Dman

While I like Kepler he has had a hard time against lefties. Personally I sense a platoon coming on. Rooker and Garlick have both been hitting well so far this spring and having a right handed bat for Keplers lefty kryptonite seems prudent to me. I think Arraez will get the leadoff spot. While he might not have the speed you would like out of that spot he has everything else. I could see them mixing in Max as well but I do think that against lefties they will want to work right handed bats into the lineup and Garlick and Rooker seem to fit the bill. Will they be in right or left hard to say but I know they had Rooker in right some last year when Kepler needed days off. I think Buxton operates best out of the nine spot but with Simmons maybe he ends up in the 7 or 8 spot hard to say. Having Buxton in the eight spot would give the Twins two speedsters back to back who if they get on base would have Arreaz to move them over or drive them in. In the end while I know Kepler is fine in the leadoff spot he has really good power and could be more valuable further down the order. Also if he does get platooned then the bat that replaces him will be better off further down the order as well. I think IMO Arreaz ends up in the leadoff spot.

Yeah I think your comp of Blankehorn makes more sense. Taken in the third round and someone with HR potential, pretty much double digit HR's since 2016. Still would be hard to beat some of Bryans best years for HR total but certainly a guy with the potential to be Dozier like IMO. There is a lot of competition for the Utility role on this team. Personally right now I would choose Blankehorn over Gorden but have to admit Gordon had a better OPS in AAA than Blankenhorn had at AA in 2019. The sample size isn't the same though as Nick hasn't played a full season in MiLB in three years I believe. So that is an issue as well. Nick needs a really good year to establish that he can first play a full year and second produce at an above rate to regain his prospect status and chances to be a MLB player.

Totally agree but Nick's body just hasn't developed much at all and with the build he has power won't come easy. I know he has been trying but it hasn't translated yet. I think when the Twins picked him they thought his body would develop more than it has to be honest.

I get where you are coming from but I don't see him ever having Doziers power. So while I could see him having a productive career, with Polanco and Arraez in front of him the odds are really against him. If he profiled better at short then maybe he might stand a chance, but second appears to be his home. I mean Gordon is Arraez without the great plate discipline and a little more speed. Both are dinkers and dunkers for the most part taking decent at bats but power is not a big part of their game. Don't get me wrong I am still a fan of Gordon and he might still have a utility role but the 40 man is going to get crowded soon and the Twins are going to have to decide between, Polanco, Arraez and Gordon and I think Gordon loses. They will need to add Lewis to the 40 man next year so something has got to give and I think it will be Nick Gordon. I like him but there appear to better players in front of him and behind him. Maybe he can show out this year and make me look bad, but as always he has a tough hill to climb.

I know, I know it is just spring training and it means nothing but my bleeding heart can’t let it go. So meaningless first impressions of todays game are as follows. I thought Thorpe did a nice job today he had a walk and hit a batter but he gave up no hits and no runs. After the slightly wild first inning it looks like he might live up to the early season hype. Rooker and Garlick with homers and Cave with a double all say high to Alex Kirilloff with extra base hits. Letting him know there will be competition for left field this spring. Larnach had a rough day but we are only two games in. Arraez was doing his normal routine, 1 hit, one walk, no K’s day, only to be outdone by possible Sire of Fort Meyers, Andrew Romine who went 2 for 3 today and out OPS’d Arreaz. Jeffers got a hit but also left three guys on base early on in the game. The surprising Blankenhorn showed a good eye at the plate with two walks. Maybe there is hope for a good utility guy there yet. I know the conditions this early in the season are not ideal but Minaya with three walks did not help himself today. He has time to turn it around but golly gee wiz he is in the basement right now. At least Andrew Vaquez is back and although he didn’t have his K stuff today he made quick work of it with a double play ball. Nice job Andrew good to see you back. He’s real wild one; Mr. Anderson might need the matrix to keep his ball in the strike zone. Wes Johnson has his work cut out for him. He has to throw strikes to get guys out so hopefully there is vast improvement soon. Jax did what Jax does pitch to contact and get guys out. Not sure if he can continue to make that work but he has done well to this point so here’s hoping he continues to roll. And finally who the heck is Luke Farrell? He got three K’s in his one inning of work and he put himself on the Sire for Fort Meyers map and I didn’t even know he was on our team. Pretty dominant inning of work so will be keeping my eye on him hoping this wasn’t peak Ferrell and it is all downhill from here. That is what my heart says. My brain says I am full of it and none of this matters at all.

Nicely stated. I think it depends on how the Twins feel about matchups. Rooker in the field is no picnic but he is a right handed power bat in the midst of mostly lefties. Garlick is Rooker light and seems less likely to make it and or even stay on 40 man IMO but if he has a big spring who knows. Broxton they have on a Minor league deal so unless they decide to swap Garlick for Broxton then he most likely starts in AAA waiting for an injury to be added to the 40 man or playing so well they add him later. His odds of starting with the team are very, very slim IMO. In the end I tend to agree with you though. Kirilloff seems the most likely to start there if he looks good this spring. Arraez will likely get a few days there every now and then and Cave can back everything else up as needed. I don't believe Cave has options left so they essentially need to keep him, trade him or DFA him. Would be a waste to DFA him IMO. So yeah your scenario seems the most likely to me as well. I think they wait for injuries to determine the next guy up for the outfield.

I'm not sure why Cave gets such a bad rap. in 2019 he OPS'd 805 and Eddie Rosario 803. Granted Rosario's slugging % was slightly better but he also made more outs. Also Caves sample size is small but he has never gotten consistent playing time so it is the best data we have. The thing is though he is not a "bad" offensive player and that is why the Twins have chosen him as the 4th outfielder the last three years. Cave does have the stiffest competition for his spot he has ever had in Kirilloff, Rooker, Arraez, Broxton and maybe even Garlick. So his odds of being the choice are not that great IMO. The Twins, however, might not feel the same way. They know what Cave and Arraez will give them but everyone else is a wild card at this point. I wouldn't be surprised if they kept him around just in case those guys are not up to the task and struggle or as injury insurance to start the year. I also wouldn't be surprised if they worked out a trade as well. I think we will just have to wait and see.

I think we all want to see Celestino but his bat is still questionable so not likely to start the season with the big club. If he isn't hitting that well at the higher minor league levels why would he hit at the major league level? Why burn an option just for his defense when we can use Broxton to do the same thing? Broxton is likely not the long term solution but if he can at least make contact with the ball he can be Buxton insurance for this year. If Celestino is lighting up the minors then I am sure the Twins would gladly bring him up if needed it just seems like odds are he will need another year or two before he is ready. Thus the Broxton talk. Also I doubt the Twins would have brought Broxton in if they thought Celestino was in any way a certainty to be ready this year.

Yeah Hamilton is the guy that sticks out to me as well. He seems to have decent control and a decent K9. He's been set back with injuries and has a chance to prove himself now that he is healthy. Gibaut is the other dark horse for me. He has elite spin rates but can't seem to keep things under control. If Wes can help him then he could end up elite as well IMO. I am hoping but not banking on Broxton finding a way to get consistent contact with the ball. If he can do that he would be a better option for the fourth outfield spot than Cave because he can play center field pretty well. Not Buxton level but likely better than anyone else on the team. The odds seem slim that he will find it but if he can then he could surprise as well.

I agree. Cave is the one they will shop. Granted he is best defender in left of the bunch but the bat is good not great and he will be arb eligible soon so why not plug in Rooker and Kirilloff on the cheap and see what they have. I do agree that given the current circumstances only Rooker or Kirilloff are going to make it to the 26 man. Someone has to start in AAA who that is I guess we'll have to wait and see. I think they keep Cave this year as injury insurance but they can't carry him next year as there are too many guys who will need 40 man spots. I think this is his last year with the Twins IMO.

I don't think fans hate Boras as much as how MLB is structured. With some teams having 60M to 70M payroll and others 200M which teams are likely to get the cream that has risen to the top? Yep the Yankee's, Dodgers, Nationals etc. So when teams like the Indians can't keep a homegrown player like Lindor because he alone would be a quarter to a third of their payroll as a fan that sucks. The guy you watched come up. watched perform in the clutch and become one of the best players in baseball is ripped from your team because your team can cannot compete financially. Do I think the players get screwed more often than not and Boras is at least somewhat of an equalizer sure, but while I am a fan of baseball players I am a greater fan of the team I root for. So when Boras moves my favorite player to the highest bidder and I am rooting for a team that gets supplemental picks it doesn't feel fair when Boras moves player Z to team X simply because my team can't afford the player. Is that selfish on my part? sure, but so is wanting your team to win and others to lose, it is part of what makes you a fan, wanting your team to win. If you are a top revenue generating team you love Boras because he prices out half the league most of the time so they have less competition for great players. If your team is one of the bottom revenue teams probably not so much because he makes it hard to keep your star players and field a competitive team. It isn't so much about hating Boras as it is how the market system in baseball is setup. Boras is doing his job and doing it well but market inequalities do make him look villainous to fans when he moves the best players on their team to another.

And 2018 might be as good or better than 2016 with Larnach Jeffers Sands Winder Willie Joe Gary Schulfer Smith,LaRon Neff And they did that one without their supplemental 2nd and third round picks. A ways to go to see how 2018 pans out but there is a chance it could be as good. Right now though I would have to say 2016 is my all time favorite draft for the Twins. Having three 2nd rounders certainly helped that draft along with getting a little lucky with Balazovich in the 5th round They surprisingly went mainly high upside high school players early which is unusual but payed off that year. .

Color me surprised especially about Arraez. I just couldn't see a way for them to get him his at bats that they seemed to indicate he deserved without playing there. I wonder if they don't see a ton of difference between Polonco and Arraez so he plays more 2nd than I initially thought and I think the entire infield has had leg problems at one time or another so giving guys more time off is probably going to be a good thing. I can see putting all three guys in left field to start the season so I just assumed they would keep Alex down but maybe if he has a really good spring they have him start the season there. I still think he is going to need to show out in spring training to get there otherwise it would be easy to justify putting other players there to start the season. I forgot who said it up above but the Twins currently and likely into the future shouldn't be short on 1st baseman, right or left fielders into the distant future as they have plenty of opportunity to draft those types of players (i.e. they have taken that type of player 5 straight times in the 1st round) and develop them Also they are generally the easiest to find in free agency. So if they did decide they didn't care about the extra year it shouldn't matter too much. In conclusion they might not be that worried about losing the extra year or maybe it is just a smokescreen to say, hey we were considering it, but we feel better with the other guys and will have Alex start in AAA. I honestly don't know what to think but thanks for the great writeup and letting me know how little I really do know about how this FO will operate.

OMG we are cursed at the SS position.

You have a good case there and i don't totally disagree, but we don't know how Kirilloff will perform right away in MLB. Jake Cave had essentially an 800 OPS in 2018 and 2019 what if this is his breakout year and he is ready to be even better? Rooker had a 900 OPS in a SSS last year it would be tough for Kirilloff to improve on that number. Like you said Kirilloff might be better than both of those players but he might be no better or worse too. We don't know yet. That is why each player is a possibility IMO. Do I believe Kirilloff will be better eventually, yes I do. Can I see the Twins starting with guys with MLB experience yes I can see that too. Like you I think they move on from Cave for a few reasons. One there is no room for him especially after this year. Two his service time will be arb'd soon and they have a ready replacement who can be just as good and likely better for less money the next three years. Three I think he is tradable. However, that doesn't preclude them from using him to start the season and fill in if injurie's happen for this year. I agree with you on Arraez but most things I am reading seem to point to the Twins feeling that is a place they can and will play him on occasion. They promised him at bats and he can only spell Polanco so often. If they want him to play and it seems they do he needs to be in Left field some days. I never said the Agent was the bad guy I mentioned his strategy leads to teams doing what they do. The players generally get the short end especially when it comes to service time I am just pointing out what I believe to be a flaw in his strategy for the players he reps.

I'll need to see his spring to really say for sure how i would proceed, but right now they have Cave, Arraez and Rooker to pencil in at Left field. The Twins might want to straighten that out before putting Kirilloff there because then you have one less place to play Arraez to start the season and probably need to trade Cave and then there isn't much room for Rooker who looked like he might be good as well. This isn't your typical case of Kirilloff is the best and only option to start the year in MLB. The Twins have a lot of options they will have to choose which way they want to go but it looks like it lines up with Kirilloff at AAA to me. If Kirilloff performs really, really well this spring that could change how the Twins feel about Cave and maybe they can rotate Arraez into the infield and left field to make room for his bat but that would pretty much leave Rooker out of the picture unless there is an injury or they decide to platoon him with Kepler. Lot's of ifs. I think they punt and leave Kirilloff at AAA until they see how guys are playing or they have a greater need due to injury. I get that Boras helps his clients get maybe more than they deserve sometimes but his unwillingness to extend clients hurts his clients in the end because then teams are pretty much forced to use what ever measures they can to retain control longer. If he extended when it made sense he wouldn't have that kind of problem but since he never does his players are most always going to have to play seven years until becoming FA's. At least until they change the service time rules.

I agree with you. I think a Berrios extension seems unlikely but they have him for two years and if he turns down the QO they should get a good draft pick for him at least. We have never had 5 to 6 pitchers with the quality of stuff that the current group of prospects have since I started following MiLB and I doubt if they have ever had that kind of talent bubbled up to the top ever before. I have to believe at least two of those 6 make it at some point and the rest if they don't make it should be excellent pen arms. Losing the 2020 MiLB season makes it harder to determine just where these guys are at as some of it is likely just hype until proven. Also injuries can change things in a hurry but you have to consider we haven't even gotten to see the pitchers from 2019 and there could be another stud or two in that group as well that could be ready at the end of 2022 or 2023. the cupboard is far from bare though. If the Twins finally start developing the pitching they need and are able to trade older players for younger ones I think they have a ten year stretch in them.

Contention depends on the competition to some degree. The White Sox are a younger possibly more talented version of the Twins right now with a solid 5 to 6 year core. The Indians are going to have an elite rotation for the next 5 to six years. If they ever get a formidable lineup in place they will be very tough to beat. KC is well on their way back with some solid young pitching coming up and decent bats right now. They don't have a solid core that I can see but a few trades and up and coming prospects could change that. Detroit has a ways to go but their pitching looks close as well. In a couple of years there core should be in place. The Twins have a lot of talent right now and coming up but they will have to find a way to remain better than the rest of the division. No easy task as now that most of the teams in the division are ready to compete with lots of talented young cores on the way, I like where the Twins are with the talent they have and the talent coming up. I would say I am most excited about the pitching prospects we have and the FO's ability to get the most out of the arms they have in the system. I think if they can pull off developing the pitching they need to compete, then I think they are truly set for a good long run.

It's a good question but trades are complicated. The decision to trade is based on so many different factors like Present value vs. future value. The odds of prospects even having future value. How many years of control are you giving up how many are you getting back, the money involved, etc. etc. In this case given what Pittsburgh got in the trade it would have taken more than Larnach to get that deal done. Larnach would have probably been the headliner but they probably would have needed to include someone like Sands and Rijo or Vallimont plus a throw in to get the deal done. To me that is a lot to give up for two years of Joe Musgrove for a SSS breakthrough in 2020. The years before that he looks replacement level to me. If he truly has turned the corner maybe but that is a ton of future value to give up for 2 years. The Pads can probably afford it as they had the number one farm in baseball and needed more pitching depth. Personally I think the Twins did just fine with Shoemaker and Happ. Both guys look like they should be as good or better than Musgrove and they gave up Zero prospects to get them. In the end Musgrove has only one more year of control compared to those guys as well. Maybe I am wrong but I don't feel like they missed out. Remember they have 5 young starters of which a couple should be looking for spots soon. Just because you have a surplus of talent somewhere doesn't mean you should just trade it for anything. I believe the Ramos\Matt Capps trade taught us that. Be patient be smart IMO. The Twins could have done that trade and justified it just like the Padres but I think they did the right thing by waiting.

Call me old school but I still like guys with good to great plate discipline to have a greater chance to make the jump to MLB because even if they are struggling to get hits they are not an automatic out when taking walks. Also making the pitcher work is an underrated skill in the home run or bust age of baseball. While I understand Law's concern, Larnach is a guy always looking to improve. Inside might be his weakness, and it is a weakness of lot's of MLB players, but Law doesn't seem to account for the great success he has had in the league to this point either. With the good eye at the plate I think Larnach will be just fine. I have been excited about Larnach for a long time. Will have to see how he does this year but I think 2022 is his year for the big team. I think he starts in AA this year as we have Kirilloff, Broxton and Garlick likely for AAA. There seems to be a shortage of outfielders for AA as I only see Contrares and Whitefield there with Larnach making number 3. That could easily change but I think they start him in AA as I think he only had half a year there and once Kirilloff moves then I think Larnach moves to AAA.

I was one who fell in with the draft experts and thought the Twins were crazy to pick him in that spot. It looked like there was a chance to get him in the 4th round but hard to say if he would have lasted that long or not. Not having that 3rd round pick that year seemed to force them to take him higher than they might have wanted. So far it looks like that was a good decision. Strange but that 2018 draft without their supplemental and third round pick is shaping up to be a good one with Larnach, Jeffers, Sands and Winder at the top end and Willie Joe Garry, Auston Schulfer, Zach Neff, LaRon Smith Regi Grace and Charles Mack still in the running to make a difference. I don't really know what to say about Jeffers that hasn't been said and after he burned me last time I am not that interested in doubting him again.

Given that analysis it seems like injuries are the main thing that have held him back. If he can stay healthy this could be a very good signing. Hopefully the Twins do what they can to keep him healthy.

Max really has only had the one good season when the ball was supposedly juiced so I think this article is spot on. Either they need to platoon him to get the most out of the bat or maybe Larnach is the ultimate answer. I really do love Max's defense in right and the HR power is definitely there but there are good bats on the way. He really does need a good year to prove he deserves his spot IMO. With his contract and ability to play to center I think it would be tough to trade him as he would still have value even as a platoon bat or fourth outfielder but if the right deal came along I could see it.

There are a lot of ifs for every team in the central. The only team I am counting out is Detroit. They don't seem to have the pitching or the hitting to contend just yet but I think they can beat their projections if some of their players improve this year. The Indians have the pitching to get it done the only question is will their hitters step up? If they do they can take the division their pitching is just that good. I tend to agree with Darius on the White Sox. Maybe I am a bit too star struck but if that lineup preforms then I am sorry but I think they take it this year. They have solid pitching and they have a young team. While young teams can be volatile they generally seem to have fewer injuries and that can make a difference especially later in the season. If KC's rookie pitchers perform they are going to be a tough team to beat. They have a solid group of hitters and while their pen seems old and less effective than some I think they will give teams trouble this year. The Twins have a good rotation and a great lineup but they have problems staying healthy. They do have a fair amount of depth so maybe they can overcome some of those injuries and keep things going but injuries are my greatest concern for the club this year. If they stay healthy I think they are the best team in the division if not then they could fall off. Should be a really competitive and fun season this year.

Thanks for this article and I agree with your analysis. I was curious as to why the Twins kept Garlick on the 40 man. I thought for sure they would keep an extra reliever on there. They had just traded Wade and gotten the 40 man down to 6 outfielders which seemed like a good idea to me. Also I didn't hear any rumors that the Twins were looking for a right handed bat for left field or right field for that matter. Sooo what gives? I guess if a guy like that falls into your lap you take a good hard look and see if he fits at worst you have right handed depth. I have been waiting all winter to hear something good about Chalmers but it has been crickets in regards to him at this point. I sure hope he had made some improvement on his control otherwise it is getting hard to see how he fits. Canterino and Winder have had major hype since last fall and all winter so I sure hope they prove it is for real. Would be nice to have two more big arms to go with Balazovic and Duran. I really liked the Hamilton pickup and am hoping the Twins can take him to another level. He seems to have the control he needs just might need to miss more bats. Can't hurt to see if they can make him something sprecial. I can't believe Tellis stayed with the Twins but man that is some nice insurance to have going into the season. Austudillo will have to prove his worth this year as there are all kinds of players that could slot into that spot. Thanks again for the article I do plan to watch these guys closely.