Major League Ready

How is Spencer Steer defensively at 3B. Does he have a chance to be an everyday 3B or is his future a utility guy? Where have they been playing Martin?

I agree Lewis could end up at 3B. However, if we lose Buxton, Lewis will be most valuable in CF. I do not agree on trading Miranda and I don't believe there is anyway the FO deals him. We are thin at 3B as it is. Donaldson has reached the point in his career that his utility at 3B and his ability to stay on the field is declining. I share your concern given Miranda's sudden breakthrough. However, he has sustained it at 2 levels. More importantly, Miranda's potential impact is huge and we would feel that impact for several years. Would the Ray's trade Miranda. VERY unlikely! Arraez is a valuable player and he is fun to watch. I don't really want to trade him but he is viable as an every day 2B. My thinking is that he would have his maximum value in that role. Therefore, either Arraez or Polanco would bring back greater value than they provide under our current roster construction. Of course, you have to find the right deal but the hope is to get a SS or pitching and Martin or Lewis eventually take the Arraez role. They can sign a free agent until that happens or give Gordon or Palacios a shot in 2022 until Martin / Lewis are ready.

There is a famous lyric ... there is none so blind as those who will not see. The facts (stats) show clearly that Rosario is a replacement level player this year producing well below average players. Holding him up as a solution or someone who would have made any difference this year is an absolute refusal to acknowledge the brutally obvious. Past performance is a nice memory but it has no function today! I also found no entertainment in watching the horrible ABs, defensive lapses, and base running errors. Here is the good news. His relative performance / value will be illustrated by the offers he receives when he is available to every team in the league.

True. It's also true that ditching a veteran that has been an elite player will not be looked upon favorably when we try to sign free agents in the future. They are still looking for the next $10M payday and being dumped to the bench does not help their cause for next year. You may think it's OK to discard them but it will make a poor impression among their piers. Fans can be this short-sighted. GMs need to protect the team's image with players.

Yes he is but stating emphatically that they lose 100 games with him at SS is an absurd statement given they won 100 games in 2019 with him at SS. I really want a better SS solution too but let's not get carried away with statements like they lose 100 games with him at SS.!

IMO, any team trading Miranda and keeping Donaldson is a big mistake, especially a team with the Twins scenario in terms of having numerous pitching prospects to get established. It's an even bigger mistake for a small or mid-market team. I think our problem is we have 2 very good 2B. Trade one of them if the value back is there. BTW, it probably won't be a similar value established MLB player. The team that trades for Arraez or Polanco is not looking to give up high end major league talent. It's possible but unlikely. Tampa is really good at get guys on the brink of the big leagues or guys that have just broke in but not gotten established. I would trade one of Arreaz / Polanco (probably Arraez) AND Donaldson. It could backfire. Miranda could fail at this level but worst case scenario we spend whatever part of Donaldson's salary we off-load on a SS or pitching.

Sure hope he continues to impress. He has been a bright spot this year.

I watched the Saints game instead of the Twins to watch Ryan. He was impressive. Very good command of his FB. He did not use his off-speed stuff much and when he did the command was not great. Hopefully, the Twins staff can help him dial in his other offerings. He is going to be good but he could be very good if he sharpens his other pitches.

Rosario may have been my favorite Twin for a period of time. He made a big impression on me in the AFL Championship game. If my memory is correct, he went 4-5 with 2HR, a triple and double and smoked a ball on a line to the RF for the only out he made. Yes, somehow he got 1 MVP pt in 2019 and 1% of the MVP votes in 2020 for his 800 OPS is about average for a corner OFer. I suspect some MN writers had a few votes. He was fantastic the second half of 2017 and the first half of 2018. Pitchers adjusted and he simply could not or would not apply any discipline in his plate appearances. The reality after the league made this adjustment, from July 1, 2018 until he was let go, Rosario produced 2.2 WAR in almost 1100 PAs. Kepler produced 7 WAR in that period and Polanco 6.2. If you don’t like WAR, Rosario’s wRC+ was 97. Not horrible put 10 pts under the average corner OFer. His OPS was 760. This year he produced .3 WAR and a wRC+ of 84. He went from mediocre to bad. These numbers are fact so I am going to go with that as reality. Unless you can explain how a near replacement level player would have made a difference, going back to the why didn’t we keep Eddie Rosario well shows an unwillingness to accept the reality of the player he has become.

If you want to fantasize about players that were once good, let's bring back Puckett. Eddie Rosario was mediocre 2018-2020 and replacement level in 2021. To come here and suggest it was a mistake to let him go or that he would have been smart to retain a guy playing at replacement level for is living in the past with no clue of the current reality. Refsnyder and Garlick were both substantially better for $9M less. What are the odds you get to you 5th level of depth for one position?

It would be interesting to see the productivity (WAR) for free agent position players after the 1st year of a new contract. As you know, I did this analysis for free agent pitchers and it was not pretty. As a mater of fact it would suggest this is an ill-advised strategy. I say "suggests" because the same size is too small to be conclusive, Lorenzo Cain is a good example. He was great the first year (5.7 WAR) The next year (2019) he produced 1.5 WAR. Then, .2 WAR in 2020, the Covid season and so far this year has produced .9 WAR. I examined all FA pitchers with 5+ year contracts going back several years. Obviously, this is just one position player and I doubt the drop-off after the 1st year is as extreme with position players.

I am not so sure. I could see Iglesias or Galvis. Simmons offense has been bad enough they just might move on. I do love the way Simmons plays the game but we should explore other options.

Depends on if the organization believes they can fix all that is wrong with our pitching and the rest of the team for that matter in free agency or trades for 2022. Put another way, they could be influenced by their perceived chances of contending in 2022 VS putting a good product on the field in 2022 but under a strategy aimed at 2023. Under that first premise, they go sign 2-3 FA SPs and Jax probably gets squeezed out. He is either SP depth or in the BP. If the organization sees there best chance at returning to contention and sustaining that success being dependent of developing a lot of pitching, they commit to that strategy by giving the plethora of SP prospects they have a shot. This could mean they keep three spots open in 2022. Jax / Ober / Barnes and perhaps Ryan will be the plan come spring training. Winder / Balazovic or Strotman could win a spot in spring training. Jax probably still gets moved the BP or traded as Balazovic / SWR / Duran / Canterino / Enlow make their way to the ML club. So, the plan focused on 2023 would start with 3 of Jax / Ober / Barnes / Ryan but the 5 mentioned above will hopefully be good enough to take the place of the weakest link and the rotation looks quite different at the end of the season. Best case scenario is we end up trading some young pitching or some of these guys end up effective BP arms. The strategy aimed at 2023 likely means trading Donaldson in the off-season if possible and bringing Miranda up in 2022.

I am 100% with you on this one. The young SPs have looked like they can more than hold their own. I would much rather have one really good SP than a couple Pineda / Happ types. Give me Rodon (or similar) plus Maeda and 3 of Ober / Jax / Barnes / Ryan / Winder to start the season and we should do quite well. Balazovic / Duran waiting in the wings with SWR / Enlow and Canterino not far behind. A couple of these guys are going to end up booting our BP nicely. Polanco needs to stay at 2B. SS would be a good free agent investment but I could also see trading Arraez for a SS that is being blocked elsewhere. Miranda could fill that role next year and eventually replace Donaldson. Really hope they can come to terms with Buxton. We might not be a true contender in 2022 with these moves but we will be close and should be in the thick of it in 2023. That's a nice rebound.

I doubted Barnes from the start but how do you dump him when he has been quite effective. Maybe crafty lefties will be more effective now that so many players have built swings to deal with 95+. IDK but I would continue to test him at the MLB level. I should add that perhaps we should be a little more open minded to the rookies and waiver wire pick-ups that helped us go 7-3 against all the 3 division leaders in successive series. Pretty good without having Buxton / Kirilloff and Rodgers.

Do you have some basis for this strategy? ie. Some form of articles or data regarding the success rates of draft picks? My guess is that if you get outside the top 7-10 picks the success rate, at least in becoming a #1 type SP goes down substantially and when you get past the first 30-40 picks it goes way down. So, I would want to know the success rate of position players drafted in the first 30-40 positions. I think there are a lot of strong opinions formed by baseball fans with very little to support it. For example, I heard a lot of the same rumblings about the Twins not signing the very top international free agents. When, I actually went out an collected the data, the facts suggested a strategy of never spending over roughly $1.5M would yield better results. It would be interesting to construct a list of the top 30 position players (by WAR) and the top 30 Pitchers for the past decade and determine the drafting position.

The bitching about any acquisition that isn't an ace or Mike Traut is getting very tedious. Until we can fill the roster with 26 superstars. good players, especially cheap controllable pitching has great value. How much difference have Ober / Jax / Minaya and Gant made in just the past 2 weeks? The concept that #1 and #2 SPs are really important to dominance is not exactly a novel concept but neither is the need for good cost controlled players to fill out a roster.

I definitely agree we should expect a team above 500 next year. No doubt we should expect a better rotation but more importantly we need to see validation of prospect identification and development. Same for the BP. I also agree that it’s pointless to sign mediocre starters. That would be very short-sighted given the number of SPs we have ready to be auditioned. Where we disagree is that I would not try to fix everything in one off-season unless Ober / Jax and Ryan are really impressive for the remainder of the season. At that point I would go after one of the high profile free agent SPs. The reality is that in the past 20 years two elite free agent SPs have been signed by teams with roughly equivalent revenue to the Twins. Therefore, an expectation they sign two is just not realistic. The question we should be asking is not …. How do we contend for a WS next year? We should be asking what is the best strategy to return to contention. The best strategy for returning to contention is not consistent (at the moment) with a strategy focused on building a WS contender next year. They need to almost completely rebuild the SP and BP. They need to dedicate rotation spots to the numerous prospects that will be ready next year. In other words, the fastest way to build a sustainable winner is to take the time necessary to develop our own pitching. Having said this, I would much prefer pursuing one high end SP as opposed to filling the rotation with a couple Michael Pineda types even though that might net a few more win next year.

Taken alone that statement is pretty dumb. In the context of my post it's basically hyperbole and the rest of my post makes that pretty clear. Removing the rest of my post from this quote is a deliberately misrepresentative and you are better than that. I have consistently stated the same basic message message as you have above which is let's see at the end of 2022 if this team is improved and more importantly positioned for sustained success. I have never even hinted they should have several years to get back on track and the remainder of the post you failed to include makes this quite clear. Not cool!

Your are absolutely right that the offense is not championship caliber this year. However, if we are to interpret exactly what was meant by Falvey's statement we would have needed to ask a couple follow-up questions. For example, does this mean it's realistic you can put a contending team on the field every year? Does this mean you will overcome injuries and will never have FAs that just don't work out? Does this mean that you will find pitching in years even when 90% of the available pitching fails? They promised to manage toward a GOAL of sustainability. It's just not remotely reasonable to expect any mid market team to put a true contender on the field EVERY year. They have put systems in place and made personnel decisions consistent with the stated goal if we can accept goals are not reached 100% of the time in professional sports. For fans to get so bent about a bad year to the degree some have here is IMO naive. Literally two-thirds of the teams in baseball are out or long-shots for the post season and it's early August. Are all of those organizations incompetent? Lots of things have gone wrong this year but let's not say "but you promised" by posting this type if PR statement as if they were solemn promises to contend every year. We actually might be witnessing a turn around with some sustainability right now. The farm system just got a jolt with some players with the potential to be impactful for several years. Let's get bent out of shape if the team is bad for the next 4 or 5 years as some are predicting here. I am going to first judge if the team get better over the course of the last couple months. Then, next year, I will expect multiple pitchers to assimilate to the ML level. If so, they will be building sustainable success. If not, I will be calling for their dismissal as well.

Not even remotely my point. There is no suggestion here that fans "do the work for them". The point is certainly not that fans have information and make the same mistakes. The point is that better selections did not exist and many here are more than adequately informed to know the options, including the options they endorsed that did not work out To call for better decisions when you should know they did not exist is absurd. Those who are calling for terminations are essentially saying .... I know there were no realistic options that would have been better but you should have found something that did not exist. If your employer had the same expectations, I am betting your would have some choice words to describe said employer.

This is very reasonable unless you are insisting the FO is incompetent and/or suggesting they should be terminated. Someone with the skillset to render an opinion about executive competence would never go down this path without having an understanding of the options that were present. Therefore, a much more reasonable position is to discuss the options that were present instead of calling for terminations. I would add that many of the people here spend a great deal of time following baseball and know exactly what the options were or could look them up in a couple minutes. I have no problem if someone has no desire to take the time to be informed. Just don't go calling for terminations if you are not willing to put forth a modest effort to be informed.

Me too. Does he have some incriminating photos? ?

Once again, I am going to ask what decisions they could have made that would have been better. Which FAs or players that were traded would have put this team anywhere near contention? It's really easy to point to a theoretical solution. You can get away with that on the internet. Just avoid the questions that disprove the theory. Pounding this type of poorly conceived drum in the real world does not go over well.