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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. I don't think we have to worry as it is highly, highly unlikely they trade Gibson. In fact I would be shocked in two ways. One that a team actually ponied up the prospects to make the deal and two that the FO actually moved him.
  2. I agree. I don't think the FO wants to punt on 2019 either. The Twins had some tough luck this year in severe regression for Sano, Buxton, losing Polanco etc. and they still almost fought back to get in it. If they keep the starters, and get improvements from the pen this team can compete with Cleveland next year. That being said if they got a Chris Sale type offer for Gibson then take it. We can still compete next year without him as well.
  3. I think Duke goes to Red Sox. That has to be the reason he hasn't played. They don't want him to pitch against them in this series. My guess is he is traded tomorrow.
  4. Yeah I noticed in the draft the Twins seem to really be looking for bat to ball skills and approach. Kind of Lamonte Wade type hitters. Having a good eye at the plate allows a player to be productive without even getting a hit. They are looking for power (i.e. hard hit rate see Trevor Larnach) as well but that is harder to find with that approach. While athleticism in nice and can't be taught if you can't hit the ball it is hard to be productive on offense. Personally I think taking guys with a strong hit tool early is a good strategy as it maximizes the odds of the player working out in the long run. It looks like they focused in on those types of players in their trades as well and the three position players they received have good plate discipline and batting averages but not great power potential.
  5. If they trade with the Giants I would try and get Santos or Corry. Both young pitchers with upside. From Cleveland I would take Oviedo or maybe Nick Sandlin and something extra added. I would try and stick with young pitching that has upside. It shouldn't hurt teams too much to those types of players up because they are further away and because they are further away you can maximize the value you receive in trade.
  6. Yep the MLB site agrees you. Their quote is below. "Two prime Brian Dozier landing spots came off the board when the #Dbacks picked up Escobar and #Brewers traded for Moustakas. #RedSox have been mentioned as a possibility because of Pedroia's health, but Boston's focus remains the bullpen. Dozier to Boston "highly unlikely.'' I guess the FO just couldn't get a return they could live with. Very surprised then that the Brewers went with Moustakas as his and Doziers stats were not that different and Dozier typically heats up about now and he actually plays a good second base which the Brewers could use. Maybe the Twins thought they could get them to overpay. Not sure what happened there but I have to believe they couldn't see eye to eye on Doziers value. Maybe something gets worked out yet but it seems a bit grim at this point.
  7. I think the Twins look at Alcala and see his ceiling is a mid rotation starter and floor another Bullpen arm. An arm that would have another 5 to 6 years of control and can be a part of wave 2. On top of that you are getting a young hitter with above average hit, run, arm and fielding tools. So his ceiling is starting outfielder and floor probably 4th outfielder. I think that is tough to turn down for a year and a half of a potential dominant bullpen arm and the last half of this year he does us no good as we are out of it anyway. The other thing is bullpen arms can be found in the off-season and wouldn't have to costs us prospects. I think the FO made the right choice by trading as Presleys value would never be higher than it is right now at the deadline.
  8. How do you feel about Mata or Hernandez as the headliner and Flores or Northcut as the other piece? We are talking just two months for Duke and Dozier.
  9. Does anyone feel like it is Dozier and Duke to the Red Sox for someone higher up in their system? They could use a true second baseman just for the defensive upgrade if nothing else and Dozier can also hit the ball in the seats which is nice to have come playoff time. The Red Sox as we have heard ad nauseum don't have a left handed reliever so seems like Duke would be a good match there. I think the only reason Dozier and Duke haven't been traded yet is they are waiting for this series to end and then announce the trade. Why else would Milwaukee have given up on Dozier unless the price was too high for them. Some other team must have paid more in prospects than they were willing to. I think the Red Sox are the team that will get Dozier.
  10. Good trade again by the FO. Alcala has a big fastball and above slider to go with a good curve and change. Celestino has a 55 hit tool and is only 19. The FO is setting us up nicely for the future. Thank you!!
  11. Prospect ranking for guys this age are deceiving. Miranda, Balazovic, and Moran are low on our list but do you think they will they will stay that low as they mature? Severino was barley top 30 last year and now rates 17 in our system. A lot of what the Twins got is based on projection not where they are right now. Also getting guys further along might have had rule V consequences or needing to find a 40 man spot. You can't just go totally off rankings with younger players. Mark my words Duran is a good get in and of himself.
  12. This is practically my dream trade scenario for Esco. Duran is a nice get and factors in nicely with Balazovic, Enlow, and others young guys coming up for wave 2. He has big fastball, and the curve this organization likes. Young for A ball but a nice arm to dream on. We don't have a ton of great center field talent so Maciel is a nice get. Only 19 in A ball and the OBP is nice but the OPS is a little light. Pretty young so he has time to change that. Don't know any thing about De La Trinidad but seems like a guy with decent upside. I think this is a very good deal for a rental. Just Duran alone is a worthy trade getting the other pieces is gravy. Nice job FO.
  13. We certainly could go for it. You never know what can happen, but the odds are really against this team doing anything in playoffs. All the other teams have greater talent and better depth than the Twins do right now and some of them are adding even more talent at the deadline. So keeping this team together really doesn't matter. Why not get some lottery tickets that we can control for 6 plus years and or create a surplus of talent to trade for other assets when we have fewer holes to fill? The other thing is we always talk about getting the young guys experience but there never seems to be a good time to get that experience. With some trades and two months left we have a chance to clear room and get guys experience so they can be better acclimated when they come back up next year. It seems like by hanging on to just making it, we are hanging on to mediocrity. We are close but need greater talent depth and I see 2020 as the new window. Even 2019 could be a good year as this team is getting better pitching and building depth but we are not there yet. For me a little pain is worth the lager gain.
  14. If Gibson pitches this well again next year he will be gone in 2020 anyway. Boston, LA or NY will out bid us in FA in years or dollars or both. So if the return is decent then trading as painful as it might be for 2019 might be the only way to get a good return on our investment in Gibson. We always complain on this board that we never sell high. This is why. Once someone does well we never want to trade them anyway. If he gets injured or doesn't perform well next year I hope I don't hear from the people who wanted to keep him about how the Twins never sell high. I agree that Gibson gives us the best chance in 2019 and we could have the best Twins rotation in a long, long time, but Sano and Buxton have to come back and be good players to make the whole thing work and they need a really good off-season to fill holes. I guess it comes down to if you want to play for 2019 or build a stronger future. If the return is strong I would trade him. If not then you have to keep him.
  15. Right now on Trade rumors they are saying 6 teams are interested in Moustakas. You look at his and Doziers career stats and they are very close to the same. Even this year their stats are fairly close but with Dozier having a down first half Moustakas is better so far. The thing is it is pretty established that about this time Dozier goes on one of his hot streaks. Also he is unlikely to regress any further than where he is right now so he should move back to career norms. Personally I'd say there is a very good chance he gets moved. Look for what Moustakas nets and expect a similar to slightly better return for Dozier.
  16. You bet that is beauty of the next wave. We can keep and maybe try to extend the players that we know are good and trade those we feel we can replace with younger options. Or trade from our prospect surplus for known major league players. We should just be in better position to plug holes than we are right now. if Buxton and Sano return to decent players next year this team will already be much more dangerous. No need to blow this team up but get value where you can right now because this season is pretty much over.
  17. I tend to agree. There are only so many teams with needs and only so many prospects teams will be willing to part with. There is also competition for trades from several teams rosters beyond the Twins. Unless the Twins are willing to take lessor offers for their players it will be very difficult to trade everyone.
  18. Yep I see 2020 as the beginning of our next wave of talent. Kirilof, Lewis, Graterol, and others should be ready or very close to ready by that time. Our time is coming soon. Not that they can't be good next year it is just that more reinforcements will be ready by 2020. Just have to hope our competition doesn't build a better team before we do.
  19. While Rodneys K9 is good and WHIP is OK I just don't trust him out there. I can see his value for a team like the Phillies though. His numbers are good for a setup man and can be your closer at times when needed. He probably would come cheaper than most other options as well. I guess we will have to wait and see. Seems to me that Duke should actually be worth something as might be the best left handed rental left. Hopefully he can fetch a decent prospect.
  20. Yeah I don't see Dozier fetching as much as I would have hoped earlier in the year. The Brewer's would have to be pretty desperate to make that move for Ray. He might net one or possibly two players in a teams ten to twenty range though. I don't know if he has done enough this year to grab a headliner prospect but then again maybe I don't understand trade value all that well.
  21. This is a really good article. Agree on pretty much everyone you have on this list and even the honorable mentions. Well Done!! Thanks for sharing your thoughts they confirm what I was thinking as well.
  22. I'm just so used to Gibby exploding at least once a month I can't believe he has been this good. This consistent. Thanks for the Stats! The Better Gibson is, the less likely the Twins trade him. We need good to great pitching as much or more than anyone else. If he is good again next year they could work out an extension or try the QO route. He is getting older though so hopefully this isn't his best stretch and then done.
  23. Yeah that works for me as well. I just think he is good enough that he doesn't need the cushion but the people closest to him probably know best. Even if he doesn't hit AA until next year he could be a September call up. If his defense is average I think he makes the big league at an early age. 2020 could be a big year for the Twins as there should be wave 2 talent starting to come in.
  24. I was thinking the same thing. I don't think he would be overwhelmed at AA. If they moved him to AA in the next week or two it would help make up for the time he lost last season. Getting enough AA experience this year and starting there next year with a leg up he would at least have a chance to make it to the big league club later next year. Even if he can't meet that time table AA and AAA is the pitching he needs to see to be ready for MLB.
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