Dman
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Matt's Top Prospect List (Mid-Season) + Writeups
Dman commented on Matt Braun's blog entry in 80MPH Changeup
I think that is a solid list I really only have one major quibble. I think Rosario should probably be in the top 10 for hitters in the system. He is ahead of Schobel for OPS at high A. He is patient enough to have more walks than Schobel as well. Oh, and he is about two years younger. I get Schobel likely is a plus defender and I don't think Rosario ever will be but the hit tool trumps all tools and Rosario has one of the best in the Midwest league. I think you are too low on him.- 18 comments
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- brooks lee
- emmanuel rodriguez
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Twins Minor League Week in Review (7/3-7/16)
Dman replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Dameury Pena was an after thought in INTL free agency and he is far and away the most consistent hitter on that team and the best all around hitter as well. Wish I knew more about him as he looks like he is going to be a good one. The top signs from that draft class have not looked at all this year. At least not compared to last years class.- 7 replies
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- brooks lee
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Rumor: Will the Guardians Trade Aaron Civale?
Dman replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I think we will know more the closer to the deadline we get. If they are still only two and a half back I don't see them selling him off. With 2 and a half years left he would likely bring quite the haul but he is not a great pitcher and is injured a fair bit. I don't think he is an arm you want to rely on down the stretch but that is just me. If they are keeping Bieber they could certainly afford to deal Civale if the return peaked their interest. He feels like the odd man out at the start on next year if you ask me. If they are going to try and trade Bieber in the offseason it seems a little risky to get rid of Civale as well. They have depth but as they found out this year you need lot's of pitching depth to make it through the season. I still they hang onto him unless they get a pretty good haul. -
The Twins Should be Shopping Sonny Gray
Dman replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I just don't see the Twins getting the value they would need to give up the potential for a likely comp pick. I also am not sure Gray is the pitcher a lot of playoff teams would target for the cost in prospects it would likely require. Still anything is possible at the deadline. It would take a top 100 prospect and then some to get deal done though and if paying that the acquiring team would want to know the likelihood of signing him long term. Also as stated by many the Twins FO office would be wise to try to win the division as this team has underperformed and they need something positive to come out of this season. Things are adding up that they have been an underwhelming FO to this point so they need something to hang their hat on even if it is winning the weakest division in baseball. I think Gray helps them do that and if they can't sign him in the offseason then the comp pick helps down the road as well. -
First let me say thanks for this awesome draft article! Really wanted someone to put something like this out there. I really liked their draft and was happy it was pitcher heavy. Now lets hope everyone signs and turns out better than expected. I think if you just look at tools and potential Jenkins is the new number 1 in the Twins system. Will his hit tool play in pro ball that seemed to be the only question left in his profile on draft day. Like the OP I am excited to see what he can do. I know high school pitcher picks fail a lot but I do think I like the Soto pick the best in this draft class. He has true number one upside and the system is really low on arms with his kind of potential. I like the Tanner Hall pick a lot as well. If they can work that fastball he could be a mid rotation guy. That felt like a great pick for the 4th round. I am excited about Winokur but having seen Cavaco and Salas I don't know how much you can teach eye at the plate and good contact skills. It seems like you have them and generally have them early or you don't. Granted he hasn't had much for coaching and he has 5 tool potential but those types of picks seem to fail more often than succeed. Let's hope he ends up as good or better than Jenkins. Gonna be fun to follow all these guys,
- 23 replies
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- walker jenkins
- kade bragg
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How Can Jorge Polanco and Edouard Julien Coexist?
Dman replied to Greggory Masterson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I would rotate the three of Buxton, Jullien and Polanco. Buxton seems to need rest more often than not and if they really absolutely need him in lineup they can put him in center. Jullien could DH against righties, Buxton against lefties and some righties. Both could be good pinch hit options when not in the starting lineup as well. Polanco is just getting back so he and Jullien could time share second some as well and Polanco could move over to third once in a while as well. I think they can manage it that way for a while and see how it all plays out. Wouldn't hurt to give all three players some time off here and there anyway. -
I don't think Gray accepts the QO. While I don't think he hates it in Minnesota I don't get the feeling he loves it either. Unless retirement really is weighing heavily on his mind he will go for a three year deal. If he continua's to pitch as well as he has been until the end the of the year. I have to believe 20M per year is the floor. If he flounders down the stretch then maybe less hard to say with prices rising. If he is unsure about retirement he might want to just do a two year deal and try and up the AAV as that might really appeal to teams that think he will be hard pressed to do well in his 37 year old season. He should have two solid years of good to elite baseball left in him so maybe he works out a two year AAV of 25M or more and could go year to year after that. Honestly I see him back with the Reds next year as they need pitching help they know the kind of player they would be getting and they have the money to spend. His kids grew up there and love the team if he isn't going to retire I think that is where he ends up. I don't see the Twins getting a comp A pick as I think they are weighted on last years results as teams seem to switch from A to B almost every year. I can't remember the Twins ever getting a comp A two years in a row. I think B is the likely scenario. I also doubt the Twins would move up in the lottery again unless they have the luck of the Irish it was almost a fluke that they got it this year. Odds are they stand pat. If Gray could net them another supplemental 1st round pick that could help the team a ton. They would be in really good spots to pick pitching in those spots as hitters usually go first. Will have to see how some of the young kids do in the FCL but the Twins might not need much for hitters if the FCL kids plus Jenkins and maybe Winokur are starting in A ball. Thanks for the thought exercise but I think the middle looks about right just depends on what teams are willing to spend on Sonny.
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You look at Stevenson's stats from when he was with Washington and he has always been a good hitter. Doesn't look like he has the greatest arm for center but he runs really, really well. Sure seems like he could be an option at the MLB level especially with the way is playing right now. Kinda wish some of these guys that are playing well at AAA could get a chance but even though their stats are elite that group has been shut down when the other team has a good pitcher on the mound so not so sure how it all would translate to MLB. Still it makes you wonder. Always loved Prato. Lot's of things to like about his game especially in a utility role but that area is pretty blocked right now as well. Just gotta keep playing well and the HR's have to help his cause.
- 21 replies
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- yasser mercedes
- jorel ortega
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I went to the Cedar Rapids game in Beloit and they did not disappoint. The top three hitters in the lineup Schobel, Rodriguez and Rosario have one thing in common they all hit the ball very hard. Schobel's first hit was almost right at the 3rd baseman but it was hit so hard he didn't have a chance to get it. The whole lineup is good but those three seem on a different level. Emmanual Rodriguez's first two at bats were ugly. I get that every batter has tough at bats but I didn't like the aggressive approach he took striking out both times. It worked for his triple though as he ambushed a first pitch fastball that went all the way to the wall. Rosario has huge legs and he leans back heavily on his right leg as he gets ready to swing. He hit some hard long balls right at the left fielder that if he could put just a bit more juice on them would have left the park. He is fun to watch in the box. I guess I never realized how small Ortega was. I mean I knew he was small but I thought he might be a bit more thick as well not that he is skinny just didn't expect to see what I saw and he was ready to hit tonight and with power as I believe he had the only two HR's for the Kernals and he almost had three as one was just wide of the foul pole. He has some pop in that small frame and it was raining so not easy to push balls out last night but he was the only who did. Pretty impressive for a little guy. Was not overly impressed with Matthews. Beloit was hitting balls hard from the first pitch, but fortunately they hung up long enough for the outfielders to grab them and he finally ran out of luck in the 5th when he gave up two home runs. I will say when he rears back with that 94mph fastball it makes a pop in the glove and several hitters were late on that pitch. I think he does end up a reliever unless he can come up with something more to keep hitters off the fastball. He pitched well I was just hoping for more. It was funny to see Beloit have their right fielder almost in center when Miller was up to bat. They know he can't pull the ball and is often late on good fastballs. He needs to put some muscle on or find a way to speed up that swing at least from the left side or he is only going to be able to use half the field. He didn't have many plays to make in the because it was mostly fly balls with Matthews pitching. All in all they played really well Beloits pitcher mowed them down the first time through the order except Ortega who hit a HR, but he lost his control after that (possibly because of the rain) and the Kernals took advantage of that with a big 8 run inning. It was fun to watch them do so well. I left before their big 5 run inning as the rain was too much for me even though a small drizzle to start it came down harder at times. The Kernals have a really tough lineup to beat and the pitching is good too. Might be the most fun affiliate to watch with all the talent down there.
- 21 replies
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- yasser mercedes
- jorel ortega
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Don't disagree it is impossible to know what he might bring back. We just know it has to pass the bar of the comp pick unless of course the Twins and other teams believe this is his last year then maybe that price comes down which was my point from the beginning. Others believe his possible retirement would have no bearing on his deadline trade value but that doesn't make sense to me because if he retires after this year then the Twins lose that leverage of the comp pick bar in trade talks. The Twins get nothing if they can't strike a deal and other teams would know that. Still the Nat's got the Dodgers to overpay and they passed on comp picks and the Dodgers were prepared to let those players walk so it isn't impossible to still get that value from some team that is desperate enough but, that team has to really like your guy or they can find something comparable for cheaper. Is Gray a Sherzer\Turner type difference maker? Maybe? Still if you know Gray is retiring and the Twins desperate to move him why pay more? When you can likely get him for less which would still be better than nothing for the Twins.
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It is pretty much the same thing for Berrios and Lopez. Toronto doesn't give up two top 100 prospects for 1 1/2 years of Berrios if they don't know what it will take to sign him to a longer term deal. Twins likely don't trade Arraez if they don't know what it takes to sing Lopez longer term. When giving up large assets you don't want to walk away with nothing short term if you can help it. True rentals are a different story they are not top 100 guys. Most teams can't afford losing top 100 guys for a rental they would always want to know what it might take to get them to sign long term and if they can't make that happen then offer less for the player. Unless of of course you are one of the teams that can just buy what you need then it might not matter thinking the Dodgers when they paid a high price to get Sherzer and Turner and they both walked. For most teams though you offer less for a pure rental than a player you think you can work a longer term deal with.
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Well I can name one for sure and bet there are others. The Twins traded Escobar to Arizona for a pretty high level pitcher they didn't want to give up in Duran. Have to believe before pulling the trigger they had numbers in place to resign him in the offseason and they did jus that. Other wise they probably wouldn't have included Duran in the deal for a rental.
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I really love this guys attitude and his past success bodes well for his future. Just keep that arm healthy and he has a real good chance to make it IMO.
- 9 replies
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- tanner hall
- southern miss
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It does if they plan to re-sign him. The Twins would want more than normal for Gray as a rental as if he signs a deal over 50M then they get a first round comp pick. A team would be less inclined to part with a likely top 100 prospect if he plans to retire. They could still do it but I think the odds would be much lower.
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Yeah any thought of trading him now for a good return seems out of the question. Not that Twins would have traded him anyway but I think that statement is the nail in the coffin. Also might not for sure get comp pick either. Honestly I don't think he was all that serious. He is setup to make more in FA than he did all the years before I don't see him walking away from that. Still he said it for a reason so there is a chance he just walks away.
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If he can control the strike zone and end up with a plus hit tool this kid is going to a monster out there. Gonna be watching him on his way up through the minors.
- 21 replies
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- brandon winokur
- royce lewis
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2023 MLB Draft Day 3 Thread
Dman replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Yeah I remember that one. Glad the Twins didn't do that this year. I like all the position players they picked but still am happy they went pitcher heavy. Farm needed it and they don't seem to get much for arms from INTL free agency but do get bats. So draft seems to be the best way to get arms other than trades.- 82 replies
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- mlb draft 2023
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2023 MLB Draft Day 3 Thread
Dman replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Twins came prepped to take pitching this draft. They have been using a lot of guys from the independant league's so actually having more options with freshly drafted younger arms seemed necessary if you ask me. The Twins have been very good at balanced drafts but given the strenght of bats in the system and weakness of arms I think they needed an uneven draft to even that out. I have no idea if these late round arms are going to help much but given the quantity drafted odds are good they will find a few good ones. I really like their draft. Loved they went with high upside high school kids early. I Don't think I would have changed much. Some safe solid plays mixed in with higher risk players and good value in the 1st round. I think they did just fine. Just need to hope we can turn some of them into star players.- 82 replies
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- mlb draft 2023
- brandon winokur
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2023 MLB Draft Day 3 Thread
Dman replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
No angst they don't have to take a catcher at all in the draft just noting that they usually do and mainly in the bottom half. Only two picks left and they still haven't grabbed one. I just figured they would grab at least one. They can sign guys outside the draft as well I just thought they would do their normal thing but looks like I am going to be wrong.- 82 replies
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- mlb draft 2023
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