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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I followed him last year and came away impressed especially because of his age. When they dominate at a young age in any league that typically bodes well. DSL, GCL and E-town stats don't tell us too much because the competition is so variable. Even A ball numbers can be deceiving but guys that consistently perform well in those league still tend to do well as they move up especially when they are young for the level. I am excited about Escobar as well. Just someone to keep an eye on. He is too young to know if he turns out or not but he sure looks good right now. If he continues to dominate I think he will be a fast mover.
  2. Dman
    I thought the same thing I am not completely sure on the fielding metric. In the write up they mention him as an outfielder and he is listed as outfielder\1st base. I agree it is hard to say what position they are referencing. The run grade is similar though and that is typically an important part of outfield defense getting to balls and or cutting them off to prevent extra base hits. Arm is also important for outfield assists\throwing runners out and Raley's arm grades out above both Max and Rosie. So like I said if you believe in these numbers then Raley should be comparable and in some ways better than both Rosario and Kepler in the outfield. Granted bigger guys tend to get slower faster as they age. The reference to Robbie being noted he is no spring chicken anymore at 29 and his speed obviously declined since he was a prospect so again hard to say how Raley's speed will hold up but given the fairly recent scouting reports on MLB.com they don't see him as a liability in right or left field at this time. OK now I see what you mean. I don't know that is a very good question though. Center field defense is a lot different than the corners but I think run grades are just run grades regardless of position. Fielding grades might be different for center though as your running and throwing ability factor in more to your fielding grade for center I would think.
  3. Dman
    I like that the Twins are typically always in on at least one of the top ranked guys but they also have done pretty well with no name guys as well. Here's hoping we grab some good ones this year.
  4. Dman
    Don't know what to think about Blankenhorn. Is this his breakout season? Is this who he is for real now or is there regression on the way? Given his past trouble with contact I am still a little skeptical. I really love what he has done this year. He is becoming what we all thought he could become which is a solid defensive infielder and power bat that can hit for average as well. I really like his athleticism and if the bat is for real he looks good at 2nd or 3rd in MLB to me. I think this is a decent spot for him. I might have him a little lower mainly because last year he was so bad at the plate that I question if he will adjust to AAA or MLB pitching but he could just as easily climb higher if he keeps this up. Urbina has a nice set of tools too early to tell what his hit tool will be like just yet but that will make or break him. Somewhat disappointed with Alcala. He started the season almost unhittable and quickly started regressing. I think we have enough guys that are ready to start at AA and they should put Alcala in the pen as we really could use a guy or two that throw close to triple digits in our MLB pen and he is someone that can do that. I like where he is on the list. If he becomes dominant then he moves up if not then likely starts moving down. Still pretty excited about Baddoo but with him having a lost season this spot seems fair to me. Will have to wait for next year to decide where he really belongs. He has had contact issues in the past so still a ways to go but the fact he could be a power hitting center fielder with a good eye at the plate is pretty darn exciting to me. I am less bullish on Ben than most. He has come a long way with his hit tool but I am still a little skeptical it will be good enough. He is still pretty young yet especially for a catcher. I think given where he is at right now this is a pretty good ranking. If you believe he becomes and is becoming an above average hitter then this is a little low for him.
  5. Dman
    I was also wondering about the Canadian HS pitcher Antoine Jean or were they able to sign him already?
  6. Dman
    I read that Holland signed for above slot at $575,000. Can anyone confirm?
  7. Dman
    Man it was nice to see the bats come alive again. It feels like it has been a long time since we have hit like that. I was surprised Snell threw so many fastballs to such a good fastball hitting team. Seemed like his slider was effective I would have thought he would throw it more. Anyway glad got some hits and home runs. Was also nice to see two relievers come in and not struggle to get out of their inning. Can't believe Cleveland lost. I had them penciled in winning another over the Royals then I look back and they lost. Couldn't believe it. That rarely happens especially to them. At any rate it was nice to get a game back and keep that lead around 8. We will need to find allot of wins the next three series to keep from being reeled in.
  8. Dman
    Pretty much agree with this list the only change I would make is to have Gonsalves lower. He is 24 now and his WHIP is crazy high for how long he has been pitching. I felt like he really needed to bring it this year to re-establish his prospect ranking. Being hurt it is hard to say where to put him so I am fine with where he is but in my mind he is trending down until he can change perception with performance. Severino is a young exciting hitter but with such limited time in the minors it is hard to say just how good he is right now. He is young with a high ceiling so I think this is a good spot for him right now. Have been a fan of Colina for a while now. After last summer I thought he might reach the teens but being injured early and not showing quite the same dominance just yet I like where he is on the list. He has the stuff to make it as a starter but Iike him as a power reliever as well. Don't know what to think about Littell anymore. He has good movement on his pitches but still seems to give up more than his fair share of hits and runs. I expected a bit more dominance from him in AAA this year. So far he has looked pretty good out of the pen. He is someone I had hoped would be higher on the list but again I think this a decent spot for him right now.
  9. Dman
    Looking back the MLB archives we get the following scouting grades from MLB.com Luke Raley 2019 Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 45 Eddie Rosario 2014 Hit: 60 | Power: 40 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 45 | Overall: 50 Max Kepler 2014 Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45 So from a defensive perspective they appear to rate Raley as having a better arm and the better overall fielder with a run grade the same as Max and Rosie. So I don't think it is out the relm to think that Raley should be a good defender in the outfield at least if we take any stock in these grades at all.
  10. Dman
    If that is the case then I like Rooker better. But if what you say is true then why does the MLB site say this about Rooker: "The big question surrounding Rooker is where he might play defensively. He saw time at first and left field in 2018, and the plan is to give him a consistent time split at both. He's below-average in both spots, with the hope that he can become adequate enough at one so he's not a DH at a very young age." And this about Raley: "Raley has played first base and both outfield corners and has shown an ability to play both well. He's athletic enough to fill in as a center fielder in a pinch as well, which bodes well for him to start his career as a left-handed bat off the bench. He could hit his way into a more regular role in the future." Fangraphs is pretty much the same. With higher grades on speed, arm and Fielding. Based on what I have read Rooker is a below average defender pretty much everywhere while Raley is not. While Raley may be no Kepler or Rosario he certainly is no Willingham or Rooker in the field either. I get it we like both players I just don't see why there would\should be that a large of a difference between the two as their strengths and weakness's seem to even things out IMO.
  11. Dman
    I guess I am struggling with your view of ceiling. Does it not include defense? I mean would you rather have Josh Willingham (Rooker) in left field or Rosario (Raley) in left? I think defense matters and plays into ceiling a fair bit. Granted very good to great hitters can be hidden at 1st, and DH and Left field if so desired but you are going to lose runs with poor defensive players think of the Tigers Nick Castelanos. Sure offensively Rooker has some things going for him right now. I like that the K rate is down a bit and the walks are up that is a good thing, but is it impossible for Raley to do the same? Is it impossible for Raley to improve? These guys are 25 how much ceiling is left? They have been comparable offensively until Raley got hurt. Do you really think Rooker will be a 300 hitter with a 30- 40%% K rate in MLB? To me that is about the only ceiling that would really separate him from Raley. They both seem like 270 mashers with high K rates and hopefully decent walk rates. Maybe Rooker can separate himself but he is going to need to continue to improve quite a bit from where he is now to get to the ceiling you imagine IMO.
  12. Dman
    While I agree despite the current stats I like Rooker better as a hitter long term but to say Raley is nowhere near the same class belies the current statistical data we have on both players. Raleys OPS was better than Rookers last year and they both hit 20 home runs. Raley had hit 7 home runs and had a 300 average before Rooker was even close to getting hot this year, Is that really not in the same class? It sure seems like they have been pretty close offensively so far and Raley is the superior defender. Maybe that will all change. Maybe Raley goes back to the 270 hitter he has been and Rooker moves into the 300 range with power and you get your future separation but I wouldn't hang my hat on that especially with Rookers K issues. Personally I like both bats but like Raleys defense better. Doesn't matter to me that Rooker can hit a 500 foot HR and Raley a 400 foot one. They both count the same.
  13. Dman
    I really like your Raley, Kepler comparison. I hadn't thought about that before and if that holds up what a find Raley is. It is super hard to find right fielders with Keplers speed, plate discipline and power and having Raley who is close to that is nice to have in the system. I also think it proves Raley is more valuable than a player like Rooker. Rookers hit tool would have to be elite as in one of he best in MLB to overcome his lack of defensive ability\ flexiblity compared to Raley. Raleys sklll set is much harder to find than a power hitting 1st baseman\DH. I know right now Rooker is on a hot streak and I still like him as a prospect I just think being so limited to just the bat diminishes how high he should be on a prospect list and or that Raley deserves a bit more love than he is getting.
  14. Dman
    Man that is a lot of good talent at the bottom of the top 30. I am going to quibble with a couple of picks in this range though. First is Smeltzer. I essentially compare him to Gonsalves they both were dominant in AA and AAA. Neither one has elite stuff but they both have a good pitch mix. Smeltzer has better control, performed better on the MLB stage and is essentially two years younger than Stephen. At this point why wouldn't he be ranked higher? What does Gonsalves have that Smeltzer doesn't. It feels like there might be some sort of player bias happening there? The narrative doesn't fit for me. Second is Raley. He is Rooker with good speed and position flexibilty. Why would Raley be ranked lower? They are both the same age. Rooker does have some monster power but his lack of defensive ability makes him a potential liability in the field. When measuring a prospect Defense is almost as important as offense and certainly a separator when comparing players. Raley K's less, walks more with almost as much power. Feels like the ratings are opposite of what they should be. Is this Draft position bias at play? Given what I know I don't see Rooker as the better player even despite his recent hot streak with the bat as he will never be as good in the field as Raley. I am happy to see Celestino further down the list as he seems a light hitting Center fielder with a decent eye at the plate. Unfortunately that could make him a fourth outfielder if he doesn't find more extra base pop. Granted he is only 20 with time to grow into the man muscle. Time will tell but right now given what we know he belongs down here. I might even have him slightly lower. I never was big fan of Diaz because it was an all bat pick and I really didn't think he would produce. He is proving me wrong on a daily basis these days. His 13 HR's in half a season at High A is very impressive. This guy could be Rooker part 2 with a better eye at the plate. I don't know much about his defense but don't believe it is great so I think he is good where he is. If he continues to hit for power and average on his way up then he will need to move up this list. That's my two cents. I just appreciate you guys putting these lists out as it is fun to follow these players.
  15. Dman
    Yeah I think that makes sense. If he can lose some of that swing and miss and gain some average and OBP then he can go much higher next year. He has the power tool just needs to convince scouts he has a better hit tool\eye at the plate. Good for him but no high risk steal for the Twins.
  16. Dman
    Thanks for bringing my rational side back. The emotional side of me misses the team that was flaming hot the first two months of the season. Yep lots of top teams are going through slumps. The Astros lost five in a row, I think the Brewers did as well, The Yankees and Rays have gone through tough stretches. It happens to every team. It is just hard to see the competition get hot. Cleveland just always seems to find good pitchers. Even with their pitching injuries their young guys have just stepped right in and hardly missed a beat. Their offense after that horrible start is putting up runs at a good clip too. Right now they look better than our team IMO. Also the Indians schedule is pretty easy until August when they start facing tougher competition again. It sure feels like we are going to be reeled in. Probably a battle to the end of the season this year unless we totally collapse.
  17. Dman
    Man KC always plays us tough. Am I the only one who thought after they tied it in the 8th inning that we were going to lose this one? It kind of feels like teams have adjusted to the Twins aggressive style. I don't see many down the middle fastball strikes early in the count anymore. Maybe it is time to dial the aggressiveness back and start working counts. I know we have been surviving recently but not really thriving. I guess several guys are dinged up but it feels like we are going to have play better than this to hang on to our lead and do well in the playoffs.
  18. Dman
    Pitching hasn't been as good and the whole lineup is pretty much slumping. If Cleveland wasn't playing so well I wouldn't care but would hate to this team reeled in by the All Star break. That being said I believe Houston has lost 4 in a row. The Yankee's have had tough stretches this year. Every team, even good teams go through these. Just hoping we can pull out of it sooner rather than later. The Royals always seem to give us problems. Here's hoping we can break out.
  19. Dman
    Hard to believe some of these guys are this far down but there are a lot of good players in the system so it can be a tough call. Most of these players are older so I guess it makes sense to keep them just out of the top 30 as most of their potential has been used up. They are who they are now. Sad to see Wade this low on the list but with his having issues with solid contact and low OPS he is probably lucky to be as high up as he is. I really believed he would be close to a 300 hitter with at least extra base power. So far AAA has owned him somewhat. I am starting to be a believer in Sands. Feels like there is still some work to be done there but his WHIP is real nice and that bodes well for his future. It means he is willing to attack and batters have trouble hitting his stuff. He should easily make it as a reliever have to see about starter but so far so good for him. I would have him a little higher than this but with his short track record this spot seems fine as well. Not much disagreement on the list so far. Nice to see this level of talent this far down the list.
  20. Dman
    I have been keeping my eye on Rooker and he has come back from a cold start to the season. Very happy he is doing so well. Was starting to wonder if he was going to be a bust there for a while. Still need to work on those K's but the average and OPS are outstanding right now. Still he will need to do more to make the transition to MLB. Lewis is starting to show signs of life and some pop in the bat as well. Hopefully whatever adjustments he has made continue to work out well. Blankenhorn continues to hit. I was sort of waiting for him to fall back some but he has been pretty consistent so far this year. It is getting to the fun time of year where we can recognize the great seasons some of the players in the system are having.
  21. Dman
    I guess because last year Larnach took a 500 to 600K discount to sign. Granted he was picked higher but still that is quite a discount. Most Draft experts had Wallner going around pick 60 and we took him at 39. The difference is about 800K You would like to think a savvy negotiater would be able to meet in the middle at say 400K. Granted I don't have much inside info. Maybe there were teams that were going to or would have taken him higher than 60 so the negotiating point is different. He just seemed, given the low score on his bat as someone who would\should give a discount given where he was projected to go.
  22. Dman
    Yeah I am wondering what number they need to get Holland. It must be fairly high as teams let him go by after the 2nd round so he must have expected at least 2nd round money. Lot's of miss in that swing right now and it takes a good one to make it to MLB. Hoping 500 to 600K gets it done. Not sure if they can lure Julien away or not. They probably need at least 500K maybe more because he doesn't have much to lose going back and trying to get better. With a little improvement he should be able to make it in 2nd or third round. If he really improves he could go in the first round. If he stays the same then he likely falls a long ways again. I don't think the Twins will get him but I hope they do.
  23. Dman
    My bad I missed that.
  24. Dman
    Yeah looking at the replay I couldn't see the line clearly either. Almost impossible to call it when it is that close and the line that hard to see. At any rate it appears to me looking at the video that umps made the right call. Honestly I don't know how they can keep track of everything they have to do behind the plate.
  25. Dman
    Yeah he really made himself out to be an idiot there. At least he acknowledged he made a mistake and apologized. I agree he should not have come after the umps like that but he paid the price of looking like a crazy man for all to see. Long game lots of ups and downs emotions get out of control. Both teams really wanted that game and only one team could win. I get it but there were lots of bad calls that could have determined that game so to get that upset over just one of them seems odd or maybe it was the straw that broke the camels back. Whatever the case he made himself look the fool for nothing.
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