Dman

Boston can't expect some massive Prospect gain when they are dumping salary it just doesn't work that way. Also it's only 1 year of Betts not 2 or 3 just one. They are getting a fantastic deal as it is even without Graterol. Graterol is just a nice sweatner LA can give up because MN was willing to trade for Maeda and with Price they don't need Maeda. I just don't see how Boston can ask for much more here. I mean to fit Price in LA had to do a salary dump of their own with the Angels. I know the Boston fans and the press don't like the deal but this is what a salary dump looks like and it really is a good deal for Boston as they get 5 years of a player that come close to replacing what Betts does for much less and rid themselves of Price in the process. It just doesn't get much better than that for one year of a player.

Totally Agree with you. Getting 5 years of Verdugo for one year year of Betts is already a good deal for Boston not to mention the 30M in salary LA is taking on. Anything beyond that should be considered a bonus. Moving Price and 15M of his salary is also something LA has to take on all for just one year of Mookie Betts. Boston is already getting a hell of deal they don't need more.

He has been young for the levels he has been at all the way up and performed reasonably well. His K9 and WHIP have not been as good as I had hoped when we got him but like the article stated the projection is still there and still on track. A big year this year and he makes all the previous angst go away. If he does develop as hoped we are going to have good young pitching coming up in the next few years.,

Hard to get too excited about Canterino and Wallner just yet because they haven't even played a full season in pro ball, but I agree they had decent debuts. Also hard to rank them but given their draft postion this seems about right. I know Javier is young and has a lot of potential high end tools but after watching him I really don't think he belongs in the top 20. I didn't see anything that led me to believe he looked better than the worst guy on the Cedar Rapids team. He really needs to up his game this year or I predict he will fall off the prospect map. I like Thorpe and I think he is the best Left handed pitching prospect we have had in a long time. Right now the results don't match the stuff though. He has a tendency to walk guys and allow the big hit far too often. Better control would probably go a long ways toward him reaching his potential. I still like him a lot and have no problem with where he is ranked. Celestino should be higher IMO. After he warmd up last year he was arguably one of the best hitters in the system and for a center fielder he looks like he has all the tools to be a good one. Arm might be a little light but not Ben Revere noodle arm either. I am really excited about this kid. Still needs to continue to do well at the higher levels but I agree with the other poster who said he should be close to untradable as he is starting to realize much of his projected potential. It's another good list just not quite as exciting as the list before it because of Javier and the two players that are so new it is hard to pin down how good they are.

I had the same question myself last night. Why didn't Boston just take Maeda from LA. He is a good value for starting pitcher and with Price gone they needed someone decent in the rotation. They still have a shot a world series why go for the prospect? The only thing I could come up with is they really wanted to clear salary more than they let on. The other thought is they don't think Maeda is a needle mover in the AL. It is that aspect of the trade that worries me some. Graterol is only 21 and he makes throwing 100 look incredibly easy. The shoulder impingment last year is worrisome (brings back Alex Meyer anxiety) but hard to say if that means he can't start. At any rate it seems like a good gamble for Boston. His floor is elite reliever and being so young he should be around a good long time in Boston. I was OK with the Twins starting the year with Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer filling in but as many have pointed out that left very little depth if the team encountered injuries and banking on Rich Hills perfect recovery doesn't seem like a leap of faith you take with the kind of team we have right now. Adding Maeda seems like it raises the bar for the rotation and adds depth to the rotation so we should all breath a little easier to start the season. Is this the ace type needle mover we all felt was needed? I don't think so. Was it worth trading Graterol for Meada? If Graterol turns out to only be reliever then I think this is an OK move if he is more than that we lose this trade big time. One last thought. We still have Duran, Balazovic and maybe Colina who are hard throwers with plenty of wild cards in Canterino, Sands, Rijo and Vallimont who could have pretty good stuff. Still plenty of pitching in the system so not the end of the world. I hate losing that big arm (a true 100 mph dream arm) and I hope this works in our favor but I have my doubts.

On this list I am most excited about Sands. I didn't expect much from a 5th round pick with not particularly great College stats so he has exceeded expectations for me. His numbers from A ball to AA never really wavered which tells me his stuff plays well and he has the control needed to make it in MLB. He goes right after hitters and dares them to hit his stuff. I know most scouts have him as a number 5 but I really think he ends up a three. I know it was just one year but I was really, really impressed with what he was able to do. I had high hopes for Miranda this past year and he really let me down. I know he was very young for the level and high A is tough on hitters but I thought he would at least manage a 700 something OPS the meager 650 he hit left me thinking what happened to that power stroke? He has time to right the ship but he is rule V eligible at the end of this year so he needs to perform like the great player I know he can become. Given the reports I have read I question if Colina is a starter or not. Still love his stuff but it feels like he is missing that quality third pitch he needs to be a starter. Maybe he finds it this year hard to say but without it I think he gets exposed as he moves up. If he does fail as a starter he should be a really good pen arm. He always seem to have good stats it was really just control holding him back but he looked better last year so here's hoping he finds a way to stick in the rotation. It is a very nice 16-20. Hoping to see improvement from these guys this year. We definitely need the pitchers to step up. Right now I am an optimistic believer in these guys.

IMO Chacin is the most likely to make it. There will be room on the 40 man for a starting pitcher and we are short on arms to start the year. Unless he looks horrible or the Twins find someone better I think he takes that last spot. Outside chance to make it for me would be Thielbar and Hardy. They are both Lefty arms with bounce back potential. Personally I think they only make it to the 40 man if there are injuries but they have a shot if they pitch well this spring. Everyone else seems like a long shot to me.

To be honest it was something that had crossed my mind as well but after looking into it, it didn't seem to be much of an issue. I thought you made a good point and one I hadn't considered about the playoff pitchers we will face. That does make it more of an issue when and if we get to that level but it does seem minimal compared to our potential pitching issues. In the end I think there is a healthy balance in this lineup and we might have lefties on the way by the end of this year if things go well on the farm for the top prospects.

Yes that is very true. No one has proven they need to be added yet and we have all year this year to assess value before the outfield could be over crowded and tougher decisions need to be made, Just jumping the gun a little there because I feel over confident that Rooker and Kirrilloff will need to be added and we can't keep all those left fielder\1st basemen on the 40 man. I am still bullish on Rosario too and think that if he performs just a little better this year the Twins will keep him next year as well. We'll have to wait and see what happens. Personally I think Wade and Raley are the ones that need to really perform to keep their 40 man spots. It is gonna be a big year for the boys on the farm. Perform well or get sent packing.

Things are definitely crowded in the outfield no question about it. The 40 man is full of talent as well. If you drop some of the younger guys off of it with the exception of Raley and Chalmers you are essentially dropping a top 20 prospect and gifting that player to another organization. Wisler and Harper are about the only true flexibility left IMO. That being said if injury in the outfield or 1st base I have to beliave Raley gets the first shot. He is on the 40 man and they need to see what he can do to either make it or clear a spot. Next in line is probably Rooker he is older and needs to be on the 40 next year anyway to be protected from the Rule V draft. If Rooker is injured or having a down year then Kirilloff would be up as he needs to be added next year as well. Larnach is likely the odd man out unless he is just killing it and doing much better then the players mentioned above. If no injuries it is going to be very tough for anyone from the minors to find a spot on the 40 man. Even with injuries they might get passed over so that we don't lose someone else. Personally I think the FO lets them play this year and try's to decide who to keep and who to trade to strengthen the team around the deadline. They will have more information on the state of the farm to make better decisions by then.

Eddie started the year almost making it to the all star game but he wasn't the same player after he injured his ankle. That injury likely did impact his offense and defense some but hard to know how much. The question is, is Rosario an All Star or a good but flawed player. I don't think he has answered that question just yet. The thing is we only have the data we have and right now Jake Cave (in a SSS) had a better OPS than Rosario last year. So overall he appears to be just as good as Rosario with the bat and probably better in the field. Granted Cave's slugging isn't as good as Rosario and you might have to give up close to ten HR's per year given Caves production thus far but you would also be getting a player that doesn't swing at pitches a mile outside and walks at more then double the rate Rosario does. Caves value lies in walks and Rosario's weakness is a lack of walks. Believe it or not outs matter in baseball they kill rally's in a hurry. Rosario's OBP is always low and that affects how productive he is. If he had eye even somewhat close to Arraez he would be a perenial All Star but alas his swing at everything approach has him falling short. If Jake Cave can be as productive Rosario for a fraction of the cost why hang onto Rosario that is the question people are asking. Not to mention our two best hitters in the minors can play his position and might be ready for MLB as early as this year. Eddie has always been a good player and a fan favorite I think primarily because he is not afraid of big moments and likes to try and rise to the occassion and sometimes does. If Rosario has an All Star season no question the Twins do their best to hang onto him, but like the OP said he needs to be better by a decent margin to hold onto his spot as there are players nipping at his heals who can be close to as productive for a lot less money. Money that can go to spots we don't have good substitutes for.

It seems to me they tried to be careful with him last year in AA and he still ended up hurt. IMO they don't believe his arm can hold up to a starters load without injury. Maybe it won't hold up to pen work either but probably best to get his arm through a full season first and then go from there. If he can help the MLB club out of the pen while doing that then all the better.

Seth thanks for putting this together. It was something I was going to do myself because I wanted to keep an eye on the guys that might need to get protected this year, but you do better work\have more knowledge than I do. I really appreciate the list and will bookmark\steal this page from you. It is early but the possibles still have a chance to make themselves Givens. I think 3 or 4 of them will. I am still pretty high on Jax. I know he didn't get protected and no one took him but I think he is one plus pitch away from making it. He has the control and isn't afraid to throw strikes just needs another out pitch to bring that K9 up and he is a viable MLB starter. I know that easier said than done but I think he makes some adjustments and gets there. I think you have Rortvedt on the wrong list. The guy threw out around 50% of the runners trying steal this past year and yeah his bat slumped as the year went on but he hasn't been horrible with the bat either. He will totally get taken if not protected. Miranda, Baddoo and Javier all have to shine with the bat this year to need to be protected but at least one of those guys will break out. Unless Rijo and Ober stumble they will most certainly need to protected as they will be at the higher levels and have enough stuff to get taken. Might even see a bubble or two or three make it to the givens as well. I am a pretty big Sammons believer. He struggled a bit at AA but he is a big lefty and I like his odds. Severino was injured last year so might have some rust to start the year but I bet he gained strength and if that power shows up he might need protection. I have no idea what to expect from Lachlan Wells but wouldn't bet against him. He might end up a reliever and not protected but I think he has the stuff to be really good. Have to wait and see yet though. I mean it all depends on how these guys perform. I was kind of disappointed last year at how several prospects performed so you never know when a prospect will tough stretch or completely plateau and no longer be able to compete at a higher level. Will have to wait to know but I think there will some even tougher decisions next year when it comes to protecting players. Again thanks for the list as I like looking and thinking about this stuff even if it is too early.

There is no question the Twins likely have more outfielders than they can protect. With Celestino on the 40 man the 40 man has 1 too many outfielders on it already and at the end of this year we will need to protect Kirilloff, Rooker and possibly Baddoo. Not to mention we still have Larnach in the wings who will likely be ready in the next year or two tops with Wallner likely not far behind. There is no urgency to do anything about that situation just yet but if the above mentioned all perform well we won't be able to keep them all. We also will likely have to protect Balazovic, Sammons, and Ober next year. If Barnes, Jax and Wells perform well this year then would likely have to find room for them too. Infield is just Miranda and possibly Javier if he ever finds his swing but add that up and there is a possible 11 adds if everyone performs. Granted they won't all do well next year. Someone is going to get hurt or slump or be deemed not worthy of being added. The thing is there are 7 guys that are likely going to need to be added two of them are outfielders and one is outfielder\1st baseman not mention one guy who might force his way on early in Larnach. So I agree the system is getting to a point where trades need to be considered. Who should be traded there is less clarity on. Until we see how those 11 perform we don't know if we really have excess prospect capital or not. Also just because a prospect is good through AA an=d AAA doesn't mean the skillset will translate to MLB so it is a bit of a guessing game in the end. I love how this FO has stacked waves of prospects but in doing a good job there they need to protect that investment by trading some of the excess for things they need right now. Hopefully they make the right decisions when they do it.

That is decent velocity then. I don't know why but I see Smeltzer more as a number 5 guy. Maybe he can prove me wrong. Not sure what to think about Dobnak just can't argue with the results he has had so far.

Sure the Twins could use another top of the rotation starter all teams could. I think the questions should be do we have that top of the rotation starter in the system ready for this year? Thorpe and Dbnak seem to the only two that appear to have innings and stuff to make it the whole year so you would be depending on them to step into that role. I just don't know enough about Poppen to know if he has top of the rotation stuff or not. Graterol and Duran might have ace type stuff but they don't have the innings to last through the year. If I remember correctly Dobank isn't that hard of a thrower and his K9 isn't real high so the odss of him being better than number 4 seem remote but his results so far seem to defy that theory at least so far. Other than the playoff game he has a very nice ERA and WHIP so maybe if you squint he can be a three. Thorpe appears to have the stuff the K9 needed to be an ace but he has been quite hittable and given a few too many free passes in his SSS of work. He might make it to a number three but again seems a stretch. So I am not sure if we have guys that are better than Berrios, Pineda and Odo in the system but I guess we won't know until we see what those guys can do. I do agree with Seth that if they trade for someone it needs to be a pitcher as good or better than our top three guys. If they can find that guy for the right price this offseason I am all for it, but I am also fine seeing what we have and waiting for teams to realize they are out of it and need to make a trade. Maybe just maybe we get lucky like Cleveland and find two very good home grown pitchers that help us through the playoffs.

Gray and Ray are intriguing but we don't really know that either are available at this time. Those teams would likely like to see if their team gels and can compete until the end of the season so it would take a major, major overpay to get those guys. I doubt either one is worth it. Same goes for Boyd and that is an in division trade and I just don't trust what pitcher Boyd is at this time seems like a terrible risk to take to me. Personally I think the young guys we have are as good as the entire Marlins pitching staff and Musgrove. I know it is a small sample size but Smeltzer's stats look eerily similar to Alcantara's and Musgroves. Would those guys really be upgrades? Again small sample size but Dobnaks's 1.59 Era and 1.13 WHIP beats every pitcher named so far. Granted he doesn't have the K9 of Gray or Ray but it sure looks like his stuff might play as well as any of the other guys mentioned. Honestly the only guy on this list I would consider is Gray. He might move the needle for this staff but here's the thing between Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Graterol and Duran we might have the impact pitching we need right in our own system. Again I know small sample size but it is all I have, Smeltzer pitched as well as anyone on the Marlins staff and his stats look better than most of the guys on this list. I think Thorpe will improve he has the stuff he just needs some time to settle in IMO. Dobnak is a bit of wild card as I just don't understand how he gets the results he does but he could be one of those guys that could be a pseudo ace in the making. Graterol likely can't pitch in the rotation the whole year but could give us the jump start we need until all the vets are up and running. Same could be true for Duran if Graterol isn't up to the task. The other wild card is Poppen who had good enough stuff to get added to the 40 man so if he catches fire then there is another arm to see if he has that IT factor. Just like we thought we needed arms in the pen last year the FO believed in the guys they had and although it was a bumpy ride it worked out. This year I think they ride with the young starting pitchers and see what they have. If it all breaks down and they all stink or get hurt then sure trade for what you need. Until then though I would ride with what we have unless you can grab a true difference maker that would be better than what you already potentially have.

I pretty much agree with your take here. I honestly think the FO is going to go with the young guys to start the year. Through April they likely only need to cover one spot in the rotation so they just need to cover two spots for one month tops which equals 5 or six starts from the young guy(s) who fill Pineda's spot. Once Hill is back later in the year then all five spots are filled by vets until the end of the year. I think the FO wants to know what they have in a Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer or Graterol so they can make a decision on if they are a part of the teams future or not because they have Balazovic, Cole, Colina and maybe Vallimont, Enlow and Canterino who they might want to add if they pitch well this year. They can't keep all these number 4\5 starters on the 40 man so will have to make some decisions fairly soon. In the playoffs we didn't have Pineda and the issue wasn't starting pitching as much as the bullpen and the bats going quiet. I know depending on Hill is not a great strategy but he could end up being a difference maker as well. If Thorpe or one of the young guys steps up then that is timely or gravy as well. That being said if that is the plan they don't have much veteran depth if one them gets hurt and can't pitch the rest of the year. They would be vulnerable to start the year with the young pitching but I still think that is a risk they will be willing to take. If they can find a trade partner for a top-line starter I am all for it. I just don't see them doing it until they feel forced by injury or ineffectiveness of the guys they have.

Wow I never thought they would get him. Totally expected Atlanta or Washington to swoop in and grab him. I have to say I am surprised but glad they went to 92M. 95 was my high point limit was hoping for 90 but 92 works just fine. Our lineup is going to be crazy tough now. Lots or right handed power to go against lefties, There really isn't anyone you can pitch around in this lineup now and pretty much everyone is good for 20 to 30 dingers as well. Even better he helps with defense on the left side. This signing solves a lot of defensive issues. Hopefully JD stays healthy he is a big part of this team now. GO Twins and Thank You FO.

I for one am very happy it is on its way. I plan to absorb all the material as soon as possible.

This is really good news. His bat is big when he is on. I never thought he would agree to extend. Glad we get him through most of his prime. Now please just stay healthy.

Totally agree that he gives the Twins a monster lineup. 1 - 9 there would be no place to hide for a pitcher. His defense might be an even bigger boost than his offense. He would really help the team for the next two years maybe more if he ages well. if 3/75 was the prediction starting out adding a year makes it 4/100. I know it feels a year to long to get true value but it looks like that is what it will take to give us something special for the next two years.

Let me first say that Stephen was one of my favorite players coming up all the way through AAA. His K-rate and ERA always seemed to be good. I always wondered why Law was so low on him. Then I finally got to see him pitch and I could start to see why. He is not a hard thrower and his fastball didn't seem to have a ton of movement. He seemed to need to place it off the plate to have any success. His curve is really slow and seemed hittable at the MLB level. I mean it seemed like it took forever for the ball to get to the plate. Then he got hurt and it seemed like the Twins had other pitchers with better stuff ahead of him and only so many 40 man spots. I think they were hoping no one would grab him and they could stash him in AAA but that was not to be as the Mets claimed him. We will see if that turns out to be a mistake or not but I think the Twins felt he didn't have what they were looking for in a pitcher or else they would have done more to protect him. I was sad to see him go but I also understand the decision.

I would really like to see the Twins up their offer to 4/95 or 4/100. It's not that much more than their current 4/85 anyway. I think he is worth 23 or 24 M per year for at least the first two years. It looks like they are going to rely on the farm to supply the arms anyway so they should have the payroll room. If they lose out with that type of offer then fine but would like to see them stretch a little bit for the team and the fans.

Would be nice if Valdez works out as we could use all the good third base prospects we can get. What can you tell me about Lawyerson, does he throw around 95 or does he just have good secondaries? Also hard to tell how good he might be based on his E-town stats but his K rate was fantastic. I am hopeful he is the real deal. Hoping they start Canterino in High A as he didn't seem to have much trouble in A ball.