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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    No reason not to get a second opinion but it seems like about 90% of the time if there is a tear surgery is the only fix. It just seems like once it acts up even after rest it just can't handle the same amount of stress it used to. I would say odds are he ends up getting surgery but certainly no harm in a second opinion or trying all the least harmful options first if you think there is a chance they might help. I just haven't seen rest work very often in these cases especially with older players. I think there is a good chance he is out for 2022.
  2. Dman
    I agree. He had a nice stretch and even good pitchers have bad days. The key is generally minimizing those bad days or the damage done. The Red Sox are a good hitting team and Jax generally gives up contact so unless he develops an ability to K guys he is always going to need some BABIP luck to get it done. No such luck in this game and it is also why he was always up and down in AAA as well. This is where low strike out numbers hurt guys. Still no reason not to see what he can do in this lost season and he has had some good games. With some polish who knows maybe he can be a solid 5th starter might as well find out.
  3. Dman
    Very happy to see BJ Boyd get promoted. He was a real difference maker on that AA squad. He has done nothing but hit and hit well since they brought him onboard. I don't know how they found him but that was a good find. He will be sorely missed in that Windsurge offense but hopefully some of the other guys step up. I was bummed to see the weeks line for De la Trinidad and Palacios. They had the poor pitching Springfield team and did not hit well. Ernie hasn't been the same hitter since returning from injury so guessing whatever the issue is he isn't 100%. Palacios has been a streaky hitter this year and has slowed down quite a bit after the season half way point. Hopefully they both rebound as they are two of my favorite underdog players to watch. I had to look at Julliens line for this week three times as the 610 OBP was really tripping me up. For a minute I thought maybe the Slugging and OBP were mixed up because you rarely see a 610 OBP but he does walk a lot and is the league leader in walks. I am not sure how accurate MiLB gameday is but IMO he sure gets the good end of a fair number of close calls. At any rate whatever he he is doing it is working as being first in walks and number of pitches can only help him get good pitches to hit. I was ready to give up on Helman after his poor 2019 season and the fact that it looked like he may never hit for power. Looks like I was wrong as he is hitting for power now and looks like he could be legit. The Twins sure have a lot of interesting players at 2nd base. Loving what Louie Varland has been doing all year. Hoping he just stays healthy to the end.
  4. Dman
    I am with you. You just are not going to get many\any incentive deals like this for a potential All Star caliber player. There is plenty of risk and I get that it would suck if he was out more than healthy during the life of that contract but if he hits those incentives the Twins should be jumping for joy because they would have a legit difference maker for once. Even if those incentives push them over whatever self imposed budget they might have they owe it to their fans after all the ineptitude of previous seasons. If they already agree on the bottom number they should just get this thing done.
  5. Dman
    Man you are the all knowing one when it comes to stats and I almost always like your takes. I am basically going off of where he was placed in various top 30 lists and he has been in the middle on most of them so there may be something there what that is I do not know because I haven't seen it yet. What is your thought about keeping him on the 40 man?
  6. Dman
    Yeah his WHIP since joining the Twins has not been good. I am hoping part of it is just the innings load after Covid. He is one of a handful of Twins pitchers that look like he is going to make through the season without getting injured or shut down early. Part of the reason he was included in the deal is that he likely wasn't going to make the 40 man cut for Tampa next year. I still think the Twins keep him on their's but have to believe next year would be a prove it or lose it type situation. He has a 4 pitch mix hopefully the Twins coaches can get him to the next level.
  7. Dman
    Some nice observations there, thanks! I agree with Vallimont it seems they have him throwing more strikes but he is giving up way too many hits. He won't be a 40 man add and honestly I can't see another team putting him on their 40 man roster he would be a disaster at the MLB level. With his WHIP they should be working him more as a reliever IMO. I guess they can give him one more year as a starter but I think his stuff will play as a reliever hard to know at this point. Severino is going to be a close call for being a 40 man add. Will he be next years Baddoo? Hard to say but HIgh A to the majors is a very big jump. Not sure he is quite that good but I could see a team checking him out via rule V to see if he can stick. I think we all are interested in what Soularie brings to the table. So far he has come pretty much as advertised lets hope he escapes the injury bug and keeps that hit tool in prime shape.
  8. Dman
    Thanks Parmelee is just a tad before I really started following the minor leagues as closely. It might not be apples to apples but close enough IMO. AAA is AAA even if he had some MLB expeirence. Hard to believe he hit that well and couldn't make it translate. MLB is just different I guess. Any small weakness gets exploited and if you cannot adjust you are toast. I still like Miranda's chances though. The low K rate and good contact rate bode well for his future. He is still a bit aggressive at the plate and doesn't walk much but have to believe the low K rate can offset that with more balls in play. I guess we will know soon enough as he doesn't have too much more to learn at AAA.
  9. Dman
    Yeah Miranda has had a fair number 0 for games recently so not too surprised by that number. His OPS was about to lose almost 100 points until he had his 4 hit game last night. He has been slumping just a little bit but those numbers are still good just not great like we are used to. I noticed he never got a hit on Cingrani who has been an MLB pitcher in the past so I do think his adjustment to MLB ball will be rough but I guess we will see. His over all numbers are impressive though as I don't think I have ever seen a Twin at the AAA level hit 341 with 1000 OPS before. Here is to hoping that his transition to MLB ball goes as well.
  10. Dman
    I am with you on Kerrigan he is having a great year. He has been patient at the plate his slugging is really good his K rate is just a bit higher than you would like to see it at 30% but other than that his metrics looks pretty solid. He has been very under radar good. I like Whitefield too but he is too aggressive at the plate so he doesn't walk much and his slugging is lower than both Kerrigan and Celestino. If he can solve that next year he would be legit option at the MLB level IMO. Gore has been far better than I ever imagined he could be. I agree they have to move him up and he could be an option next year.
  11. Dman
    I don't think I said we should, I just noted Garlics positives. I like Refsnyder better than Garlic and there is no guarantee Rob stays on the 40 man either. I still am backing Rooker to a degree (he needs to be better at the plate) but keep in mind both Refsnyder and Garlic have performed better than Roooker at the MLB level to this point.
  12. Dman
    Joe Ryan comes as advertised. I Wonder if we get a look at him in MLB ball this year or if they really start limiting his innings. Nice to see Sabato continue to hit balls out of the park. Maybe there is more hope than I thought there was for his bat to come around. Mooney has been money but he hasn't pitched a ton this year either. Man that Wichita team has some tough hitters. Almost everyone on the team has an 800 OPS. Has to be a tough lineup for pitchers to face
  13. Dman
    I think Kirilloff and Dobnak are pretty safe adds. I know Dobnak had a tough year this year but he showed signs early that he might have potential to be a number 4 starter. He was starting to K guys and he is a groundball pitcher. The Twins believed in his stuff enough to give him an early contract. Now would not be the time to completely give up on Randy. Colina is hard throwing pitcher with a plus slider and the Twins currently lack velocity in their bullpen arms so it would be hard to let him go and one of the bottom teams would surely pick him up if the Twins dropped him. He likely stays unless the Twins feel his arm will never be the same. Smeltzer is the tough one. I don't love the idea of giving up on him without giving him one more shot but from what I have seen his ceiling appears low. He is a lefty though and we don't have many of those and he could be good out of the pen as well so I don't know I guess it depends on who else we have to expose before I could decide. What Stashak can do seems to be easily replaceable. Would I like to keep him yes I would but their seems to be a fair number of pitchers coming up that will have higher ceiling's so if he needed to be sacrificed I could see it happening. Garlick has a nice bat and can play left field OK. He is a beast against lefties and would be good in a platoon but there is a reason he has been on the fringes of the 40 man for most teams and that is he doesn't look like a guy that hold down a spot on a regular basis and looks more like a situational bat. I could be wrong but he is also about to turn 30 and left fielders are not that hard to find. Refsnyder looks more versatile and I think his bat plays against lefties and righties as well. I don't see Garlick coming back unless it is on a minors deal.
  14. Dman
    Wondering if they are giving him a chance to catch on with a playoff team. Maybe no one wants him but it seems odd that they let him go the last week players can be added to the roster and still be eligible for the playoffs. They must be doing him a solid unless they want Whitefield at AAA so they can play Martin in center at AA.
  15. Dman
    I was right there with you Nick. He really looked bad. I was building all kinds of trade scenarios for him even up to the deadline. Honestly at the time it felt like we had given him enough patience but now I can see that wasn't the case. Baseball is a game of ups and downs I guess that is what makes it frustrating but also fun. In this case I am just glad the Twins were more patient than I was.
  16. Dman
    I have had my concerns as well but starters are always battling efficient outs versus Strikeouts. Strikeouts usually run up pitch counts and we all know most teams don't want their starter to throw more than 100 pitches and monitor them the third time through the order as well. You have to risk contact but if you can get a guy out on just one pitch that is better than striking him out using 5,6,7,8, or 9 pitches. We know he strike guys out as he had the highest K rate in the system at one point and maybe still does not sure. What we didn't know for sure is if he could be a more efficient pitcher than he has been. It is a balancing act to some degree but if he can get weak contact and have strike out stuff that is a perfect combination to have in a starting pitcher. I am fine if he sacrifices some K's and goes an extra 2 innings. Especially if it is a quality start. We'll see how he does the next time out but he has had one of the better seasons I have seen a 1st full year guy have. He has been fun to watch and I hope he continues to improve especially that changeup and he just might end up a starter yet.
  17. Dman
    Thanks for this article. I didn't like the pick when the Twins made it but I guess it goes to show they can see guys with potential to have a plus pitch and work from there. I really thought he would wear down as the year went on and his numbers would be less impressive but he has been pretty consistent all year from what I saw. I agree the pen seems the most likely place he would play but good pen arms are apparently harder to find than I realize so hopefully he continues to develop ways to make his pitches more effective.
  18. Dman
    I wonder if that will be the last we see of Lewis Thorpe? He doesn't look like 40 man material to me. I remember when they first got him and he was throwing 93-95 as a teenager I believe. He was dominant striking guys out and he looked like a can't miss pitcher and lefty to boot. He was never quite the same after the TJ surgery IMO. He still had some good moments don't get me wrong but he just didn't seem to have quite the same stuff. He worked hard to come back and maybe he can be a pen arm for some team in the future but I just don't see it happening with the Twins. I certainly could be wrong but even after all that time off he didn't look that good today. Honestly I think Smeltzer has better stuff and I don't love his stuff either because he is so homer prone. Maybe Thorpe isn't hurt that bad and he gets another game or two but with the low velocity and lack of control it looks like the end to me.
  19. Dman
    Love your write up on Palacios and I too started to notice him as more legit when he had that 900 OPS earlier in the year. He seems like the only legit player they have at the position so I guess I don't understand why they can't at least move him up to AAA if they want to play Martin at short. I know a close to mid 800 OPS at AA doesn't translate particularly well to MLB because he is likely going to lose 150 to 200 points on that when moving up to the MLB level but that still isn't any worse than Simmons right now and it would be nice to have a utility player that could at least reasonably back up short. So if they plan to add him it would also be nice to get him some reps at the MLB level to get the jitters out and see how he does or maybe they are just hoping he regresses so that they don't have to add him hard to say. At any rate I am with you on the Palacios bandwagon. I too noticed that Quad Cities team when they came to town and demolished us. There is a lot of talent on that team. Not sure many of those guys look like super stars but they have the numbers to find several solid MLB players from that team. KC is going to get younger and better real soon.
  20. Dman
    I thought I heard some chatter about shutting SWR down for the year kind of like Winder. His stats eroded as the year went on so maybe some dead arm issue's? He pitched a decent number of innings so maybe he will just work on stuff until the end of the season. Of course depending on the situation they could bring him back yet this year as well. Hard to say. I just wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see him until next year is all. I was wondering the same thing about the divisions and teams in general. Our AA hitters have feasted on Springfield pitching so if the talent level is lacking there and it inflates some of our hitters stats it does make you wonder just how good some of our guys really are. It should get evened out league wide over the coarse of a season but like you said other leagues could be better or worse based on how those farm systems are doing at certain levels. Likely no easy answer but it does make me wonder sometimes.
  21. Dman
    Jax just keeps doing his thing and he still looks good out there. He didn't get many K's last night but he made it 6 innings which is something that seems hard for our pitchers to do. The pen has been good and holding their own. Amazing what can happen when we pitch better. Just happy to see Jax continue to perform well would be nice to have some of these young guys succeed.
  22. Dman
    I was happy to see the Twins take several left handed pitchers early in the draft. They said they weren't targeting them but they never have had much left handing pitching in the system. Hopefully they can continue to balance that out a bit more not looking for 50/50 but 30/70 would be nice. They still don't have much for Short Stop depth. I know there is hope for Lewis but he has never been plus there and might have to work hard just to be average at the position. Martin supposedly ended up with arm problems playing there and doesn't have much experience playing there either. Palacios seems to be the only player that can stay at short and maybe be average there and that is a big maybe. He isn't even currently on the 40 man so hard to say how the Twins feel about him. While you have zero for catcher, Isola looks like he could be something and Camargo and the 5'8" Morales could move up as well. Plus they added two catchers in the draft and have three fairly young and solid catchers at MLB level so not too worried about that position just yet. They have a ton of guys for 2nd and or third base so no need for more of those guys. Surprisingly outfield looks a little thin if you ask me but if you move Martin and or Lewis there then maybe not. Pitching appears to be the strength of the system let's hope that turns out to be the case and some of those guys become rotation fixtures at the MLB level for a good long time. With the exception of shortstop the system looks pretty good to me. There is some really good to great potential there.
  23. Dman
    The Twins do have plenty of power hitters in the system. I know I have said this a few times before but they have 9 guys that could hit 20 homers this year. The guys currently at 14 need to hit 1 HR per week with a multi HR game or two thrown in there to do so not impossible but not a given either. Pitching in general seemed to be down this month. The arms must be getting tired as even guys that had been doing pretty well got hit hard not every body but even Varland had a tougher time than normal. Not sure if the new and improved Severino is for real or not just yet but that is a good couple of weeks he has had moving up a level. We will see if teams figure out better ways to get him out in the future but right now he looks really, really good at the plate. As you stated lots of HR''s this week and the hitters look good about 1 month left in the season will be interesting to see how these guys finish.
  24. Dman
    You might be right about Severino. It seems a stretch that he would be Baddoo like out of High A but I think after Baddoo we\they might be hesitant not to keep him. I think a lot of it will depend on how he finishes the year. If he finishes hot I don't think they will have a choice as you would be looking at a player likely to succeed at AA the following year so why not roster him and try him at the MLB level a little early. I could see a team doing that. Probably the Tigers again. If he falters down the stretch seems like a longshot. To your point we do have a lot of second base depth in the system so losing him wouldn't be the end of the world for a team with several years of Polanco and Arreaz coming up and Spencer Steer in the wings. They might have enough depth that they just leave him unprotected because there is no way he can help the team in 2022 and he would be taking up a 40 man spot. They might feel they can't afford to add him.
  25. Dman
    That is pretty close to what I had I also have Thielbar penciled in but if they find someone better in FA I could see him gone. They don't have much for lefties unless you think Moran takes Thielbar's spot. I too like Refsnyder but doubt he is a long term answer so if they wanted to go another direction I could be OK with that. Will have to see how he finishes the season if he slumps I doubt any other team would want him that badly but who knows. If he does well might be hard to let him go. Guys I still have concerns about would be Palacios, Contreras and Cabbage. They all could hit 20 HR's this season and all have OPS's over 800. A team at the bottom might be willing to take a chance especially given how Baddo, Wade and Miranda turned out this year. The same would go for Severino if he isn't added. The Twins seem to have good talent hiding in the upper levels will be interesting to see how much of it gets picked off this year.
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