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The Change Driving Max Kepler's Heater
Major League Ready replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It was really April and May that he was bad. June 6th was the day it started turning around. He had a wRC+of 122 for the rest of June and he just got better from that point forward. Ther league knows what he is doing now. It will be interesting if he can lay-off the 1st pitch out of the zone as the league adjusts to him punishing the 1st pitch. It's very sustainable if he can incorporate that kind of plate discipline. -
Good point. I would add that the Mets / Padres and the Yankees are individually spending roughly the equivalent of the Twins/Rays/Orioles combined. That said, the Twins will have an advantage because they have so many young/inexpensive players which has allowed them to extend Buxton / Lopez and sign Correa while still having room to fill a couple holes like a RH bat and a good BP arm.
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I don't think it's a reluctance to remove someone off the 40 man for Funderburk. It's that they are going to need 40-man space when they reinstate Buxton / Ryan and Kirilloff. Hopefully, Paddack and Stewart as well. Alcala? That's going to be a challenge, so they don't need to make it worse by adding Funderburk. Plus, I would assume they are looking at managing this to set-up for the playoff's. Ryan and perhaps Kuechel end up in the BP and best case scenario Paddack and Stewart are back. With a little luck where health is concerned, we are going to have a very deep pitching staff for the playoffs.
- 24 replies
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- yunior severino
- jake rucker
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It goes beyond he was having a bad year before having a huge week. He had a -1.1 WAR last year. The year before he had .7 WAR but did hit really well in the playoffs. He is also a poor defender, so I just don't understand how people look at the fact that he has been bad for a longtime while saying it was a mistake to let him go. It's an absolute refusal to look at the facts. They have not done well in terms of replacing him until now with Wallner but even the replacements have performed better than Rosario and the money was invested elsewhere. Last year the battle cry was we can't possibly let Correa go. Same story with Buxton. Most said Jeffers was not a starter. The majority said Kirilloff's wrist would be the end of him. Many said Wallner was too horrible on defense and that he would be exposed offensively at this level. Many said Julien could not replace Arraez. His offensive stats are equal and they are equally bad on defense. Of course, we gained a very good pitcher for the next 4 years. How about the predictions for Pagan here? As a group, we might be best served in being more open to change while also embracing trust in developing talent. BTW ... I thought Haniger would have been a good fit instead of Gallo. Well, he has absolutely sucked!
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They actually have a lot of back-up SSs. Lewis would be the 1st back-up. By June (hopefully) Lee or Lewis with Castro as a 3rd option. This team has all kinds of depth at 2B/3B/SS. I could go either way. One possibility is they start the season with Castro / Polanco / Gordon and Larnach or a RH OFer acquired over the winter. Polanco and Farmer do not make sense IMO. Injuries always provide plenty of opportunity for auditions. Lee / Severino / Prato / Martin / Miranda and Hellman will all hopefully continue to earn a shot. The other train of thought is to continue with the youth movement. That many guys, All with versatility. Most with options. That reduces the risk of letting Polanco go. Now, if they can get something decent in return, my on the fence point of view shifts significantly in favor of moving him. Spend the $10M on pitching or to contribute to landing a good RH OFer. Plus, get a decent prospect and this becomes a pretty easy decision for me. Of course, there is a quarter of a season left to influence this line of thinking.
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I have no problem with them keeping Polanco. However, he will not be a starter which changes how and if he fits into the mix. He is not all that versatile because we don't want him at SS and the SSS at 3B has not looked good. I would look at who are the 5 bench players as opposed to who are the 6 INfers because some of our utility players can play both IF and OF. Castro can play LF/CF/3B/2B/SS. Gordon can Play LF/CF/2B/SS Severino can play 1B/2B3B. Martin can play CF/LF/2B/SS Farmer can play 2B/3B/SS Miranda can play 3B/1B Lee is 3B/SS and perhaps 2B Prato could be in the mix as well playing 2B/3B. That's a lot of depth! Things really change once Lee is here. With lee at 3B I suspect Lewis plays 6 days a week in multiple positions. Polanco can really only provide depth at 2B. It makes no sense to play him anywhere else. With this is mind, is the $10M better spent on pitching and the ABs better invested in providing opportunity for Severino/Prato/Martin/Miranda? Tough call!
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A 1yr / $11M contract is a long way from the Dior store. It's a short blip with modest consequence. Spending $160M on Rodon to be injured has consequences. If Correa/Buxton do not bounce back and produce for a few years, that has serious consequences. Those signing were absolutely insisted upon by the majority here.
- 25 replies
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- josh winder
- cole sands
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I am hoping Paddack is back and pitching well enough to take one of those spots. Regardless, this is still a good illustration of the playoff roster. There simply won't be room on the playoff roster for the other arms people are mentioning, especially if Stewart and/or Paddack are back. Our playoff BP would look pretty darn good with Ryan/Paddack/Stewart and perhaps Kuechel added.
- 25 replies
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- josh winder
- cole sands
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IDK. He certainly is a good trade chip but I also see him as a great bench player. He can play 1B/2B/3B/DH and he is a switch hitter with power. That provides a lot of options. I think what could keep him here is our lack of depth at 1B. My guess is it's an even money bet that they hold on to Severino.
- 24 replies
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- yunior severino
- jake rucker
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I am perfectly willing to listen why your account of wRC+ is better reasoned than the folks at Fangraphs. Let's hear why wRC+ is a bad stat instead of insisting without any explanation. The "I don't give a rip without any explanation is let's just say not very credible. BTW ... We can also use OPS+ to show Jeffers is the far superior bat which I believe someone else mentioned. Of course, OPS+ does measure what happened.
- 93 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- joey gallo
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You didn't answer the question. What is deficient about wRC+? Here is what Fangraphs says about wRC+ If you’ve looking to measure a batter’s value using a cumulative statistic that credits a player for total production rather than on an at bat by at bat basis, then wRC is extremely useful. It combines the virtues of a weighted statistic like wOBA, which credits a hitter for how valuable each particular action truly is, with the virtues of counting stats that give players credit for producing at a given level over a great number of plate appearances. wRC isn’t necessarily better or worse than wRAA, it’s simply the same statistic communicated differently. Both provide you with a measure of how many runs a player contributed to his team with their bat. If you want a rate statistic for hitters that weights each offensive action and controls for league and park effects, wRC+ is for you. While wOBA is a huge step forward from stats like batting average and slugging percentage, it doesn’t credit hitters who play in difficult parks or deduct points for hitters who play in smaller ones. wRC+ brings all the virtues of wOBA plus two added benefits; park and league adjustments. A .400 wOBA at Coors is much less impressive than one at Petco, for example. Additionally, wOBA tracks with overall league offense, so you can’t use it to compare players of different eras very effectively. A .400 wOBA in 2000 is much less impressive than one in 2014, but a 140 wRC+ in 2000 means essentially the same thing in 2014. Here is another article entitled baseball statistics you should know. It states wRC+ is the single best way to quickly measure a player’s offensive production, better than batting average, OPS, or a triple slash line. That’s because wRC+ properly values everything a player can do at the plate, allowing you to compare across playing styles. At the end of the day, despite the difference in playing styles, a slapstick hitter and a slugger are trying to create runs, and wRC+ allows you to easily compare the production. Baseball stats you should know. What you don't understand is that wRC+ is calculated by combining a number of performance metrics and is therefore a far more comprehensive stat than most. BA is useless without OBP and slugging. RBI is useless without know the number of opportunities and conversion rate., etc.
- 93 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- joey gallo
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What's your objection with wRC+. BA is useless in comparison. BTW .... It's quite evident you can't be swayed by a logical argument so you probably don't need to tell anyone it's useless trying.
- 93 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- joey gallo
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Austin Martin would sure be great insurance for Buxton if this break out is for real. It's only been 18 games but since 7/25 he is hitting .393 with an even 500 OBP. His OPS is 1161. Wow! Hopefully, Buxton is back in CF next year and Martin joins Castro as part of a very good bench for the Twins.
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The statement is amazing. Let's highlight a couple average players while ignoring Julien / Walner / Lewis and Kirilloff who has yet to really prove himself because of injuries. For that matter, Jeffers was not all that proven either and last winter many were insisting he needed to be strictly a back-up. Let's further ignore that the other proven vets have mostly underperformed. Talk about selective recognition of the facts.
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I would not have to go that way. They could start Lewis at 3B and Lee/Severino/Prato get auditions. Where and how they are used is figured out over the course of the season. If Polanco is still here, in a bench role which is where he would be with Lewis at 3B, the ABs that could be used to audition young players won't be available. Now, if Lewis becomes an OFer, that changes the equation for a short while but eventually we would have the same situation with Lee starting at 3B. I would invest the dollars in pitching and the ABs in young players. Hopefully, by June 1 Lee is the 3B and in that scenario I like the idea of some combination of Castro / Martin / Severino / Larnach / Gordon and Prato on the bench.
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A couple questions come to mind when considering Polanco for 2024. Does Lewis remain at 3B or does he become a super utility? Do they believe Lee will be here by June 1st next year. Do they believe in Prato as a bench player at 2B/3B. Are they bringing Gordon back? I could see keeping Polanco instead of Farmer. They both don't fit on the roster IMO. I guess the other question is can they get something back in trade. With all the other options, he is expendable if they can get back a decent prospect. The best option could be to keep him until the trade deadline while working in Lee/Prato/Severino the early part of 24.
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Ronny Henriquez Deserves Some Attention
Major League Ready replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He has been brutal until these last 4 appearances. A promotion to the ML club after 8 good innings seems very premature.- 32 replies
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- ronny henriquez
- josh winder
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Souhan: Snooty Twins Fans Should Chill a Bit
Major League Ready replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Souhan has his head in the sand, Being better than 4 other teams is not a good measure of the quality of a given team. This is a mediocre team. Fans are not being snooty. They are being realists. The team being in 1st place does not negate the validity of various criticisms fans have of this team. -
You are assuming Miami would accept other assets that you would rather give up and that was very unlikely.
- 39 replies
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- edouard julien
- jorge polanco
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Where Do the Twins Fit All of the Youth
Major League Ready replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I just don't see it as Polanco VS Kepler. We have ample options for Polanco so the comparison is do I want some combination of Lewis / Lee / Prato / Severino / Miranda taking his place + $10M to spend on pitching or a RH OFer free agent. BTW ... I am a Polanco fan. He has been good for us and I have no problem with them keeping him until one of the others comes up and takes the spot as Julien has and Arraez before him.- 76 replies
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- royce lewis
- brooks lee
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