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Good piece. The thing this latest news calls out is the instability of everything and how little time MLB has to assemble a far-reaching plan to replace the RSN revenue model. There's a chance that Amazon funding a good enough outlet for RSN streaming will blow up any chance MLB has of making their offering good enough to displace it. If a bunch of teams start opting for 50% of what they got before and MLB hasn't got a wide enough list of games to sell who will pay for their offering at, say, $25 if Prime can get it for you at $20? So much uncertainty, so little time, and not enough teams in trouble to slow the whole mess down. All but three teams have 2024 deals, right? Gonna be an interesting couple weeks...

@JD-TWINS I was with you until you claimed Gordon would head north with the varsity because he'd been a first rounder. We gots lots of those, but what we need are ball players and Gordon will need to hit to earn the big uniform. In fact Larnach and Martin and Miranda and Gordon will all be working to show they can hit in 2024, and the rest of the roster will be doing the same. We've got a bunch of guys that had bad years (Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, half of Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff) and a bunch of others that showed one good year (Lewis, Julien, Castro, Wallner) and they all need to prove where their true level is. The division is a wasteland, so a clear path to the playoffs is open as long as they can play up to their potential talent, stay healthy and not get distracted. Draft pick history won't carry much water when there's a playoff spot on the line.

It's more than that, because that was true last year and they were still throwing cash around like drunken sailors. The difference this year is the uncertainty around so many teams' revenues. MLB has to get a broadcast plan out there in the next few weeks, or at least route the bones of what the plan will be to the owners, so that they can nail down their budgets and start making some plans. There are too many good players on the sidelines, and too many holes on teams that should be spending money to have things stagnate much longer. Moves will be made.

And this doesn't address the annual Who will be the reclamation find of the year? Last year it was Stewart, and this year's candidates include Staumont, Jenson and Stewart (who still has to prove that last year wasn't a fluke.) So there are more options than just these guys to populate the middle innings.

We haven't added the Solano (2/21/23) and Taylor (1/23/23) and Castro (12/20/22) and Gallo (12/16/22) vet augmentation to the roster for 2024 yet, and that's an important part of solidifying things to roll into the regular season. These guys aren't necessarily intended to play a lot of innings, but they really help keep the lights on and the momentum moving downhill when starters inevitably get hurt. We're talking about CF, the RH hitting corner guy and maybe an SP and another bullpen arm or two, but to date they've really only picked through the relief rag bin (Jensen, Staumont, Alexy.) In the past these guys were mostly added late in the winter, and that seems to be a few weeks behind schedule this year because of a slow market in general and the unsettled budget problem in MIN particularly. but there's plenty of time to make a trade: MAT came to MIN on Jan 23 last year, Pablo Lopez on Jan 20 and Correa on Jan 11 so we're still well within that time frame. It's way too early to complain or get too comfortable with the roster as it stands because we've never been ready to go a month before spring training. It's not how things have ever worked, so let it play out a bit.

I agree Ryan and Ober are solid MLB starters, so adding a young star or two to the current set really lines up the Twins for a bright future. I'd reach to get a Luzardo and also try for one more Miller/Woo/Keller type to fill in the back of the rotation to ensure we keep evolving as Grey and Maeda and such move on. But adding a short contract guy like Fried is pretty optimistic. If we don't have money to keep Polanco or Kepler then we're really going to face problems extending Fried followed by Ryan, Ober, Luzardo, etc. The notion of trading that much future for one year of a guy like Fried is not a solid plan unless we get to the World Series or we get an extension signed, and that extension not something ATL felt they could nail down. I don't see how MIN would do it when those deep and smart pockets could/would not. That's why I prefer spending more for more years of control (Luzardo over Fried) and especially so when it would cost a big chip like Lee. (Also, there's no way Luzardo comes to MIN for Polanco, $10m and Festa or SWR. Every team in MLB would make that deal in under ten minutes, which means that it's probably not enough. )

MLB did an excellent job creating BAM back when they needed to produce and stream their games. It's still out there, very capable and owned by Disney/ESPN, which provides an excellent foil to Amazon's interest in putting MLB games on Prime at some sort of discount. Bezos will get a chunk of games for this season to show what he can do and what he'll charge, but it'll just be a one year opportunity. In 2025, when most teams' rights are available again, I expect MLB to assemble most of those into a uniform package that can be sold in such a way as to remove most blackouts and attack the revenue collapse caused by the RSN demise. Whether it be Amazon, MLB.TV or parted out to someone else, that offering will be a big part of the new longer term revenue model for selling games to viewers. That's when we see the new world.

They have trouble if he gets hurt, and that's the serious risk here. It's not going to be a "3.85 ERA works for me, but 4.70 means you gotta go back to the pen." What's more likely is the ERA drifts up, Duran starts trying to throw 100 for four innings and blows his arm up. Anyone who has been a 100 MPH guy with a walkup video knows that's still an option in a tight spot, and he's going to constantly be tempted to go back there even knowing that it is not sustainable as a starter. Some April Wednesday in Detroit it'll be 48 degrees with a light rain falling and Javy Baez will be stepping in with two on in the fourth after a couple walks due to a bad curveball night. You tell me he's not going to reach straight back with 70 pitches on his arm and see if he can get out of it with speed? I foresee trouble.

That's right at the center of this, mostly in a bad way. The reason Bally didn't have streaming blackouts is because they were collecting on both ends, cable and online. The value of the cable rights was plummeting before due to cable-cutters, but if you try to sell them while someone else can offer streaming without blackouts it'll only be worth ad revenue. Letting streaming go to Amazon without strings guts cable revenue so you need Amazon to pay enough to cover that damage, or you need to sell the content to multiple outlets, which also diminishes its value. This is not simple, which is why I keep repeating that this is a smaller deal than they're implying and that it'll take another generation of streaming deals to actually step beyond the RSN money model. The real problem is the mess of old contracts and slapdash rights arrangements. Consolidating as many of those as possible and rebundling them to a more thoughtful set of channels might replace much of the cable money. But dumping things on Prime piecemeal stands no chance of making that money back, and the opportunity to sell and resell and package and repackage goes down to that single deal. There's no way Amazon pays top dollar without including the rights to NYY, LAD and the other top teams running their own networks, which is to say there's no way the have-nots trying to live on Amazon broadcast money will be on an even playing field. Lots will have to change to account for that before the next CBA and this deal is not it.

There are plenty of reasons that this is a terrible idea. 1. Will he be effective? 2. Will he be healthy? 3. Who will throw those missing 65 innings in the pen? Starting is very different from relieving beyond the simple matter of more innings. As a starter you give so many more looks at your stuff, and batters do get to take that into second or third shots at you later in the game. Consequently there are not a lot of starters who can get away with two pitches because it makes it much easier to sit on one or the other. Part of what made Duran so effective was dropping his bad secondary pitches and focusing on his best ones, but he'll need to dust them off and hope they're somehow better if he starts. Cutting back the innings was another reason he improved, as it let him air things out for higher velo but he'll need to dial that back as well if he wants to throw 80 pitches in a game. Tell me that consciously throwing slower while facing a lineup for the second time is going to be great. I have doubts he'll be a #2 pitcher for more than a few weeks if he even makes it out of spring training. But beyond pitching well he'd have to stay healthy, and that's another place where changing the repertoire could come back to haunt him. He's got a month to add conditioning to double his workload and somehow conjure up a new pitch or two. In an organization as injury-averse as Rocco's Twins I say they kill this notion with fire, immediately, then bury it. And if you take away his 65 innings from the pen you'll find that the other high end guys don't look as awesome when the game stretches out all the way to nine innings. Jax can close every once in a while, Stewart looks sharp when he's healthy, Theilbar is old enough to be Duran's dad and Varland can throw a hundred in the sixth, but when they all have to move up a spot it's not nearly as good a pen. Meanwhile in the best case they need to find another 90 innings to fill the Duran voids (65 IP plus 30 shorter starts.) We know what the Chris Archer 4 Inning Method does to a bullpen, so why do we think it'll be easier in 2024 without Duran to finish up? In conclusion, Libya is a land of contrasts and starting Duran is a bad idea. It's one thing for Zach Littel to give up on his dreams of being an average sixth inning guy to return to starting. @awmonahan hit that one on the head: little at risk if that deal goes south. Meanwhile the Twins were already looking a little short in the pen before this nonsense was resurrected. Leave Duran in a position where he'll be one of the best in the game and find someone else to grind out innings in the #4 spot. We've already got guys lined up for that, so why gamble that two transitions work out (Duran to rotation and Varland to pen) when you already have them in place, succeeding and close to succeeding? Madness I tell you. Winter is too long around here and you get all sorts of dumb ideas floating around to fill the idle evenings. Hang on until Feb and we'll be past these fever dreams.

@BK432 I think you're being too optimistic here. Take another look at that "Pricing and availability will be announced at a later date" and tell me Directv will just let MLB give away their games. Blackouts are very valuable and they're priced into a lot of other deals that are not open to renegotiation right now. You think you're the only one who sees this as a direct step towards dropping them and they don't want a piece of this? It's a complicated mess and I don't feel like enough parties are at the table right now to make a full change, so most of the stuff for 2024 will be similar to 2023.

There will not be overt collusion like there was in the past because it cost them a lot of money and left good talent off the field. Modern Totally Not Collusion might get a few guys some lower contracts but all will get an offer and all* will play. Or maybe after last season most will still see a raise because who is kidding who, there's tons of money out there. * All not meaning everyone of course because some people are sleaze and could damage club reputations so Bauer and many other domestic violence types are out but the DWI guys are OK and don't press me on this because it's complicated and/or maybe not thought out too well. Can I go now?

The Twins don't really have any catching depth. It's very unusual to only use two catchers in a year and our next man up is quite young so he should be playing every day, not sitting on the bench with the big club watching games. This is making things up to get clicks, not a serious trade. Hope you enjoy the traffic from Boston though.

“It will use its Prime Video platform to offer direct-to-consumer access to MLB, NBA and NHL games, including pre-game and post-game content of its various RSNs on a local basis.” So that Local Basis weaselry could mean just about anything. Are they keeping blackouts, selling this to fill in the blackouts in MLB.TV, only selling it locally or what? And for how long? Is this a new model or a one year bridge to a new MLB plan? The dollars don't indicate that this will replace the cable money, so it's can't be forever, but the equity stake by Amazon says they think there will be a longer term for this deal. This is a mess, but at least the Twins are in a spot to negotiate their own road out of it with a clear eye to what is coming from MLB next year. They may be the bellweather of that plan, so we'll have to wait to see what they sign for this season. Time's a wasting with only a month to spring training, so expect something in the next six weeks so they can show the ST games.

I see a couple likely things happening between now and April 1: 1. Someone will get hurt during spring training and this problem gets less acute. It's inevitable. 2. I can't see Gordon making the team without some serious injuries to clear a path. He's just not good enough to justify losing someone better. That said, Larnach and Miranda and Martin will all have to play their way on to the 26 man roster. But I do expect one of these three to take Gordon's spot. 3. The trade thing is real, so I expect Polanco to be on his way somewhere for pitching. That moves Julien to 2B with Farmer covering him against tough LH, plus it makes room for anyone else who forces their way onto the roster to get ABs in the DH spot. I do not expect Vazquez or Kepler to be moved because we're less able to fill those holes, plus the contracts are not as attractive to other teams. 4. The MAT role as CF caddy only needs to be filled by a part-time CF. It could be Castro I think, but then we have to hold on to Farmer to have a real UT to cover SS. I think that makes Martin a AAA CF until Buxton inevitably goes on the DL, at which point they decide if Castro or Martin is playing better and ready to take the job. I kind of think Martin would get it, but these are young players so it's just a guess how things will be going months down the line. 5. They are still short at least one bullpen arm. Maybe Alcala will suddenly appear out of the left field corn. Maybe one of the scrapheap arms will turn into Brock Stewart. Maybe Polanco turns into a solid LRP.

They had players who could run last year, but Rocco was playing conservatively to keep guys healthy. So I don't expect Byron or Royce to steal much at all, but I would expect to see more than just Castro allowed to run around out there. There were periods in 2023 where we didn't have a ton of infield depth while Polanco and Lewis were out and he was hesitant. Hopefully this year we might be free to run as much as the roster depth justifies. There are enough extra IF and OF that we can take a couple risks. (I still believe Rocco's experience with injury and illness during his playing days completely colors his roster management and directly leads to his concern with rest and recovery during the season.)

Regarding the original question, I think Lee would be as close to untouchable as I would ever admit in many organizations. But we signed Correa to a long-term contract so Lee won't reach his peak value as long as Carlos is starting at his best position. Lee hits very well for a SS but doesn't carry a big enough bat to stand out at other position, and if he has to play at 3B for the next three years he's not going to be as valuable as if he'd hit the same way at short. So if I'm the Twins this spring I might listen to offers with a little more open mind than if I were another team that had Brooks Lee coming into his own at AAA. That said, he's tremendously valuable so the only offers I'm entertaining are for similarly big pieces. Luzardo? Sure. Shane Bieber? No. Kirby? Before lunch. Woo? Slow down, have you seen Polanco's power numbers?

If MIA needs offense then they shouldn't be interested in debris like Gordon or unneeded pitching like Festa, They should be pushing for as many bats as they can fit into a trade like this. And if MIA is under financial pressure (like the Twins) then they don't want Kepler at $10m. They should be far more interested in cheaper options like Julien, Lee, Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin, etc. To move an inexpensive arm with remaining control they want to get more of the same in return, not the last year of Kepler's deal. And that still only addresses the Meyer v Kepler, Gordon, Festa part of the deal and glosses over how Luzardo would also be a fair throw-in. It's miles from serving the Marlins' needs.

Har. Kepler had a hot 12 weeks in the past three years, Gordon's "hot" season was barely league average and he's not an infielder anymore, nor is he young, and Festa has three games above AA ball and is only a 45 grade prospect. As a 50 grade prospect with a much better track record in the minors Meyer alone is almost worth those three, and Luzardo is miles ahead of him. This is a laughably bad trade even if Kepler was under team control for three more years at a decent cost.

I think the quantities might be similar, but the rate of serious injuries to pitchers is far, far higher so you need more of them.

Well there are percentages in the aggregate and then there are what individual hitters see. When there's no book on a hitter then the aggregate will apply, But when it's utterly clear that someone can only hit FB or never recognizes a change or whatever then professional pitchers will ruthlessly exploit that. Larnach may only ever face "tease" fastballs to try to get him to expand the zone until he demonstrates that he can hit the breaking stuff and offspeed pitches in the zone. If he, for example, slows down his bat and starts hitting everything away then the pitchers will adjust again and bust him up and in. It's a constant battle of adjustments and he still has to make his first changes to prove he belongs. I say he's still quite tradable. MN could take lottery ticket young arms or an injury-prone vet at little salary from a weaker team with playing time to let him work it out. PIT, OAK and COL all need talent without high costs and would happily take him in.

When the market heats up enough to increase the values of studs like Castillo and Alcanterra you know the Twins are not the only ones who will notice. There will be other great offers made for those stars that'll burn the eyebrows off any MN front office guy that hears them. It's fun to think our guys might be making one or two of those offers, and moving good players in recent years like Arreaz or the hitters CIN received gives some hope, but honestly my expectations are around grabbing a second tier guy in the Miller/Woo/Cabrera vein. Very good, very useful, but not a #1. EDIT: For the record I could see an overpay like Lee, Polanco and a major league ready pitcher like Varland/SWR for Luzardo. It seems like too much and not enough for both sides, so somehow fair.

Burnes is going to cost a fortune in free agency and MIN is not going to pay it, so it's a one year rental plus a QO draft pick. Brewers are trying to pack the pipeline so they can keep whipping out these youngsters like the Rays or Braves, so Polanco would only be there to sell tickets for the next couple years, not the centerpiece of a deal. Polanco and a talented kid (Festa OR Prielipp OR SWR if they like his famous resume) and a AAAA starter like Winder/Sands/Balazovic/WhoDoTheyLike to provide rotation insurance, especially now that they traded another SP earlier today. I mostly want to shop off the multi-year rack where Peralta or Woo or Miller or Luzardo or other big fish lurk. (Sorry about the metaphor wipeout.) Then I'd unwrap a Julien or Lee or Erod to get a stud. This payroll tweaking should mostly be a Farmer to the Giants, Vasquez and $$$ and Walner to Rays for Randy A sort of stuff.

Of course you take this deal, and you might even overpay to get this deal because the cost of good SP has risen so far the past few years. But that's exactly why SEA doesn't make the same deal. Now if they are having deeper money problems than they're letting on and they can get Snell to sign a deferred deal and they can move Castillo for a good return (Lee, Lewis, Erod - ouch but that's what we're talking here) then sure. But that's a lot of If.

Blech, just bite the bullet and trade for Burnes or Peralta. It'll cost and then you can play. I agree that Polanco fits well in MIL, but picking up inconsistent or injured guys or prospects doesn't fit *our* needs. We're trying to compete here, we are totally in our window of being in the playoffs and playing deep into October. If you trade Kepler then yes, you need more OF. But if you move Polanco you have his replacement on the roster and can think solely of the pitching, not the hole created.