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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Yeah it is a bit early to worry about Rule V. I agree some of the guys on my protected list could move up a level and fall flat and work their way off the list. Some of the guys at the MLB level could crater and be expendable. Lot's of time left before we know who looks like they should be protected. Also need to remember position players are generally hard to take in Rule V with carrying the Max number of pitchers most of the time. You can hide a pitcher in the pen but a position player needs to have value to replace players to give them rest days or in case of injury. They have to stay on the 26 man so not easy to live with that unless they are half way decent or the team doesn't care about winning at all.
  2. Dman
    It makes sense. He put his work out there for teams to see and is betting some team will pick him up sooner rather than later. Maybe his agent has already been approached who knows. I don't think he an answer for the Twins so I wish him the best and appreciate what he gave to the team.
  3. Dman
    I wouldn't argue with the winners above but all trades need a fair bit of context. The Rays were looking to dump Odorizzi's salary and not many teams really seemed to want him. Palacios was a decent prospect at the time but giving up one maybe top 20 player was always going to be a good deal for the Twins who desperately needed pitching. Still it was a salary dump for Tampa so they weren't looking for equal value just some value and getting rid of Odorizzi. They were fine letting the Twins win that trade. The deadline deal for Ryan was a fairly large overpay for Tampa but most analysts felt Ryan was destined for the pen so two guys most likely destined to be relievers for a slugger that could have a David Ortiz type impact seemed decent on paper. It didn't work out that way but hindsight is 20/20. I never liked the Garza trade but the Twins were desperate for a right handed power hitter and they thought they had excess pitching. In hindsight that didn't work out well for the Twins. Trades are gambles. Sometimes they work out sometimes they don't. You just hope they help more often than hurt.
  4. Dman
    I agree AA is the limit but that would be three levels. Low A, High A and AA. Not enough time for him to hit AAA barley enough to get AA if he makes it.
  5. Dman
    Pretty much agree with the OP except on Camargo. He has a high K rate, poor plate discipline, and is not an elite defender. He is a power over hit player that the Twins could afford to lose but unlikely that any other team would put such a player on their 40 Man. As protected I have Canterino SWR SGL Steer Isola Wallner Headrick Varland Mooney Schulfer With Jullien on the fence. That is 10 players 11 if you like Jullien that I feel like they should protect if they want to keep them. I left Palacios off mainly because the bat seems light right now to me. If Correa moves on as expected maybe the Twins make room for him hard to say but I left him off for now. I like Mooney better than Legumina but the Twins seem to like Legumina better than Mooney. I like that Mooney has good horizontal movement on his pitches kind of like Jax does. Who doesn't like a pitcher with a 1.67 ERA good WHIP, K9 and who only has given up 19 hits in 32 innings. He is more dominant than people realize. There are guys I like in Gross, Legumina, Lawyerson, Grace and Funderburk but you can't keep them all and most of those guys just haven't performed well enough to this point to be on the 40 man IMO. The Twins are going to have some tough decisions to make and I bet they lose guys in the rule V this year as they won't protect that many guys.
  6. Dman
    So far Festa's numbers aren't that much different than when he was in low A. His ERA and WHIP are slightly elevated and only his K rate has gone down fairly significantly but is still good. If he can keep this up I have to believe he can make it to three levels in his first year. Nice to see St Paul with the big comeback. Steer has a little of that Rosario not afraid of big moments in him. Tough night pretty much all around for the hitters in the affiliates. A big weekend coming up hope they win them all.
  7. Dman
    To be honest this is how I thought Wednesday's game would play out but the pen managed to hold that one together. Still this is the typical formula the baseball gods like to use in a Twins Yankee's series. Give the little guys hope and then crush them. You would think the baseball gods could mix it up a bit more as these all too predictable games get well too predictable.
  8. Dman
    With what Celestino is doing I don't think you have to worry about Cave coming back and given the Twins brought up Contreras instead of Cave shows that he will really need to shine to get another chance. He really is just a break glass in case of emergency option and I could see him moving on at some point if a rebuilding team will give him a chance. He is a good player but I think he is a very marginal MLB player at least IMO.
  9. Dman
    I think the Twins would have a tough choice to make if Parada is still there at number 8. That being said I don't think the Twins are as desperate at catcher as some people think. Both Hamilton at AAA and Isola at AA have 300 batting averages, 400 OBP's and .900 OPS's. That would be pretty hard to improve upon even for a top prospect. I know those two were not high draft picks but they look pretty good right now and they are playing at the higher levels of the system. Also the Twins spent big and bet big on Winkel last year paying him over slot at $500,000 I believe which means they view him as a talented two way catcher of the future and they have Camargo who K''s too much but hit's tons of HR's. I don't think the cupboard is bare for them at catcher. Still Parada is an elite bat and you can never have too much catching depth so you never know but I think they will be looking at players with more versatility and there are options for Short and Center if they look a little bit down the board. It is so hard to say how they see things though as I never saw the Cavaco signing coming so who knows.
  10. Dman
    Maybe other teams view him differently but he just doesn't look like an elite hitter to me right now. He is the epitome of a contact hitter and only has a 12% K rate and just a few more K's than walks so he is getting the bat to the ball and he can take a walk. The problem is his slugging is .317 and he doesn't seem to be making hard contact. I also think he is being shifted more so there are issues to work through. I think he is a good hitter but I just don't see how he can be considered elite and in the top 100 right now. That could change with a bit of a hot streak with some extra base hits but right now today I have to believe his value is too low for the Twins to consider trading him. He will likely bounce back from what ever his issues are so I wouldn't sell low unless a team is willing to give us full value. That being said Martin does seems like the odd man out right now with Arraez in super hot mode. Spencer Steer showing great plate discipline and power and the Twins with no shortage of 2nd base type players Martin doesn't seem to fit real well at the moment. The one Skill Martin does have over most players in the system is his ability to steal bases but it isn't an overly valued skill these days. Still there is no hurry to move Martin either as he doesn't need be added to the 40 until next year. Will have to wait and see a bit more I think but he is a player that could be dealt for the right package.
  11. Dman
    Hearing a couple of things surfing around the net. One it sounds like after the first 6 or seven players teams view a lot of the next tier as all fairly close and they might try to see who is willing to cut deals so they can spend on the more volatile high school pitchers in the 2nd round. Also I think Callis mentioned the Twins might be on Neto a high contact bat. Think Arraez, Miranda, type of player. He could stick at short as he has the arm and actions but isn't real fast. Might have to move to 2nd base but in this high strike out era having guys that get the bat to the ball is important and the Twins might be able to cut a deal with him as well. I am trying to come around on Berry but another position less player high in the draft seems tough take at this point. Still having a Switch hitting, power swinging first baseman DH could be an advantage if the bat remains elite all the way through. I still think a high school player would fit this team the best as they don't really need a fast moving bat IMO so Collier at this point looks like the one to possibly fall and if he does I would take him if I were the Twins. I still like Cole Young but not sure if that is too early and if he would take a discount. Lot's of ways the Twins can go will be interesting to see how the top 6 plays out and what is left for the Twins.
  12. Dman
    St Pauls first three hitters although newcomers all have OPS's in the 1.000 range. Cave has been on fire recently and Contreras and Hamilton are pretty good hitters themselves. The offense has been on fire since the Steer promotion. CES seems to have found his power stroke again and that is good to see. Big night for the hitters at high A. If Rodriguez is out for a while I wonder if Ft Myers can keep up their current winning pace. He is a huge part of the offense and with Miller slumping other players are going to have to step up. Pitching should keep them close.
  13. Dman
    OK I wish I was a believer but I already had this game penciled in as a loss. Even up 8 to 1 I was waiting for some kind of heart-break comeback. Some how, some way they got it done. A huge, huge win and I don't care about what happens tomorrow as we took it to their best pitcher and reliever and won't get swept. Thank you Twins and good luck tomorrow.
  14. Dman
    That is terrible news for Stashak. By the time he starts getting things going he ends up hurt. Labrum tears are also hard to come back from. Man the injuries keep mounting.
  15. Dman
    I am just saying I thought we had more than enough starting pitching entering the season and now it seems to have evaporated. That is all.
  16. Dman
    The Twins know they are losing this series. They will try to set themselves up to win the Tampa series then hope to get some some guys back when they face the Guardians as that series will likely determine the season IMO. If they can find a way to beat Cleveland back I think they will still have a chance. If things go south in the Tampa series then I think the Twins will get reeled in and likely lose the division lead. Seattle hasn't been a good place for the Twins to play and Arizona has a plucky team so they will need to get it together just to stay on top if things go well. It is looking like all that pitching depth was smoke and mirrors. Paddack out the rest of the season. Bundy looks really bad, Archer doesn't look great. Gray has been injured more than healthy. Ober has been injured a good chunk of the season. Winder is out. Ryan was out with Covid and is our only really good pitcher. About the only bright spot has been Smeltzer. I don't see how the Twins are going to get it done with the starting staff they have.
  17. Dman
    Maybe Seth knows the real answer but just spit balling I would say 1) All three affiliates are in the hunt for 1st place in their divisions so losing one of your better players could hurt. 2) A lot of the guys we want to move up have a chance to be All-Stars in their leagues which is an honor and recognition that would be nice for them to get if possible. 3) There is only about a month until the MiLB All Star break and after the break still a solid 2 months for them to get used to their new level so why not wait a bit longer? Still I see your point with the lost Covid year and SGL being 24 there is no time like the present to get him moving. If timely development trumps everything then they should move him sooner rather than later because he looks more than ready.
  18. Dman
    Steer and Kirilloff have really injected some offense into the St Paul lineup add in Beckham and a surging Hamilton and suddenly they have a formidable lineup. If the pitching was half way decent they would have a very balanced club. Matt Wallner continues to hit and he took a walk. I know I say this every time I talk about him but that 34% K rate along with the .384 BABIP is troublesome and has me thinking regression. Still he has a .913 OPS after a brutal start to the season and he has managed an .800 OPS every year in the system. He is the prototypical Hard hitting Twins prospect and it is working for him so far. My guy Jefferson Morales is having a tough start to the year. He was on fire last year. Gotta believe he is going to heat up a bit more yet this year. Fedko looks like he is starting to adjust to HIgh A. he has an equal number of walks and K's and solid slugging percentage. I still think he is going to be a good late draft find along with Mikey Perez. SGL was the story though with 6 strong innings and just one mistake pitch. Gonna be hard to keep him down at High A. He looked like he might have been ready for AA from the start but has certainly confirmed he is ready now. Rosario with a nice night and moves his OPS back into the .700 range. Only 1 K as well which is nice to see as he generally has multiple K's per game. Still it is nice to see his bat come around. Nice to see Anthony Escobar back and picking up where he left off with 2 K's on the night. Guessing they will slowly work him back in. Hope Hajjar is not injured and hopefully someone can fill us in on why only 2 innings.
  19. Dman
    Thanks for this I was waiting for it. I really like the weekly and season stats together. I think we all are beginning to see Emmanual Rodriguez could be a special player an All Star caliber player. I can't think of a player having better week but I could be wrong. Just hope he stays healthy and that the Twins move him up after the MILB All-Star break. Haven't had a chance to see Parades and I wonder what he throws. IIRC he doesn't have dominant fastball. Still he has been pretty lights out from the start. Just too many hot hitters to highlight them all. Pitchers at the upper levels seem to be struggling to some degree. Pitchers at the lower levels have been lights out. Lot's of good things happening though when all four affiliates go 4-2 for the week.
  20. Dman
    All I was saying about K rate is that it isn't elite not that it is a huge problem given his other stats. What that says to me is either he doesn't have an elite eye (taking called 3rd strikes) or he doesn't have the ball contact skill of someone like MIranda (Swinging and missing a little too much). If he can take that K number down and turn some of those plate appearances into more walks or more hits that should help him even more. His BABIP is a little high at .378 so putting a few more balls in play could help down the line. Like you said it isn't really a problem at this point as he has more walks than K's so he is working counts and seeing the ball well. Also he is only 19 so lot's of time to gain even more experience to help with the K rate. And to be honest his K rate is far from from horrible at 26-27%. IMO to be elite that number should be under 20% so he isn't that far off and he is only 19 so Yeah I think he can get there but as of today he is not there quite yet.
  21. Dman
    Yeah I noticed that too. Miller is at #20. It means more that Rodriguez and Miller are excelling at age 19 though. If Mikey wants to move up early he needs that OPS in the 900 range IMO. Still it is good to see him there and see the potential he has. The Florida State League seems to have better pitching than the other leagues as the OPS numbers are lower there than the other leagues. Which makes Rodriguez's numbers all the more impressive and bodes well for his transition to High A.
  22. Dman
    He should be in the top 5 by mid year IMO Maybe top 3. Also wouldn't be surprised to see him in top 100 lists. I believe he is the most dominant player in the Florida State league right now and it isn't even really close. He is essentially elite in all phases of the game except K rate. I don't know what more the kid can do other than move up a level.
  23. Dman
    While I don't disagree with your description of Martin's future potential the fact is( granted in a SSS) he currently has .685 OPS at AA. I think 6 other players ( Chris Williams, Wallner, Jullien, Isola, Bechtold and Steer when he was there) are performing better facing the same competition he is. Several other players are not far behind his OPS number and you could argue he should be bating 8th or 9th on that team. Even Martin's OBP isn't quite as good this year as even last year. He has already fallen down the top 100 prospects list and if his performance remains the same I have to believe he could fall off the list entirely as he is not providing elite production. If the numbers don't improve I would say he isn't even providing much more than average production. His defense has been bad enough that most scouts talk about 2nd base and left field as his likely only options right now. His strength as you noted is an Arraez type eye at the plate and I am big believer in players that work counts and use walks to their advantage but he still needs to hit and hit better than he has been. Right now he looks more like a 10th round draft pick trying to work his way up than a top of the 1st round pick. I am not saying he won't bounce back. He has an innate feel to hit given his college production and even last year to some degree but right now today he has a lot of work to do to get to better than average status let alone elite or Arraez status.
  24. Dman
    I agree with the OP on Bundy. It seems like a lost game before the game even starts once he heads out there. He was sooo good his first few starts so it is kind of odd he can't get the magic back. At any rate it would be nice to have someone almost anyone else in that spot right now to give the team a greater chance to win. The bats were pretty silent in the Detroit series and have there have been lapses of offense all year. Hopefully this team can right the ship soon as a Yankee's sweep will likely put the division lead in jeopardy.
  25. Dman
    I would guess that if they want to bring him back he and Arraez will either split time at 1st and DH or they will primarily play Kirilloff at first and DH Arraez against righties. Arraez could still get time at second or third when the matchups are good.
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