Dman

Baseball is a business and will always be run like a business. The owners aren't in business to lose money. Last year I thought there would be a lot of pressure to trade Kepler because I never saw the Twins keeping Payroll at 156M. It always felt like 140M was the break even point to me. Granted I have no idea what the numbers are, but that seemed like a number that would be tough to pass IMO. I give them credit for stretching to 156M, but with the TV deal collapsing and the thinking being that they can maybe recoup half that it makes sense for them to bring it down at least 20M if not slightly more if 156M was the break even point. I do agree with the OP though in that we (the fans) suffered through a long rebuild and were fine with the team not spending big money in free agency because there were so many holes to fill that one or two players just wasn't going to be enough to make a difference. I said at that time it was fine for them to pull back on spending if they would spend heavy when the team was in contention. Well this team is right there with a lot of playoff teams so it would be nice that even if they have to take a loss financially they give back to the fans that follow this team through thick and thin when they finally have a good team. I get that spending money guarantee's nothing just look at what happened to the Padres last year, but it sure can help solidify a team. This team is close and now is not the time to shrink back investing in it IMO.

I was surprised at just how good Lewis was his first season. Will know more after AA but he seems like he has top of the rotation potential. Just hoping the Twins hang onto the four horseman of Lewis, Culpepper, Morris, and Matthews. They already helped Cedar Rapids win two division titles and a league championship. Hoping they keep growing together and become rotation options at the MLB level at some point.

If you can't get excited about a 21 year old hitter winning MVP of his league you might as well stop following prospects because they can't play any better than that. How many Twins prospects have won MVP honors? He was better at a younger age than Daulten Rushing the Dodgers number 1 prospect. Sure the kid can improve on his plate discipline, but his approach was good enough as is, to win MVP honors ahead of the Dodgers number 1 prospect. If you ask me 11 is too low for this kid. I don't know if anyone on here has watched him but he has a nice setup at the plate leaning on his back leg to uncoil and launch baseballs. We'll know more once he hits AA as he will be challenged with more and better breaking stuff. Still he is the only right handed outfield bat with power close to the majors I don't think the Twins will be interested in trading him. If he meets the challenge at AA he could be a top 5 player in the Twins top 30 this time next year.

Yeah significant is relative. If that means top of the rotation starter then I would say I am way off. To me it means borderline top 100 prospect or another major league piece back.

That is a great deal for Chicago. I know most of those players haven't performed recently, but that still seems like a massive overpay for Bummer to me especially after his numbers last year and injury history. Sox likely struck gold with that deal if even one of the four\five work out.

Thanks for the correction! I thought he was still there. Will change my post.

When players get in a funk at the plate hitting coaches become important, but they can only do so much. The talents the players have and the team philosophy have more impact IMO. The Twins have drafted and developed their players to have power in their profile by focusing on exit velocities. Since the new FO took over they haven't been afraid to swing hard even in two strike counts. They are not afraid to K. When Rowson came over I believe it was Cruz's first year with the team. I am not sure who had more influence over the Bomba squad that year. Cruz was generally a patient hitter who waited for his pitch and wasn't afraid to swing hard at all times. It seemed like his mentorship might have been as important or maybe even more important than Rowson for that team. That being said the hitting coach generally gets more blame than deserved when players struggle and too much praise when the overall team is providing good offense. To me their main role is that psychological role of helping players get out of slumps. Looking at tape together. Providing a sounding board to work through things together. Not sure how good Rowson is at all that, but there really is only so much a hitting a coach can do. The player has to have the skills to hit.

I think those time frames look rock solid unless injuries change the timeline. The only two that would be wobbly for me are Rodriguez and Schobel. If Rodriguez is his typical .900 OPS self at AA to start the season and the Twins have a need in the outfield I do see a path for him in 2024 but lot's of things have to go right for him for that to happen. Schobel was very up and down last year. He really struggled at AA which is the toughest leap for hitters until they hit the Majors IMO. Given the struggles it might take more than one year to conquer AA and then AAA. Will just have to wait and see. If he starts AA like he did High A then he too has an outside chance at the Majors in 2024 although the clogged infield makes that less likely. I like the proposed dates if things turn out as expected. Still there will likely be variance because development doesn't always work the same way for each player.

Gallo set a pretty low bar last year, but if Severino barely clears that I don't think he makes a ton of sense. I think the Twins are looking for more production from the position. We just don't know what Severino can do against MLB pitching. The K rate isn't ideal nor the walk rate. It would take a deeper dive into the numbers to get a sense of how reliable he might be which is why I think they go with a veteran to start the season. I like the premise of the article though. I think in time if he can drop the K rate some he is a perfect 1st baseman. He has the power for the position and being a switch hitter it gives him an advantage no matter who is on the mound. He also makes for a nice pinch hitting option and DH. He has hit well the last two years but the jump to MLB ball is a big one. If they want to save some money and a roster spot I could see them giving it a try to start the season, but depending on rookies is a risky business. HIs numbers stumbled some even at AAA. I doubt he is someone they depend on to start the season.

I think the Twins are in the best shape they have been for starters heading into the offseason. I think they need one more starter though as that could give the bullpen a boost by putting Varland in the pen. I am hoping Festa looks like a usable option as the season wears on. He has the stuff, but he does seem to wear down as the pitch count mounts. Ohl is a wild card. He doesn't appear to have much for plus pitches, but he attacks and gets the job done. If that carries over to AAA he could help later in the season as well. Raya has ton's of plus pitches but tends to still give up too much contact. If he improves that this year he might be the best of the bunch. Not sure how many innings he can go, but he could be a pen arm down the stretch if needed. A lot has to go right for Festa, Ohl, Raya to contribute, but at least the potential is there. I don't trust the backup pen arms in Sands, Winder, Balazovich, Headrick, and Henriquez. They all were inconsistent last year. The FO was depending on those arms to improve, but they stayed flat IMO. Those guys need to bring it this year as Festa, Ohl, Raya and possibly Lewis are nipping at their heals. I am hoping the Twins can find at least one more veteran arm for the pen and preferably a high end one. Also hoping Canterino comes back strong and take a role in the pen as well. As this article points out the Twins have never had this level of higher quality pitching depth probably ever. Still they need to keep improving.

Sound reasoning. I agree on the OPS a .100 drop is usually the minimum .150 to .200 the norm at least that first year and sometimes worse than that. I agree the BABIP is high and unsustainable .320 to 330 is generally the best you can get away with with if you have good contact skills. Dropping 50 to 60 points of average would hurt even with the good slugging and since he is mainly a doubles guy and not a HR hitter that BABIP could sap some slugging as well. Still his OBP was good for an extra .150 points so dropping some average not the end of the world given the eye at the plate. As I well know and others pointed out adding position players on the 26 man for a year is much harder than hiding a reliever. The Twins have lost a few though over the years Baddoo being the most recent. The Twins protected the right 4 guys. Just have to wait and see if someone grabs Prato or not. Next years Rule V will have more pitchers on it with Raya, Festa and Ohl, possibly MaCleod and Hidalgo depending on the years they have and maybe Mooney again depending on if he stays healthy and performs. Rosario, Olivar and Cardenas will be in the running as position players and with Cardenas and Olivar being catchers they will have to be really careful if they decide not to add them. 40 man spots are valuable so I can see why they didn't add him. My thinking is was that they are likely trading Polanco and likely one of Kepler or Farmer and they still have two spots left so it seemed safe to add Prato for the year, but obviously they have different plans.

I wasn't a believer when they first picked him as he was barely an average runner and it looked like he would be moved off the position, but he quickly made me a believer with the good picks and strong accurate throws. The bat is still a work in progress, but if he finds that stroke this kid could be the All Star Shortstop we have been waiting for. Congrats on the well deserved gold glove and making us Twins minor league followers proud!

There are so many reason's not to add him If they would have added him I would have had a lot of questions. Reason's not add 1) A very high K rate 2) A one dimensional player that doesn't look great at 1st base and seems more suited to DH 3) Severino looks like a better fit for first base than Sabato and the Twins just added him 4) He is slow 5) I don't think another team would take him. Reasons to add. 1) He can work the count and take walks 2) His exit velocities are very good and generally lead to HR's. Still I don't think that is enough to make things work at the MLB level as he has to get the K rate down and the bat needs to be Elite or close to it to make it worth adding him as he adds no defensive value.

Yeah I thought about that too, but do you remember how Wallner started out his AA year in 2022? It was equally as bad with a higher K rate (I think he was approaching a 50% K rate?). Early season and colder weather can lead to some misleading results IMO. Once Wallner got it together it hasn't left him. Hard to say the same will hold true for Prato just yet, but like I said the balanced walk and K rate is key indicator of success as players move up. It is a good trend and he likely figured something out just like Wallner did. It is a risk both ways. For the Twins the added issue is they have Lee for whatever Prato's role would be so they might think they can afford the Rule V risk as he has to stay on 26 man roster of another all year. If he stinks next year then they don't have to try and get him through waivers and just let everything play out. They know him better than I do, as do other scouts so I could be dead wrong. The AAA line is strong and while he waivered some in August he came back with a nice September. I am the glass half full guy that thinks he is starter material somewhere and or at least a valuable trade asset if he proves himself this year.

Yeah I get your point and I do hope that is the case but Helman's numbers especially at AAA weren't nearly as balanced as Prato's. Prato's BA is .300 and he K's and Walks almost the same. Helman hit .250 with only a 9% walk rate. There were more warts there IMO. Prato's line is ideal and shows no weakness at AAA. The auto strike zone\tighter zone at AAA certainly could have caused the improvement for Prato, but that is still a pretty exceptional line IMO. He is only 25 so not that old. It is hard to carry position players on the 26 man but for a team that likely is playing a lot of young players like the A's he seems like a really good fit.

I think they are going to regret not adding Anthony Prato. When you look at those balanced AAA numbers you realize he could be a special bat. Not sure if anyone else saw that the Brewers gave up two top 30 prospects for the privilege of adding Oliver Dunn whose numbers at AA aren’t quite as good as Prato’s AAA numbers. Sure it could just be one good year and Prato's numbers could fall off but balanced K and walk rates generally lead to MLB success. If I were Oakland this is a player I make sure to grab in Rule V. Floor is utility player ceiling could be starter IMO.

Thanks for this article! I was trying to piece together their trade value relative to the FA market. It felt like they should be in demand and this article seems to confirm what I felt. I hate to see either one or both go, but depending on the return it could help the team long term. Nothing will probably happen until the free agent market dries up, but I have to believe the offers for Kepler and Polanco should be significant.

Yeah and don't forget Spencer Steer and CES who did pretty well for the Reds. They were Twins picks and developed in house just traded away. That is five rookies with over 800 OPS's. That's pretty darn good! Not sure I have a ton of confidence in the lighter hitting Martin and the K prone, doesn't walk much Severino and Camargo. They have issues that generally get exposed at the MLB level. Honestly I think Prato has better under lying numbers than all of them. I guess if it is glass half full though they all look close to ready and we can hope they transition well. I just wouldn't bank on it.

I think the best "potential value" they can receive will be by getting prospects. As noted his value isn't all that high. He is a pretty clutch performer and the switch hitting is a nice benefit as well. The injuries though have sapped his value to some degree. Packaged with another good player with years of control in the system could net some decent pitching. It doesn't seem like the Twins are looking for bottom rotation starter though and top of the rotation is tough to get. They might be able to line up with the Brewers getting one year of Burns. Polanco and maybe one of the four 2022 pitchers who performed well would possibly get a deal done? Not sure what all it would take to get Burns but Polanco has to be an appealing get for the Brewers.

It feel like Garver has been what he always was with the Twins. As a catcher always hurt, but when healthy one of the better bats in baseball. The Twins needed to solve their shortstop situation and as mentioned if they didn't trade Garver they don't get Correa. With that in mind I think the Twins win that trade. If you want to evaluate just on the pieces they received then I feel like they got taken. Garver has a power bat and was likely to outperform both players whether he remained at catcher or not. Henriquez has been a disaster to this point. No longer being a starter really makes that trade look weak on a player for player(s) level. Given that in the end they better balanced the roster I will give the edge to the Twins.

Nice summary Doc. I agree. He hits the ball hard and that is why his BABIP is slightly higher. He has had a decent average in the past so bat to ball skills aren't horrible. Just needs to tighten up that K rate and he looks like a very valuable player to me. Even with that K rate he might be able to Gallo his way into an MLB job. I want to see him more at AAA and would not depend on him as a 1st base solution for this season at the MLB level, but his future looks bright at that position if he continues to improve. With the K rate I don't think his trade value is super high. I would give him another year and we should know where he is at mid season. Maybe he is good enough to be a young gun call up. Will have to wait and see.

Given that if the Brewers just hang onto him Burnes would get them a sup 1st round pick the price to get him is going to be high. Likely going to take a top 100 prospect. I didn't see the Brewers as seller's, but they must feel they need more difference making talent than what they have.

Yeah that is a solid approach. You look at Larnach, Gordon, and some players that didn't even make it that far and realize you can't bank on those players making the jump. It took Castro three years to have a good season and it was about replacement level. Every once in a while you get a guy like Jullien who produces from the start. I think Lewis is in there as well but even with his heroic performance it is such a SSS it still makes me question. So yeah you cannot come into a season banking on prospects. I don't think the FO will do that, but I think the 2024 team might end up weaker than the 2023 version. Still a lot of offseason to go and they have made some amazing moves in past seasons. I probably shouldn't be so negative, but moving the payroll numbers lower doesn't give me good vibes.

I agree with this and am prone to thinking\hoping prospects will make a difference, but there are so few difference making prospects that become All Stars one has to be careful of the rose colored glasses. Solid players count, but as @chpettit19 has mentioned it takes a core of special players to get the job done when going for a world series title. My rose colored glasses approach for 2025 has Lee, Rodriguez and Rosario added to the young core of Lewis, Jullien and Wallner. Lee and Rodriguez are top 100 prospects so definitely a solid chance to be star players I have Festa, Ohl and Raya as MLB ready arms with possibly Lewis, Morris and Culpepper as options as well. With a younger deeper core it seems like they could make trades or buy what they need to get over the hump for a series run To your counter point. I thought Balazovich, Winder, Henriquez and Duran were all going to be starting pitcher's after their AA and AAA results. They all are in the bull pen now and if they don't perform soon might not even be on the team in the future.. Projecting young talent especially starting pitching generally works out less often than you would like (i.e. SWR, Enlow). The list is much longer for failure than success. So I get your concerns. While the pundits say the Twins farm is weak they tend to under rate our players especially the lower draft picks. Spencer Steer wasn't even a top 100 prospect and he was in the running for rookie of the year. CES didn't really get a chance to get on the top 100 before being traded but another good bat the Twins found later in the draft. Ohl isn't even in the Twins top 30 and his numbers were close to Lewis as he came in number 2. I think the Twins will come up with more of those types of players in the future. Guys with that level of potential in the wings would be Severino, Martin, Schobel, Ross, Cardenas. I get it when you are always looking to the future you never make a move for the present. Still, I just don't see a path for this team to be much better than last years team until more young players establish themselves especially if they are dropping the limit from 150M to a likely 130M.

I believe this is my line of thinking as well. You have a good player but capable replacements in line for his position. Said player is getting older but has good trade value and you need pitching help this year. Payroll appears to be shrinking. Just like with Arraez try and better balance the roster by strengthening an area of weakness by moving an area of perceived surplus to an area that needs more help. I don't completely disagree with @chpettit19. I really get what he is saying and agree we come up short in the lineup as constructed when looking at teams in contention for a world series. I agree with him that the risk of young players is real and I have my concerns about sophomore slumps for Lewis, Jullien and especially Wallner who played most of his games against under 500 competition\lessor teams. Still I also don't think we can buy our way to where we would "need" to be without approaching the 200M level. The other issue\risk not addressed by @chpettit19 is there is also risk with older players as they get injured easier and generally take longer to heal. Even though they are good they don't always contribute the same year to year either. Honestly I don't think this team as currently constructed has much of a chance at a world series and personally I think the core needs more refinement or serious growth from the younger players to get there. Will have to see what the FO comes up with before getting too far ahead of myself, but like @chpettit19 mentioned, it is hard to see how this team gets better by subtracting good players. Call me overly optimistic but I think this team is close to being something special. I am not sure it all comes together in 2024, but I am bullish on 2025 and beyond if they don't trade the farm away.