Dman

At this point in time I like Chalmers better. He looks like he might be able to control his pitches and striking out the side the other day means he has swing and miss stuff as well as good velocity. I think if our pen was a little weaker Chalmers would be a candidate for a pen spot this year. Gill is younger and still has potential to start. He got his WHIP down to 1.19 last year in A ball not great but doable for a reliever. It's a tough choice between the two right now, but as I stated earlier right now today I like Chalmers better. If Gill manages better control and a more advanced approach he could be much better than Chalmers who I only see as a reliever. The Twins getting Cave who looks MLB ready for Gill also complicates this analysis for me as Cave has already been a timely asset as he helped last years team to 101 wins when most of the starting outfield was injured. Not having him might have impacted that effort.

Thanks for this article I remember being very worried that we might not have a good draft after we sold our 2nd round pick and lost our third for signing Lance Lynn. We weren't picking high in the draft and it didn't appear we would have much money to move around in the draft. After the draft I did not feel like they had a "good" draft. I was just hoping Larnach would turn out OK so that the draft wouldn't be a complete loss. I guess I was wrong about a lot of these guys. As I've said many times I bought into the pundits view of Jeffers and didn't like the pick at the time. He made me eat crow from Elizabethton to Pensicola. Seeing where he is right now I think that was an outstanding pick. Sands number from college didn't give me much hope that he would be anything better than reliever and probably take a long time to get there. Again I couldn't have been more wrong as he has really been dominant to this point in his professional career. I didn't even know who Windor was and given he came from a small school didn't give him much of a chance to be successful. I liked his frame and could see potential there but he didn't throw throw real hard and he was in need of third pitch if I remember correctly. Not bad for 7th round pick but certainly no guarantee to work out either. I really didn't care for the Willie Joe Garry pick either. He didn't have a good hit tool and it I thought most of his other tools were average. He started the year out pretty hot and it looks like he has 5 tool potential although the bat could hold him back. Still a good grab at 9 where the Twins always seem to find a little something. I actually liked the Reggie Grace pick at 10 better. He has had control issue's but hoping he come around this year. Anything after 10 is crap shoot but I have to say I definitely didn't see Zach Neff moving as fast as he did. It is going to be a fun class to watch and hopefully the Twins can find a way to replicate that success as they again are without there 2nd and 3rd round picks this year.

Personally I think Celestino is the answer to your question. Hard to say if his bat will play at the MLB level at this time but his defense is already MLB ready. Buxtons defense has been more valuable than his bat anyway and I don't think Celestino will be a complete black hole at the plate certainly can't be too much worse than Buck. As noted by others if you don't like Celestino there then Kep moves over and you can arrange things anyway you like. I don't see the need to take on the Almora risk. We are close to having a glut of outfielders on the 40 man as it is granted not center fielders but in due time Celestino and if needed Royce Lewis can be used in CF if needed.

I agree. I know the OP is talking mostly about offense in this article but Rortvedts defense is very, very good and he was holding his own with the bat in AA before some minor injuries seemed to impact him. Also don't forget he needs to be added to the 40 man at the end of this year as well so if he is doing well and there is a catcher to be added I think it will be him. Hopefully Jeffers continues his climb because if we need to add Rortvedt at the end of the year and want to add Jeffers at some point as well then Avila will have to move on and they will have to make a decision on the turtle as well. Granted those decisions don't have to happen until next year but looking ahead it is something to think about.

Poppen is a very intriguing player. With the movement he has he seems like a good candidate to start but the one issue he has and it really is a big one when it comes to making it to MLB is his WHIP. It is just too high to be successful at the next level. He has to find a way to throw strikes when he needs them. I am still a believer and I think as noted given his age and control issues to this point the bullpen does sound like a good spot for him. I wouldn't be surprised if they gave him one last year to start and see what he can do at AAA but the stuff he has is good enough if he can harness it.

I am going with Hardy. He is a lefty and had some success in the past. I think the Twins Coaching staff can get a little more out of him than Detroit did. I am rooting for Thielbar as well but I feel like Hardy might be just a little better. Will have to wait and see how things shake out but those two would be my favorite to make it. I really like Tellis but he is an injury or two away from making it up IMO. The Turtle is too flexible and they likely wouldn't need him unless two catcher went down. I kind of thought he would have gone to a team where he would have a better chance to be called up but I guess he likes MN.

I can agree with many of the things you said but the development piece just doesn't ring true for me. The Twins of the last ten years had a lot of trouble and I mean a lot of trouble developing pitchers. From FA's to trades to draft pick failures to guys like Liriano and Worely who suddenly got back on track with the Pirates. The Twins never did much to develop a pitching staff. I guess there was some success with Berrios and Gibson but that's about it over the last ten years or so. They never traded for a pitcher as good as Odo and never had a good FA pitcher signing unless you want to include the one good year of Phil Hughes. They didn't really do much better developing bullpen arms. If you look back pitcher development looks like a black hole IMO. (Edit-Oops forgot about Santana as a FA signing that was a good one.) With the new front office suddenly bullpen pitchers that were doing OK are starting to look elite I am looking at Rogers, Duffy, May, Littel, Stashak, even Harper who they got rid of after they helped him ride his best pitch to success. Nobodys like Dobnak, Smeltzer and Poppen are suddenly viable arms and in the minors I have never been more excited bout the pitching prospects we have down on the farm. It seems like they are getting every ounce out of every arm adding velocity and focusing on secondaries that work best for that specific pitcher. I never saw anything like it ever with the old staff, ever. As far as the coaches they have hired to help develop the players I have never seen the Twins coaching staff raided as badly as this year. In fact when has anyone raided our coaching staff in the past? I mean even the Yankees went out and grabbed our catching coordinator. The Yankees. Think about that for a minute. This FO has only been going at this for three years and while I agree they were given a lot of talent to get started they maximized that talent into the second best season in Twins history. I fail to see how that makes them bad at player development or even the same as the old group. The old group never approached a season like last year. Yeah they didn't pick some of the players but IMO these players wouldn't be as successful without the coaching and tools this FO gave them. I could go on and on about the changes but my main point has been made. This FO is light years ahead when it comes to development. It really isn't even close if you are willing to look at it objectively.

Wave two is on its way to the big club. AA is stacked with high end talent and there are some AAA pitchers waiting in the wings for opportunities. I am hoping that within that AA pitching group of Balazovic, Duran, Sands, Colina and maybe Ober that they have the stuff to be impact pitchers. We still need starters and having cheap controllable ones would be even more beneficial for this club as they try to optimize their financial commitments. Very excited about this years top 20. After some wave two graduations though it looks like the farm might take a dip in the rankings. Hopefully they manage to draft and develop well.

Numbers, numbers, numbers. I guess those cold hard numbers rule the world. I know I follow them when evaluating players. I guess the thing I always wonder about is can the numbers really see a breakout happening. It seems like human evaluation would be better able to see a player breaking out before the numbers do. At any rate this was an eye opening article as the numbers had prospects in a very different order than the experts. With the added WAR calc we get to see that ZIPS (just following the cold hard numbers) does not get as deluded or caught up in potential as does human evaluation. I am, however going to spit in ZIPS eye and say that they still can't predict at draft time who will be a successful MLB baseball player. There I said it numbers have their limits.

There is a lot up in the air about how things will shake out for Kirilloff and Larnach and the 26 man. The good news is no tough decisions need to be made until the end of this year when Kirilloff needs to be added to the 40 man. Even then he wouldn't "need" to replace Rosario on the 40 man he could replace Cave or Wade. If Kirilloff and Larnach have outstanding years this year there are two wild card players that would determine whether there is room on the 26 man roster or not. Those players are Rosario and Cruz. If Rosario has a good year this year improves his eye at the plate just a little then I think the Twins will keep him another year. If they do keep him another year then that is one less spot open. Same for Cruz if he has yet another season even close to what he did last year then I think the Twins resign him so again no room. All that means is Alex might have to sit one more year at AAA and or wait for injury to get his chance. Not a huge deal IMO. The Twins won't keep Rosario beyond his last year of arbitration even if he is a better option because they will want the financial saving they can get by starting Kirilloff or Larnach in that spot. If Cruz and Rosario tank this year then then there is plenty of room and opportunity for Kirilloff and Larnach to make the 26 man. The one other sticky wicket is Rooker. Would he be a Platoon bat for Left Field and first base? Even after Cruz and Rosario eventually move on there doesn't appear to be room for all three. Even if you move Sano to DH there is only 1st base and left field open. Maybe they rotate guys around to give them enough at bats or else they will need to find a trading partner to better allocate resources. Until Kirilloff and Larnach start dominating AAA I don't see a problem though as there is room on 40 man for them without impacting the 26 man. We will have to wait and see how this year plays out before needing to worry about future decisions.

I go back and forth on this issue. In the end I still think I go with the vets. Wins are as important early in the season as they are late in the season. With vets you have a slightly better idea of how they will perform. The small sample sizes for the young guys makes me a little nervous. I say give them some time at AAA to make sure they have their stuff together and once proven then the vets can be on a shorter leash. Depth is never a bad thing just ask Cleveland. Still I would start with the season with the guys who have been there and done that before. Use the young guys if injuries happen or they are just killing it in AAA that you just have to bring them up.

I am with you on Holland and Julien. I mean Holland was slated as a late 1st round draft pick. Good speed, but his hit tool went missing. I know having a suspect hit tool is a big risk but getting a guy like that in the 5th round I think is worth the risk. If the hit tool picks up (not likely) he could be a 5 tool player. I don't expect him to get off to a great start in cold Cedar Rapids but if he heats up with the weather that could end up being a really good pick. Julien is also an intriguing bat and he fits right in with the Twins philosophy of grabbing guys that hit the ball hard. He was a name that was in the top 200 and we got him in the 18th round. Again that is an incredible value for the risk. Granted the Twins had to find another $400,000 to sign him but likely money well spent even he does project as a DH. I will be watching both of those guys closely to see if we got a little lucky for a change.

I didn't like the Cavaceo signing mainly because his hit tool was very suspect. I have seen too many 5 tool players with suspect hit tools fail. Sometimes they make it as defensive first players but they never make much of a dent offensively. While Wallner has lots of power his hit tool is slightly below average as well and I would have preferred they take a pitcher in that spot but they didn't. Why take guys with less than desirable hit tools that early? I really like it when they pick guys like Larnach and Kirilloff. Guys that have good hit tools from the get go. There is much less risk involved in them making it all the way to MLB. So why the change in philosophy? After seeing the FO's preference for guys who hit the ball hard I started looking more at Exit velocity and hard hit rate. Turns out hard hit rate gives the batter a distinct advantage over the pitcher and the defense. The stats below show why hard hit appears to be so important to our new FO. Batting average improves dramatically as does slugging when you hit the ball hard. Hard-hit balls .524 BA, 1.047 SLG, .653 wOBA Weakly hit balls .219 BA, .259 SLG, .206 wOBA Short story long I guess that is why the FO is so enamored with guys with powerful swings. Even if they miss the ball more, when they do hit it, very good things happen. How much average can you be willing to sacrifice for slugging? I don't know the answer but I would guess instead of guy who hit around 300 you could have a guy hit around 250 with a good hard hit rate and you might still come out ahead. These guys still need to have a decent eye at the plate or they will never make it but some of that can be taught. There is still launch angle and the ability to barrel balls to consider as well but a powerful swing is the catalyst required to make it all work. I am still struggling with the new philosophy and only time will tell if the guys they are picking can hit and lay off pitches enough to succeed, but I think that is the direction they are going whether I like it or not. Hard hit rate is not the be all end all either as guys with good average and OBP can be almost as valuable but those players are rare as well and getting someone who can put it all together ala Mookie Betts or Mike trout is even more rare. Here's to hoping the guys they picked work out.

It is a little early to have any idea who it makes the most sense to keep as this years performance will factor heavily into who is retained or not, but for the sake of guessing here goes. If there is one player I would not bet against it is Cruz. If he stays healthy he will be productive. The key is to keep him healthy. Short of a major decline they will resign Cruz next year. May is a tough call. If he has another really good year I am guessing they would try to keep him if the price is not outrageous. If he falters then I think they cut ties as there are cheaper options on the way and we will likely need the 40 man room. I would love to have Odo back but at the 20M or more salary for 4 or 5 years not sure the Twins will take that bet. I think they let him walk and Hopefully Duran or a cheaper option is available for that spot. I think no matter how good or bad Bailey is he is gone after this year. His age and the fact we have younger options available to fill that spot makes his return very unlikely. Same thing for Hill if he pitches well I think some other team will be willing to pay more than we will if he can't pitch then likely time to cut ties anyway. I don't see them bringing Marwin back. His flexibility is nice to have but I think our roster is deep enough with several guys that can play multiple positions that I don't think he will be brought back. There is no way the Twins will resign all those guys. I think they are most comfortable hanging around the 130M mark but stretched themselves this year with Odo and the Donaldson signing. Then they ran into the Maeda deal and looked to recoup some money to help cover the signing. They will likely need\want to drop down some next year. I count up to 15 guys that might need to be added to the 40 man next year granted not all of them will play themselves into a 40 man spot but there is only room for about 6 guys tops that I can see right now so there will be some tough decisions to make next year. There are also tow players that the Twins could be tempted to add early in Larnach and Jeffers. So that will make bringing some of these players back even more difficult. Nice to have wave 2 hitting just as we are starting to contend but tough decision lie ahead.

That is a good point. If a team has a losing record I fail to see how they deserve to be in playoffs I think at minimum a winning record should be required. If only 6 teams with a winning record then whoever would have faced team 7 gets a bye. You just can't have a losing record an be in the playoffs. Totally defeats the purpose.

So your telling me no one gets excited when their team gets in as a wild card? and that that 2014 Royals A's match up was so boring you fell a sleep and having the Royals make a run for the title was so very nauseating that you wish it had never happened? OK how about Washington last year? That was terrible to watch too I suppose? I think the reason they are willing to expand the playoffs is that they have already proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that the wild card has brought more drama and excitement that they are willing to double down on the idea. It should keep fan excitement higher for more teams as they won't be eliminated from playoff contention as early. I don't care how people spin it the playoffs are exciting pretty much no matter who plays and if the under dog wins a game or a series it is even more exciting (i.e. see NFL and NCAA Basketball for reference). If you want to go with the dilution theory then I ask if the other teams are so good how could they lose to a supposedly inferior team. Personally I think this is more fear of change talk than anything else. Has the current wild card system hurt the playoffs or baseball? if not I fail to see how expanding a little more would do more damage.

Was excited when the Twins got him in the trade and am still excited about Duran. The K9 has always been there. His FIP and XFIP are better than his ERA so no regression worries. He is who he is which is a very good pitcher. Like others have said if can be just a bit more consistent on the delivery this guy looks like a stud. He looks like someone that can make me forget about Escobar.

I remember not that long ago saying this was a stupid pick by the Twins. Ahh feels so good to eat crow, He has done really well since the moment they brought him in. The bat is for real and with the improved defense he looks legit. I am still a big Rortvedt fan. He was close to breaking through last year with the bat and then got injured and seemed to tapper off. Rortvedt's defense seems outstanding to me. If the bat picks up he'll be right there with Jeffers. Not much for catchers behind them so maybe they pick someone up in the draft? Probably not with the lost picks and this being a pitchers draft. Still nice to have two young and very talented Catchers in the org though.

I would give the Dodgers an A+. They had to give up something and that was Verdugo. Although they gave up Downs and Wong they got back Graterol and Raley two slightly lessor prospects but still within Range of the two they gave up. They lost Maeda but gained Price again a fairly even trade off. So essentially for Verdugo and of course a bunch of money they get Mookie Betts. Absolute genius in my mind. Didn't lose much prospect value and gained a difference maker for the post season. Really, really well done. Boston B+. If they keep Betts this year and things go right for them on the pitching front maybe Boston has a shot hard to say but after that they have nothing left in the prospect pool at all and would still need to reset the cap to get rid of penalties. It is an absolute nightmare scenario. Instead for one year of Mookie they get a very good replacement in Verdugo. Granted not Mookie but in the end he might not be that far off and they get at least three years at reasonable rates as well which they desperately need. Same with Downs who if he keeps doing what he is doing can hopefully fill out second base in the future for them. The Catcher is a need they have and has an added bonus of being a utility player as well. All for one year of Mookie Betts with the added bonus of resetting the cap this year so they could go over next year if they need to add a couple more players to strengthen the roster again. It was a very solid and timely move for the Sox. They did very well IMO certainly much better than keeping Betts. The Twins B-. The Twins put themselves in a position that they needed another starter to start the season and while they got Maeda I am not confident he will pitch as well as we hope and don't believe he is the answer to our post season woes. Although they could afford to give up Graterol and Raley to achieve that I still think the Dodgers win this deal. Throw in the Second round comp pick and I know the Dodgers won this deal. Yeah the Twins got 10M but they lost the ability to move around in the draft and they lost two good prospects with 6 years of control for an older pitcher who may or may not age well. It is a win now move and I get that and I am not completely unhappy about it but because we gained only money and no prospects back that brings the grade down a notch for me. If the FO can explain why they needed the money and use it in a way that helps the team at the deadline then I would revise this grade to B+ but until I know it is B- for me. I was very pleased that our FO did not cave to Bostons demands and I am glad they got involved in a deal to make this team better. This FO is breaking all the old ways of doing business and I hope it leads to lots of future success.

If I remember correctly the Twins were always enamored with his defense and speed. The bat speed was there for power as well the one missing thing and it was a big one was the hit tool. In general I don't like it when teams take guys with poor hit tools early in the draft because far too often guys that don't have a good one never really develop one. You can have the other 4 tools but without the hit tool it all goes down the drain. Cavvy is very young and certainly has plenty of time to develop so no need to panic just yet but I still think he is a bit of a gamble. Most high schoolers that start out in pro ball don't do well their draft season. We should know more about how well things are going to go after this year if he doesn't get hurt.

Raley was going to have a tough time getting a shot with the Twins and he was kind of clogging the the 40 man as a redundant outfielder. We need to add Kirilloff to the 40 man at the end of this year so an outfielder needed to move Raley makes sense. If that is what needed to happen to make the trade go through I am fine with that. I don't know how Fredman does it but he always gets value. I think Raley is going to be a very good major league player in time he just needs some opportunity. I hate losing Brusdar just absolutely loved that kid but this makes sense for the Twins. I hope that pitching pipeline is ready to produce so we don't have to keep making deals like this but I really think they did the right thing here. I think the Dodgers win this trade long term but I also think we needed this move at this time.

Friedman really helped Bloom out big time. So Boston ended up not getting a pitcher at all in this deal? I knew no one would give them a top 100 pitcher for Meada and I knew LA wouldn't do it either. I fail to see how Boston got much more in the new deal and certainly nothing close to the two top 10 prospects they were pushing Minnesota for. Position players are safer bets so I guess there's that and Friedman the smarter GM picks up Graterol and gets 6 years of a high octane arm. He also picks up the Twins 2nd round comp pick and they have been good at finding guys in the early rounds. That guy never loses a deal. The Dodgers are going to be good for a very long time. Happy for the Twins as well though. Picking up another solid starter to start the year is huge given the issues we have. Maeda is on a performance driven contract so if does poorly at least they won't have to pay for it. Also he could be moved to the pen and help that way. The Twins like to have a flexible roster and this guy fits right into that. Hate to see Graterol go. Like Friedman I believe he is going to be just fine in the Major leagues and if he ever does develop that change up I still think he can start but maybe that is my blind optimism talking. Also hate to lose that second round pick as it makes the draft less exciting but we now have a team where you sacrifice the future for the present happy with move even though we lost a second and third round pick this year Really, really happy with the FO. They really seem to know what they are doing.

I think we should get out of this deal. I like Maeda as go now move but I like Graterols potential as well. I wouldn't mind having the kid back. He seems like one of the few power bullpen arms we have so wouldn't be bad to keep him.

I was thinking somewhat the same thing. I guess first they need to find out if another team values Maeda more than the Twins then they still get the deal done just with another team, but if that doesn't work then related to what you said I was wondering if the Dodgers would take on Graterol and then Give Boston Josiah Gray. He and Brusdar are ranked about the same in the top 100 and if Boston is satisfied with his physical then all LA loses is one top 100 prospect for another. If Boston still wants more than that then I say have a good year and good luck when Mookie Leaves next year.

And we are officially out of the trade per MLB trade rumors. Glad we didn't budge. I guess Boston\Dodgers found a better offer for Maeda? Happy to have you back Brusdar. I hope you close out\shut the door on many games against the Sox in the future. Thank you FO for not caving!! I am fine with this result given the circumstances.