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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    People often take fangraphs "value" which is a calculation of WAR produced per dollar spent and interpret that as the players value which it is not. No team goes into a free agency negotiation under the premise 1 WAR is worth $8M. The reality is that so many free agents are an absoluter bust that the average production is far lower than what teams would determine their value.
  2. Major League Ready
    I don't know how it's even debatable. Julien was starting at 2B instead of Polanco and Polanco also was a back-up to Lewis.
  3. Major League Ready
    and 50 million reasons he won't which is the rough amount of addition salary he will get in a multi year deal. If there we a line on this in Vegas it would be a 20:1 payout.
  4. Major League Ready
    I think you are overlooking a couple things. For starters, Julien has already replaced Polanco. Polanco is a role player now and the Twins play match-ups. Two, the combination of Julien/Farmer is significantly better than Polanco. Julien's OPS is 95 pts higher vs RHP and Farmer's OPS is 95 pts higher vs LHP and Polanco is getting very few innings at 3B as long as Lewis is healthy. In terms, of back-up for Lewis, the combination of Castro/Farmer is at least as good as putting Polo at 3B where he is poor defensively. It also appears you are not considering the $10M salary. I will take a $10M RP and whoever replaces Polanco's bench role over Polanco not to mention they also will get something decent in return. The $10M could come in handy signing Montgomery or Rodriquez as well.
  5. Major League Ready
    I am not so sure about that value proposition. Farmer has considerably better career stats against LHP. That increases his value as a role player. Julien is going to start against RHP and Farmer is better against LHP so Polanco's value is mostly in the form of injury back-up. We could make a case for letting farmer go as well. However, the value proposition as I see it is the replacement(s) for Polanco as a bench Player plus $10M spent elsewhere VS Polanco as a role player. In that equation, the team is better off next year by reallocating the funds for pitching. Insisting the return be for established players is not nearly as effective as getting a good return which has been proven over and over if you bother to look at how mid-market teams have built successful rosters.
  6. Major League Ready
    They are not really relying on Milb players. Polanco would be a role player. Julien is the primary 2B, Lewis 3B and Correa at SS. Then, they have two proven back-ups in Farmer and Castro. I am not sure how to categorize Miranda but he could play into this as well. Spend the $10M on a really good SP or a back of the BP arm. That upgrade is more impactful than replacing Polanco with any of these options.
  7. Major League Ready
    I don't see Walner making Kepler "redundant" I am pretty sure we need two corner OFers. We simply lack depth in the OF both at the ML level and AA/AAA. INFers are a different story. We have Lewis at 3B with Lee / Farmer / Castro / Miranda / Severino and perhaps Prato capable of stepping in in case of Injury. At 2B we have Julien with the same back-ups as 3B. Castro / Lewis and farmer are back-ups for SS.
  8. Major League Ready
    OK. That was not a good example. Have you ever Googled various combinations of keyword phrases related to profitability and loss. I have spent a lot of hours over the years researching MLB finances. If you have done these searches, you ever know there are far more articles about profit than loss. The only time losses have been discussed frequently was 2020 during Covid.
  9. Major League Ready
    he was worth 1 WAR more than the twins highest WAR player and he will be in his 1st year of Arbitration next year. He is not going anywhere. Neither is Santander unless they get a haul. Baltimore has a total of two players on Vet salary for a total of $13M. They certainly do not need to clear payroll space.
  10. Major League Ready
    I have done internet searches on profitability every year for at least the past decade. Generally, what I find are articles estimating profitability for all teams. I find very little on the least profitable teams but I do occasionally see articles on the most profitable teams like this one for 2022. Most profitable MLB teams IN 2022. If there is any bias, I would say it is to report on which teams made a bundle because it's more likely to capture the attention of fan that reads this type of stuff. BTW .... I don't remember an article that has ever had the Twins in the top half in terms of profitability. See a lot of articles with them in the bottom 10.
  11. Major League Ready
    Market score has a correlation to revenue but using it here as a measuring stick makes no sense. You can take a shot at arguing they should be able to produce more revenue in this market but the only measure that matters is revenue. It's also a misrepresentation to say they have a $250M payroll. The players they ended the season with add up to $250M but the Met's and cardinals paid for Scherzer and Montogomery. So, their actual payroll is $207MM this year. They go into next year with $173M + prearb and arbitration projecting at $210M. They have about $100M in revenue without the playoff revenue and about $60M more in salary. It's pretty simple in any business. If revenue goes down, expenses have to go down if profitability is to be maintained. So, what we really need to hope for is quite straight forward .... We must hope the Pohlad's are willing to reduce profitability or perhaps take a loss.
  12. Major League Ready
    Erod had a 28.6% BB% in low A and 20% in A+ with an OBP of .400. That indicates he is Julien like in terms of being selective. That's a lot easier to improve than a guy with a high K rate from chasing.
  13. Major League Ready
    The record budget that was established last year took that extra revenue into account. Plus, they got $30M from the final BAM payment last year. 2024 revenue will go down by the amount of the BAM payment and the reduction in local TV revenue. Selective accounting won't change this reality. We should be hoping the Pohlad's are willing to sacrifice profit while this gets figured out because the reduction in revenue is probable.
  14. Major League Ready
    If they trade Polanco but keep Kepler and Farmer, they could spend $46M given a $150M budget. I don't think they spend $150M but even if they came in at $140M, they could sign a very good pitcher and have enough money to do something with a RH bat. We all know it's hard to land free agent SPs but I am right there with you in terms of the priorities.
  15. Major League Ready
    When you say "Fangraph's worth", is this meant to convey a value measure or is a calculation of the average cost of 1 WAR?
  16. Major League Ready
    They are going to move Polanco for multiple reasons but one of them is not to make room for Lee. I think Jocko87 was on the right track. Polanco has been beat out for 2B and does not have a primary position. Farmer therefore fits this roster better (especially given he hits LHP better) but they don't have to keep Farmer either. They also have a better and more flexible defender in Castro plus several other players waiting in the wings including Lee / Severino / and Prato / Schobel or Hellman could get in the mix as well. The last and perhaps most compelling reason is the money is probably better spent on pitching or OF depth. I am fine with Polanco being traded if it creates enough payroll space for Jordan Montgomery as opposed to a reclamation project of back of the rotation depth..
  17. Major League Ready
    They don't have much for OF depth so I think Kepler is the most likely of the 3 you mentioned to be retained. Of course, they could get an offer they can't refuse. Polanco is the most likely to be traded. He is a good player but he would be diminished to a utility role. He is not well suited for that role and given that role the money can be spent more effectively elsewhere. The money is better used for a CF or 1B back-up plan. They would have $40M if they maintained payroll. We need to keep in mind that $150M payroll was done in a season when they got the final BAM payment and of course TV revenue is likely less. My guess is they spend $140M but that's obviously pure speculation. Perhaps (hopefully) they made a decision last year to allocate part of the BAM money to 2024 payroll so that they could maintain the current level of spending. My hope is that they are able to land a front of the rotation SP even though that makes Polanco's departure even more certain. That puts Varland in the BP and first man up if a SP goes down.
  18. Major League Ready
    I too hope that the Pohlads "eat it". That however is a very different argument than insisting there is no reason revenue should go down because they knew it was coming which was your original argument. The market has changed. Will it be possible for them to regain this revenue and how long will it take? The industry experts MLB brought in probably have a good blueprint by now but we don't have the benefit of the information and planning they have been working on. Spending is going down if the decrease in revenue generated by local TV is permanent. What we can hope for is the Pohlads take it in the shorts for at least a year while the team and the league work on a new model. Who knows, it's possible that new model will generate even more revenue through advertising that actually puts the first teams with cancelled contracts at an advantage.
  19. Major League Ready
    My firm had several clients over the years where their industry / market changed and it simply was not possible to generate the same level of revenue for a given revenue stream. We don't know exactly what how the alternatives are going to shape up or exactly how long it will take to develop a new distribution channel. Simply pounding your fist saying this is not acceptable has little value. The key would appear to be raising viewership through providing a wider range of options to get coverage and then capitalizing on advertising. I am sure a plan is in place but that pan could take 2 or 3 years to fully develop. The Pohlad's are not going to have a problem with a plan that loses 30% of revenue this year but provides a sustainable increase in revenue by year 2 or 3.
  20. Major League Ready
    It's looking like Buxton is the wildcard of 2024. We could get nothing but wow what a boost for this team if we get the best of Byron Buxton. We will find out how confident they are by what the line-up as a back-up plan.
  21. Major League Ready
    I agree that he is a good fall-back position. However, the QO would have to be made before they could sort out the other options. So, should they gamble on landing someone better or make the QO knowing that if he accepts that will be all they can do for starting pitching. I guess you could frame that as Paddack is replacing Gray and everything else remains the same. It's a reasonable move given how hard it is to sign one of the 2 or 3 guys that are reasonable targets but I sure would like to have an upgrade. I agree with Jocko it's a 50/50 chance he accepts. If someone offers him 2/30 that is probably more appealing to Maeda. Obviously, the Twins could then match the 2/30 if they want him for a couple a years.
  22. Major League Ready
    The problem with this is paying Maeda $20M negates the chance they get anyone better because they are not spending $45M+ on two free agent SPs. The target should be someone better than Maeda.
  23. Major League Ready
    MLB hired notable industry executives to come up with a solution, right? I would hope they are supporting all of the teams work toward a distribution plan that maximizes availability. I see this as an opportunity to significantly increase the number of households that can view games at a reasonable price. The best way to do that is a medium that is widely available. Obviously, doubling the viewers ship increases the advertising dollars and reduces the fees required to maintain broadcast revenue. This should be a great opportunity for baseball to increase availability.
  24. Major League Ready
    It has nothing to do with Rocco. Our pitching was better so he let them go longer. We got Willi Castro and MAT. They stole bases.
  25. Major League Ready
    It's an impossible task with the velocity and movement today. We will see the challenge system or automated strike zone in the not-too-distant future. The new rule changes have really improved the game leaving this problem front and center. BTW .... I think Julien is really going to be an on base machine when the system is changed. He gets called out quite a bit on pitches that narrowly miss the zone.
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