Cris E

If Descalfini is healthy and effective then you don't need more rotation depth, because he's it. That's what depth looks like: injury risk, poor performance risk, possible upside if a few things line up, cheap and easily replaced if it doesn't work out. You're hoping for a #4/#5 arm here, not a playoff swingman. Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Decsalfini is backed by Varland, Festa, SWR, Canterino, Headrick and other lesser lights like Winder, Sands or Balazovic if we need more than ten starters. And that assumes no one at AA somehow cuts to the front of the line, however unlikely.

Um, Michael Taylor and former US Pres Zachary Taylor? Am I doing this right? No Merrifield because he's redundant with the similar Martin (who can also play SS and CF) and no Woodriff because he's going to get a much, much larger deal than we want to pay.

The 2023 rotation performed about as well as could be hoped last year. Grey pitched above his recent ability and health levels, Lopez improved and stayed healthy, Maeda came back from his elbow thing and stayed healthy. Most of the important parts of the bullpen stayed healthy. Mahle went down, Theilbar missed a bunch of time and Ryan learned a hard lesson about telling your training staff when you're not 100%. But the latter two were back for the playoffs. Expecting that level of health and performance is optimistic. Same with catcher injuries and youngsters like Lewis and Juilien starting their careers strong. For 2024 I expect we get less from the rotation and more from the bad side of 2023: Correa can finally drive a ball off that bad foot, Buxton's knee let's him dig in and swing hard, Paddack establishes himself in the rotation and Ryan either stays healthy or sits down and doesn't try to grind anything out. I hope Descalfini is available and decent when the others need to sit for a bit, and I expect a very quick hook in the pen whenever anyone needs a blow because that's why you have 645 relievers on the St Paul roster. BTW if we can get 130 games of actual health from two of Buxton, Correa and Lewis it'll make far more difference than a Hoskins or Phan signing. Soooo much hinges on health these days.

There's a lot of ambiguity surrounding what actually happened with Bauer, but there should be no doubt whatsoever about what would happen if a team signed him to any sort of deal. It's a PR nightmare and the backpedaling would cost money, time and credibility in the community. Why make this own-goal? This isn't the NFL where Ray Lewis can kill someone and be playing a year later. MLB fans are a little more sensitive to dirtbag players these days.

Agree with some of what @jorgenswest wrote above. Vasquez is valuable, he's just paid a little too much based on the market and means of when he was signed. He's also a cautionary tale for signing veterans for multiple years when you have kids coming up behind them (ie don't sign Soler or Hoskins to a multi-year contract in this org.) Farmer was signed before Correa, Lewis and Lee were options, and his option was picked up because our backup SS would otherwise have been either Castro or Lee, which are not adequate for a team with playoff ambitions. Fine for a day but not for the longer haul. Descalfini was only taken as rotation insurance, not a real part, and he came cheap and on a short deal so he's one year insurance. And if he's healthy he'll likely be better than SWR or Winder or Sands in 2024. Santana is that RH part time platoon bat for one year everyone has been asking about. He can also stand around at 1B and be the emergency catcher for an inning or two if Farmer gets hit by an asteroid. I wouldn't sign anyone with that money right now. I'd sit on it and see what ahppens this spring: who gets hurt, who regresses, and who becomes available. Plus it lets us make moves nearer the trade deadline.

Agree, and further I think as revenues (potentially) level off or start to drop I think the middle class veterans are the ones who are going to feel the pinch. The youth movement's been underway already, where cheap kids and superstars will get their money and opportunities, but the Kyle Farmers and Gio Urshelas are going to be pinched more and more in the future. The guys that can field. maybe hit some but only platoon or without power, or might have injury problems, they aren't going to be getting the deals they used to. Clever FO without money may still try to Lego a roster together with them, but in general they'll be far less valuable than cheap talent or top talent and that'll be most clearly exhibited in trade values.

I don't think they'll sign a RH corner OF unless he's really cheap and a good fit. They don't want to block any youngsters like ERod with muli-year deals and they do want to save some money for mid-year moves in case someone is terrible or gets hurt or unexpectedly becomes available. Brandon Woodruff, OTOH, is a star and will expect to be paid like one. There might be a one year discount for the recovery year, but only when paired with a 3-5 year deal for real money. He'll sign a 4/$75m somewhere.

Sorry, I was responding to your idea that Gordon still had a place on this roster. The ill-will was something someone else said but it sort of fit and I'm not always a disciplined writer when it comes to narrow, focused responses.

I'll add that the Twins should have guys playing more in 2024 than last year (even if they don't reach 140 games) because Lewis won't miss the first month. gimpy Polanco was swapped out for a full year of Julien, left field could be more settled than last year, and finally Buxton and Correa both look healthier than in 2023. OTOH we were lucky at catcher in 2023, 1B is still murky and Wallner is standing right where Miranda was a year ago, so we'll have to see how things play out. That said, I don't think this org puts much stock in the 140 game threshold, as Rocco is still thinking of how injuries shortened his career every time he fills out a lineup card. The FO thinks depth is cheaper and more reliable than ceiling and that's how they're moving. So is a lot of the league, so it's hardly a novel thought.

@rv78 Going "all in" and "commitment to winning" is simply a call for increased spending. There are Mets fans out there decrying Cohen for not going all in after he just got done spending like Brewster and got nothing for it. All In is just chucking the old shiny thing when it tarnishes and reaching for the next one. You sound like you should be a Yankees or Dodgers fan. Give it some consideration, you'll probably be happier out there. On the other hand you might not, because money really doesn't buy WS wins. Here's a list of the teams in the last ten WS and where their payrolls ranked. So money does not buy trophies because in the end the hot hand beats the rich hand. Look at that list: the top payroll only appears twice. You need guys who have won, who can win again, you need talent and you need health, and you need some guys to get hot and you need a little luck. There's some potato - potahto around your "performance" question, but there's no doubt whatsoever that depth wins a lot of playoff games. Last year the Rangers had ten guys get multiple ABs in the Series. In order of WS PAs we see that Semien played 162 regular season games, Carter played 23, Seager played 119, Jung played 122, Garver played 87, Heim played 131, Lowe had 161, Taveras had 143, Garcia played 148 and Jankowski 107. So that's four guys who played 140+ and that's a majority of guys who did not. 2023 ARI had five guys play 140+, 2022 HOU had five and 2022 PHI only had three. In 2021 ATL had six and HOU had five, which is higher than usual. (I'm skipping 2020 because the extra rest during that season reduced the importance of depth after a long season.) 2019 had WAS and HOU with four apiece. The Twins had no one last year with 140 games. That's a big deal, because it's really hard to reach the post-season without a lot of good players playing for six months. But in the right division in the right year it does happen. In the 1995 WS there were only three guys total with 140+ (Albert Belle, Fred McGriff and Chipper Jones) and those mid-90s ATL and CLE rosters were front-loaded with stars (and back-loaded with callow Mark Lemke and superannuated Tony Pena types.) But both went to the big dance because of depth. This year Altuve missed 50 games due to a broken arm (same as Buxton 2021 HBP) and Yordan Alvarez slammed his hand in a door and missed two months and Corey Seager is Byron Buxton and has only ever played 140 games three times in his nine years. Yet those teams won because they had backups ready to play and didn't have to roll out unripe rookies or well past sell-by veterans. Pitching matters of course, but pitchers always get hurt and depth there is a given. Last year alone MIL lost Woodruff, ATL lost Fried, Max Scherzer and Jacob DeGrom only threw 75 innings between them for TEX. The ultra-rich Dodgers didn't have anyone start 25 games and Kershaw led the staff with 131.1 inning, but they had depth to get to 100 wins. Depth.

Gordon got his shot and established his value before the team had Castro as a utility guy, before Farmer came as the real MI backup, and before Martin (and possibly others) started pushing up from behind him. There are better options now than his poor OBP and mediocre glove and the team had moved on. This likely isn't messaging or ill-will, it's the evolution of a roster and a guy getting squeezed by better and/or younger players. Rather than ill-will it's probably a favor to him to put him on a roster that needs more flexibility and places a higher value on his CF play. Best of luck Nick, you were fun to watch and a good interview which checks most of my boxes as a fan. (I'm a sucker for speed doubles, what can I say?)

So wait, fewer better guys, but no one that gets injured? Got it. Just staple that list to the end of the thread and we'll come back and see how it looks in a few years. BTW, no contracts over $350m, so that locks out a lot of the guys you think are somehow available to a flyover team like MN. This is going to sound condescending, but it's meant well: just about everyone gets hurt. Who do you think will sign some huge deal and then stay healthy for the length of it? Specifically, what names? It doesn't happen or they cost everything and the contract clauses all run in the player's favor. All pitchers will miss time in any four year window, and frequently it's substantial time. Fielders are less often on the major stuff but very often on the little stuff that diminishes performance but lets them limp through a year like Kepler's busted toe in 2022 or Correa's foot or Pujols' plantar fascitis or Trout's back or Judge's whatever (I'm working from memory) or Otani's elbow or WS hero Cory Seagar who is already hurt before this season starts or Cody Bellinger's random sucking or Altuve's broken arm or Bryce Harper's arm and the list rolls on, year after year. By the time you know a guy is reliable and excellent he's either locked up by his first team or getting older and breaking down. They want the most money just as they enter the time when their parts aren't young anymore, and for the few Soto guys the contract IS the sort that hampers team options. I think the Twins do OK with injured players when they know they are fragile. Have you read the Buxton deal? They are paying him something like half of what he'd make if he could be counted on for 140 games a year. Correa is getting more money, but after the fifth year (age 33) he has to perform to lock in those (diminishing) dollars at the back end, and he has to do it every year. If he doesn't have a starter's number of plate appearances (eg 575 in 2029) or finish in the top 5 for major awards then he's out on the market at age 34-37 coming off a bad year. We can sign him for less or be done with him, but he's only here past age 33 if we want to play him 500+ PAs a year, so not necessarily a burden. That's how to write a contract for an injured guy. They've also done a couple of recovery year contracts for Tommy John pitchers (Pineda, Paddack, maybe others) where they sign him for nominal money for the recovery year and get the first year back at a discount. These unicorns that make top dollar and perform to that level and don't get hurt, they don't change teams in their 20s very often. It's why the Soto deal was so large, why trading Betts was so bizarre for a wealthy team like BOS, and why teams with money write such absurd deals to get these guys. How many of those Freddie Freeman $162m contracts to 32 year olds (a guy who missed real time when he was 25 and 27 BTW) were you clamoring for? I would have signed that one in a minute, but he wouldn't have come to MN for that money, he wants to win. So keep in mind that this is harder than you think, that players who aren't "that way" are rare and expensive and not often available. The next time you wave your arms around like this be certain to include a few names and contract values with the rant. It'll slow you down and make you appreciate the challenge in putting a roster together.

The chaos in revenue streams is real, and wide-spread. Even if they know they only had to take a 15% haircut for this year there's still no certainty about 2025 and beyond, Chances are good that cable money will be even lower then so the next deal they get from Diamond could be lower still. This question is still open for the long term, and it's not clear that streaming money will completely fill that gap. I don't expect any answer for this until they open up the CBA after the 2026 season and work it out then, and that could be very messy. Consider this: no one has suggested a model that will replace all the lost cable money that's even remotely realistic. The best bet might be expansion fees, but that's a one-time cash infusion. Where is this magic 10% a year money coming from? Also, the deals people want to sign are mostly not for a single season, so they extend into these coming years of confusion. On top of that you need to start extending some guys like Ryan, Duran, Jax et al and you'll want to save some headroom for them on the 2026 payroll. Listen I know that it's frustrating to watch, but give credit to Joe Pohlad for the risks he's taken in the past year or two. They didn't predict spending that much in 2023, but they did it even though they were in the last year of their TV deal, even as this money question was not getting answered, even as their entire roster went on the DL in 2022. When Correa was available they wrote the check. They wrote the check for Buxton. They traded cheap young players to get expensive starting pitchers. It's not Carl Pohlad running this team anymore, so acknowledge the progress before dragging out your old Calvin Griffith hair shirt. The lamentations are tired.

I was pretty sure I had them right and then I see this. The streams were crossed and now I'm wrecked again.

Plus the move to high A is when pitchers start improving too. You get some separation between the throwers and the pitchers, and guys are better able to exploit poor plate discipline. He'll be seeing better arms and need to lay off the stuff that can't be driven, so I hope he's a guy that can learn. Perhaps our minor league staff learned their lesson with leaving Arreaz alone, and messing up Martin before leaving him alone, but the fact is it's not a lock that everyone makes that jump to plate discipline and a lot is rooted in a guy's willingness to listen and change. I don;t know anything about this guy, but I'm with @Doctor Gast and think he's as ranked about high as he'll ever be, so maybe move him on for something we need if any other org falls in love with him.

Regarding Nick Gordon's achievements to date, his fielding numbers weren't great in 2022 and he doesn't have the supporting seasons to indicate that his 111 OPS+ that year wasn't an outlier. In his entire minor league career he only hit over .300 once (in 21 games in the AFL in 2016), he has only reached .350 OBP at one stop (.381 in 42 AA games in 2018) and in his big 2022 MLB season his BABIP was .340 which was well over the league average. And honestly there's no reason to project it to come in above the MLB average of .306 for this year. In short, he'll have the spring to prove his glove still plays around the diamond and that his doubles power can offset his weak OBP skills. It may or may not get him in the lineup at Target Field, but as an audition for other teams he'll probably prove he's useful to someone.

Kirilloff will be fine if he's healthy, or he won't. It's on him, as he's got a clear open window to step up and claim his spot. Many guys never get a chance as clean as this one, so I hope he's ready. I could easily see the FO trading Gordon to an org that is thin in CF for a bag of balls and lunch money (which is to say a 19 year old "live arm".) It'll be a sign of how great an organization we are and how much we care for our guys, and free agents will talk about it next winter when they sign $2.0m deals to be part of this clubhouse. Miranda won't be traded even if he spends the whole year in St Paul. We don't have many RH bats near ready in the org and he can use this season to reset as a 1B/OF/DH to be ready when Santana leaves or fails or whatever. He has been the type of guy they like so he only needs to return to level after injury, and that's easy to imagine happening this year. Larnach is the one I have trouble seeing a future for. They'll certainly leave him in St Paul to work on things, but ERod is coming and other callow youth are on his heels. Even if there are injuries Martin has passed him for the next shot at a long term gig in the outfield. So unless he figures out a lot this year and hits the living bejesus out of the ball there's a real and frightening chance he's going to be on the Balakvoizspelling career path in a couple years.

Miranda and Gordon are both redundant on this 2024 roster (see Castro and Santana) so while they could make the squad I see Miranda's option as a ticket to St Paul. Similarly I believe Martin starts the season in St Paul to work on defensive consistency and doubles power and stays there until Buxton goes on the DL. Gordon's season in the sun came before they had Castro on hand, so I really see his opportunity coming in ST, not the regular season. So that kind of means the decision rests on the balance between how well Miranda plays and how easily they think they could get Gordon through waivers. I'm skeptical that other teams see Gordon as much more than, say, a less proven Bubba Thompson with a suspect glove in CF and no power to warrant any time in a corner OF spot. EDIT: Martin? Oh yeah, I should mention him. He's going to be a fine CF or utility guy. Maybe not great, but good enough to leave in the leadoff spot for a few years until someone takes it away from him. He'll see a bunch of pitches and run around on the bases and play defense where the openings appear. By June he should be here.

Some thoughts: There's a substantial chance that DeSclafani is not ready on April 1 and he stays on the DL or in St Paul to open the year, and at that point he'd need to pitch his way onto the 26 man. Great if he can, but better if he can't because it means someone else is throwing well with the big club. I am still curious to see how they clear spots on the 40 man to accommodate the new faces. Perhaps they do make a trade to shuffle the deck. It would certainly be good for guys like Gordon that are buried, but it could change where we see depth and risk. (Edit: here I am implying Nick gets traded, not that we somehow rid ourselves of enough 2B or CF depth that he becomes relevant.) Playoffs can be won with OK starters that make no mistakes and a huge pen that can defend small leads. Examples abound, but no matter how good the pitchers look on paper they have to avoid giving up multiple runs and the offense has to put some runs on the board. Modern playoffs don't require a ten inning Jack Morris shutout, just a solid outing that keeps one of the best teams in the game mostly off the board so your guys can stay within striking distance. These days it's high risk game of velocity and home runs, not 1968.

(duplicate post)

Gah, I wish people would stop looking at BBTV for anything. Look at that from any angle other than MIN: Miranda isn't very young and has had one decent year and injury problems, DeAndrade is a single A toolbox and ranked well outside our top ten, Theilbar is straight up old and was running out of gas at the end of last year after missing May and June with an injury, and Luis Castillo is a stud being paid something near or below market rate. You might be able to pick up an average but injured #4 SP like Desclafani as a salary dump, but not a valuable player and certainly not a week after they already salary dumped from their starting pitching depth. And this whole discussion assumes that Snell outperforms the cheaper Castillo over the short or long term, which is not a given. BBTV is a plague.

Santana is here in a Gallo role to provide a floor under the roster they want to run out there. Last year they added Gallo and MAT because they had concerns about Buxton playing CF, their lack of power hitting, if any of the young corner guys were going to pan out, and a serious goal to never feature an outfield as bad as what disgraced Target Field in 2022. This year it appears they are not as concerned about CF but they do want a safety net under Kirilloff and Miranda at 1B. Santana isn't great but he's going to provide a good glove and unterrible hitting in the event that Kirilloff isn't ready and Miranda was a comet. And just to be clear I liked the Gallo signing last year because I too was worried that the 1B and CF and LF plans looked weak and wasn't too sold on Kepler's backups either. Solano was eventually signed but there was no guarantee he was going to do any better than Santana will this year. At any rate Gallo did do what was asked on defense and was kept in the batting order far past the point where he should have been. Good on Falvine for signing him, good on Joey for his glove and effort, frown on Rocco and Falvine for his playing time after Father's Day. For 2024 I want a guy in hand that can hit lefties, play a decent 1B and who won't act like a child if the kids do step up and claim the playing time. Gallo only did some of that last year and Carlos can probably beat his performance. I just want Rocco to learn from his experience so this can turn out better than last time.

Yeah, but no. For every time some guy comes out of nowhere to stomp you in the playoffs you have another case of Berrios getting pulled in the fifth. It all averages out in the end, and even if it doesn't you kind of don't care what the other guy does as long as the guy you get does what he's supposed to.

I don't think the Braves have the rotation depth to get rid of Fried and still get deep into the playoffs. If you remove him that puts a 1.0 WAR guy in the #5 spot (and even less lining up behind him in AAA) and assumes Chris Sale is going to fill a spot all year without injury and 400 year old Charlie Morton doesn't die in his sleep. In the NL East that's not going to hold up through Halloween. They can;t go that light in the rotation regardless of cost.

Always? Do you hear yourself? 2022 was only 18 months ago.