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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    1) it's not much different at all and may very well work out that way. 2) Two things. One, impact players and sustained success. Ryan has the highest probability by far of bringing back a star that can carry the team. Two, positioning for sustained success. We have an incredible amount of young talent that needs to be transitioned to the big leagues. That means 2026 is a transition (lost) year and 2027 is still a long shot. In other words, the probability of the big three contributing to a playoff run is very low. For me, winning 72 or 78 games next year makes little difference. The point being that passing on the return provided by trading these players offers very little value and most likely diminishes our chances for several years after 2027.
  2. Major League Ready
    Three reasons I am sure. One, when you sell of key pieces with 2 plus years control like Duran, Jax, and Varland, you are not trying to win the next year. Two, Lopez and Ryan have two years remaining after this year. One year is certainly lost and the 2nd year has a low probability. Their trade value is far higher than their value for the possibility of having one year in the playoffs. Three, keeping them would be half-a$$ing it. The entire point of a tearing down a mediocre team is to amass enough talent to move well beyond mediocre to actual contender. Ryan and Lopez have the potential to bring back the type of impact players that are essential to going from good to great. Stopping the rebuild now defeats much of the purpose of going through a rebuild. We would be a little better for 1 year and worse for 4-6 years after 2027. I look for 2 of the three to be traded this off-season.
  3. Major League Ready
    You are making an assumption on the most likely path. I read similar assumptions so many times that it made me curious if this assumption had merit. I heard this over and over again so I really wanted to validate it but I could not find any articles that did anything to actually validate this position. So, I collected the acquisition method for every 1.5+ win player on literally every 90+ win since the turn of the century for teams in the bottom half of revenue. Trading for prospects has produced 4-5X the WAR on these teams. I can tell you with absolute certainty that your assumption is wrong historically. If you have a theory on why this would change going forward, I would love to hear it.
  4. Major League Ready
    I watch 80% of the games but I was losing interest in watching an unathletic, poor defending, and poor base running team. It will be far more interesting to watch all the guys competing for a place on next year's team. Keaschall makes it worthwhile almost by himself. I also want to see if Lewis and Wallner are the guys we have seen the last couple weeks. At some point late this year or next year it will be even more interesting as we start seeing Culpepper / Jenkins / Rodriguez / Gonzalez / Abel / etc being worked into the roster. It might fail spectacularly, or it may be spectacular which makes it compelling to watch.
  5. Major League Ready
    His in zone contact rate in the minors was in the 95th percentile.
  6. Major League Ready
    It would be great if he could make that move given our abundance of outfield prospects, but I seriously doubt he has the physical tools other than being tall. That's why I say give him the entire winter with a coach executing drills on an ongoing basis.
  7. Major League Ready
    Lee would have never entered my mind. He is a below average hitter and that makes absolutely no sense at 1B. I like Mike's idea for Wallner in concept but he would have some work to do.. They have a bunch of OF prospects who are all better fielders but Wallner definitely does not impress me as having goods hands or footwork. They should come up with an off-season program to see if it looks feasible in spring training.
  8. Major League Ready
    I have posted a few times that I am pulling hard for Rodriguez because he is just what we have been lacking. He hits both handed pitching, very good defender, and he can back-up Buxton in CF. Rodriguez stepping up would be huge. That would be an incredible OF. Walner would DH a lot but that's OK. The offense has a very realistic chance of being much improved over this year's team by the half-way point next year.
  9. Major League Ready
    Looking very forward to Jenkins and Culpepper joining the Twins. My over/under is July 1, 2026. The new core will be Buxton/Lewis/Jenkins/Culpepper/Keaschall. That's a lot more exciting group to watch.
  10. Major League Ready
    Getting rid of Correa's salary has absolutely no effect on debt. They did not borrow money to pay for Correa's future salary. Nightengale should consult someone with a financial background before writing something this dumb.
  11. Major League Ready
    I didn't like the Outman deal either. I thought it made the least sense of any of the deals for the same reasons you have stated in various post. That said, the relevance of that deal in the big picture is quite small. We no doubt can debate and grade the various deals, but the wisdom of rebuilding is the bigger issue by far, IMO.
  12. Major League Ready
    Here is what I think gets lost in comparing paths. Staying the course had a milestone at the end of 2027 that to me was an expiration date. Ryan / Lopez / Ober / Duran / Jax would all be free agents. I did not like our odds of getting anything significant done in the playoffs without major improvements in the offense. Even with new owners, there is no way that was getting done through free agency. Our only shot would have been to unload our top prospects to bet on that two-year window. What does the 5-7 year window look like from 28 forward? The difference in that window would be whatever we traded away to bet on 26-27 plus whatever becomes of all the prospects we just traded for plus whatever we get for Ryan / Lopez / Ober. The difference in terms of how the team projects for several years after 2027 is night and day. I understand prospects often fail but the difference in potential is monumentally different.
  13. Major League Ready
    Alot of truth in this except the 2030 part. They have a ton of starting pitching that is major league ready. They also need to completely remake the OF with the exception of Buxton and they have great OF prospects that are ready or will be by next year. They have Keaschall ready and Culpepper close. a little thinner in terms of INF options but this is quite atypical for a rebuild to have this many players major league ready. hey can miss on quite a few and it will take a couple years to completely sort out but this will be a talented young team in 2027. I should add it will be a lot more athletic team that might actually create some excitement and play some defense.
  14. Major League Ready
    You are absolutely right but does it make any difference if it's 6-7 guys or 7-8 guys for 2 spots?
  15. Major League Ready
    That's exactly how I see the pitching and Larnach unless Roden completely bombs. Jeffers, I don't know about just because they have very little for internal options. Of course, a trade could change that outlook.
  16. Major League Ready
    If they kept Lopez / Ryan and Ober, that would leave them with Bradley / SWR / Festa / Matthews and Abel for 2 spots. All of them have already been promoted to the major league level. Most of us can grasp that this rebuild will take at least two years, and everyone understands that Lopez/Ryan and Ober will be free agents in 2 years, Therefore, these prospects would be blocked from gaining major league experience and the effort to rebuild would be derailed. Congratulations, you have identified a good way to derail a rebuild. Let's play the guys who will be gone by the time we get done rebuilding.
  17. Major League Ready
    My guess where pitching is concerned is they move Ryan and either Lopez/Ober this winter. That gives them one of Lopez/Ober plus (in order of experience) Bradley / SWR / Festa / Matthews. That's 5. Abel probably unseats one of them to start the year or at some point during the year and Rojas will also be ready to go early in 2026. Prielipp and Raya should be ready at some point in 2026. That's 8 or 9. Adams / Morris / Ohl would be additional depth and may or may not ever be SPs. Of course, some of these guys will end up in the BP. They are not going to hold great trade assets during a rebuild phase especially players blocking prospects that are definitely ready. Whoever remains between Lopez / Ober is traded at the deadline. I would trading those three players add a few good pitching prospects to this already substantial list.
  18. Major League Ready
    I hear you and that's reasonable. However, I hear an awful lot of grumbling (understandably) about this organization's failure to build anything more than a fringe playoff team that never makes a deep run. While I agree there is something to be said for frequency of making the playoffs, I think pretty much everyone wants more. The question is are we willing to do what it takes to build something more substantial? Even with Pablo / Ryan / Ober, this was never going to be among the top contenders. Those three are very good but they are not elite. It would take a very good offense and we did not have the horses. They made an investment in Correa intending for him to contribute significantly to getting over the top. He is not that player. Larnach / Wallner are mediocre. We have zip at 2B and 1B. I am not sure what we have at 3B. It was time to shuffle the deck.
  19. Major League Ready
    2026 is absolutely for certain lost. Lopez / Ryan / Ober are free agents in 2027. Should they keep Ryan who would bring a massive return because there is an outside chance they could make the playoffs in 2027?
  20. Major League Ready
    The question becomes .... Do fans want a team with a chance to compete for a playoff spot, or do they want to build a team that can realistically have a shot at winning a WS or at least a deep playoff run? If the only consideration is having a chance at a playoff spot next year, tweaking the mediocre roster the best course of action. However, just making the playoffs is not the goal I see from most TD posters.
  21. Major League Ready
    Very true but this point of view neglects to recognize that it is virtually impossible for an average revenue team is to develop prospects. Yet, the message here is often there is no hope because prospects often don't work out.
  22. Major League Ready
    Because they traded him?
  23. Major League Ready
    Two points and I am not sure either is an argument, just perspective. One, you framed your post as which prospects will impact the Twins by the start of next year. Is immediate impact the appropriate perspective in any form of rebuild? Two, it can be very difficult to predict which prospects are impact players. There was very little fanfare surrounding Arraez as an example and the most likely source of a premium prospect will be the trades of Lopez and Ryan so they are not on the radar yet.
  24. Major League Ready
    Manfred's statement on the certainty of the sale really surprised me. You just don't make that kind of statement without being really certain. So, I wonder, is the deal done or has he not learned this lesson. I can tell you from personal experience it does not take long to learn that lesson when you have tightly held information. It gives me some confidence, but it's quite possible Manfred opened his mouth when he should not have. They might have to overpay a couple free agent RPs given the number of holes they have to fill. A $3M/year player is probably a lot more swayed by more money or an extra year.
  25. Major League Ready
    I did not mean to suggest an expensive free agent would be added anytime soon. That makes no sense at this point. Where I was trying to lead that thought was that they should be able to fill the rotation for the next 6-10 years with cost effective players. When it comes time to add an additional piece, all of the inexpensive talent will make it feasible to add via free agency. I also mentioned the even better scenario is that we make smart extensions like Atlanta. Could not agree more that getting a premium return on Ryan / Lopez / Ober would be a huge boost in taking this team to the next level.
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