Dman

Thanks for this article! My gut just doesn't think Bumgarner will be worth the money he will be getting. At this point I don't think there is a way to get value out of a Bumgarner signing. I like him but if it takes 20M a year AAV for 4 or 5 years I don't see him living up to that. Maybe I am wrong and he will rebound and be great the next couple of years but something tells me he more likely is who he is at this point than who he was before. If he is who he is then our number 5 starters are almost as good.

I am not sure if they have that in mind or not but I do agree that they most likely want to rely on the farm to supply pitching. Falvey will follow the Cleveland blueprint of developing pitching as much as possible. IMO for smaller market teams to be really successful they need to develop at least one top of the rotation starter from their farm system and likely another good mid tier starter. Having top of the line low cost pitching allows the team to spend elsewhere or extend valuable young players to remain competitive. The Twins did this and dominated the division when they had Santana. KC did it when they had Yordano Ventura. Oakland and Tampa do a good job of this as has Cleveland and they are pretty successful small market teams year in and year out. I think the Twins will follow that trend. Granted that doesn't mean the Twins can't take a chance on a good FA starter especially with their window wide open but I can also see where they still might look for the farm to deliver if the money and years for a FA don't make sense to them.

Yeah I agree with you. I think they need two veteran starters since Pineda has that suspension and we will want veteran depth anyway. They have the money to sign one of the better tier two starters and then take a risk on some bounce back pitcher for the rotation or pen or both. They have about 30M to spend tops in my mind and they might want to try and extend some guys so they will want some room to maneuver is my guess. Also we have to remember they will be looking not just at what this years payroll is but how it will affect future years and with big FA money expenditures you want the years and price right because a mistake will hamstring payroll flexibility for the team in the future. I don't love Bumgarner for some reason just a gut feeling I guess but it would be nice to have a left hander that can get decent results. I just question how much he has left in the tank so would be nice to only have to go 4 years but that might not get it done. I don't like Ryu either but if he can be had for three years or less he seems worth the risk. I don't see us getting Cole as this is not his preferred destination and he makes the budget tight for the forseeable future. I think Strass Stays with the Nats and I think Nats let Rendon go to the Dodgers unless some other team steps up big time. Keuchel would make us better but I don't see him as top of the rotation starter but more mid level. I honestly don't know what they will do. They have the money to get whoever they want. I guess it just depends on if that player wants to come to Minnesota and if the Twins feel like the terms of the deal fit the needs for the team now and in the future. Here's hoping we find a good match.

I wasn't initially a fan of this signing because of his K issues but his K rate is closer to 30% versus right handers so I can live with that especially with his excellent walk rate. Alex looks like a solid platoon mate with Garver and it sounds like his defense has improved as well. Solid pickup for the Bomba squad.

Have to say I am relieved that we added another solid pitcher to the rotation and at a very fair price point to boot. Given the prices the second tier was receiving I was getting worried we might get aced out on the third tier as well. I was hoping they could get a two year deal and they managed to get it done. Since it was only a two year deal I thought it would cost more but 10M per year for a guy who was our top pitcher at the end of the year seems like a good get to me. This team should be a good fit for Pineda as well. Rocco will make sure he gets the rest he needs and the club house is good as well. I'd say he did well to stay in Minnesota.

I think Odo misread the market as he could have gotten 20 Mil pr year for at least 3 years if not more in this market. He must think he can command even more next year. Glad the Twins have at least one pitcher. Looks like all these guys will be over pays this year. I hope we get one and it is the right one.

Personally I don't see the Twins paying for the available 3rd basemen out there so I think Sano stays at 3rd this year. I think Garver does get rotated to 1st base some but is good in the catcher spot and will need days off so likely not a primary 1st baseman candidate. Gonzales doesn't really have the power or OPS you would like out of that spot so while he can play there I don't think that is an optimal use of the position. Depending on how you feel about his K rate Raley seems like the most likely player to get an opportunity at 1st base to me. He is already on the 40 man he can play 1st and rotate out and play the outfield as well. Is his K rate too high to give him a try? I don't know the answer to that but I think he could be a good option there. Kirilloff makes better contact but he is not on the 40 man and he needs to prove he can handle AA pitching better as well as AAA IMO. If he is hot to start the year he could land there. He has that sweet swing and can play the outfield as well. I think 1st base would be a good long term home for him but it feels a little too early to put him there this year to me. If Rooker can prove he can K less and walk more then his light tower power would play at 1st base as well. I know there are questions about his defense at 1st base but he is your typical 1st base DH type of hitter. He is not on the 40 man though and he needs to get that K rate down to get his shot. I don't think he would be an early option for 1st base for the Twins. Looking at these options the reality is they may need to find someone from outside to fill that spot. I guess it depends on how you feel about the internal options.

I think those were both good moves. Cron will likely have issues getting back to where he was and the Twins have options for 1st base as it is and potentially freeing up that money hopefully helps us get some pitching. Hildenberger just hasn't been good enough to take up a forty man spot for a team that is looking to compete for the playoffs and beyond. Gives the FO lots of options to make the roster better. Hopefully they take advantage of the opportunity.

I kind of hope someone takes Wiel, He is getting older and is completely blocked in our system. Would be nice for him to get a chance on a team with nothing to lose. I think he could be a good bench bat. Hard to say how he will adjust to MLB pitching but I think he has a good chance to be successful. Not worried about losing Jax as we have enough #5 starters in the system with Dobnack, Poppen, Smeltzer and Thorpe and I think they all currently have better stuff than Jax does. Also other younger pitchers will likely pass him as well in Graterol, Duran, Balazovic, Colina, and maybe even Sands and Vallimont. Don't get me wrong I like Jax but we can certainly live without him as well. Never cared for Clays control or command but he is a lefty and we could use some good lefty reliever in the system. He could get taken but I don't trust him to do well in MLB just yet as control becomes very important when facing elite competition. I thought they would protect Rijo and I bet it was a tough call but I can understand it is tough to start that option clock so soon given he is likely two to three years away. I guess they are hoping other teams see it the same way. Given what I have seen he doesn't look ready for MLB, but a team not competing could grab him anyway.

I hope they bring him back and I would try for a two year deal. The further he got from the surgery the better he was pitching. If he ends up our 5th starter I think we are in good shape heading into 2020. I am a little surprised they haven't signed him already.

If the Twins truly do spend all the extra money on pitching then I am fine if they let him go. If they end up in the second or third tier for pitchers and don't spend then Cron insurance would be nice. If they do try and shore up third base then I would be fine letting Cron go as well. For me it just depends on what they do before I would want them to just let him walk.

Raley is the only one currently on the 40 man so unless he is traded or starts the year off poorly he will be the first one called up. He has good range in the outfield and average to above average power. He looks like he has the tools to make it but he needs to work on his K rate and up his walk rate if he wants that outfield job for the Twins. The next guy up I think is Larnach as he has good all around hit tools. Good eye at the plate, as his K rate has been really good except in AA and his OBP is very good as well. Has OK power to this point and just seems to have a solid approach all the way around. Next would be Kirillof for me. He has a sweet swing and when on I would place him ahead of Larnach but he doesn't walk much and that can hurt you at the MLB level. If he showed more patience I would put him ahead of Larnach. Last is Rooker but only because this is for an outfield position. If it was for 1st base then I would give Rooker the nod for that position. He has the power to profile there and he should be athletic enough to play 1st base and DH some. That is the order I think they would be chosen to come up but if one of those guys gets hot and the others go cold that could easily change.

I was totally onboard with the Twins making trades in 2018. It wasn’t going to make sense to extend Dozier after the season he had and getting two decent players in Smeltzer and Raley seemed about as good as you could do given his production that year. Lance Lynn wasn’t going to help us and again wasn’t having a great statistical year so getting a look at Tyler Austin and getting Luis Rijo seemed like a better deal than getting nothing. The Zach Duke trade ended up netting us Chase De Jong and Ryan Costello and neither player worked out but Duke was gone at the end of end of the season anyway. Duke was having an OK year and I thought we might be able to do a bit better than what we got but in the end that trade did not move the needle. Getting anything for Rodney especially a high K relief pitcher seemed like a steal IMO. Chalmers still has control problems but the potential is there. I couldn’t take Rodney and all his walks any more. I really liked Escobar but was afraid we might not get him to sign at the end of the year and if he did really want to play for the Twins then I felt we could try and sign him in the offseason anyway. That didn’t work out but we did get a possible mid rotation starter and a potential 4th outfielder for giving up the last few months of his production in a year we were going nowhere anyway and since he didn’t sign with us in the end at least we got something instead of nothing. The Pressly trade was always controversial but I still felt like it was on OK deal. Looking back they really should have pressed for a top 100 prospect in that deal but I think Alcala can still be a middle reliever and Celestino’s floor is a 4th outfielder with great defense. He did manage to hit 10 home runs this year so he might grow into some more power which would give him starter potential. Not a bad haul but given what Houston got it should have been better IMO. While Pressly was controlled for another year he couldn’t help the Twins in 2018 and even though he could have helped us in 2019 we still won the division without him and he wasn’t going to single handedly help us win playoff games. He also was injured so wasn’t available all of 2019 either. The question for me is if the Twins had kept him could they have extended him or would he still have wanted to play closer to his family in Houston? If he was gone anyway I prefer having the prospects if he would have signed I would rather still have him. Do these trades mean this FO is savvy or good at trading? I don’t think we can determine that at least not yet. As others have said they haven’t netted any top 100 prospects in any trades and have given up some prospects with little to show for it at the MLB level. I am happy they made the trades in 2018 as they might have gotten nothing and I am glad many of those players appear worthy of being on the 40 man but until they pan out it is hard to say they moved the needle for the MLB club.

Isn't it a little bit dangerous to leave a guy like that unprotected then? He might be able to hold down a bullpen spot for the year at the MLB level and then they could work him back as a starter. He is young enough and talented enough it looks like. Granted his K 9 isn't that great for his level but it isn't bad either.

He might not be the same pitcher after surgery and he wasn't a sure thing to make it to MLB even after his great 2018. He would be a big gamble for a team to take when they can probably find other pitchers not recovering from injury (less risk). Personally I think he bounces back but hard to say how long it will take.

Totally agree with you. They can't keep that many 4th outfielders on the 40 man as they are likely going to need more room for pitching and another catcher. While l like Lamonte's eye at the plate he doesn't seem to have much power. I think he is the guy to try and trade. I guess we will see what happens but it doesn't make sense to carry all of them especially with Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach not that far away.

While I like Jax he seems to be 5th starter material and with K's being low and other guys that look like they might have higher ceilings not far behind him I can see the Twins taking the risk. It wasn't that long ago that a lot of this board berated the previous FO for hanging onto pitch to contact guys versus stirke out pitchers so I am not gonna complain too much about this one. That being said I feel like his stuff might play up in the pen and he has good control so he could be targeted by a rebuilding team. A little more concerned about Rio. He has some really good secondaries but doesn't seem to have the velocity yet. Pretty young too and likely not able to help a MLB team at all. So hoping he gets passed by. Also wondering about Moran. His WHIP is high so hopefully other teams leave him alone. Wells is a wild card at this point since he is coming off of injury so guessing team will pass on him as well. Only real surprise for me is Celestino. He must be better than I realized. Maybe his defense is just too good to risk losing him to a team using him as 4th outfielder this year. I don't think his bat will play in MLB yet.

I agree I think 5 players is the max and I bet they really would like to only add 3 or 4. IMO they could stand to lose the position players as position players have been taken less frequently than pitchers in past rule V drafts. So if they want to gamble i think that is where they gamble. I think they add Duran, Jax and Blakenhorn. Technically they can probably afford to lose Raley as they have Cave and Wade with Rooker, Larnach and Kirilloff probably ready fairly soon anyway. They might want to protect Rio but he is a ways a way. Tough call there for me. I guess we will find out tomorrow.

While I like Generics sometimes there is just more comfort in going with the name brand. I mean I took generic Advil once and ended up having an allergic reaction so it seems like there can be less risk going with the name brand sometimes. That being said if you have a budget you can get more value for the money going generic and I like your plan for the most part. As noted in my intro I am concerned about injury risk for Ryu. I get that even the most injury free pitcher can get injured at any time but one with a pretty established injury history does give me pause because he can't help the team if he can't pitch. Granted Rocco seems to be in tune with getting players rest when they need it but all I am saying is getting a cheaper guy that might not make it the whole season isn't a good deal unless he plays the whole season. I also am not a huge Boyd fan but then again I am not a great judge of pitching talent but his price is likely to be high and he might end up as 4th or 5th starter which we have plenty of. If he is the real deal then the trade makes sense I just am not sure what kind of pitcher Boyd will end up being. Everything else looks good to me and I am not opposed to your plan I am just a bit more risk averse and possibly less informed than you are.

Agreed. I think given his offensive and defensive numbers plus the contract should net top of the rotation pitching IMO. You will have to give up a fair amount of Defensive value in right field with Kirillof, Rooker and Larnach. They all seem better suited to left or 1st base if you ask me. Larnach and Kirillof were projected as possible right fielders as I believe they have the arm to play there but the dropoff defensively from Kepler seems substantial IMO. In left there wouldn't be as much of a dropoff and possibly an improvement.

It doesn't make a ton of sense to trade Kepler to me. He is on a team friendly contract, has a better OBP and OPS than Rosario, and he is a top of the line defender in right field. It would take a Chris Sale type pitcher and then some to pry him a way IMO. The other thing is we don't really have a great replacement for what Kepler does. I mean you could throw Cave over there but long term I am not sure we have a good replacement for Kepler in the system. At least not from a defensive standpoint. He is also a nice backup for Buxton as he graded pretty well in center when he played there. I guess if the right deal came along he could be traded but it would have to be for some very good assets IMO.

Way too young to be gone already. Just doesn't seem possible to die of natural causes at 23. RIP Ryan.

I think it has to do with his ability to be aggressive in big moments and make something happen, whether that be running through a stop sign to score, Making an incredible throw to home that won a game, or coming up with big home runs. A risk taker by nature Rosario is not afraid to fail, in fact he is prone to be even more aggressive when something needs to happen. That being said it also backfires on him as well. Running through stop signs to create outs, missing the cut off man allowing runners to move up, and striking out by swinging at balls out of the zone in big moments when getting on base via walk would have helped hurt the team as well. I guess it depends on what you want to see. The player that is clutch in some situations or the player who produces more outs than he should. The aggregate when added up though points to the WAR he received and thus his perceived value by the important decision makers in baseball (GM's). If he can change a couple of things I still think he could be an all star caliber player but he just wants to swing and his defense isn't exactly elite so if he stays who he is I think we can find better options for that spot. I still think the Twins keep him this coming year, but if wants to stay beyond that his OBP has to change and his defense needs to improve. There are three or four guys in our system that could be ready to take that spot if he doesn't improve.

I am happy we have another pitcher in the stable. Just need at least two more really good arms. Kind of hoping they can bring back Pineda and then get a top guy in free agency. Need two more solid arms to be able to compete would be nice if one was as a top of the rotation starter.

MIke I see this the same way. This isn't about bashing Eddie it is simply logical numbers based decision making. I love Rosario as much as the next guy but when looking at our farm system and payroll Eddie looks like the most likely to go at this point. Don't get me wrong I am pretty sure the Twins are keeping Rosario this year as they need the proven outfield depth so unless some team wants to overpay he will be around next year. Look the guy was almost an All Star in the first half but teams made changes just before the break and they seemed effective. They played Eddie to his pull side on defense and they kept pitching him low and away out of the zone and after two strikes they threw him junk and he swung at almost anything with two strikes. Granted he was also injured and that affected him as well but he needs to better understand when to swing and when not to swing if he ever wants to be that All Star player he wants to become. Given what I have seen I don't think he can change and if he can't then he is replaceable IMO.