Dman

I might regret saying this, but if the return was right for a catcher or legit centerfielder I'd trade one of jax or Duran, I think the team can withstand losing one of those top end arms if it brings back something they really need. I'd like to think that between, Castro, Bader and Coulombe they get get back some near ready relief arms from other clubs to help make up for the lose of an arm there. Still it has been nice to have a strong pen and messing with that makes me uneasy, but if you are going to trade a reliever that covers just one inning that seems like a good play. I am torn a bit on that one. I wouldn't just trade to trade as they have years of control left. If you get a good overpay with things we need included I think I'd do that.

I do feel a distinction needs to be made about deadline deals. When teams are trading for rentals the buyer's aren't planning on "winning" those deals long term. The worst the sellers can do is get nothing in the end, but they can get good players out of those deals and they have leverage because they have something the buyer needs. The buyer's motivation at the deadline is that assets that don't help the team in the current moment are expendable to make the team more playoff ready. So when you look back at deadline deals unless that team won a world series because of their deadline acquisition's (Atlanta. etc.) they are going to lose those deals long term every time and they are fine with that. The goal is to prep the team for a world series run so they don't care if they "lose" these deals if it helps them strengthen the team. Granted it doesn't always go according to plan as only one team will be the winner, but I think the motivation is important to remember when "grading" these deals.

I would think it would be hard to get a 50 AV player for a rental or even multiple rentals. It's possible that Suarez might net something like that from the right team as he has a top to 10 OPS bat in all of MLB. Cruz brought a larger return than most anticipated for the same reason. We've seen big bats carry teams in the playoffs before so I can see the alure of the overpay for something like that for Seattle or Milwaukee. I think depending on need some rentals could command a 45FV player in a sort bidding war but it seems most transaction are for 40 or 40+ FV players sometimes multiple players with someone fairly close and flyer on someone further away. I would love to know if someone has done research in this area. Not all available players are equal in value so might be just too subjective to measure.

Wondering if the Twins could package Stewart and Castro in a bid to get the catcher Janek from Houston? With all their injuries they might be fairly desperate to land Castro and.Houston doesn't want to cross the luxury tax threshold. Both players would come cheap enough to keep them under the threshold. They also are looking for lefty bats so maybe they prefer Larnach to Stewart hard to say, but if the Twins could get a legit catcher in the system that would be nice.

And that might be the most important thing. It should give them time to bring young players up, get them acclimated and find out who looks like they might possibly be ready and who doesn't which will also play into what they think their needs will be in the offseason. They also might get some guys in these trades that they can try out as well. They need to make changes and create more depth. They ran it back from last year and it didn't work. Need some other players to step up. Might as well find out who that might be when the season is lost versus next year when hopefully they are a more consistent team out of the gate. Won't have time to try guys out then as every game will count.

Cody, thanks for these articles. Always fun to guess what a players value on the market is. you always hope that a deadline player you have is needed by several teams to up the potential return. We will see what we get. They have to be sellers being 5.5 games back with 3 games to go to the deadline.

Well said and I totally agree. Now let's just hope the returns are things that can help this team fairly soon.

He'd be handy guy for teams to have. 2.4 WAR already. A nice right handed bat with power. Great teammate. He is going somewhere the only question is where.

I pretty much agree with what everyone above had said. I would add that 33 isn't "that old" for a relief arm. Lot's of those guys go to mid to late 30's and are still effective. While Stewart has some warts and injury history if you are a team looking for a very effective reliever on a cheap deal I'd look pretty hard at Stewart. Even with the injury risk you can see when he is managed correctly he is one of the most effective arms out there. He's got the stuff. So if I am the Twins I'm not letting go of that easily. They don't like to pay big money for relievers and it's hard to find arms that produce like Stewart. So it takes a pretty large overpay to get that deal done IMO. Certainly less than a Jax or Duran since he has the injury risk. but I'd want something I need not just a trade to trade because he is valuable to this team and a hard value to find.

You don't see a triple play everyday. Had to watch it three times. That's the kind of play that makes a pitcher very happy. Nice to Eeles hitting for some power. His batting average is always right around .300 so if he can get his slugging up the Twins will have to take notice. Prielipp pitched well Nice to see a line like that. It seems like he is carrying his stuff deeper into games. So hopefully he is getting stronger in that regard. Nice win by the FCL club. I generally don't pay much attention to that league as I don't know a lot of players and a lot of them wash out there. They have had an amazing season. Hope they can finish off with a championship.

Yeah I don't know if the Twins dare move Castro until Something happens with Suarez. Teams will be saving their prospects for him. That is a nice bat for a playoff team. Could\should be difference maker type bat. I am betting they wait until the end to deal him unless some team overpays early. Unless some teams main priority is Castro and the Twins have a sense for what other teams might give up Castro could go earlier, but he is second fiddle to Suarez IMO.

Kind of hoping for a bidding war for Castro's services, but we will see. He is the literal missing piece for Milwaukee. I'd over bid if I were them given they have so few weaknesses. Willie is position player insurance for pretty much every position. There just aren't many guys that can cover so many spots and bat close to an .800 OPS and even steal bases for you. I'd look for a surprising return somewhere around what Cruz got. Not saying the Twins would get another Joe Ryan but the quality of prospects could be in that range. So I'd say the packages here look light to me, but they seem close for most rentals. I just think Castro isn't most rental's.

The under-rated John Klein with another solid outing. I have had him as my dark horse arm that can be a legit MLB pitcher, but man he can give up some awfully hard contact at times. Still if you look at his line it is strong all the way around. I wish there was more information about what he throws etc., but for now he looks good to go to the next level to me. Bummer on Raya. I just start getting behind him again and he tanks again. It's frustrating. He has plus pitches, but is still giving up solid contact. I watched him the other night and he looked poised on the mound. he looked in control. Still the results aren't there. You would think that with the movement he has they could develop a better plan for how to use it. Ober did what Ober does. Hopefully he is back to full health and mechanic's are figured out. Will echo others on Julien. He seems to be back and has been back for a while now. He likely has earned another shot at first. We'll see how the deadline goes. Also not sure if anyone else noticed, but Andy Lugo has .870 OPS at High A. Still only 28 games or so, but nice to see the 21 year old doing well at that level.

Yeah totally agree. I think he can probably net a 40+ type and maybe a lotto if the bidding is strong enough. I like your idea of a hard throwing relief type arm. Not a ton of those in the system and if we are already talking about moving on from Jax and Duran gonna need some replacement arms. Might as well start stacking them up and hopefully a few make it.

I agree. Ryan is an All Star why wouldn't he bring back an All Star in return? If a team isn't offering that then where is the impetus for the Twins to trade Ryan at all? It is really, really hard to develop a top of the rotation arm let alone an All Star caliber one. Trading Ryan for a bunch of magic beans doesn't make much sense and as others have mentioned sets our team back probably two years at least. I don't know that I love the idea of trading Jax or Duran, but if the return nets them things they need I am OK with it. That feels far less crippling than trading Ryan.

While I don't completely agree with the OP's narrative about Pressley I will say I think Duran is a rare Freak arm and is going to be a dominant closer for a long time. I don't think he is completely replaceable. Certainly not easily replaceable, but the Twins can develop other arms for the role and not be too far off. Jax and Varland look like candidates to mitigate that potential loss. To the other point the article brought up. This pen as constructed is pretty dominant right now. Taking pieces out could change the pen from a strength to a weakness again and I don't think this team is too far away from contending for next year. So if they do trade they had best make sure it was worth it.

Agreed! Did we even score any runs in those games? No reliever needed IIRC certainly not a closer. And as an aside were the Twins going to extend him? They don't generally pay big bucks for relievers. So they would have lost him for nothing anyway.

Julien isn't a great fit at 2nd and locking him into 1st and or DH seems less than ideal at this point given the bats we have coming up. Having no options left makes things even tougher IMO. If they could get a decent deal or use him as a throw in to get a deal done at this point I think I'd do that. Hadn't thought about Martin, but it seems like Keaschall is going to usurp his playing time as a likely 2nd base, center fielder, 1st baseman, type. I don't think it makes sense to have two of those types on the team and there are others like Schobel, DeBarge, Culpepper and Eeles etc that could fill his role shortly as well. Again if they can get a decent return for him I'd probably do it. I just can't see any value for Miranda. He has destroyed his value not being able to hit at AAA. They are not in a roster crunch right now so they could keep him and see if he can look better or if a team has interest at this point I'd probably take whatever I can get. He'd need to be a first baseman and he doesn't move well and hasn't really hit for power in a while now. It's getting late to prove himself. I just don't see the fit for the Twins anymore. So yeah I could see the Twins moving on from them. Maybe getting lottery ticket arms in return or adding them to other deals. I could also see them keeping them to give them one last shot. Hard to say at this point. Still if I were them and could get something marginally good I would do it.

He is 29 next year so at this point given what he has shown a likely platoon bat. Only so much you can get for that. I am still bullish on him, but with Rodriguez likely on the way and other plyers they can plop in left I don't see him as a great fit for the Twins moving forward. I still feel like his best days are ahead of him, but I could be wrong. This could be pretty much who he is at this point. I always have those rose colored glasses on with Twins prospects. At any rate he isn't a fast runner. He isn't a great defender and he hasn't shown a ton of home run power. Whoever wants him would have to feel he is tweak away from getting to more power. If the Twins could get an offer similar to what the Guards gave up. I'd think that was probably a fair trade at this point.

It depends. Can they get something they need for them? I wouldn't just trade to trade. They don't need another second baseman and I would argue don't need a shortstop right now. They have three outfielders arguably in their top 5 prospects so whoever they get would have to be really, really good to beat out the two that are already in top 100 lists. A catcher would be ideal because they don't have much in the system there and if they don't plan on paying Jeffers he might be gone after next year. Can always use quality arms, but teams are hard pressed to give them up, but that could be a focus. Whatever they get has to be greater than what they would get from one of the games elite closers who will likely continue to be one of the best in baseball the next three years and beyond. The team trading for Duran or Jax is getting a known quantity. The Twins are getting a maybe on two guys that might be great, good, or not work out at all. In let's make a deal, hopefully they choose the right door. The risk is on their end IMO so they need to ask for a lot.

But that does seem to be what the Twins are asking for according MLB trade rumor's.

Yes I am still calling Larnach and Wallner "young" guys and they have quite a bit of experience now. Still I was expecting improvement and Wallner regressed and Larnach is maybe just slightly better this year but still not enough better IMO. Maybe they aren't young anymore, but still needed more from them.

It's a team sport so every area of the team has failed at some point this season. The bullpen was bad early in the year. The rotation was bad a little after the first month. The lineup never was all that great except for that 13 game winning streak when the pitching and hitting were phenomenal. If I had to blame one area it would be the lineup. The hitting just wasn't good enough and I too believed the younger bats would have shown more improvement by now and they really haven't. I will say I thought Correa might be the missing piece this team needed to get over the hump. A player with a great defensive reputation that seemed good to OPS around .800 every year. I knew the large contract would hamstring the team in the future, but looking at the numbers at the time it seemed like a one of the safer bets you could make on a player. Being a top of the order bat his decline severely limited this team IMO. He was near automatic out at the top of the order. I'm not saying it's all on him, but I expected much more from a former all star and veteran player. To top it off his defense hasn't been that great either. Still for all the warts everywhere this team just felt a bit snakebit. When the offense clicked the pitching wasn't good. When the pitching was great the offense couldn't even score a run. Lot's of one run losses to start the season. A close but no cigar kind of year. A just good enough to lose team early in the year. For me I don't really blame the FO for the mess. I too wanted to see the young players play and expected maybe not rapid improvement but improvement. I wanted the Correa signing despite knowing it would hamstring payroll. I too thought after last years collapse things were likely to be better this year. It looked close at times but just too many areas blew up at inopportune times and here we are a middle of the pack team with lot's of questions. I still think they have to roll with the young guys and see who shakes out. It seems like Correa is coming around and this is the time of year he normally gets hot, but we'll see. Getting the younger arms some more experience and maybe some bats too would be helpful. They need the young players to rise up to complete the team so hopefully that happens. It's young players or bust like a lot of the lower payroll teams because they can't buy their way out of this mess and while hope is not a strategy it looks like that might be all we have left right now.

Does this mean I have to take back all my mean comments about Paddack? He pitched great today against a really good lineup. I thought he was going to get shelled, but other than the Ohtani mistake ball he was fantastic. Where has this guy been the last 3 or 4 times out? The Twins certainly had them on the ropes. If Jax simply executes and throw's strikes to the guy that can't hit they probably win this one. A tough loss, but It was a fun series as we were in it every game. Washington at home with our Ace on tap so they should win that series.

Looks like those saving went to Barr the JC pitcher and Ellwanger. From what I can see there isn't enough saving to get Agbayani to the 500 or 600K they likely need to sign him unless they use the 5% that they can go over. Unfortunately they have never done that before so unless that changes it looks like he will remain unsigned to me.