Dman

I was happy to see Charlie pitch well. I watched some of the game on MLB.com. He looked good. I think the lack of K's unfortunately tells the story that he is going to have a hard time breaking into MLB. He only K'd one player in 4.2 innings so his stuff is pretty hittable. Would be nice if he had a put away pitch in his back pocket and hopefully he finds one. Still was very pleased with how well he did his first time out and he has to be happy he put the team in a position to win they just didn't come through for him.

I don't think the Twins will be willing to send much money over with Donaldson in a trade scenario. I could see them covering the money this year to some degree as he is a sunk cost anyway but the idea of paying 6, 7, or 8 million a year to another team to watch him OPS 850 or so would hurt. If a team wants Donaldson they are likely going to have to pay for Donaldson IMO. It is not like this team is full of guys OPSing 800 or better. I believe there are exactly two Cruz and Donaldson. So in many ways the Twins need his bat as well. Granted he has had his share of calf issues but if he ends up playing the majority of the season I don't think those issues are too bad. If a team is willing to take on Donaldson's salary then sure I could see the Twins turning around and investing that money in a Shortstop next year I just don't see them willing to eat money on that deal while watching him play somewhere else.

I hate to be that guy but Hanner has been really bad. He has more hits allowed than innings pitched and almost as many walks given up as innings pitched for a WHIP of 2. The bad thing is it doesn't seem like he is improving it looks like this is who he is. He needs to find an out pitch or something he can rely on. Hoping the pitching coaches can up with something to make him more effective.

Buxton is already on the record stating he would prefer to only play for one team his whole career and that money isn't the most important factor to him. Berrios has never ruled out an extension but hasn't felt the Twins have come up with an offer that is acceptable just yet. He has always been positive about getting a deal done and has never said he wants out of Minnesota. Honestly I think for most players they just want to play the game. They generally want to stay with the organization they grew up in. The organization where they know the coaches, grew up with the players they have played with their whole career. It is home. It is comfortable but, they also realize it is a business. Some players prioritize maximizing making the most money they can while they can. Some are more risk averse willing to sign deals early to make sure they at least get one good payday and don't have to worry as much about injury. Everybody is different. Sure players want to win but they want to win with the guys they came up with. They believe in each other. Trust each other. Have each others backs. When it comes to the business side if the home team will offer close to what another team is offering the players usually stay. Some will take a home town discount just to stay. I don't think either player thinks the Twins are a depressing team and or are worried about playoff wins. They are there to fix those issue's. They believe in themselves and their team. Sometimes things don't go your way in life that doesn't mean you quit it means you try harder to get better. Both of these players will stay if they get paid what they think they are worth on the market or close to it. If not then they have no choice but to head to the market and see what they really are worth. That is pretty much it end of story.

I don't have a lot of faith that Beau Burrows is going to be any better for the Twins. He is on the 40 man so giving him a shot can't hurt but he doesn't look like a long term solution anywhere to me. When they have room they should add Cano your analysis is spot on. He is 27 has been having success and has multiple pitches. He has a chance to make it so would be good to get him some experience and see what he can do. I really liked the Hamilton pickup when they made it but he was pretty hittable when they tried him out this spring. His AAA numbers are impressive except for the walks. He is not currently on the 40 man but he is another arm that I would like to see get a chance. I have always been intrigued by Mason. Hard to say if his stuff would translate but I agree with the OP that it would be nice to see what he can do given the chance. Absolutely want to see what Jovani Moran can do in MLB. I am worried his fastball is too hittable but if he can work through that he would be a great setup man. I have been watching him for a looong time so would really like to see him make it. Vallimont likely needs to be added to the 40 man at the end of the year so if they can find a way to sneak him in and get some experience I am all for it. I still queation his control as he has this tendency to walk multiple guys and not even be close to the strike zone. Not sure what his deal is sometimes but then he has this ability to almost K guys at will. Hopefully he gets things under control and can be a piece of the future.

In my mind the list of suitors means little. The Twins only need one team to realize the difference he can make and pay a good price to get a deal done. I would think Seattle would be that team. They just need another bat and a few more runs and I think they can catch the A's. If I am the A's I do everything I can to block Seattle from getting him and adding him only helps their offense going forward. If I am the Blue Jays I want that difference making bat to try and steal some wins from the Yankee's, Ray's and Boston and if they get pitching on top of it maybe they become wild card favorites. His bat could literally be the difference in the wild card race between those teams if you ask me. Granted they all need more pitching as well but I think the team that gets Cruz barring significant pitching injuries is the team that takes the wild card. I think that is all you need to drive up the price IMO.

I don't disagree with you. Honestly he looks like a reliever to me not starter. Should\could be elite as a reliever though. Pitcher timelines are generally tougher than hitters because arm injuries can set them back so far. So yeah it is taking longer than we would like but Covid is playing a role in timelines as these guys couldn't play for a year so keep that in mind. I think Falvey mentioned this but teams don't like to trade talent at AA and beyond easily but will add players that are further away. Whatever we get we will most likely have to wait before they help unless the FO works a trade using some of these pieces in the offseason. They just have to look for the most value another team is willing to give. The best deal is the best deal even if they don't like it they might have to take it.

Yeah the return won't likely be as good as Betts. Probably one big headliner and then some lottery tickets thrown in. The injury history is going to hurt the return so I think you are right about that.

Lots of guys should have bet on themselves. Acuna should have bet on himself, Ooops he just got injured. Has to be nice to know he is covered no matter what happens in his recovery. It all depends on how you want to look at it I guess. If he likes being in Minnesota and playing with the guys he came up with and the Twins offer is in the ballpark why not take it? If he never plays another game or gets too many concussions he is covered and guaranteed that money. Only he can decide but I don't always think betting on yourself is as easy as we think it is.

If they don't sign him I would think a return slightly under the Betts and Lindor deals would be what we can expect. Unless traded at the deadline which seems unlikely he would only have one year left so there is only so much you can expect to get for one year of a player. As for top 100 prospects they are nice to get with a greater chance to succeed but Duran wasn't a top 100 prospect in the Escobar trade and now he is top 2 or 3 in the Twins system. Sometimes trades work out, sometimes they don't that is the risk taken when trading. Bostons trade seems to be working out OK for them. I don't see why we can't get a similar result.

Yeah that is my thinking as well. If he is the player he thinks he is then after 4 years he can still sign another big contract. If his hit tool stays good be can still play a long time even if he ages out of center.

That is what we all thought but he has been doing so well starting I think they let him go until he hits a wall he can't break through. Right now though his stuff is working as a starter so I believe they will keep him in that role.

Depending on the system though I can see him getting a guy inside a teams top 10. The Twins were able to get Duran and Maciel for Esco I think they should be able to do as well or better for Cruz.

You definitely think bigger than I do. I think the Dodgers would have a tough time making that deal especially since they really seem to love May. They would have to like Berrios more than May to do that deal and I am not sure they would. Freedman always wins the trades he makes and he would have a tough winning that one. I think he would look to give up more future assets than close to ready but if the Twins could wrangle those two players out of the Dodgers I would do it. Piepot Looks in line with WInder and Balazovic which could give the Twins trio of young frontline starter to go along with May. That could look pretty special in 2023 and beyond. I don't love the San Diego trade but if the Twins can't keep Buxton then that trade certainly has value as well. Both trades feel well thought out and bold for both sides. I doubt they happen but love your ideas on these two.

Thanks! Sorry I missed those earlier comments. Was hoping that fastball had a bit more velocity but he has had good success so far even being moved around in 14 innings of work his ERA is still zero. So he must have some decent stuff. I was looking for info because I was wondering if he could be a viable lefty relief arm. I hope they can get him back to AA and see just how well his stuff plays there long term.

Great story thanks! I do love that he looks good from both sides of the plate. It is long ways to go for High School picks but having his brother lead the way for him should help speed him along. I really like the pick and hope he can stay at short as we really need up the middle players.

I agree with you. He has said in the past that he believes in himself so I just don't see him selling himself short. For me I kind of like the Hicks comp. Hicks has been hurt quite a bit as well but Buxton is the greater talent. At least they are trying to do something but I think it falls far short of what Buxton's agents expectations are. I get the Twins concern though. Buxton will be on the wrong side of thirty soon and will be more injury prone not less as time goes on. With all the freak injuries he has lost most of his prime production years. From the outside looking in as a fan it seems like a fair deal but in the baseball world I think this deal falls far short. I don't think he signs.

I don't know if anyone caught the Cubs trade with Atlanta but for a guy who is OPSing 718 they got Atlanta's number 12 prospect. I think Cruz is more valuable than that. I think ya all are selling Cruz a bit short. Both Oakland and Seattle need him pretty badly and I wouldn't count Tampa out unless they do make a move for a 1st baseman and depending on how much capital the Blue Jays spend on pitching upgrades they still might be interested in Cruz as well. Cruz is a top ten bat in all of MLB. For a team with postseason aspirations he could possibly be their David Ortiz type bat and carry them in the playoffs if he gets hot. He is true difference maker for getting to the postseason and possibly moving through it. I think teams will pay for that. Maybe not with their top 5 prospects but I still think he brings back something good all on his own.

I believe we have had the walks discussion on this board before and I think it was Brock who brought this one fundamental point home to me. The most important thing a team can do offensively is not make outs. A walk is not an out. A walk may not be as powerful as a hit but its most important function is that it does not create an out and as you pointed out it puts that all important stress on the pitcher because he usually has had to throw 5 to 8 pitches or more and still did not produce an out. Walks are one of the best ways too stress a pitcher and that is just one of the reasons they are important. Want more pitcher stress then walk a guy like Buxton who can likely steal second almost every time. Walk the leadoff hitter and you might be a double a way from scoring a run. Walks are far more important than you are giving them credit for.

Most of my favorite pitchers pitched last night and all the starters did well. Was happy to see Louie wasn't bothered by moving up a level. Balazovic made me feel better as he dominated. Gipson-Long had his typical bumps in the road but good start non the less type effort. But can anyone tell me more about Aaron Rozak? So far he has dominated the FCL for 6 innings went to AA and had 3 scoreless innings and then pitched in A ball and had 5 scoreless innings. He is 25 so old for the level but I am wondering what he throws and how he got to the Twins.

Yeah he was rusty in his first few starts but seems to be back to where he left off in 2019. I don't know why they wouldn't push him to St. Paul as he looks ready and able to handle a higher level. He was crazy good last night carried a no hitter into the top of the 6th inning I believe. Those hitters were so messed up they had no idea what he was gonna throw at them. I guess that is why so many of them just stood there and took called third strikes. They should keep him and Winder on the same path for now.

Honestly I think his agent\agency just wants to prove what he can do through a full season to gauge his price tag but he always gets these freak injuries. I don't see an extension on the horizon because they don't want to sell buck short and the Twins don't want to overpay. Both sides need to see him make it through a season healthy otherwise I think they let him go. Maybe I am completely wrong but we will see.

He is a good to great hitter no doubt but those knee's do worry me. According to Fangraphs his UZR at 3rd base is negative -1.3 right now. He has a chance to change that for the better but even in his best year 2019 his UZR there was only 0.6 I don't think you can bank on him being a plus defender at 3rd, more likely a slight liability. Even at second this year his UZR is - 0.4. You are going to be lucky to get average defense out of him pretty much anywhere and more likely slightly below average. His walk rate while good is not elite as it has never been 100 points above his average. In 2019 he did have an over 800 OPS which is good but if he is going to hang in the 700 OPS range we can find other guys that can do that. Polanco's batting average is 80 points lower and yet his OPS is higher because he has hit 12 HR's and I believe one or two of those won games for us that is the power of power and why teams like players to have power. I am not trying to dis on Arraez he is a very good player I just believe he is more replaceable than you do. The Twins don't have to trade him as you said he is young, cheap and controllable and right now there is room for everybody. I just personally think he is going to need to up his game to stay with the Twins. He has a very good batting average but OPS is the name of the game and he is far from elite in that category. At his best he offers average defense and likely slightly below. He doesn't run particularly well. I am not sure that screams elite player to me. You could say he has an elite hit tool for putting balls in play I guess but if he doesn't move that OPS into the 800 range he looks replaceable to me. Edit: FWIW Polanco's defense at 2nd has actually been worse than Arraez and their OPS's are currently close to the same. Polanco does run better but has a balky ankle as well. They both have their warts.

Totally agree with this. Prospects can look great but if they cannot conquer MLB then they can't help. Even now Steer is in a slump and might be hurt as he hasn't played in a while. Jullien isn't hitting as well as he was and they both could flame out at AA or AAA. You can't bank on prospects but you have to build with them. I do think Miranda with the low K rate and high contact rate is about as close to a sure thing as you can get especially since he is doing so well at AAA. All indicators point to a successful transition. He won't likely have a 900 OPS in MLB but neither does Arraez. But to your point I have seen way too many prospects on the cusp of playing MLB that failed to trust that a prospect will be able to replace someone who is producing at the MLB level. Still if they can get something they need for Arraez I think they can cover 2nd base just fine.

The only player they have that might be close to ready at SS is Palacios and even though he is having a great year at AA likely is no better of a hitter than Simmons at the MLB level. To solve SS they would likely need to trade Berrios or sign one of the better ones in FA. With the Lewis ACL injury I don't see him as a great fit for short anymore. This is a guy who slipped and messed up his ACL do you really want him twisting and turning and making throws from short when it seems like his knee's might not hold out that well? I think center field would make more sense. I don't think Javier has what it takes to be anything more than a utility player. Cavaceo is a long ways away. So they are not in good shape at SS system wise at all. I can see why they reached for the Wisconsin kid in the draft. They need more up the middle guys. Even if Polanco gets more expensive I still think they could get rid of Arraez as they are incredibly stacked at 2nd base in the system right now and likely into the future because any SS that doesn't make it can play there. If they can get value from Arraez they should, if they can't then yeah keep him his numbers are solid and his production should remain at decent levels especially if used as a utility player.