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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I have had my concerns as well but starters are always battling efficient outs versus Strikeouts. Strikeouts usually run up pitch counts and we all know most teams don't want their starter to throw more than 100 pitches and monitor them the third time through the order as well. You have to risk contact but if you can get a guy out on just one pitch that is better than striking him out using 5,6,7,8, or 9 pitches. We know he strike guys out as he had the highest K rate in the system at one point and maybe still does not sure. What we didn't know for sure is if he could be a more efficient pitcher than he has been. It is a balancing act to some degree but if he can get weak contact and have strike out stuff that is a perfect combination to have in a starting pitcher. I am fine if he sacrifices some K's and goes an extra 2 innings. Especially if it is a quality start. We'll see how he does the next time out but he has had one of the better seasons I have seen a 1st full year guy have. He has been fun to watch and I hope he continues to improve especially that changeup and he just might end up a starter yet.
  2. Dman
    I hope you are right as I wouldn't mind them investing in the top tier pitching market. I just can't remember them ever getting one before. I guess the same thing could have been said until they signed Donaldson so never say never it just doesn't seem likely to me. Personally like I said I think they sign two vets at two years or under and plan to run with the young guys next year, but we'll see.
  3. Dman
    I agree. I think if you are the Twins you shouldn't be planning your future around Royce Lewis. As many have stated unless he comes back and has a Miranda type year he won't impact anything until 2023 and that is the earliest it could very well take until 2024 or 2025 for it to all come together hard to say with his bat. If they can strike a deal with one of the big FA SS then IMO they should do it. Waiting for Royce is not a good plan. I know the hypothetical is trading Lewis for a good return but I just don't see a team doing that. As Brock stated earlier the only reason Royce is as high as he is on prospects lists is that is pretty much where he was pre-Covid and pre-injury. If he comes back and still can't hit or the knee remains an issue he could literally drop out of the top 100. That is not a guy another FO trades a good pitcher for unless they are willing to take a huge risk. I just can't see that happening. I also don't see the Twins making a huge pitcher signing. They will stick to the Pineda type guys or guys willing to go 2 years. Maybe I will be wrong as they feel the pressure this year brought them but that has been their MO so far. If they invest that money I think it will be in position players and maybe proven relievers.
  4. Dman
    Thanks for this article. I didn't like the pick when the Twins made it but I guess it goes to show they can see guys with potential to have a plus pitch and work from there. I really thought he would wear down as the year went on and his numbers would be less impressive but he has been pretty consistent all year from what I saw. I agree the pen seems the most likely place he would play but good pen arms are apparently harder to find than I realize so hopefully he continues to develop ways to make his pitches more effective.
  5. Dman
    I wonder if that will be the last we see of Lewis Thorpe? He doesn't look like 40 man material to me. I remember when they first got him and he was throwing 93-95 as a teenager I believe. He was dominant striking guys out and he looked like a can't miss pitcher and lefty to boot. He was never quite the same after the TJ surgery IMO. He still had some good moments don't get me wrong but he just didn't seem to have quite the same stuff. He worked hard to come back and maybe he can be a pen arm for some team in the future but I just don't see it happening with the Twins. I certainly could be wrong but even after all that time off he didn't look that good today. Honestly I think Smeltzer has better stuff and I don't love his stuff either because he is so homer prone. Maybe Thorpe isn't hurt that bad and he gets another game or two but with the low velocity and lack of control it looks like the end to me.
  6. Dman
    They are playing pretty well right now but they have a lot of tough teams to play yet. I can't believe I am saying this but I think they do end up finishing second in the division when it is all said and done with just under a 500 record. We'll see there is a lot that can happen yet but if the young pitching holds and the pen is actually somewhat decent this kind of looks like who they are. What a strange year.
  7. Dman
    Yeah I think that floor is going to be important to getting it done. Players association is going to want more competition for players and more places they can go helps with that. If a team can't manage the 100M floor then they probably need to be moved to a place where that would be more viable. Trying to keep teams at 180M will require all teams to build with prospects and not get to rely on always signing the best players to cover for those deficiencies. Still a ways to go yet though as they have to work out team control for the young players. Almost 7 years is too long and I would argue 6 years is probably too long to have control unless those arb salaries can be lifted up somehow. Getting an extra year for holding a player back a few months needs to go as well. It just isn't a good look for the sport. Hopefully they can get this done and avoid a work stoppage or it might hurt both sides.
  8. Dman
    Love your write up on Palacios and I too started to notice him as more legit when he had that 900 OPS earlier in the year. He seems like the only legit player they have at the position so I guess I don't understand why they can't at least move him up to AAA if they want to play Martin at short. I know a close to mid 800 OPS at AA doesn't translate particularly well to MLB because he is likely going to lose 150 to 200 points on that when moving up to the MLB level but that still isn't any worse than Simmons right now and it would be nice to have a utility player that could at least reasonably back up short. So if they plan to add him it would also be nice to get him some reps at the MLB level to get the jitters out and see how he does or maybe they are just hoping he regresses so that they don't have to add him hard to say. At any rate I am with you on the Palacios bandwagon. I too noticed that Quad Cities team when they came to town and demolished us. There is a lot of talent on that team. Not sure many of those guys look like super stars but they have the numbers to find several solid MLB players from that team. KC is going to get younger and better real soon.
  9. Dman
    I wondered the same exact thing but I think they likely fill that spot short term again. The tough thing about Lewis is he is at least two years away and given what we currently know we can't bank on him being able to play short well and we have no idea what kind of hitter he will be since he has been so up and down. It makes me nervous when guys I thought I could bank on like Kirilloff and Larnach are struggling at the MLB level. If guys with good to great hit tools have trouble adjusting what is it going to be like for Lewis? He is a wild card and if I were the Twins I would play the future as if he wasn't even there, wasn't even a part of it. So yes if they feel they have the money to sign one of those proven guys long term they should do it. If they can't get that done then plan B find a veteran to plug in there for a year or two and then plan C you can see where Lewis fits on this team if he ever even proves he belongs at the MLB level. There are no sure things.
  10. Dman
    Yeah but Lewis is a better defender than Kirilloff, Larnach and Kepler and Kirilloff seems like a stretch in the outfield right now as the Twins have him playing 1st base and he appears to be a plus defender there. Still even if your assumptions hold true with Lewis the better defender and if his bat is equal or even slightly under the other three why not trade one of those guys and keep Lewis? He would be cheaper and give you better defense as well as a threat to turn walks and singles into doubles by stealing 2nd base. On top of all that he is great Buxton insurance. Unless you don't believe in his bat I think you are selling him short.
  11. Dman
    Not surprising and they need to know what he can and cannot do and what he is or is not. Right now I am so low on him I have him off the 40 man next year. Hopefully he proves me wrong but the velocity hasn't been there and K's haven't been there and the HR ball has been a problem for him so I guess we will see if he puts it all together or not. Best to find out for sure before giving up on him.
  12. Dman
    Given Lewis's flexibility I don't see why they would need to trade him. He literally can play all outfield positions and infield position's so he is not limited to short and some analysts feel his best position might be center field. If his bat does come around he would be cheap to use and if he looked like he was better at any of the infield or outfield positions then why not keep him? He would have elite speed so good to great defense and a threat to steal bases so not a guy you want to get rid of IMO. If the bat doesn't work out then no one will want him including the Twins. He needs to develop his hit tool and then he can play wherever they need him to play.
  13. Dman
    I thought I heard some chatter about shutting SWR down for the year kind of like Winder. His stats eroded as the year went on so maybe some dead arm issue's? He pitched a decent number of innings so maybe he will just work on stuff until the end of the season. Of course depending on the situation they could bring him back yet this year as well. Hard to say. I just wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see him until next year is all. I was wondering the same thing about the divisions and teams in general. Our AA hitters have feasted on Springfield pitching so if the talent level is lacking there and it inflates some of our hitters stats it does make you wonder just how good some of our guys really are. It should get evened out league wide over the coarse of a season but like you said other leagues could be better or worse based on how those farm systems are doing at certain levels. Likely no easy answer but it does make me wonder sometimes.
  14. Dman
    Jax just keeps doing his thing and he still looks good out there. He didn't get many K's last night but he made it 6 innings which is something that seems hard for our pitchers to do. The pen has been good and holding their own. Amazing what can happen when we pitch better. Just happy to see Jax continue to perform well would be nice to have some of these young guys succeed.
  15. Dman
    I was happy to see the Twins take several left handed pitchers early in the draft. They said they weren't targeting them but they never have had much left handing pitching in the system. Hopefully they can continue to balance that out a bit more not looking for 50/50 but 30/70 would be nice. They still don't have much for Short Stop depth. I know there is hope for Lewis but he has never been plus there and might have to work hard just to be average at the position. Martin supposedly ended up with arm problems playing there and doesn't have much experience playing there either. Palacios seems to be the only player that can stay at short and maybe be average there and that is a big maybe. He isn't even currently on the 40 man so hard to say how the Twins feel about him. While you have zero for catcher, Isola looks like he could be something and Camargo and the 5'8" Morales could move up as well. Plus they added two catchers in the draft and have three fairly young and solid catchers at MLB level so not too worried about that position just yet. They have a ton of guys for 2nd and or third base so no need for more of those guys. Surprisingly outfield looks a little thin if you ask me but if you move Martin and or Lewis there then maybe not. Pitching appears to be the strength of the system let's hope that turns out to be the case and some of those guys become rotation fixtures at the MLB level for a good long time. With the exception of shortstop the system looks pretty good to me. There is some really good to great potential there.
  16. Dman
    The Twins do have plenty of power hitters in the system. I know I have said this a few times before but they have 9 guys that could hit 20 homers this year. The guys currently at 14 need to hit 1 HR per week with a multi HR game or two thrown in there to do so not impossible but not a given either. Pitching in general seemed to be down this month. The arms must be getting tired as even guys that had been doing pretty well got hit hard not every body but even Varland had a tougher time than normal. Not sure if the new and improved Severino is for real or not just yet but that is a good couple of weeks he has had moving up a level. We will see if teams figure out better ways to get him out in the future but right now he looks really, really good at the plate. As you stated lots of HR''s this week and the hitters look good about 1 month left in the season will be interesting to see how these guys finish.
  17. Dman
    He has good bat to ball skills and he has surprised me with how well he can make contact but his slugging is killing him. I see he hit a few balls out in AAA and now he is back so maybe they wanted to make sure he has or regained that oooomph to get those doubles, triples and HR's before having him come back. He needs to be able to play somewhere besides 2nd which is occupied by Polanco and Arraez to be valuable on the 40 man.
  18. Dman
    Yeah I am OK with Larnach going down. He will likely be back up in September and this gives him a chance to have more success and gain the confidence he had when he first came up. The K's are killing him and he needs to better understand what the pitchers are trying to do him. Most al of the guys moved back to AAA found their bats again and I bet he will too. If not there is always next year. Interesting to hear Gordon taking balls at short. There are lots of 40 man decisions to make so it sure would be nice to see what Nick can do at short. The last time I saw him which was several years ago now he had a couple of errors and didn't look that great throwing to first base. Hopefully he is in a better place now and has improved those skills. If he can even just play solid short or even just a little below average that could be huge for him and the team moving forward. He just has to not be bad to be valuable in that spot. Not sure how things will turn out but I hope they give him some games there and see how he does. I am guessing we won't see Miranda until rosters expand in September as they evaluate some of the relief pitchers they have picked up via trade and waiver wire. I would look for Ryan in September as well once the playoff teams won't be claiming players because they can't stay on the team for the playoffs at that point some of the guys they picked up on waivers might clear waivers. Have to believe that is why they haven't moved some guys up yet.
  19. Dman
    You might be right about Severino. It seems a stretch that he would be Baddoo like out of High A but I think after Baddoo we\they might be hesitant not to keep him. I think a lot of it will depend on how he finishes the year. If he finishes hot I don't think they will have a choice as you would be looking at a player likely to succeed at AA the following year so why not roster him and try him at the MLB level a little early. I could see a team doing that. Probably the Tigers again. If he falters down the stretch seems like a longshot. To your point we do have a lot of second base depth in the system so losing him wouldn't be the end of the world for a team with several years of Polanco and Arreaz coming up and Spencer Steer in the wings. They might have enough depth that they just leave him unprotected because there is no way he can help the team in 2022 and he would be taking up a 40 man spot. They might feel they can't afford to add him.
  20. Dman
    That is pretty close to what I had I also have Thielbar penciled in but if they find someone better in FA I could see him gone. They don't have much for lefties unless you think Moran takes Thielbar's spot. I too like Refsnyder but doubt he is a long term answer so if they wanted to go another direction I could be OK with that. Will have to see how he finishes the season if he slumps I doubt any other team would want him that badly but who knows. If he does well might be hard to let him go. Guys I still have concerns about would be Palacios, Contreras and Cabbage. They all could hit 20 HR's this season and all have OPS's over 800. A team at the bottom might be willing to take a chance especially given how Baddo, Wade and Miranda turned out this year. The same would go for Severino if he isn't added. The Twins seem to have good talent hiding in the upper levels will be interesting to see how much of it gets picked off this year.
  21. Dman
    No issue with that at all. Treating people with respect goes a lot further than the other way around. I am just passionate about it because I don't want people to needlessly die. I do have friends that have had family members die of Covid and none of them had gotten the vaccine. A stance like Simmons where he is creating doubt just irks me because he could change someone's mind and then that person might be someone that dies of this terrible disease. I just want people to be safe, to be healthy to live a good life. The best odds of accomplishing that are by getting the vaccine.
  22. Dman
    OK sure, but all I was truly trying to say and as you pointed out over exaggerated is that encouraging people in any way not to take the vaccine is against their own best interest. Odds are the people who died of the vaccine would have died had they got Covid. The odds of dying of the vaccine are extremely low. So low 99,9% of the time you won't die of the vaccine. Scaring them because there is a .0019% they could have a bad outcome versus a much higher percentage if they don't just doesn't make logical sense IMO. I don't think we should be providing cover for an anti-vax approach.
  23. Dman
    Even so and I didn't realize the numbers were even that high I'll take the odds of taking it versus not. Most of America and the world is starting to agree. So I guess using your logic most of the educated world would be ignorant and blatantly lying. Project warp speed was something best left unattempted because people could die just being given a vaccine to create a layer of protection.
  24. Dman
    I was impressed and surprised as well. I looked at the box score and had already written it off and a lose and figured Wichita would dwindle away it s lead. Looked later and had to do a double take as I was expecting them to be on the wrong end of the score. I too know it doesn't matter but it is always nice to see "your" team in 1st place. It is still something to fight for.
  25. Dman
    We have 4 guys in from the minors with 20 HR's if you count Rooker with Mirnada, Rooker, Cabbage and Steer, Palacios is closing in at 18 and Kerigan with 15 also Contreras, Bechtold and Boyd with 14. Lot's of power bats in this system. A chance for 9 guys to hit 20 if we get lucky.
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