Dman

Give the Mets credit offering their 2nd and 6th best prospects but the offer seems pretty underwhelming to me. I know Mauricio is their 2nd rated prospect but he is no solid shortstop prospect to me. In fact we have a better version of him at AAA and his name is Jose Miranda. Ginn looks more like a Jax type pitcher than a a front line starter. His K rate for the level is poor as it shows he lacks dominance. Santos is young for the level but more a lottery ticket wild card IMO. If that is the best they can offer I think we would have to look elsewhere. Those guys don't match up IMO. If healthy I could see maybe trading for Matt Allen, Pete Crow Armstrong, and Ginn. There you would be getting a potential front line starter in Allen. a potential Solid to elite centerfielder and a possible back of the rotation starter. The thing is that trade depends on how you feel about Allen's arm as he is currently injured and how that arm holds up in the future. If you are OK with the Allen risk I think that is a deal more likely to get it done.

Do you think this has to do with what the Twins saw the Red Sox get in the Betts trade? They got Verdugo who essentially was a starter at the MLB level and couple of solid prospects to boot for one year of Mookie Betts. I have to believe the Twins think they deserve a similar deal for one and half years of Berrios. Maybe they can be talked down from that but I have to believe they feel that is what the market will bear for a player of his caliber.

Seth thanks for these recaps I know I really appreciate them. I was most impressed by your players of the week. Balazovichs last start was pure domination. He looked really good as the hitters has no idea where the ball was going to go and several just stood there taking called third strikes. He looked like a guy who could make it as front of the rotation starter. Rooker was amazing with the HR's last week. I still have my concerns but he looks better than ever at AAA so hopefully he brings that forward with him to MLB. He is on the 40 man he needs to prove he belongs there. Nice to see some of our pitchers coming back (Sands, Rijo) hopefully they look good the rest of the way. With all the pitching injuries our affiliates have been depleted of starters. Happy to see all teams above 500. Shows the Twins have a balanced system right now.

Berrios was always going to be a tough sign as he always wanted to wait for free agency. If the Twins were ever going to get him to sign an extension they needed to do it when the Yankees signed Severino. The Twins were too chicken to do deals like that. When they couldn't extend him last year I knew for sure they had no chance. Well at least the FO knows where they stand, Hopefully they make a good decision and come out of this OK. The odds are against them though. If they trade at the deadline and the players don't work out it will be a big black mark if they only get him for 2022 and that year is bad too then they look even worse possibly negligent or incompetent. They are in a tough spot but they had to see this coming.

I don't know what this team is going to do once Nelson Cruz is gone. He had the big HR and a productive sac fly for two of the three RBI's. I have had my doubts about Jax but the way he pitched today gives me hope. Three K's to start the game against a very good lineup he looked great out there. To bad about the blister as they generally take at least a couple of weeks to heal up but he gave them enough to get the win. I hope he can prove to be a part of the future we need all the pitching we can get.

If they can't extend Berrios and Buxton then they might as well play for 2023. Putting all their chips in by keeping Berrios and Buxton one more year seems pointless. I think 2022 is a pipe dream as they need too much pitching. If they make trades while in a strong position they have a chance to rebound once they get their young pitching established likely in 2023 or 2024. Heck they might get pitchers in trade that can help accelerate that transition. It just feels like there are too many holes on the pitching side to contend next year and if they lose Berrios and Buxton for draft picks that just means the timing might be off for their present wave two of prospects. If they can extend Buxton and Berrios then fine they are good players that they should have long enough to play with the second wave. Go for it in 2022 and beyond.. Get your lotto tickets for this years rentals and try to build up the young pitching in 2022 and hopefully there is enough there to take us somewhere in 2023 or 2024.

It is just an opinion. I think he wanted a good offer from the Twins earlier. I think Rosario wanted an offer and never got one. I think when you have to wait for an offer you feel reflects your value\market value you get a feeling the FO doesn't believe in you. I think that hurts but, yes to your point pretty much from day one he always said he was betting on himself. He might harbor no ill will at all I have no idea but I think odds are there is tension there.

Yeah I think that statement "I have been waiting 6 years" says a lot. Reading between the lines it says the Twins have been low balling me when they had leverage and by waiting now I have the upper hand. Let's see how they (Twins) like pressure coming the other way. I think there is some animosity there personally. He said the right things like that he is willing to sign an extension with the Twins but I think he already knows they aren't going to give him market value so I agree with your first statement in his mind he is already gone. Even if they know they can't sign him I still don't know if the FO will trade him at the deadline or not. They might need him next year just to keep their jobs so will be interesting to see how this plays out. Given his statements above if the Twins can get anything close to a good deal for him they should take it. This deadline they will get the best offers they will ever get for him. Losing that for a mere draft pick seems like a bad play IMO.

My guess is they offered him 200K or something and he is like well if I go back and do well I could get 300K or better. If I fall back down to 11 then I likely won't lose that much. So I can see him thinking\feeling he can have another fun year at college and likely increase his net worth to boot. Downside is he gets severely injured and maybe gets nothing but odds have to be low something like would happen. He thinks he should have gone around the 5th round so probably wants close to 5th round money. That would put him in the $300k to $400k category I assume the Twins weren't up for that? It is surprising because from what I was reading most teams make sure most of the guys in their top 20 are going to sign and they want to be sure all of their top 10 guys will sign. I would have thought the Twins would know what it would take to sign him. There had to be a number that would make it worth it to him. I wonder why that ended up being short?

Interesting list. Surprised Kirilloff is so high and Kepler so low. I kind of thought Simmons was going to be lower as he seemed to have his fair share of gaffs this year but I guess I am not appreciating what he does as much as I should. Have to Say I was very surprised to see Eddie's name up there. Happy to see him doing well.

Nice analysis. Thanks!

Caught me sleeping eh. My bad someone would claim him then if dropped.

Really appreciate this article as I was looking for more info on Varland and Gore. Interesting that their fastballs are not that great and that they generally only have one good secondary considering how well both of them have been doing. I really doubted Gore would have an impact especially this early but maybe he can make it. We sure need pen arms so would be nice to see him only get better. Given Varland's K rate I would have thought the fastball had more movement. We'll see how it plays moving up a level. Anyway I like all three of these guys and hope they find that one thing that makes them elite.

I really like your take on Vallimont. You are far more optimistic than even I am and I have been pretty high on him since he came to the Twins mainly because of the K rate. I kind of thought or was hoping he would have more control after the COVID layoff but he seems to be pretty much the same guy. I agree with some of your analysis mainly because I have seen it. He throws the ball no where near the strike zone and walks two or three guys and then buckles down and K's the next two or three guys. I want to see him as more than a reliever but like you said he needs to find something first. Hopefully part of that something is a semblance of control.

Yep tend to agree with you on Rooker. Until he proves he can sit on Breaking balls and hit them he will never make it. I just think they will keep him over other options as they have before. I had Thielbar in my trade scenario. I mentioned it might not happen as he is one of the few effective lefties they have but he is 34 so not sure how much more they can get out of him at this point. Personally I think they keep all three catchers. Rortvedt is a pretty elite defensive catcher another team would love to grab him in Rule V. The Twins will wait fir his offense to pick up. They love Garver for some reason and even if not behind the dish appear see him as a 1st base DH option as well and a team always needs catcher depth anyway so there is that.

I think it has to do with future 40 man decisions and the deadline right now. I think we will see him after the deadline for sure.

Would hate trading Buxton or Berrios to the Yankees.

Gross is starting to make me a believer. I wonder if they can run him up to AA and just see if he can compete there. He has looked really good at this level for a while now. Was happy to see Jullien have good game as had a couple klunkers. Good to see he still has that HR power.

This is a brutal exercise. Right now there are too many young pitchers being protected or needing to be protected that is messing things up until they start producing at the MLB level. Duran, Balazovich, Winder, Enlow, Sands and Vallimont are all pretty much dead weight right now but are our best future hope at good young starting pitching. The guys I have in red are guys that could be taken off if the Twins find something better via trade or free agency, I penciled in Smeltzer mainly because he is a lefty and left Barnes and Thorpe off of my list. I have concerns with Thorpe's velocity and his tendency to give up the HR ball. I don't feel like Barnes K's enough guys to be a legit MLB starter. I kept Ferrell on mainly because he was doing well when healthy and we don't seem to have much for pen arms as it is. Rijo is still a wild card for me. He has that great curve but the fastball has been suspect. Hopefully if he can show more this season I can make a better guess whether to add him or not. Colina is on my penciled in list mainly because the last time I saw him he was getting blown up at the MLB level. Haven't had a chance to see him yet this year so it is hard to make a decision but I left him penciled in. I have Cano on my list because I think the Twins are going to add him if he performs well at AAA. I think he will but if not they don't need to add him but I penciled him in because I think they will. I left Thielbar off because I think he will get traded. He has three years of control left but but he is also 34 so likely only a couple of good years left. I could be wrong the Twins might keep him as he is one of the few lefty relievers they have. I didn't keep Burroughs or Jax. I had Jax on initially but I needed space for FA starters and went with Smeltzer instead mainly because he is left handed. Hitters I did not add Cave or Refsnyder to my list and penciled in Garlick but even he could end up being replaced depending on what the Twins decide to do there. I also did not put Gabriel Maciel on because he is more of a 4th outfielder and has no power. I added Jermaine Palacios but only penciled him in. He hasn't been hitting quite as well at AA recently and the Twins might do something in FA for Shortstop and they still have Lewis. I think they will add Jermaine though as insurance it will certainly be between him a Javier. I just personally don't see Javier as even lose to ready for MLB ball it seems like he might have confidence issues and he is very up and down and his underlying numbers are not that great either. So giving the nod to Palacios. I have left a lot of talent off of my list and saved only three spots but likely need 5 so some of the penciled in will likely have to go. The Twins will need one or two starting pitcher FA. A shortstop FA and couple of veteran bullpen arms as well. Guys are going to get exposed to rule V no question. That is my list will be interesting to see how the FO handles things. Pitchers Maeda Keep Berrios Keep Dobank Keep Ober Keep jhoan Duran Keep Balazovich Keep Taylor Rodgers Keep Jorge Alcala Keep Tyler Duffey Keep Josh Winder Keep Blayne Enlow Keep Cole Sands Keep Chris Vallimont Keep Devin Smeltzer Luke Farrell Luis Rijo Jovani Moran Keep Edwar Colina Yennier Cano Hitters Mitch Garver Keep Ryan Jeffers Keep Ben Rortvedt Keep Alex Kirilloff Keep Jorge Polanco Keep Luis Arraez Keep Trevor Larnach Keep Byron Buxton Keep Donaldson Keep Max Kepler Keep Miguel Sano Keep Brent Rooker Keep Kyle Garlick Gileberto Celestino Keep Nick Gordon Keep Rotce Lewis Keep Jose Miranda Keep Jermaine Palacios

Can't say anything for sure as anything can happen between now and next spring but it sure seems like the FO is going to double down on this core. They have to feel they are just pitching away from turning things around but will those young pitchers really be ready by next year? It seems unlikely. I agree that they are unlikely to get anything back in the help soon category for the rentals they are peddling. Cruz and maybe Pineda are the only ones that can fetch more than a major lottery ticket IMO. So you are right there will not be much improvement for this team after the deadline, with that approach they are banking on what they already have in the system IMO. We'll have to wait and see how it all plays out but I sure hope they make the right decisions.

Yeah but I think at the deadline depending on the situation having good prospects at the very end can pay off. There is always more than one team who wants player X but, once player X is traded they need to move to player Y and if player Y is the only good remaining asset on the market you are going to be willing to pay more in prospects otherwise you risk being left out completely. Can be risky to play it that way though because if no one "needs" your guy then maybe no deal gets done and as you said then you lose the value of said player helping a team 2 years instead of just one. The deadline is pretty much a game of chicken until the very end. Once things start moving though it all seems to happen pretty fast.

I don't love the Braves system right now so there is that but, I am sure the Twins could find something there if they wanted to move rentals. I like the Kepler idea but they don't have to move him at the deadline and they have him on a good contract and I don't see the Braves paying for a pretty much average right fielder hitting wise although he would be an option for them in Center field I have to imagine so there would be value that way. I am still not sure how I feel about Max these days. I don't love that he pulls everything to the right side but it looks like he has tried to go the other way more this year than I have seen in the past. He still has a tough time at the plate against lefties so could be a bit of a flawed player. He just plays such good defense though that he is harder to replace than some players.

I think that is the smart play and I think most of the board wants both players extended, the concern was can the Twins get it done and if not shouldn't they be trying to maximize the trade value those players posses. Yes if they trade those players right now they should be asking for the moon. If someone wants to desperately make a move and overpay then sure go for it. Otherwise keeping them gives them the best option to do well next year unless of course Buxton is hurt all of next year too. However, If they lose both players for draft comp or a deadline move next year I think they will have missed on a valuable opportunity to supplement their 2nd wave that is just coming up.

Contraras and Rooker both with HR's again last night. Seems like one or the other hits one every night now. Starting to think Moran is the real deal. We could really use some pen guys stepping up and filling in MLB roles. The walks and hits finally caught up to Vallimont and runs came in. Not sure what he needs to do exactly but he I believe the experts had him pegged as a reliever and he is starting to look more like a reliever to me. I don't know what got into Tyler Watson but what a game for him. I don't think I have seen him strike out 9 guys before. Could he have found an out pitch? ERA looks good and WHIP is starting to come down. Maybe there is something there? Holland finally has a good game with Multiple hits. Hoping he gets a but more consistent. Still the affiliates won three out of four so a good night to watch them play.

I was thinking the same thing about Maggi. Giving him some games at MLB the last month would be a really cool thing to do. He is an old Twin, Pirana, Punto type player who never quite made it but is having a great year. I do hope they give him some at bats with the big club. I like your Contraras pick as well. It wasn't that long ago his numbers were not that much different than Rookers and Contraras is a gold glove player at his position. Was wondering if he was going to pass Rooker and then recently Roooker stepped on the gas and had like 5 HR's in three or four games and his OPS is 100 point higher now. Seth is gonna tell me I am crazy but I could see someone grabbing Mark in the Rule V. Especially if he keeps hitting HR's If the Twins get rid of Simmons I really think they should add Palacios to the 40 man. They likely will need to protect him anyway and it would let them see how close or far away he is. If he looks ready tat short that could change their plans for the offseason. Whitefield I never thought he would hit enough but he has hung in there this year. Honestly I like his bat better than Celestino right now. His speed is probably better as well. Again I hope this FO can self evaluate their players because he could be another good rule V pickup if not added. Same with one of my favorite players De La Trinidad. He has been a real tough out this year and while he is small he has hit for power this year. I think he was injured recently and he slowed down since the injury but he looks like a nice 4th outfielder type. I really like how he plays the game, He was the other player that came over in the Escobar trade. It is a good list. I think the Twins do need to decide who to add and again I think they are going to lose some guys to rule V. Hoping that they keep the right guys this time though.