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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    I have heard and seen a lot of talk about Alcantara too. You would think their fans would riot if they remain hot and still sell him off. Their payroll is only $67M but he is by far the highest paid player. This one will be interesting to watch. BTW ... The $67M is with $12M retained for Avisail Garcia which drops to $5M next year. They don't need to save the money but this franchise makes the Twins look like wild spenders.
  2. Major League Ready
    This all looks good but I don't see Miami trading Alcantara unless the return assumes he is fully healthy / Cy Young level pitcher he has been in the past. That will cost waaaaay more than Emma. That's going to be Soto / Jenkins and a couple other top 30 prospects. He had a clunker last time out but why sell low? My guess is that nobody is going to pony up what they want unless he is great between now and the deadline. They will hope that he has a good 2nd half and they can look at trading him over the winter. Love the Harry Ford trade.
  3. Major League Ready
    I would be interested to hear why you think Wallner is untouchable. He has produced .2 WAR at this point of the season. He was very good last year so I understand that prospective but untouchable?
  4. Major League Ready
    You might be right. If he has great potential, he should be ready after giving him the rest of the year at AA and the first 2-3 months of next at AAA. He will be 23 1/2 at this time next year.
  5. Major League Ready
    He has a wRC+ of 100 for the last 6 weeks. He is neither hurting or helping. I could see holding on to France if this team looked like a playoff team which they do not. We should take note of what Detroit did last year. They invested in the future. (Keaschall / Julien / Sabato / Rodriquez / Martin / Cardenas) All of these guys could be auditioned this year.
  6. Major League Ready
    I would like to see them trade France if they continue to struggle offensively. Julien has offensive upside compared to France. Let's find out this year if Julien or perhaps Sabato can provide a solution for next year instead of finding out next year that we still don't have a solution.
  7. Major League Ready
    Cardenas has taken Cartaya's spot which makes sense. Cardenas is the only catcher in the system that might be able to help next year.
  8. Major League Ready
    Our only disagreement is that your focus is immediate. I am pointing out that there is an alternative on the not-too-distant future. It really does not matter this year unless this team makes serious improvements in a number of areas very soon. This is why I am more concerned about having a solution on the horizon.
  9. Major League Ready
    I don't get it either. The next 2 guys to join the club will likely be Lewis and Keaschall who are RH. The next wave is likely to be (in rough order) E. Rodriguez / Gonzalez / Sabato / Jenkins / Culpepper / Cardenas and Debarge. 5 of the 7 are RH.
  10. Major League Ready
    Over the last 10 seasons the Tigers have had a win percentage of .44 or 71 wins. The Twins are at .494 or 80 wins so you appear to be influenced by recency bias. The Tigers have done a little better job of drafting and one draft pick (Skubal) can make a world of difference. The other big difference is that the Twins are getting nothing out of Lewis who was a 1/1 pick. A year ago nobody would have complained about that pick and hopefully we won't be remorseful a year from now. All that aside, the are now good after absolutely sucking for a decade so we should at least recognize a more macro view.
  11. Major League Ready
    The Tigers 3 highest paid players account for $65M in payroll. The Twins top 3 Cost $74M. The Tigers and Twins have almost exactly the same payroll. Their spending for the last few years has outpaced the rest of the division. The complaints about spending are misguided and worn out. Their current failure is a combination of Ober's sudden ineffectiveness, Correa's mediocre play, and Pablo's injury. It also does not help that Lewis, Julien and Miranda turned into pumpkins.
  12. Major League Ready
    Correa's wRC+ is below average and his defense is average at best. Fangraphs projects to be a 2.0 WAR player and BB Reference projects him to be .2 WAR. That's quite a difference. Regardless, it's quite feasible Culpepper could produce better results from day 1 in the league which is probably by this time next year. Now, if Correa gets back to his career norms offensively, he will be harder to replace as long as his defense does not continue to decline.
  13. Major League Ready
    It's not possible to build a big league club in a mid-market without a great farm system. So, while this sounds witty, it completely ignores reality. Show us an example of a successful mid market team built on trading for established players and/or expensive free agents. The table below shows the acquisition method for 2025 Detroit players that are on pace to produce 1.5 WAR or greater. 2025 Tigers Acquired WAR Riley Greene Drafted 3.0 Zach McKinstry AaP 2.6 Gleyber Torres FA 2.3 Dillon Dingler Drafted 2.0 Javier Baez FA 1.8 Spencer Torkelson Drafted 1.4 Wenceel Perez Intl 1.0 Colt Keith Drafted 0.9 Kerry Carpenter Drafted 0.8 Tarik Skubal Drafted 4.3 Reese Olson AaP 1.2 Casey Mize Drafted 1.1 Will Vest Drafted 1.1 Acquired by: Drafted 8 62.1% International Draft 1 4.3% Acquired as Prospect 2 16.2% Trade for Proven 0 0.0% Free Agent 2 17.4%
  14. Major League Ready
    Right there with you Dman on every point. One slight tweak would be to add a catching prospect to the focus on pitching you propose. That's a real weakness unless Cardenas has a great year. They could find a decent free agent catcher to bridge the gap but getting one via trade for an expiring contract would be a very nice boost to this team. I have always really like Stewart and would not be surprised if another team would pony up for him given he is not a free agent until 2028. He does seem injury prone but with 2 1/2 years of control I would not want them to let him go unless it was a meaningful prospect. If Duran is traded, the deal needs to include a teams #1 or 2 prospect plus a couple others.
  15. Major League Ready
    I continued to be astonished by people wanting to "dump Buxton's contract". He is on pace to produce 6.8 WAR for a little over $15M. That's 1WAR for every $2.3M. He is a bargain. Of course he is having a good year. Last year he produced 3.7 WAR which is still a bargain at a little over $4M WAR. We are going to shed 35.6M next year. Of course, we are going to add some cost for arbitration increases but we do not need to shed a highly productive contract. If a team made a crazy offer for him, anyone is tradeable, but his contract should not be the reason to get rid of him.
  16. Major League Ready
    Probably but the biggest gains are probably post 2027. The Twins need to accumulate more talent. The current roster simply does not have what it takes. Of course, many teams improve organically but there are also many cases of where very good players were traded away and the return accumulated talent that elevated the seller's future. Look at the result of Washington trading Soto. Those players are on place to produce almost 20WAR for 10% of Soto's contract and they will be contributing for several years.
  17. Major League Ready
    I sure hope Pablo and Zebby get healthy so we don't have to find out.
  18. Major League Ready
    I just hope they are not caught in the middle and do nothing with a team that might make the playoffs but go nowhere. That’s an opportunity missed to invest playing time for young players that might be part of the solution. If they are sellers, the only non-rental I see as likely to be traded is one of Larnach or Wallner. I could see them banking on some combination of E. Rodriguez / Jenkins / GG and Martin. I guess I would not be shocked to see Pablo go if the return was great. Coulombe would be the most likely player on the entire roster to be traded but I don't see them selling of any RPs under team control next year. Duran is not a FA until 2028 so it would have to be an enormous return. If they are not legit contenders, I would like to see them sell as many players on expiring contracts as possible. Move France and give Julien another shot a 1B or even Sabato if the FO believes he is ready. So far he has not skipped a beat going to AAA. Move Bader and insert either E. Rodriquez or Austin Martin. It’s a stretch but maybe they could trade Vazquez and throw Cardenas in the deep end if he plays well between now and the deadline. On the pitching side, Matthews / Festa and perhaps Morris or Adams get established. On the position side, Lewis and Keaschall are back along with the prospects mentioned above and it would be more interesting to watch than a 500 team with no legit chance in the post season.
  19. Major League Ready
    Right there with you, Mike. Apparently a 21 y/o old with a 929 OPS in AA is bad. Who knows, he could tank again but right now he looks like he is going to move up considerable in our prospect rankings.
  20. Major League Ready
    I agree on replacing France. That's why I qualified with "if they don't make a run soon". It makes perfect sense to move an expiring contract and give a prospect a chance if we are out of the race.
  21. Major League Ready
    Good to see Martin back. He was good out of the gates this year and picked up where he left off. Sabato? It's only been 11 games at AAA but he has been better than AA. His wRC+ is 1.044 now. I don't know what to think but I am loving it. I was so down on him it seems like a gift. If they don't make a run soon, and he keeps this up through July, do we see France traded and Sabato getting a shot after the deadline? He would have a total of 150-175 PAs in AAA around the deadline.
  22. Major League Ready
    Not likely but possible. I think there could be a team that believes the 1st half of this year does not reflect who he will be going forward given his track record. The takeaway and I believe your point is that they are not getting much back.
  23. Major League Ready
    Below is a ranking of Twins players wRC+ over the past year. (2nd half 24 & 1st half 25) It seems unwarranted to be real down on Wallner. Keep him away from LH pitching and he should be fine. I do wonder about his stance and swing for that matter. It's easier for me to have confidence in Larnach. He has good mechanics and a nice compact swing. Hopefully, they are going to have some good OF options by this time next year or sooner. I am hoping to see two or three guys among E. Rodriguez / Jenkins / Martin / McCusker & GG make the OF construction a real strength. PAs wRC+ Byron Buxton 430 160 Matt Wallner 385 145 Kody Clemens 136 129 Trevor Larnach 532 121 Kyle Farmer 101 115 Carlos Correa 365 115 Harrison Bader 226 111 Carlos Santana 291 109 Willi Castro 530 103 Ryan Jeffers 452 102 Ty France 317 102 Max Kepler 171 87 Brooks Lee 431 86 Austin Martin 139 84 Jose Miranda 224 79 Royce Lewis 338 73 Manuel Margot 160 73 C. Vázquez 286 72 Edouard Julien 211 62
  24. Major League Ready
    Don't go throwing around this much common sense. It ruins a perfectly good opportunity to be mad for no good reason.
  25. Major League Ready
    All five deals look great. Maybe a little too good and does Correa really have any excess value? I just don't see anyone giving up a premium prospect unless the twins eat a bunch of salary. Would Correa waive his no trade without considerable compensation? If I were trading for Correa, I would not give up much more than taking on his salary.
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