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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I am most excited about Martin and Miranda probably because they are so close to impacting the big league club. Bats that make a lot of contact are hard to find having two guys like that ready to go is nice to have. I still like Lewis at number 1 he is the only potential 5 tool player in the group. Hard to get excited about him though because we haven't seen anything from him in two years and the last full season he was far from special with the bat. I am still a believer though. If he does work out and play to his top end potential I think the Twins will have a pretty potent offense for years to come. Rodriguez and Miller just seem to far away with too small a sample size to say much about. With Miller it is nice to have a likely solid switch hitter who should also be solid in the field. With Rodriguez the bat could be special and he likely has the wheels to plus on defense in the corners. Will know more once next season ends.
  2. Dman
    I am a little surprised he signed with a pitching rich MiLB system. Hopefully he is just looking to be a pen arm because I honestly don't see a spot for him as a starter. Or maybe he likes the new analytically minded Twins and see's this an opportunity to find something to make him even better and parlay that into something bigger? Hard to say but a pretty large gamble here by a pitcher I was excited about before he left.
  3. Dman
    I like that he has that strong arm because it is needed at short. Glove and footwork are import to be in position to make good throws and I hope he can develop those skills. Hard to project power at 16 even Spencer Steer at 21 was not projected to have much power and he just hit 24 HR's last year so Herrera has plenty of time to develop power. I like that he looks like he will have decent hit tool. Would be nice if he had some better speed to maybe solidify his ability to stay at short but here's hoping the Twins found another Polanco.
  4. Dman
    It was a great interview and he was very cerebral\detailed with his answers. The comment that stuck with me was Strotman talking about being traded and knowing the Twins wanted to see him do well and maybe even give him a chance at some MLB playing time but he just didn't pitch well. (He didn't blame his health or anything but odds are he was trying new stuff and trying too hard). At any rate it was the reality that he was trying so hard to take advantage of an opportunity and couldn't for whatever the reason's his performance was poor. That is what hit home for me just the struggle of wanting to make it so bad and still having to live with some failure. It just goes to show how little I know\understand about the process of making it. There is a mental side that can get you in trouble by overthinking and a physical side that when injured no matter how strong your mental makeup your body just won't do what you want it to do. It was refreshing hearing Drew explain some of that in the interview. As a fan that is good stuff to hear otherwise at the MiLB level it all just seems like a numbers game. I would highly recommend listening to the interview.
  5. Dman
    That is an impressive list. They really need to figure out what they have in these guys this year. They have about 6 guys they might need room on the 40 man for next year in Canterino, Varland, Gipson-Long as well as Wallner, Steer, and Jullien. Some of those guys need to make it so there is more room on the 40 man. If they can't then maybe they get dropped not sure but it is time for pipeline to show it is working. Very excited about all of these guys and honestly don't even care about the order.
  6. Dman
    I pretty much agree with the top 5. I do think the that the Twins might prefer to trade Arraez instead of Martin though. Martin is a similar type bat with greater speed and possibly more power and they would get to reset the service time clock. If Martin can gain some power he fits well in left as well. I don't see them trading such a near sure thing even if he is somewhat redundant. Buxton at number 1 is the right call. I know that injury bug has been hard to shake but his contract for a potential superstar who you only pay if he produces is pretty much unheard of in baseball. He is the best player on the team when healthy and only gets the huge payday if is productive. Has to be number 1 IMO. It's a nice list and I think pretty accurate as well. Thanks to the thought exercise.
  7. Dman
    I can't see MLB players being willing to lose a full season of Baseball checks. That is not going to fly and their rep will never get that kind of buy in. I can see the players being willing to sacrifice spring training though and expect them too. If they think it puts pressure on the owners they might skip a few months of the season but owners don't really get hurt with a work stoppage since they don't have to pay salaries. The players do get hurt because they won't get checks for playing supposedly the game they love. Let's be honest the owners hold most of the cards here. Also it is in neither sides interest to lose the fans and losing a full season of baseball could very well have fans moving onto other pursuits there are plenty of things to do besides follow baseball. Both sides let that happen and fans don't come back then salaries could plunge and the game slowly die. I have heard reports that if they can't reach a pact that the players might be willing to play this season based on the current CBA. That might make some sense as owners won't like the uncertainty and the players will still get checks. I think the players goal is mainly to hold out and not cave to whatever MLB proposes. As best I can tell that will be the strategy unless of course they get most of what they are asking for. Losing a full season of baseball is too great a risk for either side IMO.
  8. Dman
    Yeah I don't think the Twins are in rebuild mode. The Twins had right around a top ten offense last year and with so many injuries had to play guys they normally wouldn't and got a historically bad offensive performance from the Shortstop position so the offense can improve some and is already in the upper tier as it is. It all comes down to pitching IMO. I do think they have assets they can trade to get a Berrios type starter and the pitching pipeline is pretty full at all four levels and while there will be plenty of failures or injured arms, with that many solid guys a few of those starting pitchers have to turn out. Bullpens are always variable but I think they have enough arms to fill those spots as well. I honestly don't think this team is that far away from being a playoff team. I do think they are still a ways off when it comes to competing with the top tier teams for a shot at the World Series. For that they need some top end pitching and even slightly better offense from more players. They are getting there but I don't think they will get it all done next year. Still this is not the time to rebuild with a good offense in place and the best talent we have ever had in the pitching pipeline this team can still make a run or two or three in the next 4 years.
  9. Dman
    I am pretty excited about Bryans hit tool. Not sure why he is ranked so low unless scouts see his future speed and power limiting him. I wonder how you evaluate 16 year olds? So much more growth projection from even 16 to 18 let alone 18 to 21. I see him as a potential Arraez type player but he has a long ways to go. I always get excited about these guys but you literally have to wait 6 to 8 years before they make it to MLB ball and that is a long time to wait. Still I wish him the best and am glad he is a Twin.
  10. Dman
    I don't think they have to trade Arraez this year but given the Glute of second baseman coming up in the system (Martin, Steer, Jullien, Severino, possibly Miranda) not to mention Polanco is entrenched there and we have Gordon and Arraez to play there. The Twins have more depth at 2nd than almost any other position. I would hate to see one of my favorite players leave but if the return was good enough there probably is no time like the present to trade him.
  11. Dman
    I hope Sabato's Contact issues are behind him if not the walk rate could help him find the fastball's he needs to be successful. Very up and down season so very hard to say how he will do moving forward. Jullien was impressive to watch last year IMO. I know the BABIP was high but the eye at the plate was outstanding with an almost 500 OBP which is crazy town if you ask me. His ability to steal bases was a surprise given the scouting report on him. He could still stand to work on the power stroke and make more contact but he was a steal at number 18 and the Twins deserve some credit for getting him to sign. OK I might be biased but I really like Spencer Steer. I got to see him play in Beloit in 2019 and while he didn't have a great game that night he sure looked good in his at bats. This season as noted he really showed his power and with that I feel cemented himself as a legit MLB bat. Still needs to face those wily AAA arms but with the good eye at the plate, the new found power and ability to play multiple positions Nick Gordon better be looking over his shoulder. Feels like the Twins are pretty stacked with 2nd baseman with Polanco, Arraez, Gordon, Steer, Jullien and Severino and possibly even Miranda there is no shortage of 2nd base\utility players in the system. We really need Celestino to work out as there isn't much center field help in the system right now. It is basically Celestino and then looking all the way down to Urbina who is pretty far away. It is possible Lewis and or Martin can play there but Lewis is needed at short and Martin isn't an ideal fit in center IMO. So I do hope Celestino continues to hit and play well. We will need a solid backup for Buxton as well as the corners. Surprised to see Rosario this high with power basically his only plus tool at this point. I don't know too much about him other than the draft analysis on him. He had a great start to his MiLB career and MLB.COM has him in the Twins top 30. Hopefully his Defense become as good as his offense. Power hitters are exciting to watch it just feels like he is bit high on the list to me but obviously Seth know a lot more than I do. Not quite as solid a group as I was hoping for this high up but all 5 could be MLB players. Will be curious to see how well they do this coming year.
  12. Dman
    Looks like the Twins are set to get MLB's number 17 ranked player Yassar Mercedes, Number 35 Yilber Herrera and number 39 Bryan Acuna (yes that Acuna's brother). So getting a few top guys this coming year. Mercedes is interesting and hopefully grows into a center fielder. Herrera is compared to a young Polanco. Neither one has a plus hit tool currently but these guys are so young the ratings likely don't mean that much anyway. Acuna has a plus hit tool (surprise) and an average arm with run and power below average. With some luck he could be an Arraez type player. Nothing overly great no 5 tools players and no tool ratings over 55. Mercedes is the highest ranked and had the most potential. The write up says he has some of the best tools in the class and then they proceed to rank everything as average except speed so not sure what that means. And yes the Yankees appear to be the favorites for the top international prospect again this year.
  13. Dman
    It didn't feel that way last year until the Twins drafted 5 pitchers in the first 6 rounds and traded for Ryan, Strotman and SWR. That was quite a swing in depth for this team. 7 or 8 guys with good potential in the span of one month. That changed things quite a bit IMO.
  14. Dman
    I was pretty excited when the Twins made the Hajjar pick. I know he is only in the Big10 but the K rate was there and he is a lefty that can hit mid 90’s. Has the right build as well. I was hoping we would get a look at him in MiLB but it was not to be. The industry saw his potential as well so it seemed like a solid pick to me. Povich was a bit of an odd pick in the third round to me. Very hard to find much information on him. The stats were there but it seemed high to pull the trigger in the third round. I guess maybe the Twins knew something other teams didn’t? This team is in desperate need of hard throwing lefties and his MiLB debut was pretty impressive with 19 K’s in 10 innings. This is where Seth’s ear to the ground is nice to have because all I have are stats and hearsay to guide me. Pretty excited if this is a pick that exceeds expectations. I had Raya pegged for the FCL but nice to see you think he starts in A ball. That A ball starting pitching lineup is starting to fill up fast. He didn’t pitch much last year so I have no idea what to expect from him but glad there is buzz out there on how well he is developing. I really liked the Petty pick. There is some reliever risk form what I understand but here’s hoping he ends up with three plus pitches. Always nice to start with that big fastball but those secondary's are the difference makers. That is a nice list. A little surprised at how high some of the new draftees are but I do trust what Seth has to say. It could be a pretty exciting year next year for MiLB pitching and it is nice to see a farm stocked with arms instead of just bats for once.
  15. Dman
    I don't know if I believe in Smeltzer as a starter but I do think he can be a very good bullpen arm. I feel like his fastball has been too hittable and if my memory is correct hit hard. I think if he can get that to play up more in relief and if he can control his secondary's better he could be a force there. A lot of if's to be sure but he has had success in the past and I think with some patience he will again.
  16. Dman

    2022 = Development Year

    Dman commented on Franz's blog entry in Greg Fransen

    Yeah I think I am with you. They need to at least start with some more experienced pitching IMO. I might have a pie in the sky view but I think we can compete while playing some of the younger guys too. Ober and Ryan kept us in games as rookies I think other guys they have can as well. Starting pitching and the pen need a fair bit of work next year to compete. They solve that and I think this team can compete for the division but they need to pitch much, much better than last year. If guys in the minors stay healthy they should have better depth options this year. I don't think this team is that far away so while I wouldn't bring in a ton of guys I also wouldn't just play all the rookie pitchers either. They need to to at least start the season with some experienced pitching. Position player wise you have Buxton and Kepler in the outfield with your choice of Rooker, Larnach, Kirilloff and Celestino in left. One of those guys should be good enough to get the job done. Middle infield is Donaldson, Polanco, Sano with Arraez filling in. They just need to find a Shortstop but should be able to find a stop gap guy somewhere. Catcher is Garver, Rortvedt and Jeffers. Not much is going to change there. Possibly Miranda could fill in somewhere depending on injury and if Lewis starts out hot he could be a guy that helps with his speed and defense. The offense was right around a top ten offense despite the poor play from some rookies and fill in's. I don't think there is too much to worry about there. Pitching needs to improve for the team to improve. Find that and this team is ready to compete IMO.
  17. Dman
    That is some really good info and analysis but the Twins barely out homered them didn't walk as much and K'd significantly more. The Astros also outslugged the Twins by a pretty wide margin with almost 30 more doubles. If you compare teams slugging and OPS they line up pretty well. Average not so much. To cherry pick another team the Royals also had more hits and a better batting average than the Twins but they were 25th in OPS and the Twins 11th. All the top teams had the highest slugging and OPS. The idea is to hit it hard so that your hit is better than a single. Home Runs can't be caught and can make for a nice team batting average just ask the Blue Jays who out homered everyone. But for team results pitching still matters. have to keep the other team off the board too. Every hit is important but when they are in limited supply trying to do as much damage as possible make a lot of sense at least to me.
  18. Dman
    I think the reason is OPS is king right now and if I understand it correctly it comes down to basic math. Even your best hitter is only going to hit .300 so hits are limited no matter how good a hitter you are. All hits are not created equal a HR is better than a triple, triple better than double, double better than single and single sometimes better than a walk. If the only hit you get in an inning is a single you score no runs. If the only hit you get in an inning is a HR then your team scores a run. To me that is the exaggerated example of the power of OPS. With the pitching batters face it is hard to string together hits so hits with greater value like doubles, triples and HR's have a greater chance to score runs as it can take potentially three singles to score a run. The first single in and an inning is equal to a walk there is virtually no difference thus OBP generally is more telling than hitting for average. If you have guy hitting .330 with a .350 OBP it might not be that much different than a guy hitting .250 with a .350 OBP. Yes the single is more powerful because if you have someone on third and walk all you do is setup up the other team for a potential double play and do not score a run. A single in that situation does score a run. Not all singles are created equal though as even with guys on first and second a single might only load the bases depending on where it is hit. Still not making an out is the name of the game for offense and a walk is not an out and it also works the pitcher more as he generally has to throw more pitches. So a batters worth for the most part comes down to his ability to score runs and the ability to score runs goes up for hitters who have greater power. That being said guys like Arraez who hit well and have great eye at the plate are good guys to have as well especially on a team with a lot of power hitters. Martin will be fine as he is, but more power will make him more valuable.
  19. Dman
    I like that you are being bold with Encarnation-Strand. He reminds me of Miranda some in that he seems to be on the ball making contact. It is a very SSS though and his BABIP was 500 so there is likely going to be regression there unless he improves that K rate. It is probably too early to have him at 14 but unless his K rate climbs I think he could climb into the top 5 before he makes the jump to MLB ball. Maybe I am being fooled by the SSS but he has hit those same numbers his entire college career so I think the higher ranking is justified until he proves it isn't. For Wander it could be late bloomer syndrome but he has had professional help for a lot of years now. Personally I wouldn't have him ranked this high and I think MLB dropped him off their list altogether. Never say never to highly athletic players as things can click at any time but given what he has shown to this point it seems pretty unlikely he makes it. I agree Cavaco looked like maybe the top hitter at FT Meyers to start the season but after he was injured was never quite the same. Hopefully time off and a better idea of what he needs to work on will help him. I was glad the Twins were aggressive and gave him A ball starts he needs them. I think next year will be a better year for him. Have to say I was a little bummed with Urbina. I guess I thought he would have a bit better year. FT Meyers was a tough place for hitters all year. I didn't watch him enough to know but looking at the numbers he only has an 18% K rate so he was making contact but given his slugging was 286 it was mainly weak contact. He is young and maybe needs to develop some man muscle but the underlying numbers still look pretty good. He could be a breakout candidate for next year. I have been the low man on Wallner mainly because of the high BABIP and K rate. He kind of looks like fools gold to me. That being said the power is for real and the average speed and plus arm make him a possible Kepler replacement. I hope the eye catches up and helps move the K rate down and then I am onboard with this ranking.
  20. Dman
    I think the Gordon, Celestino analysis is spot on. Lewis and Martin could be options there as well depending on how well they perform to start the year. I know they need\want Lewis at SS so maybe he wouldn't be the greatest option but he could play center if needed. The Twins would have to be hard pressed to add Martin to the 40 man early with all the talent they have coming up but if he is raking and proves he is ready I think they might do it. At any rate both Gordon and Celestino can play a decent center field they just need to up their game with the bat. Here's hoping they both do just that.
  21. Dman
    I don't think Severino is very Miranda like because Miranda is so good at making contact and rarely strikes out. Still Severino had a good year last year with a mini breakout at High A. I thought his K rate was higher but is very much in range at around 30% and his walks are there too so he has an eye at the plate. High A gives hope but he has struggled in the past. I think Martin is the more Miranda comparable as they both have really good bat to ball skills and all Martin needs to do to breakout is add more power. I think the Twins will help him with his hard hit rate and he could have a power breakout this year or next, His K rate is in the 20% range and his walks not far behind at 15%. Not sure he can have Miranda like power next year but suspect it will increase. Of the three he feels like the safest bet. Sabato has a power swing and good eye at the plate. I think it is just a question of if he can hit breaking stuff or not. He made such a poor impression on me to start the season I have lost some faith. Hopefully those High A number are here to stay but I am least bullish on Sabato. Someone you left off this list that you might want to look at is Christian Encarnacion-Strand. It was a SSS but his 1.022 OPS in A ball which was hard on hitters last year make him look a bit Miranda like. His over 500 BABIP is a red flag there but the K rate was only around 30%. Not much for walks either but a third of his hits went for extra bases so when he hits it, he hits it hard. I think he is someone to watch though.
  22. Dman
    This Twins MiLB season is going to must watch for the pitching rotation in all four Affiliates. In AAA it could be Winder, Sands, Balazovich, Strotman and Jax with Smeltzer and maybe Duran as well depending on where they want to start him. That is a rotation 7 men deep and each one a possible future starter for the MLB club. AA has Canterino, SWR, Varland, Vallimont, Gross, Funderburk and Schulfer which is another nice group. Canterino, Balazovich and Duran could end up at AA or AAA really hard to say and I guess it would depend on where they need guys and whether any of Winder, Sands, Strotman, Jax or Smeltzer impress enough to start with the MLB club. Still it is a nice group of arms. If serious arm issues hadn't hit Enlow and Rio they would likely be in the conversation with the AA group as well. At High A we have Gipson-Long, Mooney, Laweryson, Headrick and Legumina. Maybe not quite as much upside on those last three but still a solid group. Varland could start out at High A depending on how things shake out above but I am still Sticking Louie at AA for now given his complete domination at High A. Finally at A ball we get a chance to see Hajjer, Povich, Mcleod and Adams who were selected in the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th rounds. 5 pitchers in the first 6 rounds if you include 1st round pick Petty who I presume will spend his time in the FCL working on pitches and building endurance for full season ball in 2023. I can't remember the Twins picking that many pitchers that high in a long, long time. Grace, Hanner, Leach. Stankiewicz and maybe Escobar could also join that group depending on how they look this spring. If Escobar stays in SS ball the FCL pitchers look promising as well with Petty, Raya, Escobar, Rimmel, and maybe Yabbour. So Lot's of promising arms to watch in the MiLB season this year. Let's hope there are fewer injuries so that we can watch all these guys develop.
  23. Dman
    He looks like a future DH to me. It just depends on how much you want to spend on a DH. When he is on he is scary in the batters box and pitchers try to pitch around him or get him to chase. When he is off he is an easy K. If he OPS's in the high 800 to 900 area it is going to be hard to let a bat like that go. If he has another year like last year the Twins won't have much choice but to let him walk. No one is going to want to pay 14M for an inconsistent DH so trading him is going to be tough sledding IMO.
  24. Dman
    I think Morales will be done being a sleeper candidate after this season. Really solid line and having a good eye at the plate just helps a hitter get better pitches to hit or at least get on base. He is pretty small and looks a little funny at the plate to me but his results speak for themselves and barring injury I expect really good things for him in the future. Still not sure what to think about Isola. I was pretty excited when he found his power stroke last year and he too seems to have a pretty good eye at the plate. He could stand to make a bit more contact IMO but he has a chance. I will be watching him closely this year. Camargo has a powerful swing but that K rate is pretty painful. To be honest I just don't see him making it but he is young and things can change. To me of the three catchers he is the least likely to get there but hey most MLB catchers don't hit all that well so having a power stroke benefits him as if he gets a hold of a pitch it it likely out of the park. Agree with OP that he has lot's to work on but he also has time on his side for now. Too small a sample size to know much about Soularie just yet. I just hope the bat is as advertised. Fort Meyers was tough on bats last year with pretty much any hitter making it out of there doing much better at High A in Cedar Rapids. While he has the Hard Hit Rate the Twins FO loves I still don't know if his hit tool is going to be good enough at the higher levels. He was money at High A though so maybe he is ready to break through hard to say. I will say I would be very surprised if a team took him in Rule V. He is no Baddoo IMO. It feels like he has a ways to go but I hope he makes it.
  25. Dman
    There certainly is more risk with Byron than most players just based on his injury history. Still the way he looked last year I think that is risk that needs to be taken on. The fact he was willing to do an incentive laden contract means he absolutely believes in himself but even if he has a down year or two or three the Twins won't be paying 20 to 30 million for those years. 15 Million isn't chump change for this organization but Byron can be a top 10 player in the game and those types of players are very, very hard to find. I am a risk averse person but even I am ok with this deal. I don't often and maybe never have said this about a player but as a fan I really appreciated the way Byron handled his contract situation. He always said he wanted to stay and never complained about his service time manipulation or how negotiations were going. He bent his negotiating power to allow for an incentive laden contract all while keeping a great attitude. I just want to say thank you as a fan because I have cheered Byron on since MiLB ball. When he has played I have loved watching what he can do and I am very happy he will be a Twin through his prime. Honestly, I don't think he will disappoint us.
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