Dman

Nice analysis and I agree. Still I have my doubts about them starting with Larnach. I don't know the extent of Rookers injury but have to believe they would like a right handed power bat in there. Also Larnach never did spend much time at AAA and IMO he could use the consistent at bats to start the season. If they need another guy for the outfield they can use Gordon in a pinch. His arm and speed play in all three spots although his bat is a serious downgrade in all three spots. If there was a way to ensure Larnach saw more playing time at the MLB level I think he would be the pick but I don't think you want a guy who was struggling with breaking balls to likely sit more than play everyday.

Honestly the rotation doesn't look much better than last year but hopefully this time the young reinforcements are not injured and are there to be used this year (Winder, Balazovich, Henriquez, Sands, Duran and Strotman are likely all in AAA to start and just a phone call away if things go south). So if guys stay healthy we should have replacement options, however, hard to say how those young guns will do at the MLB level. Given Falvey's statement that they are likely done adding, buckle up it is going to be an interesting ride this year as we find out what kind of team we have.

I think your bullpen is spot on but I would flip the order some. First I think you are correct that Jhoan Duran does not make the team out of camp. I think they try and get him in an established lower pressure routine at AAA. Make sure he can build on some success there and if he does then he seems most likely the first guy they call up. I think Jhon Romero is an interesting pickup. I wish someone on the board could dig up more info on him. While it was just one spring training appearance he only threw 15 pitches, 13 were strikes and 2 balls, well technically 3 balls but the guy still swung at it and K'd. So this is a guy that really challenges hitters and dares them to hit his stuff. It doesn't appear that worked out as well at the MLB level. I wish I could have watched him pitch to see how he looks out there and the quality of his stuff. At any rate he impressed me stat wise in his first outing. Some shaky Starts still with Stashak and I would flip him with Jax at this point. What made Cody's stuff so good was his control. I don't know if not having the sticky stuff has really impacted him or what the deal is but I have him borderline off the 40 man as he looks like the weakest link to this point. I think he has an elite slider but with no elite fastball he needs that pinpoint control he used to have. To this point Cotton does not look like his control has improved but he has the pitches and the ability to go more than one inning. Here is hoping he can put it all together for the Twins. I really think the pen could be good this year and if a few of these guys fail then there should be AAA options they can use the first of which might be Duran.

Yeah I thought some bottom feeder would at least give him a chance but honestly his stuff isn't all that much better than most teams AAAA lefties. With no great fastball velocity and a pretty poor record against elite competition I guess it shouldn't be too surprising no one wanted to handcuff their 40 man with someone like that. I am glad the Twins don't have to carry him on the 40 man anymore and if does well at AAA he can still get another chance. It just kind of feels like maybe he has peaked and without the velocity we thought he was going to have. I believe he was throwing 95 when younger. Not consistently but he could when he needed to. Maybe he can reinvent himself in a bullpen role yet will have to wait and see I guess.

I think Beane can do well hanging onto Montas and Manea until the deadline. Still there is risk there. If one or both get hurt or don't have a good first half he will have lost a ton of value for both players. He does have the advantage of that Oakland park suppressing home runs but still he could end up getting nothing in the end. Will be interesting to see how it turns out.

Can't say I am overly excited but I guess they needed to do something. I think this is what most of us thought would happen when Oakland didn't make a deal with anyone. Unless he has some success this feels like a place holder for the pitchers at AAA to prove which one gets the first shot at a rotation role.

While I agree with the OP that it would be better to have a front of the rotation type starter instead of needing Winder for that spot, I don't think that means Winder can't be a solution. The AAA numbers could be a bit misleading as he was struck by a ball in the neck and never was quite the same pitcher after that, eventually ending his season with a sore\tired arm. The thing that is different about Winder compared to some of the other pitchers mentioned is that his fastball is right around 95mph the WHIP and K rate have been solid all the way up. While he could definitely use more AAA seasoning all the numbers appear to point to him being successful at the MLB level. Moving to MLB is a very tough transition as noted in the article, Berrios being a prime example. Still you have to give guys a chance to know what they can do. Just like Berrios, Winder looks like he has the pitches to make it. How that translates in his first few starts is hard to say but he has the stuff to make it. Again to the OP's point we already have a rotation of young arms in Ober, and Ryan adding Winder would mean 3/5th's of the rotation would be fairly inexperienced arms. Personally I don't trust Bundy's under 90 fastballs to be effective making the only fairly reliable starter Sonny Gray. It is not a great position to be in and yet here we are. Still the Twins have a number of near ready MLB arms in Winder, Canterino, Balazovich, Henriquez, Sands, Strotman, Duran. With more guys needing to be added to the 40 man next year in SWR, Varland, SGL, Mooney and possibly others. The Twins do need to find out what they have because they can't keep them all. Hopefully rotating some of these guys through they can get better feel for what they have or don't have. Would I still like to see a front of the rotation arm like Montas sure but I think the Twins might be just fine leaving things the way they are.

I agree with the you about the 28 man Roster, it will allow the Twins to essentially have a bullpen game once a week as the 5th starter. Once they have to go back to 26 then hopefully someone has established themselves enough as a 5th starter. At the deadline or maybe slightly before the deadline they can make a trade if needed for more depth as well. Will be interesting to see what there approach ends up being.

I really, really like Brandon Barriera. If there isn't a really good hitter at number 8 I would love to see him as the Twins pick. Still I think the Twins will go with a bat although they have been doing the unexpected recently.

I was wondering about this. Thanks for bursting the bubble. Do the Twins just role with the young guys to start the season and wait for the trade deadline to add? Or is there another trading partner out there besides Oakland?

Looks like Oakland hasn't found a deal they like for Manea or Montas and the Twins are kind of an arm short at the top of the rotation. The four young pitchers we have that seem most likely to succeed at the MLB level would be in order Winder, Canterino, and maybe Balazovich and the new guy Henriquez. I say Maybe to Balazovich because of his control issues last year as his WHIP seems to high to move to MLB right now. I say Maybe to Henriquez as he looks good to go with a solid K rate and good WHIP but he has been homer prone and that only gets tougher to suppress at the MLB level. I wish there were some better options than Cueto to get out there as it looks pretty risky to go with the young guys. So far I am not a believer in Strotman or Sands as they have been too hittable and I like Durans arm but still see him as a pen arm. Maybe he proves me wrong but he hasn't been truly dominant at any level above A ball IMO. So hard to bank on him doing it at the MLB level right out of the gates. The dark horse here not mentioned is Smeltzer. He has looked good this spring so far and if I were the Twins I would have him starting spring games while the good hitters from the other team are in and see how he does. While I don't love crafty lefties he has had success before he started giving up tons of HR's. He is not on the 40 man but might need to be the Dobnak replacement unless the Twins can find something better on the FA market. I honestly feel like Winder is ready for the MLB challenge and that he could be successful right away. He could be the Twins Montas of the future. Still rookie pitchers generally have a tough time adjusting to just how perfect they have to be against MLB hitters. Experience takes time so it is hard to say how he might do at first. Spring training isn't over yet and I would guess the Twins have a move or two left so I will hope for the best.

Hoping Urshea rebounds otherwise that trade looks worse than it already is. I have my doubts about him rebounding but will have to wait and see. Arraez is a nice backup plan to have though and giving Miranda time to make sure he is who he is isn't a bad idea when trying to win games early in the year. Third base looks like it is in OK shape even with Donaldson gone.

Love these updates. Thanks!

Yeah if Correa has the monster year he plans on having he won't have much choice but to leave as the Twins won't likely do a 7 to 10 year deal at 35M or so. Especially with Royce in the wings. Maybe if Correa has a down year and the market looks weak he might be here another year but it seems unlikely. While he hasn't played here yet it was nice to hear that former players think Minnesota's FO and Manager make it a good place to play. It looks like that is something that mattered to Correa although I am sure the way the deal was structured had a larger impact. Still it was nice to hear.

While Spring training (this year even more than others) the SSS don't mean much, it still can be barometer for how ready guys are. I know guys are just building up especially the first few weeks and I suspect since Spring training is only going to be a few weeks some players won't quite be ready for the start of season. There will be some spring training that moves into the regular season so to speak. Still I was hoping to see Sands, Vallimont and Strotman perform better than they did in their first chances this spring. It doesn't mean they can't have great season's yet but it does seem to indicate they are not ready as well. Then you kind of have the surprise soft tosser lefties in Thorpe and Smeltzer who have looked good in their first few chances. Even the always over looked lefty Bryan Sammons had a clean inning of spring work. Yes these are miniscule sample sizes but they still tend to make you feel good or bad about a players progress. Still some spring training left and lot's of season left. Just really, really hoping that pitching pipeline actually spits out a few good arms that can help the big club this year.

They have been pretty opposed to putting Rooker at 1st base. Not sure why, but I guess his defense or glove are not good there? Still if they will let Sano play there I think Rooker would have to be an option. I agree with you that if Miranda continues to hit at AAA he will be the first one called for an infield spot. Still I think both would work for depth at 1st base.

I think they could put Rooker there. He can't be any worse than Sano. They might be able to put Urshela or Miranda there in a pinch. Too your point there isn't much in the System for first base right now. I assume that is why they brought in Curtis Terry at AAA for depth as well just in case things go south.

Very nice MiLB stats last year but I fail to see how they are going to manage to keep him on the 40 man unless they remove Stashak or Thorpe. If they are signing Cueto and they trade for a pitcher or get any other relief help it seems like Jhon would be the first to go and I doubt he clears waivers with those numbers.

I am interested in the 5 tool players first and then up the middle players with good hit tools. I doubt any of those fall to the Twins at number 8. After that I think the Twins will go for a bat first player at number 8. They could likely choose the best pitcher in the draft unless the Cubs beat them to it. Still I think the Twins stick to their MO of Bats early pitchers later. There are a number of solid bats in the first round and they will likely take a bat in the second round as the pitching crop doesn't look as strong this year.

I would be willing to reverse the Berrios trade giving them Martin and SWR and throw in someone like Strotman, Vallimont or Henriquez all of whom we acquired in trade. I could maybe see Martin and Balazovich but that would hurt some. I can't see moving Lewis, MIranda, or Ryan as they are pretty important to keeping the team young with years of control and all three look like difference makers to me.

Yeah I have to say I was really surprised by the Seager signing. He has an injury history as well. Texas must have liked something there and over payed to make sure they got him early in the process. Maybe the Dodgers were willing to go 300M and Texas needed to top it to get him? Still will be interesting to see how that plays out for Texas as it seems like a big risk to me. Then again I thought the Tatis signing was likely pretty solid and he has been hurt a fair bit too. Maybe sometimes you just have to take that leap and hope for the best?

Yeah this a classic Beane strategy. Just keep waiting and put pressure on teams to up the Ante. I am not huge believer in huge overpays for two years. I think the Pirates are the biggest example of how that can kill your team and FO and force an automatic rebuild. I think the Berrios deal is a good precedent for value in the case of Montas. Two guys in the top 10 of the Jays system and then I would guess a little bit more than that considering Montas has two years left versus 1.5. So maybe a young throw in. Honestly I would be fine if the Twins did that deal in reverse. Give the A's Marin, SWR, and throw in someone like Rosario, or Severino. If they want more pitching throw in Strotman or the recently acquired Henriquez. Players I would not want to give up would be Winder as he could be Montas in a few years with more years of control. Lewis who is the only player we have left who might be able to play short and MIranda who is likely our future 3rd baseman with a great hit tool. While I wouldn't love trading Balazovich, Canterino or Duran I could see parting with one of them if offer was right.

Backs can flair up at any time but the fact that he was healthy all last season and is under 30 I don't see it as a "huge" risk for what the Twins signed on for. Remember any player can get hurt at any time and miss most of a season. Correa has a lot to play for this year so odds are he will be keeping himself in tip top shape and work to mitigate his injury risk. The potential downside of the Correa deal seem limited based on the opt outs and length of the deal IMO. I can see however, where that back issue coupled with the fact that he isn't exactly fast for the SS position had teams somewhat scared off doing a long term deal. He wants up the middle money but it seems unlikely he will play there through the length of that contract. So he needs to stay healthy and have another good year to put those worries about him to rest. Correa could still get seriously injured and this could end up a bad deal. That is certainly one of the many potential outcomes but as a team\FO you take on risk with every contract from Dobnak to Buxton to Correa. To field a good team you have to take on some risk. Every team does. The Twins have an All-Star player very motivated to get a long term contact so I think this was a worthwhile risk for them to take. Even if this deal does go sideways you can't blame the FO for being aggressive and trying to compete this year.

Yeah I am wondering if the Twins are going to need to Zag on Montas. I can't imagine what the hold up is on Oaklands end. Either they aren't getting the return they want for Montas or teams keep trying to outdo each other to grab him. If the bidding is getting high might be time to go with Manea unless of course they are making it a package deal. There must be other teams out there that the Twins could deal with if the Oakland deal falls through. Like I said I don't know what the holdup is. Billy has traded everyone else except the two pitchers that multiple teams are interested in. Thorpe with 4 K's in his first two innings of work. Did anyone get a chance to see how he looked? I know it is small samples size and he was facing the equivalent of AAA starters but still that looked like a nice outing. While I don't have a ton of faith I am pulling for him. Still shocked the Twins managed to get Correa so who knows what else they might be able to do.

Yeah I think given Correa's history with Houston 5/160 didn't sit well at least if that was the final offer. After seeing 10\300 for similar level players that would be selling himself short IMO. With the Twins deal he falls in line to maintain that 30M per year AAV and with the opt outs if he has a tough year next year or gets injured he is still getting 100M with chances every year to opt out and try for a longer term deal. This is a sweetheart deal for Correa and probably hard for other teams to match because of the opt outs. Hard to plan for the future when the next year the player might be gone. While it is not an ideal contract situation for the Twins it covers their main point of risk. Don't do long term High AAV contracts as it kills payroll flexibility especially in the end of deal dead years. It gives this years team a much better chance to compete with a player motivated to have his best season. It gives this team time to see what they have in younger players. If Correa does have some weird career ending injury they only have this deal for a few years while their core is pretty young. It seems like a deal very few teams could live with but for the Twins it gives them a chance to do something special this year. Lots of baseball to played and winning the offseason means nothing but this signing sure generates excitement and gives us hope for a good year this year.