Dman

Yeah Polanco makes the most sense. He is turning 30 has just a few more prime years left and is getting more expensive. Another team has to want him though and the Twins have to want what another team is willing to offer. If we are looking at Miami I don't think Polanco makes sense. They would want lower salary players and players that can grow with their core. Polanco doesn't fit well in that scenario IMO. So each trading partner has different needs for different players. Also the only reason we are trading either of those players this year is for a top of the rotation starter. If we can't get that then we should roll with what we have. They are both valuable players for this team now and in the future. With Jullien, Martin, Lewis and maybe Lee on the horizon one or both of those players might be good trade candidates if the Twins can get something they need. But sure if I had my choice it would be to move Polanco.

I would give up Kepler that is about it. Love Parada's bat but he was rated as having a 45 arm. Not ideal for catcher. Honestly I don't see him sticking at catcher but that is just my opinion. Lee is also already two levels ahead of him and both players were picked primarily for their bats. I still think Lee was the better choice especially since he is a switch hitter and can likely play multiple positions. If I thought Parada would stick at catcher I might feel differently but if he end up at 1st base or DH I will be really glad the Twins picked Lee.

I was one of those poster who couldn't see Lee making it to number 8. I had him gone at pick #4 for sure. I also thought Miami who picked right in front of us would take him. I liked the tooled up outfielders in that draft the best but Lee was next in line for me. A 70 hit tool and switch hitter good from both sides. Basically a unicorn bat. Could not believe the Twins got him. Watching him a few games this year he looked fine at short. He didn't look elite but he certainly looked solid there. He made some great plays and misplayed some too. His range did seem to be a bit limited but he can make the throws. It was a great pick by the Twins and I hope to see him with the big league club soon.

I don't completely disagree and love your write up! Still I don't see much of an advantage playing Farmer in left or right. The current team is so left handed all they need to do is move Arraez to DH and there is room for Farmer in the infield or give Arraez the day off against lefties as he doesn't hit them that well either. Kirilloff could play first but he is actually listed as an outfielder and has played lot's of outfield on his way up. Why not use actual outfielders in the outfield? Who else is there to bat right handed in the infield or outfield? I think Farmer is it. I don't know what the righty\lefty splits are on Gallo, Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Gordon are. Maybe Arraez does better against lefties than all of them. Still that leaves the DH spot open for a righty. I just think given the circumstances it makes more sense to play outfielders in the outfield. Farmer is 32 and while left field isn't all that difficult I'd try and keep him on the dirt where he has played most of his MLB ball. Farmer could be an acceptable\last resort bridge until Lewis returns but do we know when that will be? The one point you might have me on unless something changes is Farmer is likely better in the outfield than Garlick. Not having Garlick on the 40 man leaves room for other players. So I would say you are correct in that scenario. If they did bring Garlick back then yes I would most likely prefer Farmer in the outfield with Garlick in the DH spot as it adds another righty bat and hopefully Farmer would be better defensively in left. Still I don't think Farmer in the outfield is a "good idea" maybe "necessary" but hopefully the Twins come up with a better option.

Sorry!

No one would be concerned about a right handed hitting outfielder if the Twins OPS against left handed pitchers wasn't so poor. If the lefties could hit lefties it wouldn't be a concern. They can't thus the concern.

There doesn't seem to be much reason to play Farmer in the outfield that I can see. If you want more righty bats in the lineup then just move Miranda to 1st base, and put Farmer at 3rd or DH Miranda or Farmer. Why play him out of position in the outfield when it seems you can pretty easily find room in the infield for him? The Twins still need a right handed outfield bat and I wouldn't be surprised to see Garlick fill it yet again. Still a fair bit of the offseason left so things can change but I don't see the need for Farmer in Left baring injuries. Anyone else notice how much the Twins have inquired about centerfielder's this year? First Lauriano, then Taylor I think they are looking for backup potential for Buxton which would be nice. So far though no interest or prices high.

I don't completely disagree but remember the Twins will get two roster spots back when Paddack and Canterino go on the injured list so they they could replace those spots with position players. If the Twins Add a starter then one of the current starters might get bumped to the pen. At any rate they can still balance the roster if needed. In a perfect world you would carry 6 outfielders, 8 infielders and 2 catchers and maybe a DH for position players. That gives you a potential replacement player for each position for a total of 17 players. 40 Man rosters most always carry more pitchers than position players as pitchers tend to get injured more often and need options to be replaced. I don't think you would want more than 18 position players on the 40 man if you can help it but that is just my opinion.

I am not sure if you heard but Sano is no longer on the team. Maybe they should just bring Sano back and forget about Adell? That would be cheaper.

When hit tools are bad count me out. The Twins had tons of time to help change Sano and it never happened. That is why hit tool is the number one thing to go for in the draft without it you can't make the team. I guess if the price was nominal why not but more than likely he is who he is at the plate and that is why the Angels would be willing to move on. Twins need more pitching lottery tickets too so wouldn't be thrilled if that is what it took to get him. With the Twins this desperate for right handed bats I guess I could see it but I doubt it works out.

I haven't looked that closely at Max. I know he was dominant through the minors and looked like a top of the rotation starter but his MLB debut didn't go well and then TJ. He doesn't help the Twins this year, so you would have to factor that in. It is a bit more of a gamble as he has two elite pitches but could end up a reliever if his arm can't hold up. I would be tempted to do that but I think the Twins are in win now mode so probably a no for me as well.

I would never trade Arraez for Pablo Lopez. Trading Arraez for two years of a mid to back end starter seems like suicide to me. If they are going to trade Arraez at least make it for a pitcher with front of the rotation potential. If the Twins are not trading for a pitcher with front of the rotation potential I would just wait until the deadline and see what shakes out then.

I don't know what to think of Urbina just yet. There seems to be a fair bit of work to do. Until last year his K rate was under 20% and even last year it was only 23% so he is making contact just not solid contact. It feels like he might have a bit of Jose Miranda syndrome. Miranda was good at making contact, so good in fact he was able to hit balls outside the zone. The problem was he needed to swing at better pitches to increase his odds of better contact. Once he started walking more and being more choosey at the plate he had his breakout. I don't think that Urbina will ever have the power that Miranda has but I think if he wants to break out the solution would be to follow the Miranda plan. Make pitchers work and try and force them to give you your pitch. Urbina needs to be good in two strike counts. If Urbina can harness plate discipline I think he can be more Arraez like in that he has great contact skills always had and always will. By being patient he should find his way to solid contact and barrel more balls up. I think to breakout that is what it is going to take. Easier said than done. We will see if this is the year it all comes together. It seems like it took Miranda a while to get there so it might not be this year just yet.

I guess the FO knows what they are doing as they got Ortega, Enlow and Garlick through waivers. Nice to have all three off of the 40 man and if performing well enough available if injuries strike. I thought Enlow was gone for sure but I guess other teams saw what I saw.... a lot of hard hit balls. Hopefully things look better in year two after TJ.

Nice OP! The Twins don't "have" to trade Kepler they could play him or Gallo in left. I agree with this piece that Max has a good skillset but we have been waiting years now for the breakout after 2019 and it has been pretty much the same old, same old. He could still breakout and have an amazing season but generally old habits die hard. Still finding a right handed bat helps balance the roster. If the Twins can get an over pay then I think they should pull the trigger on a trade but I wouldn't trade Max just to trade Max.

It seems there are a lot of different ways to approach international signings but I have to say this whole process confounds me. First taking a quick glance at most teams signings (don't have info on (LAD,MIA,PIT,STL,TEX) there are several teams (about 1/3) that just signed 1 player for about 3M to 4M or more (Cin,NYY,Oak,PHI,SD,SF,Sea,TB,Tor) and then a bunch of filler. So those teams are looking to essentially grab one highly rated player and a ton of lower level lottery tickets. So pretty much betting on the one player in a boom or bust scenario. The next most popular scenario appears to be to buy two or three 1M Dollar guys and supplement half a million dollar salaries or less and grabbing lots of players. (i.e. Ari,Bos,CHW,Cle,Det,KC,LAA,Mil,NYM,WSH). This spreads the risk to several athletes outside the top 20 but gives a team more chances to hit on athletes with good upside but maybe not showing elite talent at 16 years of age. Lot's of projection candidates in this range. The final scenario seems to be to get one guy in the 2 to 2.5M range and supplement another 1M player or several half million dollar players (i.e. Atl,Bal,CHC,COL,Hou). This is a scenario where teams seem to try to have their cake and eat it to. They sign an elite player and then an athlete or two with good upside and then a bunch of filler. The Twins fall in this range to an extreme this year as they appear to have signed 2 2M dollar players and third 1 million dollar player in an attempt to get two elite players in one draft and a solid player to boot. I like seeing the Twins going for the big talent this year but it is impossible to know how things will work out. One thing we know for sure is that no matter how much money gets thrown around only about 5% of these guys or less are going to make it. Not all the guys with the big signing bonuses are going to make it and not all the guys who got smaller bonuses are going to fail. It is way to hard to predict what is going to happen to 16 year olds over time but that is the system that is in place. The ratings are nothing more than somewhat logical guesses on current tools and body projection that could all change in a few years time. I had been told this quite a while ago but the Fangraphs article brought it to light again. Most of these deals are being made when these kids are actually only 14 years old. So my question is this. Do the various strategies above depend on the deals team were able to make when the players were 14 and let's say most of the player your team identified didn't quite turn out so you end up with lesser picks? Or do some teams muscle out other teams by spending essentially their whole international allotment on one player squeezing out other potential suitors? There seems to be a whole game with the game when it comes to international signings if you ask me. At any rate some of these guys are going to make it. I like the Twins picks this year though I wonder how they are going to fill out their team with so few picks this year since they blew most of their money on the first three picks. It might not be best for the players but it sure seems like a draft would be a better way to disperse international talent to MLB teams but that is just my opinion after looking into it.

Yeah that doesn't sound on the up and up does it. I have to agree with Boras which I am loathe to do but if that was what they were going to do then doesn't it follow that they were always gonna try and lowball Correa in some way? Why only half the contract value as well? They couldn't have done a deal like the Twins and pay for performance? Doesn't add up to me. Feels a little dirty but that is just my perception of it.

If he is willing to sign a minor league deal why not. He seemed to be getting better plate discipline but there is something off in his swing path or hand eye coordination as he swings through a lot of pitches. Also the umps do not seem to give him the benefit of the doubt on close calls. Maybe getting in line with the Robo umps could help him in the future. Twins don't have ton of right handed bats ready and no one coming up in the system for a while either. If Sano can perform at AAA then maybe he can thrive with a second chance?

I like the analysis but doctors have been right in the past especially Mets doctors as they nixed the trade for Paddack from the Padres and Paddack did end up needing TJ. Also a while back Houston got a ton of crap about trying to lowball Brady Aiken about likely needing TJ and he blew out his arm right away as well. As stated in the article doctors can be right and wrong we won't know for sure about Correa until the end of the contract.

With Garlick finally off the 40 man the Twins are down from 9 outfielders to 8 which is still too many outfielders to carry on the 40 man IMO. 6 would be ideal but 7 is fine. They really just need to trade Max unless they also want to bring in a right handed bat for the outfield. If they are fine with Farmer in a left field role then again they just need to remove one outfielder from the 40 man and they are fine. If the Twins do want to add a right handed bat to the outfield then they should probably look to trade Larnach or Wallner as well. They both appear to be similar players. I like that Larnach can hit oppo as I think that gives him a slight advantage bat wise but Wallner has the better arm. It is a tough call on that one but I think Larnach has more trade value and if they feel they want more 40 man room then I would look to trade him as well. Looking to next year as things stand they will likely need to add Rodriguez, Urbina, Martin and Maybe Severino so something is going to have give at some point. Personally I think they should move one of the outfielders and the only two that make much sense to move are Kepler and Larnach. We will see what Twins end up doing.

Wow If Paddack can return to form that is a huge get for the Twins. With 3 starters potentially gone after this year having Paddack for two more years should really help. If he doesn't return to form then that would be a bummer. Still I like this risk for the Twins. He was pitching really well before he went down and I think the Twins can help him regain his market value. Really need Varland and SWR to work out as the pipeline is getting thin on starting pitching, Paddack could help bridge the gap.

I have been watching Moran in the system for what seems like forever and have always been impressed with his K rate but the Walks eventually just brought my hopes for him down. I would not trust him in high leverage just yet but if he can harness his stuff just a bit more he could reach elite status. Been saying that for a long time and hopefully he is ready to prove he has the consistency to make it happen. We need all the great pen arms we can find.

I get your concern and don't disagree but Gray, Mahle and Ober all Spent time on the IL and Maeda is coming back from TJ surgery. While Lopez might be no better a pitcher he would be there for insurance. I wouldn't do the deal for Lopez if Arraez is included but Lopez sure could cover if the injury bug bites the Twins again.

I don't know if Arraez fits long term with the Twins or not and I get trading players at their peak value and this is Luis's peek value. However, it feels like dealing him this year is one year too early. Lewis is out until the end of the year. We don't know where Brooks Lee will land and Somewhat Luis clone with eye at the plate Jullien is unproven beyond AA. A lot of those questions should be answered after this year and then you could decide if there is still room for the little engine that could (Arraez). The Twins need his bat pretty badly this coming year and yes they could use better pitching as well but I think I would just hold off and see how things shake out and if needed do a deadline deal. I know that no one really wants Lopez but if the Twins can work a trade for Kepler and a little more to get him I think that would be prudent. When you look at the Berrios and Mahle deals they included players that were close to being MLB ready and players in or close to in the top 100. In this case the Marlins get an actual MLB player in Kepler and if they threw in Larnach who is technically another MLB player with lots of years of control and maybe a couple of lottery tickets that seems in range given some of these other deals. Don't like Larnach then how about Martin who is close to ready and can play infield and outfield. Maybe the Twins sweeten it by taking on some of the money to even the money out. I think that is a fair ask for two years of Lopez and that is something the Twins can afford IMO. If that isn't enough and it probably isn't then I am probably out on Lopez but if the Marlins can be flexible about working a trade around Kepler then I think that would help this team. Would a deal for Arraez to get Cabrera or Luzardo be worth it? Maybe. I don't know if I trust Luzardo but maybe Cabrera. Still Arraez would be a high price to pay and that is what it will cost to get one of those arms.

Correa just make this team stronger. Shortstop has generally always been a weakness for this club so turning that into a strength is important. I don't know why the bats were so up and down last year and why they seemed to fail with the bases loaded but there still is a lot of talent on offense and hopefully things go a bit better next year. The pen early and starting pitching after the deadline pretty much doomed this team. Buxton being hurt so early and trying to play through the knee issues hurt the team as well. Lot's of injuries last year so if they can just stay healthy and improve the pen a little this team should be fighting for the division. Without Correa this year was going to be tough. With him this team has a chance.