Dman

Man I just don't see how you can keep Dobnak out of the starting 5. One mistake pitch away from a near perfect Spring. If I would have known he was going to be this good I would've wished the Twins didn't add one more pitcher at the end. Like the Twins I had my concerns but seeing him this spring it seems like a waste to not have him start. Once again I doubted you Randy and once again you proved me wrong. We asked for hits and the team produced 13 of them tonight. Lot's of good battles at the plate and good results tonight. Robles left a straight inside fastball that got crushed for a home run and gave up hard contact to the next batter but he managed his way through the inning. I still don't trust him or his stuff but I hope he is better than I think he is. When Rogers decides to live on the edge and not throw strikes something bad usually happens and it did tonight as he too, left a nice fat straight pitch that got blasted for 2 run HR. Man he struggled against the righties tonight. I thought he was back to dominant but he brought back my doubting side. I think this bullpen is going to have us squirming this season. Maybe things will straighten out yet who knows. Alcala looks to be the most dominant of the bunch right now. It was the replacements but he was throwing it by guys tonight. Fun game to watch for the most part can't wait for the season to start.

If you are adding Derek Law who are you taking off of the 40 man?

Yeah Dobnak has been awfully dominant this spring seems hard to keep him out of the starting five but hopefully Shoemaker does well.

Don't feel bad I was too. I guess they want to keep him stretched out and not take up a spot to start the season. I thought, I guess incorrectly that they would have him time share with Happ to start the season but since they were granted the 4th option I guess that plan changed. I don't think he will down long but who knows.

I have to believe Rogers, Colome, Duffey, and Alcala all have spots. Robles likely as well since they are paying him 2M they aren't going to cut him loose this early. So that is 5 out the seven right there. We haven't seen Colina pitch this spring so seems unlikely he would be a legitimate option but if he is still in camp maybe? I already had Thielbar and Stashak penciled in to start earlier. They are both on the 40 man so would seem to have the inside track. I guess the question is are they willing to bump someone off the 40 to add Law or Waddell? They both have pitched really well the last couple of times out. Would they replace Thielbar with Waddell? Seems early to do something like that and Waddell doesn't have much MLB experience and seems to have just learned a new pitch or how to make his pitches more effective so maybe some time at AAA before adding someone like him? Law doesn't have an opt out until August but he has pitched really well this spring so far. His WHIP has never been this elite before in fact if you look back at his stats he generally had more hits than innings pitched and plenty of walks to boot. If he has better control of his pitches and the new found ability to miss bats he could be a force in the pen. Spring means so little it seems almost impossible to know if this is something he can keep up or not but if the Twins think he can again would they add him and drop or trade someone from the 40 man? It looks like they will be evaluating those 4 guys to the bitter end to see what makes the most sense. Stashak does have options so they can move him around. Not sure if Thielbar has any options left or not but the only way I see them moving him is if they were to add Waddell so lefty for lefty. Gonna be some suspense to the end of the month.

Thank you! Well at least I don't think I am crazy. The 2019 spray chart shows a ton of ground outs between first and second and when you look at flyball outs it is interesting that at least in 2019 they are fairly evenly distributed which doesn't fit my narrative. The hits or line drives, especially home runs are skewed to right as well. Like you said there is no 2020 and 2019 was his best year especially HR wise 2018 is fairly similar as well just not as many HR's. OK so I can see I am over-reacting some but not completely off base either. He is hitting balls to the right side approximately 2/3 to 3/4 of the time it is the groundballs though that are skewing that as he hits those to the right 80 to 90 percent of the time. The fly balls are fairly evenly distributed which boggles my mind but the data proves my assumptions wrong there. I still think there is more he could do approach wise but what do I know. Obviously the Twins have a strategy they believe in and are going to stick to it. It just burns me to see Max hit the ball on the ground to the right so much and become an easy out. Teams are shifting him for a reason though especially in the infield as he hits almost nothing on the ground to the left. I still think there might be value in trying to go oppo to at least move the shift some, but maybe it is over the fence or bust and they don't care about those easy roll over outs.

If that is the spray chart then I am just going to shut up. Is there something that shows the spray chart for outs as well?

I can't believe my eyes on those spray charts. I haven't seen him hit anything to the left side all spring. Even when I watched games last year granted I don't watch all of them or every single play but I don't remember him getting a hit the other way only home runs to right field and the occasional hit to right. Maybe my memory is bad. Is there a chart for balls hit that includes outs. Something feels off here to me.

They will do something grandiose, they have the room financially and they want to take the division this year. I suspect they will come up with something big.

HIs start in 2019 was electric and then he fell off. If he fixes the bat he is one of the more exciting outfielders in the system IMO. Decent speed, good build, likely good defense. If the bat is there the Twins got great value out of that pick. I will be watching him closely this year.

That is a very good question. Thanks for making me laugh out loud! Maybe we can't lose????

They haven't done anything half way so I have to believe they are in on Tauchman. Yankee's just got lucky.

I agree with your analysis on Gordon but unless you see Lewis starting next year one of the infielders has to go next year. It looks to be either Blankenhorn or Gordon. Blankenhorn better fits the Twins, hard hit rate, homer prone bat than Gordon, and Gordon is nothing special defensively either. While I agree he has value I don't think it is enough to keep him past this year. While I concur just cutting him makes little sense they could try and trade him but it probably makes more sense to see if his bat can lift his value. At any rate they could decide to move on from him sooner rather than later depending on how they see things, but to your point Smeltzer makes more sense.

I think the likely issue with getting Berrios Signed is a question of value. Does Berrios line up as number one or number three level starter? I think there are still questions there for the FO. He looks dominant at times and other times extremely hittable. My best guess is the FO is only willing to risk he is a number 3 and Berrios's camp feels differently. The gap would be wide for the expected money versus the perceived value both sides have. I think it is going to take another year to convince the FO to pay up unless Berrios is willing to do a team friendly deal. He has been durable so he has that in his back pocket. I don't see a deal getting done this year myself.

Believe me I thought about it but figured they would try one last time to build more value from him before trying to trade him. He has options so could be an up and down backup for them if they want but yeah I could see them moving on as well. Just depends on how you see things.

I think Devin makes the most sense as well. With Thorpe having a 4th option year they have another lefty to back up Happ or the pen. Maybe they also like what Waddell has done and see him as upgrade to Devin as well, hard to say. At any rate he doesn't fit on the roster past this year. So if they think they can do without him as depth then he would make the most sense. I don't see him clearing waivers though. He could be a legitimate back end starter especially for a rebuilding team. Hopefully they can work out a trade for a lottery ticket.

His regular season numbers aren't that much different though except for slugging. He has about a 230 BA except in 2019 he gains about 100 points in OBP with his good eye at the plate. Yes he does hit more HR's in the regular season and HR's do beat the shift but that is about the only difference. The extra HR's also up his batting average slightly from the spring numbers. He is who he is at this point. The BABIP will never normalize for him with his current approach. It will stay the same because he hits directly into the shift. The breakout talk should go away. If you are OK with his current level of production then I guess he will be fine but he could be a lot better if he used the other half of the field it is there for a reason. If he used it, It would also would give him a chance to normalize his BABIP and potentially break out, but I digress.

I guess I was surprised to see Derek Law in there as Stashak has been pretty good in the regular season. If Law does have an opt out though I guess that might make sense. His stuff has looked really good this spring borderline elite even but who is getting bumped off of the 40 man to add him? Anderson, Smeltzer, Ober? If you want to add him, somebody has to go because I don't see him on the 40 man right now. Would have been nice if the OP told us who they thought would be gone or try to get past waivers because I had Law starting in the minors and coming up in case of injury mainly because the 40 looks full. If he has an opt out then I guess a decision needs to be made but I will be curious to see who gets let go or has a phantom injury to start the season.

Dang the White Sox are pushing all their chips into the middle. If their pitching holds that is going to be one tough team for next 6 to 8 years at least. I am pretty jealous of the lineup they have already not including Vaughn. They don't have a ton of depth but look above average almost everywhere now.

He did OK last year with a 760 OPS but the main thing that saved him were the 22 walks he took and two HR's to start the season. If you saw how Tampa played him yesterday you can see why he will always have a low BABIP I think it was the lowest in baseball. Everyone was shifted to the right they had the second baseman playing shallow outfield. Centerfielder was to the far right and the right fielder was shaded to the line. The outfielders could play deep because the second base man had part of shallow right field covered. Max would need to hit a laser over the first baseman or shortstops head that couldn't be caught by the second baseman just to get a hit to right field. Right field is so crowded he virtually only has three outcomes a walk a Home Run and an out. He has been making a lot of outs lately. Now imagine a player that could use the opposite field and raise his BABIP? Honestly he might be an All-Star player. He makes contact a good percentage of the time but he hits it literally to the same place every time. Didn't Moustakis have to reinvent himself because he couldn't get hits because of the shift? I think Max needs to do the same thing. The BABIP information is telling us something. He is too predictable and the shift is beating him.

Please. please Twins get Max to hit some balls to the opposite field. Pull side is totally killing him. Please. please do it soon. Today it was two two ground outs to the second baseman and one easy pop fly to right field. It has been the same scenario all spring long. How many times do you need to see it to know it is not working? He needs a different approach . I am begging you have him hit oppo or else replace him he is a one trick pony at this point and its not working anymore. His BA and OBP and OPS prove it is not working. Please change it ASAP before you destroy him.

Honestly I think the Arbiter did the right thing here. Yes this decision works out well for the Twins as they get to protect an asset, but I think it benefits Thorpe as well. If he is struggling at the MLB level he can keep working on things at AAA. If he doesn't struggle I honestly don't think he will get sent down. I think the Twins and Twins fans all hope that he never uses and or needs the 4th option and is here to stay.

That is a nice analysis. May, will be missed but Alcala could step into that role. Like you I think Romo is pretty easily replaced by Colome. The hope would be Robles replaces Clippard but I just don't trust Robles yet. I have seen some pretty hard contact off of his stuff this spring, but hopefully he can come back. No one is going to replace Wisler's 2 month of production from last year at least not ERA wise probably not even Wisler himself. So that is problematic in this equation. Maybe there is a mystery man out there but I don't know who that would be at this time. It still looks like a strong pen but the best replacement options don't appear to be on the 40 man. The Twins never gave Colina, Chalmers or Ober any chances this spring. Not sure why but can only assume they aren't ready? Law, Farrell, and Waddell all have K9's over 15 this spring and have looked pretty dominant granted mostly against the replacement players. Still all three look like they could be good replacements if anyone falters. Unfortunately they won't be options early as they would need a 40 man spot and if they are actually good you want it to be a spot they can keep not just for injury. Maybe Colina and Chalmers are ready and they have seen enough to know that and if that is the case maybe they have two solid option on the 40 man. I thought for sure they would want to see how Ober's stuff played this spring but I guess I was wrong there as well. If the Twins get what they need out of Robles and Colome I think this pen should be close to as good as last years that is assuming no regression from Duffy and improvement for Rogers and a healthy season.

Spring training stats are an enigma. Kris Bryant has a great statistical spring and then the stats mean something so it was a travesty that he was sent down. Kirilloff has horrible stats this spring, but hey, we can dismiss those because he got a hit in one playoff game and spring stats don't mean anything. Which is it people make up your minds. I don't know if you have watched him bat this spring but he looks tentative hasn't hit the ball hard when I have seem except for the HR. He doesn't look ready to me via the eye test or box score. So what are we saying here the numbers don't matter and pedigree is how you build your team? Let's bring up all of our great prospects then because they have performed well in AA and deserve to start in MLB. Is that what we are saying? I personally don't get the controversy. The last time Alex played in 2019 he had 756 OPS at AA. I know he had wrist issues but still those are the last numbers we have. He has one hit in a MLB playoff game and 460 OPS in spring training. Is this a player you would want to start in MLB? I can give you thousands of players over the years with better stats than that that still had to play in AAA before getting a shot and probably hundreds of guys with those stats that never even made it. The Twins all but wanted to hand him left field all he had to was put up some reasonable numbers this spring or at the very least sting the ball most of the time to make the team feel comfortable starting him. He did not produce end of story. He gave the FO virtually no choice but to send him down and make sure he would be ready to face the challenges ahead. Also Rooker and Garlick his direct competition have 900 OPS's and above in meaningless spring training stats. In fact the slugging percentage for both of them is higher than Alex's OPS. So we send those two down in the hopes that Kirilloff catches fire? Honestly he made it almost impossible for the FO to bring him north with the team.

At this point I can't see them sending Rooker down given his pretty steady production to this point 933 OPS in 2019 AAA, 933 OPS SSS 2020 MLB, 900 OPS 2021 Spring training. Yeah I think it will be a Rooker Cave Platoon. Garlick will be Rooker insurance and start in St Paul as they are very similar players. Broxton is problematic because it seems impossible to know if he has turned the corner with the bat or not. His Spring says yes but he has several years of poor production that says it is unlikely he will sustain this springs numbers. No one seems to know if he has an opt out at some point this season. I thought I read something that said he did but MLB says he doesn't have one directly out of spring training but that doesn't mean he won't have one in a month or two if he set one up at all. If no opt out though there seems no reason for him to break spring with the team. He would be in AAA getting the at bats he needs on a regular basis and be Buxton insurance as he can play center field better than anyone else on the 26 man. Austudillo's numbers this spring are just too good to drop him. He is a fan favorite and a team favorite and he has position flexibility with the added bonus of being able to cover the catcher position. He will make the team. I don't know why the Twins love Cave so much but he appears immovable at this point. We will see how things work out as the season progress's but I wouldn't be surprised if Kirilloff or Broxton replaced him at some point this year. He needs to have a really good year to remain a Twin as there are just too many outfielder's in the pipeline to keep them all and he looks like the guy to get rid of as the other guys will all be cheaper next year and should be able to produce equal to or greater than what he has to this point. That's my two cents.