Cris E

@USAFChief If there's no market to trade Polo for a good starting pitcher then the rest is not filler, it's what is available. Bullpen arms and prospects have value and when that's all that's on the shelves and you have to trade then you get the best deal possible. Polanco was great for MN, but the market for $10.5m oft-injured 2B with declining range is not good. In this trade they filled other needs and stacked some financial shenanigans with a flyer on a SP at the back end to balance the money. To repeat: Descalfani has not been good since he signed that large contract after 2021. The Giants' rotation was in tatters when they moved him, the Mariners had him penciled in for long relief and then he came here with no expectation of anything more than fighting for a #5 spot. He's just another bit of rag picking, not a hopeful, future-looking acquisition like Paddack or Mahle.

Also, many of the trades made the past two years were done as a direct response to the horrible lessons of 2022. Since that year Falvey et al always include a lot of "floor" guys on the roster to match up with any place we might be counting on the young or infirm to perform. Margot is here as Buxton's caddy. Santana is here in case Kirrilloff didn't step up this year. Descalfani was here in case Louie and SWR and Festa fell down. Farmer was resigned in case Correa breaks. They are still hoping Martin can be a big league CF, that Lee can step into an MLB infield job soon, that Lewis stays healthy and AK hits and Larnach figures things out and Wallner doesn't regress too badly, but they put in a floor beneath the kids in case good things don't happen. Margot is not here as a DH, though he played a game there. Santana and Kirilloff will swap around a lot as things settle out. Descalfani only got included on the roster because of the options situation, not because he was expected to hold the job. Looked at through the lens of larger roster philosophy rather than simplistic rotissarie games these usually make sense and you can tell when they reached for A Guy and when they were trying for something else. Mahle was A Guy and it didn't work. DeScalfani was not and the payroll is doing what they expected even if the pitching is not.

Seattle was trying to cut salary too, so we had to take DeScalfani as a throw-in to balance the money. The Mariners took on 10.5 and sent back 12 + 1.25 + $4m cash from SFG and $4m cash of their own. The net was them paying $2m plus a couple prospects for a guy to be a big part of their offense. Falvey did not act alone, and Seattle's position has to be counted as well. Viewed that way it really looks like no one in any of the three organizations Decsalfani's been with in the past two months believed he was a viable MLB starter because of his terrible health record, and now they are each paying a third of his salary to balance various trades over the winter.

The Twins have a lot of guys coming along that are going to require raises in the next year or two: Ryan, Ober, Duran, Lewis, Jeffers, Jax maybe, It's fun when your young roster has success, but the day comes quickly when they have to be paid, and some of these guys are going to be expensive.

They were utterly different animals than Montgomery. There is no one that would confuse very late-career guys like that with a guy who just posted a 138 ERA+ and is riding a string of four years not missing a start. He's available not because of his borderline value, but because he's too valuable and no one wants to pay him. I'd take a Montgomery signing right now. Just give him a bunch of minor league innings in FL or St Paul until he's strong and then let him fine tune in the majors. We have an easy division again this year so if he could right himself by June there'd be plenty of time to crawl out of any hole his early starts might put us in. Alas, I would not expect the money thing to work out so this is just killing time until Opening Day.

PIneda was signed while recovering from TJ surgery and then threw 282 innings of sub-4.00 ERA ball in 53 starts for the Twins in 2019-21. That was the exact same type of deal that Paddack was signed to and you're just going to have to wait a few months to see how it turns out. Sonny Grey was on the DL three separate times in 2021 and then we picked him up and babied him through 2022 and he still hit the DL four times. You can't just hand-wave that away just because it wasn't a twelve month elbow recovery. You want to pretend he was healthy or something because he was inconvenient to your argument, but that's no good: Grey threw only 135 and 119 innings in 2021 and 2022. The 50 innings he missed each of those years had to be covered by someone significantly worse than him. Injuries are not binary: Grey was both good and unavailable those years and we felt having as much of him as possible was better than a worse healthy guy. Meanwhile Mahle had a sore arm that might have been nothing or might have been Pineda, It turned out to be a Pineda elbow, but they didn't re-sign him through the TJ process for some reason, which I feel was a mistake. If you are buying despite the risks then you accept the injuries and stay the course with the truly talented guys until they prove they really can't stay healthy. I think Mahle is going to be pretty good and we should have easily been there at 2/$22m. I think we agree that not all injuries are created equal, but I (and I think the Twins front office) believe elbows are pretty simple these days, so if you can get a deal on the recovery years then those guys can be solid investments. We took a flyer on Grey and it worked. We took on Maeda and it worked half way. We tried Mahle and bailed before it worked and we'll have to see how he turns out in Texas to know the final truth. Descalfani has never had a solid healthy stretch and was passed around several times last season because no one expected him to perform. We added him to the bottom of the list in case he was OK, not as a building block. Paddack was Pineda and could be very good. I'm not sure who you think we should have picked up last winter, but right now we have the makings of a very good staff. Some were injury dice rolls and some were pickups and others were home grown, but I think mixing in some injured guys has been fruitful for us enough of the time for it to remain a viable strategy. It seems we disagree.

I wonder if he just said he'd cover the debts without knowing how bad things were. Saying "Sure, I can cover you" is easy when you have $40m in your wallet and this guy is probably in for what, $15k? $50k? That would explain why he was issued so much credit on an interpreter's salary. I'm sure the payment schedule will come out and this point will be illuminated eventually.

I asked what is a reasonable threshold to prove someone can hit lefties or not. You seem to think 42 is adequate and others think you need more. I think he should get until may and then we can see if it's just terrible or getting better. Maybe AAA is the right place to work on it or most likely he's slugging the heck out of right handed pitching and they just pinch hit for him situationally. Also, 17 strikeouts in 46 PA is still over a third, and he wasn't that great last spring.. EDLC is another one with a lot to prove this year. He hit only .495 against lefties in 122 PAs and he wasn't that good after his first month, so they're going to want to see more than 5 extra base hits to leave him at SS once McLain returns.

Oh that poor man. He's only making $2m this year so losing $4.5 has to leave him destitute. I hope he's saved some money from early in his career so he's got a place to live.... /s Also, the interpreter went to high school in California so I don't know if deportation is in the cards. But I do believe he could be looking at some prison time. And I tend to believe, absent any actual facts, that his first story of Ohtani helping him out is likely the true one and his recanting and implying theft is just a clumsy attempt to create some space between Ohtani and the gamblers.

How many ABs at .447 (Julien ) or .481 (Wallner) will make you happy with the opportunities they receive? Both will be starting the season in MN and probably seeing more chances against lefties this year, but when do you think it's enough? Serious question, because late in games you know that the league already knows how to handle these guys. They are both young, they are both smart and hard-working, but they both have a serious problem that they need to solve. If they end up two years from now with 400 AB against lefties and show an OPS around .600 (.180,/.250/.350) you going to call that a win or a platoon?

Well that's silly. Gallo is in his 30s and Wallner has only had a few hundred MLB at bats. He's young and the league is adjusting to him so he's got to make a countermove now. So far this spring it hasn't happened, but he's got some time. His future lies somewhere between your doom and gloom and @Riverbrian letting him go until whenever. I'm in the middle: he's earned a chance to keep the job, but it's clear he's got some improvements to make.

Sonny Grey was not a healthy pitcher, and just because he wasn't on the DL when we signed him does nothing to change that. September 20, 2022 Minnesota Twins placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list. June 2, 2022 Minnesota Twins placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 15-day injured list retroactive to May 30, 2022. April 17, 2022 Minnesota Twins placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list. March 13, 2022 Minnesota Twins placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list. July 8, 2021 Cincinnati Reds placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list. June 9, 2021 Cincinnati Reds placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list. April 1, 2021 Cincinnati Reds placed P Sonny Gray on the 10 day disabled list. September 13, 2020 Cincinnati Reds placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list retroactive to September 11, 2020. April 1, 2017 Oakland Athletics placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day disabled list retroactive to March 30, 2017. August 7, 2016 Oakland Athletics placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 15-day disabled list. May 22, 2016 Oakland Athletics placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 21, 2016. Maeda was similar with four DL trips in 2017-19, but Mahle between 2017-2122 was on the Reds DL once in 2019 and again in 2022. As a strategy it mostly worked with Grey and Maeda but it didn't with Mahle, But I got to tell you, this is not an unusual plan. Texas won the WS last year with a rotation of injured pickups DeGrom (ha), Scherzer (8 DL trips), Eovaldi (9 trips), Heaney (7 trips) and Montgomery (4 trips including a TJ surgery). It doesn't always work, but it can, especially if you continue to develop pitching on your own. You're probably hoping the Twins develop what PHI, HOU, AZ and ATL have been doing the past few years, where they have largely young, homegrown pitching staffs that stay healthy. it certainly looks awesome, but it's really hard to sustain. After this year the Braves are probably going to let Fried (10 Dl trips) walk, and they are still counting on Charlie Morton (12 maybe?) and they had to bring in Chris Sale (1000 DL trips since 2016) to carry their success forward. The Dodgers have always been good at cranking out solid to excellent pitchers, though they do get hurt a lot (current 60 day DL includes Buehuler (5 Dl trips) Kershaw (14), Golsolin (6) and May (5) and when they do get hurt the team adds from outside, recently picking up Glasnow (5 trips) and Lynn (6 trips, plus three bereavement trips in the last couple years,) The common trait those teams have is that once they identify a reliable pitcher they sign him and keep him. If you want to complain about the Twins' front office then complain about them letting Berrios walk. But don't be too loud, as he's been kind of a mixed bag at the new $20m rate. And that gets to the heart of the acquisition strategy: they're only available if they're flawed or crazy expensive. And even the expensive ones are often flawed. But you still have to dip into that well to compete. With how hard these guys throw today they will get hurt and you will need a long and deep roster to get through a season. Any time you have a surplus of 2B or whatever you are almost obliged to trade them for arms. The closer players are to the majors the less uncertain they are, so you need to mix in both MLB/AAA guys and the 19 year olds to keep a solid stream going. I think they are doing that in MN, so grabbing Mahle at a high cost and Paddack at a lower cost and Ryan for a departing Nelson Cruz all show good sense even if they didn't all work out. I suppose you'd only trade for healthy pitchers? That means you're paying more and the risk is greater if/when they don't turn out. Everyone was screaming for Miami's Cabrera if we couldn't afford Luzardo, but Luzardo has had his own injury history and Cabrera is nursing a sore shoulder today. Where are these available young healthy stars and how many of our players are you farming out to get them? We had great results last year doing things this way, so your answer has to clear a high bar.

I'm not the one advocating for him to go down, I'm simply pointing out that he's hardly the second best LF in baseball. He's got stuff to prove and he's not a sure thing until he proves he belongs. Miranda was a sure thing too, if you recall, and before you point out injury vs talent I'll point out the real issue is known vs unknown. It may be that Miranda just got hurt or he's another Kirilloff, and similarly we have to see if Wallner is Tom Brunansky or he perhaps devolves into a platoon player. Right now he's probably earned a shot at showing his value at the MLB level, similar to Miranda last year. But if he struggles he won't get anything like the amount of rope Kepler got last year. It's early for him.

(duplicate)

Where would they look nice? We're already parking Lee in St Paul, Julien is already posing some serious Hide The Glove questions and you think three more sketchy gloved 2b/3b would find playing time? Their value was determined to be higher as trade chips than as players and they were moved. The strategy of trading from excess to bring in value is fine. Sonny Grey only had a couple full healthy seasons since 2016 before last year's performance and he's already hurt this spring in STL. Maybe we were lucky, or maybe you have to look at trades in the aggregate and not freak out over every injury. What did you say when Pineda performed well after we signed his broken arm in 2018? Maeda had a long history of breaking down as a starter and he held together pretty good for us. If Paddack pitches well this year will you come back and say this was smart? You never know about injuries (except when you know: Descafani was a throw in because he's rarely healthy.) You try a bunch of stuff and see what pans out. The real talent is being able to walk away from the Matt Shoemaker and Joey Gallo experiments before they wreck your season, and as an organization we're still working on that.

The other Lopez, the reliever from BAL.

Walner is hardly an established big leaguer and the chances for him to backslide are very real. There was a lot of junk hidden in his 2023 line that should provide him things to work on. Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHP 68 208 171 39 48 10 1 12 38 2 1 25 65 .281 .409 .561 .970 96 1 12 0 0 1 3 .383 121 164 vs LHP 27 46 42 3 5 1 0 2 3 0 0 3 15 .119 .196 .286 .481 12 0 1 0 0 0 0 .120 9 29 1. He can't hit lefties. That's a .481 OPS against lefties, and that was inflated by a HBP. That's a platoon player until he proves he can hit same side. 2. His eye wasn't that good. Call it SSS, but if you pull his 13 HBP from last season his OBP drops to .336 overall. 3. @LA VIkes Fanhit it squarely on the last page: "....he hit .208 in August, .209 in July, rebounded in September (always a tough projection month given the number of ABs against bad teams' AAA pitching), and went 0-8 in the playoffs with 5 SOs. He's 2-35 in ST. " That .925 September OPS was hugely inflated by a four game series in Chicago where he went 7-13. If you remove those games (I know...) that great month dropped to .859. These are all very thin slices to be basing serious criticism on, but that's exactly why they can't be counted on for positive conclusions either. He had a nice first year but now he's got to show that he can adjust to what the league is throwing at him. So far he's streaky, gets hit by a lot of pitches and destroys what he reaches. That's a great foundation to build on, but the history of baseball is littered with the names of quick starts that couldn't adjust. Good luck Matt, we're all pulling for you.

They are building for the possibilities that Kiriloff improves (hooray and Santana sees more DH time) or that he gets injured again (and Santana plays a lot) or that he slowly stumbles along and they have to wait months while he figures things out and Rocco platoons and all that. These things evolve and are not set in stone right now.

This roster is a child of the calamitous 2022 season. The front office was scarred by that experience and builds conservatively to ensure it cannot happen again. That means making sure there are no holes. Santana is a floor guy, not a ceiling guy. He's there to ensure there's a competent glove and average bat on hand in case Kirilloff doesn't pan out. With good luck he fills the Solano seat and with bad luck he's Gallo. It's also relevant to point out that Rocco has flat out said Santana and Kirilloff are not necessarily sharing a spot, and that there will be days when one is at 1B and the other at DH. That's where Santana's clearly superior glove comes into play. Don't over simplify, and don't strive for clarity where there shouldn't be any. Sometime there is just surplus and they work through it, like in the case of Solano last year. Between Farmer and Castro he wasn't even the second utility guy, but he played all over the place. Not everything fits into nice boxes. Relax and enjoy the games.

Two things: Miller is an excellent defender, which is valuable, and not much of a hitter, which makes him less so. He's only 21 this year so he's unlikely to be ready for a substantial role in the majors before 2026 or 2027. There are other good SS prospects in the system that are ranked above him and also several years out, and that makes him a flawed piece for the future, which is to say trade bait. And that's fine. Between Correa, Lee and Lewis (and Farmer and Castro) there's little need for a young SS in the next 2-3 years, so having a ready glove at AA isn't that important to this organization. If Correa's foot falls off and Lee gets fat and Lewis blows his knee out again we can play Farmer or Castro for a year and figure things out from there. Maybe DaAndrade will be ready or Martin can fill in or we extend Castro. Whatever, there's no guarantee that Miller will be a better option then. This trade is moving a 2027 piece in order to compete while the window is open. Noah Miller is exactly the guy to trade in that moment. Meanwhile the essay that triggered this has little to do with Miller, it's about people complaining that they don't root for the Yankees or Dodgers. We've been over this before: MN has middle-rank money and spends at about that level. The old Pohlad holding the purse had an aversion to large and long contracts, but this new Pohlad has shown himself more amenable to big moves. He took some chances in the recent past (Buxton, Correa) and then he backed down from that big payroll as the money situation got muddled, but there's no evidence that this is a Nutting-like hibernation. This interview simply said No More Huge Contracts At This Time and everyone lost their minds. That's childish and shows some serious object permanence issues. Just because the big dollars vanished today doesn't mean they're gone, it means that we've got a decent lineup and the wallet went back into the pocket. He could pull it out later and you might get a tater tot when you least expect it. Does anyone recall the high expectations that we were going to pick up Correa or Grey? You better say no, because those deals came out of nowhere and everyone celebrated. Surprise tater tots are awesome, but remember that what makes them great is that they aren't the standard, they're treats. MN has never been a big free agent destination, and recent changes haven't moved that needle a lot. In fact until the larger revenue model is resolved (probably after 2026 in the next CBA) there's little chance that we'll choose someone else's stars over our young emerging stars. The next few big dollar deals this front office will sign will go to guys you already know: Lewis, Ryan, Ober, Duran rather than 30-somethings from other organizations.

Agreed. I'm sexy with a bad shoulder, so that job is filled.

Last June I wrote this on this site: Several of those guys righted things and finished OK, but none were close to being in the running for a Cy Young. Montgomery and Snell were very good in 2023, but neither feel like the solid foundational guys you build a roster around at the price they're holding out for. Belinger and Chapman are even less likely to be that guy. When Pohlad says we're not signing expensive free agents he's mostly saying we're not signing these expensive free agents. I believe not spending now means they can make a move later in the year if things change, but p*ssing away a bunch of money on a low leverage name like JD Martinez might mean we can;t.

Hey @CCHOF5yearstoolate Not trying to be argumentative, but why did a .7 increase in Vert Movement for the splitter get a green but a 1.2 increase for the fastball get a red?

Yeah, but talk about going commando, you could be Full Scotsman under a uni like that! How freeing would that be?

Miranda and Larnach are around to get healthy and prove they can hit. Period. Nothing else matters until that's settled, so you can just leave them out of the plans until March, when that question is answered and we're closer to actually establishing the lineup card. LF is Wallner followed by poor second choices. If there's a major injury to Walner or Kepler I'd expect Martin to get the long term sub job so he can be up to spell Buxton as well.