Dman

I get what you are saying but in practice those types of trades don't happen very often mainly because when teams are trading away established players with few years of control left they are looking for prospects close to MLB ready mot MLB players as they can gain 6 years of control of a player for less money. They are betting said player (prospect) will make it and hopefully in a few years time. Teams that get supplemental picks generally do this because payroll is limited and they need to maximize value. They can't easily do that by taking back a MLB player unless they are on a contract that is priced low. Trading good established players for a lessor established MLB player and a lessor prospect doesn't really help much and actually is more likely to set a team back than move them forward. That is why most teams trade established players for the best prospects they can. There are exceptions of course but in general that is what happens. The Twins appear to be at a point where the players they believed in collectively haven't been good enough to take on the top teams. They have too many pitching holes to cover in free agency and not enough good arms on the farm to cover enough holes in the rotation and or pen. They need to maximize the value of the established players they have and trade for players that have greater future value if they want to move forward. Hopefully they come up with a group that gels in the next couple of years that can move their talent closer to the elite teams. If not then they have to start over again. The teams at the top are not mediocre they have close to star talent at most all positions. The Twins have to match that if they want to win the division and a playoff game. I don't think they can do that with your proposed strategy.

I think Rogers likely is thinking more 3/30 to sign early. I think May money is his floor personally. He is a lefty which is much, much harder to find. As someone mentioned in another post good lefties have lot's of trade value at the deadline and the open market. He might back down from 3/30 but not by much maybe 3/27 to stay with his home team. I think 10M for an elite lefty is probably the starting point but I guess we will see.

I don't know if he is ready or not but Palacios has a near 300 average and 870 OPs in AA right now. If he isn't added to the 40 at the end of the year he could be lost in rule V. It would be nice if they moved him to AAA sooner rather than later to see if the bat still plays there as well. If it does why not add him early and try him out at MLB in a lost 2021. If you don't like what you see take him off the 40 man. If you do maybe he is an option for 2022. Same thing for Miranda he is killing it at AA right now and needs to be added to the 40 man at the end of the year. Why not ad him early and see what he can do at the MLB level.

I guess Schulfer read my post that he isn't really a starter and should be a reliever, lol. He pitched really well last night. Man the MiLB arms have been falling like flies lately. Might be no one left standing at the end of the year. Miranda with a huge game. He was locked in last night. Jullien was as well as he runs his OBP up to 505. The hitting appears to be improving throughout the system. The impressive thing to me is guys are taking walks. They are forcing the pitcher to throw the ball across the plate and not getting themselves out. Steer has more walks than K's and Julien has 46 walks and 47 K's. Both players look ready for new challenges.

I agree with you but are both sides willing to get a deal done? If Rogers is going to wait it out then the best move is to trade him because this team isn't likely to pay 9 to 16 M per year to keep him. Given what you just said I don't see why he couldn't make that much or more.

I guess they can take look and see if they can fix anything. Wes does not have a good success rate with that this year though. Lack of control hurt Waddell who is now gone who they didn't fix and Gibaut who isn't happy until he walks a bunch of guys. I have my doubts they get much out of him but you never know.

Hate to see the Twins trade any Left handed pitchers as they seem to have tough time finding them. In this case I think it depends on a lot of factors. 1st how many guys are they trading at the deadline? How many prospects will they need or be able to play? They might get two for Cruz, Two for Pineda, Another for Simmons, and maybe another for Robles, if they trade Rogers do they even have room for that many guys in the system? 2nd with the bullpen showing up as a big weakness this year do we really want the one reliable arm we have traded away? He is a lefty as well and that makes it even harder to let him go. To your point though he will never have more prospect value than he does now and he can't help the team the last half of this year and like we found out with May when it comes time to pony up for relievers the Twins let them leave with no compensation. So yeah they would have to and likely will look at trade scenarios for Rogers. They won't let him go on the cheap but if a team thinks he is their missing piece and overpays I assume the Twins will seal the deal.

Roger I agree most of that 2019 class is exceling in the lower levels right now. The Twins might have gotten their best hitter in the 18th round. Julien has a 315 BA 500 OBP 485 SLG and 985 OPS on the season. Those are top prospect numbers. In fact I don't think I have seen those types of numbers at A ball for a Twins hitter ever especially the 500 OBP. Julien is not an easy guy to get out. Spencer Steers numbers are top three in the High A central and the ding on him coming out of the draft was his lack of power. He seems to have put that to rest with his 10 HR's and a 527 SLG percentage. Pretty sure he will moving up prospect lists this year. Pitchers in this class include Canterino, Gipson-Long, Varland, Mooney and Lawyeryson who all have excelled with K rate. ERA and WHIP for the most part. Headrick, Gross, Legumina and Shreve have done well in spurts so lot's of promising pitching in the system still from the 2019 draft. Like you said a more in depth look could help us see the Twins did well in the 2019 Draft.

If the bullpen continues to stabilize yeah I think they have a chance to improve. No matter what happens though this team doesn't look like a playoff team or one of the top teams in the league so once the deadline hits I hope some more young guys get a chance to prove they belong. This winning streak makes me think they will be better than I thought they would be though.

I was thinking the same thing. The only guys left are Balazovic, Winder and Maybe Sands who could make it to MLB this year. Losing Enlow and possibly Canterino and Duran is a killer. Some of the better pitchers in low and High A ball have been hurt this year. Not sure if it that is because they have these guys throwing so hard or what the deal is but it is going to impact development.

I stated that poorly by not "wanting" what I really meant was not paying a fair price value wise to add him. It would likely take a top prospect to move him as he is a proven MLB hitter with 4 years of control left. It would take a big trade to move him and as we just discussed he has limitation's. So not certain teams will give as much as needed for the Twins to do a deal. Whereas they might for Polanco because he has more versatility.

I agree somebody has to go. Both players have lots of years of control so the FO is unlikely to trade either one but IMO Arraez has his flaws. He doesn't hit for power, He can't play Short and he doesn't run all that well. Polanco does have some power, he can play short in a pinch and he runs slightly better than average. Even Gordon has a better arm to play third and he can play center field as well as short in a pinch. It feels like Arraez is the odd man out when it comes to physical tools and versatility. Keep all three you say for depth if nothing else? The other issue is after this year the Twins need to add Lewis to the 40 man. Palacios is playing well enough at short that they likely need to add him as well and then there is Wander Javier whose bat has started to come around and shown some power so they might need to add him as well and to top it off they might need to sign a veteran SS next year as well. There isn't room on the 40 man for all of these players next year. You either need to risk losing some younger players to rule V or find a way to trade some talent. Lewis, Palacios, and Javier are all shortstops and can play all three infield positions and they all run better than Arraez and project for more power. While I don't like the idea of trading Arraez because he is one of my favorite players I think if the Twins can find the right deal they should do it. If other teams aren't interested then I would look at trading Polanco as well but would want a greater return as he can be considered a legit Shortstop.

I agree with your take on Buxton. I don't think you can get another team to pay what he is truly worth in prospects because of the injury history and uncertainty of signing him long term. He likely generates a comp pick after the 2022 season. I think if the Twins can get a reasonable deal done for Donaldson they should do it. He was supposed to be the missing piece defensively at third and be Cruz part two for HR power. It feels like he has failed at both so far and been injured more than healthy to this point. If another team want to take that on and we need to trade contracts or throw some money in I think it should be seriously looked at because I don't see him helping us they way we envisioned. I am torn on Sano. He has been better at drawing walks and he has had decent pitches to hit he just can't seem to hit them. I agree he is pretty much a black hole bat right now but also feel he could get back to that rookie year performance where his eye and contact rate were All-Star worthy. It seems like we would be selling incredibly low but given his lack of production it could be addition by subtraction. Everyone left on a one year deal if a deal can be struck then do it. If someone will take on Happs salary I would just dump him. We need the 40 man space to audition other guys.

After Baddoo got rule V'd I wouldn't bank on it. I know you are betting he is going to regress as Springfield doesn't appear to have the greatest pitching staff. However, right now he is a top 4 bat in the AA central one tiny step behind Mirnada and ahead of KC's first rounder Bobby Witt Jr. If he keeps that 900 OPS or even a high 800 OPS I have to believe lower end teams would be interested in taking a look via Rule V. I get that he isn't the biggest guy at 5' 9" but they have him listed as a Right fielder so he likely has the arm and I believe he runs well. He kind of reminds me of Dustin Pedroia a little bit not that that is a fair comp but he is small like Dustin yet plays much bigger. We will see if he comes down to earth but it is hard to stay in the 900 OPS range and with a K rate that is not bad and a walk rate that moves his OBP almost 100 points there is a lot to like if he maintains his power. If I was a rebuilding team that is a player that I would take a risk on. '

Yeah I have been surprised at how much they have been winning with the lineup they have but the pitching has been pretty good and they have taken more than their fair share of walks when needed. While I mostly agree with you that those players look flawed there are glimmers of hope for some of them. Urbina is pretty young for the level and he started out hot then slumped badly but he seems to be getting better again. he likely needs more time to adjust than the older guys. I would look for an improved second half for him. His eye and contact skills should kick in and help him out as gets used to the higher level of competition. I am not a big Sabato fan mainly because he struggles to make good contact and or contact at all. Still I have to acknowledge his eye at the plate has been good and despite that 188 BA he has a 388 OBP which is pretty darn good. With the poor BA his OPS is below 700 which again is pretty bad especially for a guy taken in the 1st round. I mean when you compare him to our 18th round pick Julien it is down right embarrassing. Holland has power but he looks like a guy who might hit 240-250 with an 800 OPS. Like Sabato he seems to have a lot of swing and miss to his game but he seems to be the prototypical hitter the Twins look for. Even with that low BA he still has a 700 OPS so there is still hope that he becomes a power hitting SS. Garry Jr. looks so good in the field and he has speed but I do question if he is seeing the ball well because he only has 13 walks anda whopping 51 K's. I don't think the eye at the plate is there yet. He is only 21 though there is time but that line is a bad sign for him right now. So yeah I agree with you things don't look good for those guys right now but that could change in the second half.

I do like Gipson-Long he can get K's when he wants it just the WHIP that needs work. He generally gives up way too much contact and even though he had fewer hits than innings pitched today he also walked three. There is potential there but he needs to be sharper more often. Nice to see Steer with a three hit, 2 walk day. Granted he didn't hit a HR but I like it when he gets on base and he scored three times as well. Gray looks like he might be out of his slump so that is good. He has hit well the last couple of games after being in a fairly long funk. The top of the order for Wichita seem to always be trying to outdo each other. Miranda won today with 3 hits 2 of them HR's but Ernie wasn't far behind with a HR and two hits. Palacios as well a HR and two hits. Some real magic at the top of the order this year. All three of those guys look ready to move up at the All Star break. Rooker continues to mash at AAA finally reaching his 900 OPS mark he likes to hang around in the minors. If he can just translate that to MLB we would have another great right handed HR bat. There are bats to like this year. Hopefully these guys stay healthy.

Man Julien is on fire. I can't remember a Twins prospect that had a 500 OBP through half the season. I think Ben Revere was close to batting 400 one half of a year but he rarely walked so his OBP never approached 500. The difficulty to get on Base every other at bat is so hard there is very little margin for error. If he keeps this up TD needs to do a serious piece on him. Happy to see Barnes have a really good outing after blowing up last time out. I still have my doubts but he sure pitched well allowing no hits through 5 innings. All the Lefties we have look like 5th starter types Thorpe, Smeltzer and Barnes. Barnes might have the best chance to make it, but when his stuff is off he is awful. Anyway if he keeps this up through the Trade deadline I bet they add him to the 40 man. Rooker continues to chug toward his typical 900 OPS in AAA. He just needs to find a way to carry that over to MLB play. He is the only big bat at AAA right now as well. Little known Ernie De La Trinidad has taken the BA and OPS lead at AA. He is now hitting better than Miranda. I know he and Contreras were neck and neck until Contreras got moved to AAA but the Twins are going to have some tough 40 man decisions or they might lose some guys to rule V again. Contreras is a plus defender whose bat is coming around and Ernie has good speed, a good bat and has been showing more power this year as well. Couple that with the outfield jam we already have and it will be hard to keep everyone around.

I am on the precipice but leaning your direction. If they could get two very solid prospects back one being an elite pitcher in return for Berrios that works out they save that 18 to 20 mil per year and they give their young pitching staff time to develop in 2022. We are making some dangerous assumptions that our young pitchers ARE going to work out. I agree with you that there are so many holes in the pitching staff it seems hard to believe they could cover them all even if they hang onto Jose. It is a gamble but rebuilds always are. The main thing is they have to get the right players back in return to make it all work. They have to find a team willing to give up a lot of prospect capital to make it worth it and I don't think it is going to be as easy as we think but who knows? I do agree that the young pitching is behind the young hitting making this second wave rebuild out of sync. resetting it by trading for younger hitters and pitchers to come up together could help even that out. If they can and or do trade away a good portion of the team at the deadline it should give the pitchers the development time they need to learn what they need to do to be successful and then we can see where things are at and try to fill in some hole via FA. The whole plan though hinges on the young pitching working out. If it doesn't a short rebuild becomes a long one.

If they cannot extend Berrios I think it will be hard for them to compete in 2022. With Berrios and Maeda at the top and Ober hopefully a 5th starter option they just have to add one Good free agent pitcher and possibly a vet on a one year deal or some combination of Duran, Balazovich, Winder or Sands for the 4th spot. If the pitching gets better next year and the pen resolves itself this team can compete next year. Without Berrios you have to essentially fill two top spots with longer FA contracts on older pitchers which I don't see the Twins doing or you have to rely more on the young pitching coming up. Given we haven't developed a starter since Berrios and it took him a year or two to adjust to MLB I think losing him makes competing in 2022 tougher. To me this whole team and or build process they are in is dependent on 2 of 6 arms (Duran, Balazovich, Winder, Sands, Canterino and Enlow) working out. By working out I mean mid rotation starters not 5th. They also need to find better pen arms although they cannot do worse than Colome so likely no place to go but up there. If the young pitching establishes it self I think this team is good to go. Unless a team just offers something to good to pass up then I think they should extend Berrios to give them a solid pitcher to build around. A guy who can take his turn every week and keep the team in games. I think the FO won't want to go into 2022 without Berrios because they cannot afford another year like this one. We will see what happens around the deadline.

Man Julien's OBP is at 485 almost two months into the season. I guess they are leaving him at A ball to get All-Star honors which he deserves. Another HR for him last night as well. He keeps taking good at bats even though it seems pitchers prefer to work around him. Javier keeps hitting and was 2 for 3 last night. If he gets his OPS up to 800 after his horrible start that will be saying something. Hitter of the night though was Smith who went 5 for 5. Man that is so hard to do. Smith is old for the level and doesn't walk much so has his work cut out for him but if he keeps that up he will be moving up. Miranda leading the charge for the Surge and staying in the 900 OPS club, De La Trinidad dropped out of the 900 OPS club. Pretty good night for most of the bats they just didn't quite score enough runs. I like Schulfer but I still feel he is a much better reliever than starter. Granted with so many guys hurt right now he isn't in anyone's way but I think his stuff plays better as a reliever.

If he will do do it for 5/80 I am on board especially given what they got out of Happ and Shoemaker for 10m this year. He is young durable and with slight improvement a potential All-Star type player or just under for the next four years. He takes good care of his body and takes the ball every 5th day. Why not do what you can to keep him especially with good pitching in short supply. With Maeda messed up he might be the one decent pitcher we can rely on next year and hopefully once the other guys come up we can fill out that rotation with more home grown guys. Unless the ask is absolutely unreasonable they should extend him IMO.

I am with Mike on this one. Hate to get rid of Garver just yet as it feels a little too early to me. I think that maybe they swap Gordon with Astudillo for next year. They shouldn't need him with Garver, Jeffers and Rortvedt on the 40 man. Astudillo isn't a plus defender anywhere and Gordon could be at 2nd and he can backup all three infield positions in a pinch plus possibly center field. I was hoping Astudillo might build some value by the deadline but his lack of walks, K rate and OPS make it tough right now. Hopefully he gets hot with the bat and maybe they can still get something of value for him at the deadline. His position flexibility and high contact rate could be appealing to a team down the stretch but his numbers need to get better. Astudillo is the odd man out for me. You have this very well thought out and I do agree with you that Jeffers and Garver are redundant at catcher. I also agree something will have to be done at some point. I am just not sure that now is the right time to make that move. Maybe if Jeffers proves his bat is for real and Rortvedt remains solid but I think it leaves us a little thin then.

I tend to agree with you. For me as a person I would value that the team cares more about my long term health than a win. He knew he did his job and contributed to the win. An official "W" stat doesn't change that. He pitched well and I am fairly certain that is all he cares about. He pulled his weight, he did his job, He controlled what he could control. Would he have been fine going out for the 5th? I imagine he would have been, but as you said earlier in the thread I have to believe there is a plan in place for how much he gets used this year and he is aware of it. He has broken down every year of his career so no reason to be a hero in a spot where it isn't required. Once he and the team feel comfortable with him going longer I am sure there will be plenty of W's in his future. For now though I imagine he is happy to be doing well at the MLB level.

On the surface you look at his numbers in 18 and 19 and there are some troubling signs. Low average, not a great walk rate and a really poor slugging %. So what makes teams interested in a player like that? Just hoping for a rebound? They look at the decent K rate at 20% and low BABIP and say this is a player with a chance to bounce back? Just curious because he had a couple of rough back to back years and this year his slugging improved from 300 to 500 which is quite a jump. His BABIP is high right now but with the extra pop in the bat and ability to make contact not a huge concern. Do teams really see bounce backs like this coming or a solid filler guy for the minors to round out their system?

Thanks for reminding me about that. Ober has been a really good pitcher throughout his minors career but I don't believe he has had an injury free season to date. So probably best to take it slow and make sure to manage the arm and soreness he experiences. To date he has been made of glass. I agree they will only let him go so many innings this year since he has never topped 80 innings in a year yet. So pitch count will likely rule the day this year for him. I know he has complained in the past how his body feels after pitching so I would guess this all part of a strategy to see how far they dare push him without breaking him. FWIW I was mad they didn't pitch him this spring but I guess the reason they didn't was to save the arm for the season. I hope he continues to pitch well while out there. his run free innings have been valuable.