams are worse in the NFL than they are in MLB.
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