Dman

Sure I get what you are saying. If he plays well or well enough to be a star payer his arb awards will be large enough to make up some of the money he would have gained being a FA a year earlier but I doubt his arb awards and arb awards in general work out better money wise than being on the market as a free agent and that is what he lost by not being able to play at the end of season. Was his play great to start the season I would say no. Did he deserve another shot after being healthy and playing better at AAA I think so. Does he need to be accountable for what happened absolutely and I haven't heard him say anything to make me think he hasn't accepted responsibility for the way his season went. The only question he had was why after he was healthy he wasn't called up and the FO seemed pretty quiet on that front. It is impossible to know how he will do in the future but if you believe he finally hits just a little and he is already "the" or at least "a" premier defensive center fielder in all of baseball then the odds of him generating a large deal seem pretty good to me. If that were to happen I don't think his arb awards will get him close to what he makes by getting to free agency a year earlier. If he never is any good then none of this probably really matters. If anything the Twins would have been more generous to him than he probably deserves.

Glad they went a little higher with Kyle since they took him to arbitration last year. Was kind of hoping they could work out an extension but I would guess Kyle wants to bet on himself and see what happens. Looks like most of the numbers worked out about how everyone expected them to,.

I think that is a disingenuous characterization of what happened. If you read the article Buxton believed he would need to compete for his job next\this year. His only real beef with the Twins was he felt he was fully healed and had been playing well in AAA and the Twins didn't call him up in September and he has a good point there. The Twins didn't call him up to save a year of service time which isn't exactly playing fair depending on how you look at it. He didn't blame the Twins for doing it or say anything other than he didn't think that was completely fair to him and he seemed a little steamed about it. I would bet he didn't like the way he played early in the year and the fact he never got a chance to redeem himself probably hurt as well. I can understand that. Competitors like to compete not go home while the season hasn't ended yet. I am not sure what your beef is with the Twins stating he doesn't have any real competition for the position. When healthy he is the best defensive center fielder in baseball. You can't get anyone better. Yeah he has issues at the plate and that is a concern but the only way he can get better is to keep trying at the MLB level. By gaining\stealing that extra year of service they cost Buxton some serious money. The least they could do is be a little generous in arbitration.

Yeah I think the division gets a lot more competitive in 20 and 21. Having our young core play poorly and not a lot of young high end pitching talent means we might be waiting for wave two which most likely arrives in 2021 and 2022. The longer we wait the better our rivals get as well. The thing is we still have to have a young core before we can plug the weak spots with vets. I guess I hope our talent and injury luck works out better than the other guys otherwise we will be good but not good enough to make the playoffs.

100 Mil is the Twins sweet spot. I don't see them going much past that number. Especially with a team where it is hard to determine what players will step up or stay bad and this team full of those types of players. Player performance is anyone's best guess so I don't see the FO spending just to spend. I believe they have a plan but I don't think it includes spending a lot of money this year. As best I can tell they are still looking for a core. Until they find that it is hard to move forward with any certainty. So I don't see them breaking the bank this year but that is just my opinion.

I am nervous about the bullpen. When strong they can win games for you and when weak they lose games for you. Not that I am defending the FO but I think last year put them in a tough spot for this year. This team is pretty young with very little "proven" talent anywhere on the roster. This seems like a prove it year to determine who the team keeps or gets rid of for 2020. I think that includes the bullpen, starting pitching and position players. IMO if a decent number of players improve this year we have a chance to compete with Cleveland. If they don't then no matter what proven guys you brought in they wouldn't make up for all the poor performances of the young guys. Once the FO gets a core in place I expect them spend for more proven talent to fill holes. I just think there are too many question marks this year and we are best off gaining development time for the guys we feel might be future stars on this team. To get there they need at bats and innings pitched. It looks like that is the FO strategy for this year.

I think it has to do with how he tends to fall cliff as the season progresses. In AA at around 100 innings he wasn't the same pitcher. Last year when they brought him up he did well for a few games and then never was the same pitcher the rest of the year even in AAA. Scouts always had doubts about his arm holding up through an entire season so the idea of moving him to the pen shouldn't be a foreign idea. In the Tribune article they also mention his lack of a good third pitch. So I think the wonder boys doubt that is going to "change" much at this point in his career. Is it too early to give up on him as a starter probably but at the same time we need help in the pen and I would rather have him there than in AAA.

Like I said I am 75% with you on the strategy and I think the Twins are actually following it to a degree. Every team needs to start with a core. I just think you are a bit too aggressive in your approach. That is all I am saying.

I liked David and with the numbers he had in A+ I thought he had a chance but his K9 numbers were always to low for MLB success and even in AAA his WHIP was too high to send send him out against MLB hitters. Also he wasn't a hard thrower. He just didn't quite earn a trip up there. He was good but not good enough. Romero started off well but then wasn't the same pitcher after a few starts. Either he got hurt or Hitters had his stuff figured out, but whatever it was it looked like he needed to refine a few things. He didn't pitch all that well when they sent him back down so not sure what the deal was but again if you want to stay you have to perform. The Twins had other young pitchers to try so not sure what your problem would be with him going down. Gonsalves earned his chance but control has been an issue with him in the past so my guess is that is why he was held back a bit. Seems like the coaches were proven right as he had a WHIP of 2 in MLB. Nobody can have that a high a WHIP and stay in MLB, nobody. I like Curtis's numbers as well and they did kind of give him a quick hook but in MLB he has a high WHIP too. There must have been something they wanted him to work on as he looks like has the stuff to make it. IMO you might have a point here but we just don't know what the people closest to him know. There might be good reasons he spent the majority of time in AAA. Other than his first season I have never really cared for Reed. He is too hit-able and too wild IMO and I just don't trust his stuff. I am not surprised he hasn't gotten a call yet and no other team took him in the rule V so that should tell us something (i.e. if he was ready, a MLB team would have grabbed him). Belisle is a mystery to pretty much everyone on this board. My understanding was the club house was a bit of mess and the FO wanted a veteran to help right the ship so to speak. Not sure if that is true but it seems the only logical explanation for why they wanted him back.

But if this is such a great strategy why don't all MLB teams do it? In fact most all MLB teams seem more concerned about getting as much peak performance during a players controllable years as possible. Why did the Cubs not start Bryant his Rookie year but instead at AAA so his clock would start later? Why haven't the White Sox started Jiminez yet? Why aren't most of the top 100 MILB Players playing in MLB? Why are all teams making players prove they are ready before bringing them up? Because according to you they must be rubes for not bringing these players up as soon as they have conquered A ball. All these teams in baseball should be moving their players along faster and yet they don't. I think that says something about the strategy of bringing guys up before testing them at higher levels. I think it says the greatest baseball minds don't think bringing guys up early will work well in the short or long term for the team as a whole.

In a lot of ways the new front office is doing that. They are trying to find the core. Last year Lynn and Morrison kind of fall into their laps as well as Reed. So they took they took chances with more MLB ready player's but they they seemed pretty much on their way to playing a fair number of young guys. I agree the Twins are highly unlikely to pay for big time Free agents. They never have before so don't see them starting now. They are stock piling talent in the minors. I think our only quibble is just how hard to push the MILB talent. They are benefits to pushing a core through at the seme time. I think that has been proven over time. I just don't think there are any teams out there that would be willing to be aggressive as you think they should be.

While I can agree with you on Hicks to a degree (i.e. he was mismanaged and it got so bad he almost quite baseball so he absolutely needed a change of scenery). I still can't buy in to the play them before they are ready routine. I mean some teams occasionally tear everything down and have little recourse but to bring up young guys I think the Pirates have done that to a degree a couple of times in the past and Houston and Royals a while back to a degree as well. Thing is it doesn't always work and if you miss then you increase your rebuild time significantly. The Royals took a long time and the Pirates never really have made it. Houston is the leading example but when you look at the Royals and Houston it was really trades and Free Agency that put them over the top. First your farm team just isn't going to have 12- 18 guys that are ready for MLB at the same time. Second ownership needs to turn a profit and that is hard to do when your team is garbage. Third if you eat up service time and never find a core you are in perpetual rebuild with fewer and fewer assets because you brought your best guys up early and burned them. Yeah I get it the Twins got lucky with Hrbek et all and baseball gods were kind as on paper they weren't the best team in 87 they were better in 91 but again other teams were arguably better on paper. The Twins found another core in the 2000's with Hunter, Mauer, Santana and the great Morneu. They won a lot of titles but never could move beyond that as they just didn't have the talent. They were a good trade or two and maybe a FA away from really competing but they didn't get it done. Good teams are a mix of young players and veterans and good moves and a little baseball god mojo to make it to the next level. Young guys are important but its more than that. Look at any team that has won the world series and while they did so with a core most didn't bring up more than a handful of players who they thought were ready early. Very few teams do it because it is too risky when they can gain experience in AAA and once the skill set is proven then they are brought up. Much less risk and much less waste when it comes to service time. The Twins thought they had a young core in Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Kepler, Rosario and Polanco but so far it hasn't worked for them. They are already trying to do what you are saying they should by promoting early but so far it hasn't worked. Maybe this year is the year everyone breaks through and if they do, do we still bring up Graterol and Lewis and Kiroloff? They better be ready to hit the ground running as the clock starts ticking and they will hold the team back until they figure things out or maybe like Hicks their failures will get so ingrained they will want to quit altogether. I think you are partially right but not completely. You can promote guys who are ready but they need to earn it. If a nineteen year old can hit AAA pitching bring him up but IMO he has to prove his skills can handle the highest levels in MILB before I want that guys in the Majors.

The problem is it just isn't that easy to know what players to keep or discard. Are most first graders ready for third or fourth grade?. No. They need to build skill sets to be ready for the next level. Sure every now and then you get genius but it is rare. Look at Gordon as an example he had a 900 OPS in AAA. In your scenario he starts is ready for MLB but we know that he can't even handle AAA. Also you completely ignore service time issues. If it takes two to three years for them to figure out MLB than you wasted valuable service time. If you give up too soon then you run the possibility of an Aaron Hicks scenario. There is more to these decisions than you are allowing for.

Looking at the 40 man I would get rid of Granite or Reed. They fill pretty much the same roll and Lamonte Wade kind of fills that role as well. We also have Cave in a somewhat similar role. To top it off Kiriloff could be knocking on the door by the end of the year or next year as well. Too many outfielders with little to no Pop. I think we can afford to lose one. I know Austin has a lot of swing and miss but he also hit 17 homers in MLB last year as well. Hate to give up on him this early but we do have Rooker and possibly Weil who could fill that role down the road as well. Still my preference would be Reed or Granite to be moved.

While I am not opposed to him starting I would rather have him in the pen than in AAA. Get him some success pitching in the pen and he can try to start next year if needed. Meja is the only lefty starter we have and he is out of options. I think he is best used in the 5 spot. Any of these guys could get injured in preseason or early in the season so a spot could open up for Romero but right now he looks like the odd man out to me. If that is the case I would still like him in the pen to get more experience and if he is dominant then that is helpful as well.

I really wanted the FO to get Cruz I just doubted that they would be able to do it. I thought he would choose Houston even for less money but I am glad he didn't. We really need this guy right now. He brings in some great right handed power and being a veteran should be a little more clutch in important situations. Thanks FO for making this happen. It really gives me hope that this team can better compete in 2019. With the Twins being at the 100M mark I don't see them spending much more than 10 to 15M more for players. If they can squeeze in two more pitchers with that money then I think they will be done. Potential guys in the system for the pen would be Romero, Vasquez, Moya, Stewart, and Curtis to go with more established guys like May, Rogers, Hildenberger, and Reed,. So there are internal options. It would be nice if they could pick up a legitimate closer though. Probably have to wait and see what is left in the bargain bin before they make that decision though.

Look the kid had a 900 OPS in Chatty last year which is better than Rooker did at that level last year and he is younger than Rooker. Wade is supposedly other worldly with the bat and he struggled when moved up to AAA as well. Blaming his performance issue in AAA on rap seems pretty weak to me. To me he is a talented baseball player and if he wasn't committed to that he would have given it up and started a rap career already. All players have interests outside of baseball. They need to spend time with their families and they do other things than just baseball. You can lift weights hit the ball around and still have a life or find time to rap. In fact I thought one of the reasons the Twins liked Baldelli so much was because he wasn't so completely focused on baseball that he had other interests so that he could better relate to the players. Is Gorden spending too much time creating and promoting his rap music? I honestly don't know the answer to that. All I know is he had a fantastic start to the season last year, has been young for each level he has been at and IMO he is likely to fulfill his potential as an average shortstop who will likely get better with age. I don't think his rap music will keep him from reaching his potential.

Yep when they are drafted they are full of potential and haven't proven much. Once they have proven themselves there is very little potential left so we know pretty much what they can and cannot do. That is why prospects can slip after making it further up. They don't quite live up to the potential we saw earlier in their career, but yes some do actually live up to their potential and never slip back down. Those are typically the most exciting players. I really like the Twins system right now and hope they can turn some of these good players into great players as we could use some higher rated\top 100 players.

While I have always liked Gonsalves and his stats, when it comes to prospect lists it typically is about potential. Duran has a 60 to 65 fastball along with an average curve and Change I believe. Gonsalves can never match the speed and likely the movement on Duran's fastball therefor his ceiling will always be lower. In prospect lists no one is saying one player is better than another only that their potential skills have a chance to be higher. In this case given the information we have IMO I think Duran should be in front of Gonsalves. Taking nothing away from Gonsalves but he is limited by how hard he can throw the ball. He has to be more deceptive with his pitches to have the same level of success that Duran would have as he can blow the ball by batters.

I just don't see Gibson signing an extension when he is just one year removed from having another 31 teams potentially bid for his services. If he is good next year there is a chance he could command a four year deal. Granted there is plenty that could go wrong for him next year as well but if there was ever a time to bet on yourself this would be the year he should. Good discussion on Odo but in the end the Twins have a lot more risk in an extension than Odo does IMO. I agree overall he looks to be trending down not up. Maybe he can and will duplicate last years last half numbers but that is a pretty big gamble to take IMO. based on his second half There just isn't enough info to know how he will pitch in the future. Personally I would wait and see on both pitchers. Granted we don't win a lot of FA money wars but we should have money to pay for for at least one of Pineda, Gibson, or Odo if they are worthy of a big pay day.

I get that you are banking on the fact Odo has figured something out just like Gibson seemed to the end of 2016 but his not being able to handle the lineup the third time through kind of scares me. If you are right and he becomes Gibson 2 that sounds like a great deal. If he remains the same or regresses it seems like an overpay. Based on your stats and if they truly can get him to sign a 3/30 contract it might be a risk worth taking. My gut says no but head says maybe. I guess it depends on how much you believe in Odo's end of the year stats and if they will transfer to next year and beyond.

As can be seen here breakouts are hard to predict. Would have been nice if you had included the reasoning you thought they would break out. If I had to guess I would say Seth picked his two to breakout as they had had high ceilings and then fell due to injury and should have been back to full strength in 2018. Jorge was an interesting pick as he was never supposed to be more than a number 5 and his stuff was not electric. I assume it was based on his one good start at the MLB level that might have surprised all of us and got us thinking maybe there is more here than meets the eye. Pearson was a bit of an unknown as he had just come over to the Twins but I am guessing the thought was he was a better hitter than what he showed his rookie year. He has not shown that is the case just yet. Miranda was a solid pick as he had shown a lot of power and just needed to improve his eye at the plate a bit more. I liked him as a breakout guy as well, He seemed pretty underrated for what he had accomplished the year before. He still has a ways to go with the bat but he looks good for his age right now. Palacios had already kind of broken out the year before so not sure about that pick for a breakout. I guess that he had more things to work on and in the end I guess it doesn't matter as he got traded. On paper they all looked like good candidates but baseball can be brutal as several of the picks kind of flamed out instead of rising up the ranks last year. Here's hoping they learned a lot last year and breakout this year instead.

I love the handbook and have read through most of it already. Thanks so much putting all that information together!! I just love dreaming how great these guys will be. With the talent in this system you really should be doing a top 60 instead of just 30. Thanks again.

Yeah I think 80- to 90- percent of the board here didn't like that pick. I defended the pick because scouting reports gave him two plus plus pitches with another that could be plus. I figured elite reliever as a floor sounded OK. I think that pick should put the turn reliever to starter idea to rest. Since we have experienced it has such a low percentage of working out it was especially risky to do at the top of the draft. Several posters on here commented about that. I know no pick is perfectly safe but this one seems especially egregious because the likelihood of it working out was so low. I know his story is not finished yet but from what I have seen his stuff has been very hit-table I mean loud contact, that I really don't see him turning it around at this point. Maybe he has simply been hurt most all the time he has been in the system and getting healthy will change things. I wish him well but as things stand today this is a low point for him and the Twins.

Relief pitchers and pitchers in general seem to be the positions that most teams choose. Seems rare for teams to keep position players unless they have a talent that can used from the bench (i.e great speed, excellent defense). I think Reed could get picked and maybe Navaretto as his a MLB ready defensive catcher. Unlikely but possible would Wiel and Davis they both have good power but haven't proven themselves at AAA yet so fairlyhigh risk selections. Other than that if were other teams I would pass on the rest.